Political Posts

[lnofeisone]

20 minutes ago, Surya said:

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/27/how-the-united-states-handed-china-its-rare-earth-monopoly/

China has the largest extraction capability but they also have the largest reserves. 20x of what US has (on average across all rare earths) Sure, a lot of extraction IP and tech went to China, but it was only a matter of time before they would dominate. In fact, having them export as much as they can makes everyone else's resources more valuable. 

[UK]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-27/putin-plays-down-nuclear-threat-in-ukraine-as-he-lambasts-us

 

Even as Russian troops have suffered a series of recent defeats against Ukrainian forces, Putin said his plan for what he calls his “special military operation” remained to ensure the security of Kremlin-backed separatists in the eastern Donbas region. He made no mention of the sweeping goals of “de-Nazification” and “de-militarization” that he’d cited at the start of the invasion, when Russia failed in a lightning attempt to seize Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv.
Putin, whose public statements of his goals for the war have shifted in the months since he dispatched troops, didn’t explain the apparent omission. He described the neighboring regions of Ukraine that Russia illegally annexed last month as part of a historic ‘Novorossiya’ territory. His comments came in response to a question from the host of the Valdai event, foreign policy analyst Fyodor Lukyanov, who noted that “society doesn’t really understand what the plan is.” As Putin spoke, the independent Levada Center released a poll showing that for the first time, a majority of Russians now support talks to end the war, rather than continuing the invasion. 

[UK]

Xi is sending a letter: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-31/blinken-speaks-with-china-s-top-diplomat-in-latest-sign-of-thaw?srnd=premium-europe

 

But US is sending back B-52: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-31/us-building-facility-to-base-b-52-bombers-in-australia-abc-says

[LongHaul]

On 10/27/2022 at 4:36 PM, beerbaron said:

This paper suggests that China's GDP could be more than half of it's reported size. I would be interested to hear what you guys think and how to see if peer reviews agree with this paper.

 

https://bfi.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/BFI_WP_2021-78.pdf

 

Here is a quick youtube video for those too lazy to read:

 

BeerBaron

I did not read the paper but Totally agree with the premise.

The Chinese government has likely been lying about China's GDP growth for 10+ years.  

Apparently GDP doesn't even add up from the regional to national level.  

Compound out 10+ years of inflated GDP and it is probably a very big number.   

 

I think I read that China is lying about the size of their population also.  

 

That would make the real estate problem much, much worse in China. 

 

There was an analysis of lights and GDP and dictators generally claim their GDP is higher than reality

for various reasons. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Spekulatius]

LOL, feels like twilight zone:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/31/shanghai-disney-shuts-over-covid-visitors-unable-to-leave.html

[Gregmal]

45 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

LOL, feels like twilight zone:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/31/shanghai-disney-shuts-over-covid-visitors-unable-to-leave.html

What’s funny is that a year ago, this was California and NY. 

[Spekulatius]

46 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

What’s funny is that a year ago, this was California and NY. 

Not even close, because you could leave.

[sleepydragon]

16 hours ago, Surya said:

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/27/how-the-united-states-handed-china-its-rare-earth-monopoly/

rare earth is not rare at all. It’s everywhere. American stopped mining it because it’s too cheap and labor is too costly.

 

this is like saying American has a monopoly on coal mining — it’s not like this is a easy and money making nice job.

 

[Spekulatius]

17 minutes ago, sleepydragon said:

rare earth is not rare at all. It’s everywhere. American stopped mining it because it’s too cheap and labor is too costly.

 

this is like saying American has a monopoly on coal mining — it’s not like this is a easy and money making nice job.

 

Exactly - the rare earth metals are actually quite abundant in the earth crust. I bet there are better deposits than the Chinese have - we just need to develop them.

 

The Chinese were just the first to recognize the importance and put effort in developing those mines. 

[maxthetrade]

35 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

The Chinese were just the first to recognize the importance and put effort in developing those mines. 

 

I'd rather say the chinese were the most willing to pollute their environment and hence the cheapest place to do rare earth mining. It's a very dirty process producing lots of toxic waste, about 2000 tons of toxic waste for every ton of rare earth. 

[UK]

5 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

LOL, feels like twilight zone:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/31/shanghai-disney-shuts-over-covid-visitors-unable-to-leave.html

 

"The theme park continued to operate rides for visitors stuck in the park during the closure on Monday, social media users reported."

 

Whats not to like:)?

[james22]

A couple friends of mine were caught on business trips when Covid began and spent several months in luxury hotels living on room service and by the pool. Ha.

[Castanza]

On 10/30/2022 at 3:37 PM, no_free_lunch said:

I can respect wanting to avoid war.  Concerns about the growth of the military industrial complex.  Suspicion around the US motives.  I get it.

 

However, this is a real war and it was started by Russia.  It's not a game.  It's the first country annexed in Europe since ww2, as I understand.  It's also right on Europe's doorstep and by a former and still formidable superpower.   Whatever you do here, China is watching and will react accordingly. Maybe the time for navel gazing is after you contain the threat.

 

I am going to repeat a few of my prior points because I don't feel they were addressed by all the bluster.

 

Finland and Sweden opted to join NATO.  They avoided this all through the cold war and just now decided to do it.  Clearly this isn't them being snow flakes and virtue signaling.  It's a true tell.

 

The US influence on the rest of the world is bad but yet the US is flocked with migrants. It's where people want to live.  I get that we can't make people accept the US way of life but yet they sure seem to want it and I quesion therefore just how evil they really are.

 

Finally, if you want to compare the Ukraine to Rawanda.  Ukraine WANTS the western system.  Yeah they will reject some of the more modern social concepts, for sure, but they want the system.  It will take generations to overcome the corruption but they are willing, so it's not at all the same as the US forcing it's will on these people.

 

That stuff from Xerxes, I suspect it's intended to frame the west but I see Putin giving the pre war speech from the balcony.  You can even dig it up online if you have a few minutes.

 

Why is this a problem of the US? Let Europe handle it. We didn't get involved in or send aid or weapons during the French Revolution or the Napoleonic Wars. This really isn't much different. Arguable even more advantageous to us because Russia isn't relevant to our economy and we won't have to make the decision of trade partner. The last thing we should be doing is spending massive amount of money on another war and exhausting our own resources. I can get behind some spending because the consequences can be contained/identified to an extent. However I am very much against un-checked spending with no end in sight which is what we have now. 

 

Non-interventionism is a core tenant of US history and our Constitution. It's served us well in the past and would serve us well now. 

[Viking]

58 minutes ago, Castanza said:

 

Why is this a problem of the US? Let Europe handle it. We didn't get involved in or send aid or weapons during the French Revolution or the Napoleonic Wars. This really isn't much different. Arguable even more advantageous to us because Russia isn't relevant to our economy and we won't have to make the decision of trade partner. The last thing we should be doing is spending massive amount of money on another war and exhausting our own resources. I can get behind some spending because the consequences can be contained/identified to an extent. However I am very much against un-checked spending with no end in sight which is what we have now. 

 

Non-interventionism is a core tenant of US history and our Constitution. It's served us well in the past and would serve us well now. 

@Castanza  i do not understand this comment: “Non-interventionism is a core tenant of US history”.

 

Since WWII, the US has been very involved in pretty much every part of the globe. Countries with open economies are very good for US business interests.
 

China and Russia have just decided it is time for dictatorships to take their rightful place in the world. I am nor sure that this is a great time for the US and US businesses for the US to become isolationist (like pre WW1). 

[Castanza]

1 hour ago, Viking said:

@Castanza  i do not understand this comment: “Non-interventionism is a core tenant of US history”.

 

Since WWII, the US has been very involved in pretty much every part of the globe. Countries with open economies are very good for US business interests.
 

China and Russia have just decided it is time for dictatorships to take their rightful place in the world. I am nor sure that this is a great time for the US and US businesses for the US to become isolationist (like pre WW1). 

Haha should have said “was”. But yeah post WWII much of it went out the window with the military industrial complex latching on to politicians. Only gotten worse since then.  
 

Non-interventionism is not isolationism. It doesn’t isolate on the economic side of things but adheres  to not getting involved in foreign affairs. Example “Treaty of Tripoli”. Two very different things with very different long term outcomes.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-interventionism

 

Lets go revisit what Kennedy said after the Cuban Missile Crisis. 
 

“My God what did we almost do?!”

 

“While defending our vital interests, we must avert confrontations that force an adversary to choose between humiliating defeat and nuclear war.” 

[Xerxes]

I always enjoy listening to the good Admiral whether on Bloomberg or elsewhere (though less interested to buy his fiction book). This is an incredible episode on his time in service as a sailor and a Navy admiral, the war in Ukraine, him being in the pentagon when 9-11 happened. Worth listening. 
 

There is a book he very highly recommended called “Chip wars” written by an SME. I also saw a review on it in The Economist. I think I would be buying.  
 

[Xerxes]

4 hours ago, Viking said:

@Castanza  i do not understand this comment: “Non-interventionism is a core tenant of US history”.

 

Since WWII, the US has been very involved in pretty much every part of the globe. Countries with open economies are very good for US business interests.
 

China and Russia have just decided it is time for dictatorships to take their rightful place in the world. I am nor sure that this is a great time for the US and US businesses for the US to become isolationist (like pre WW1). 

I think you mean pre-WW2. Notwithstanding the Wilsononian involvement in the First World War. 
 

On “China and Russia JUST deciding” I am not sure where you guys get this stuff. This is not 2022 news. China was once a great power, before the Opuim wars and before its humiliation by the Europeans. We may have short memory, but history remembers. 
 

That great power vision may collide with our more liberal vision of world. But it does not mean they JUST decided something. 

 

It is worth re-reading the first paragraph on one Daniel Yergin’ lesser known books: “The Commanding Heights”, shown below. 

 

This first paragraph speaks volume of Deng Xiaoping resiliency, him setting the stage and that of the current paramount leader that will now see that vision through. 
 

“Hide your strength and bide your time” Deng Xiaoping said at the time. Now comes the next step …

 

[UK]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/29/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-artillery.html#:~:text=Turning the Tables%3A With powerful,Russia's hold in the territory.

 

Sitting in front of his screens, he pinpoints tanks, barracks or other military objects and relays coordinates to artillery teams firing satellite guided shells, which hit within a yard or two of their intended targets. “From a typical howitzer, you create a sniper rifle,” he said of the combination of drone surveillance and satellite guided artillery shells, something Russia lacks. “One shot, one kill.” The partial destruction of bridges over the broad Dnipro River through the summer slowed Russia’s movement of heavy equipment to the river’s western bank, even as Western weaponry helped Ukraine whittle away at what was already there. The combination cost Russia its artillery advantage on the river’s western bank. “Think of the orcs in their trenches,” Lieutenant Oleh said, using a derisive term for Russian soldiers. “They have no heavy weaponry, no supplies, it’s cold and raining. It’s a really difficult state for morale.”

[no_free_lunch]

On 11/1/2022 at 1:47 PM, Castanza said:

 

Why is this a problem of the US? Let Europe handle it. We didn't get involved in or send aid or weapons during the French Revolution or the Napoleonic Wars. This really isn't much different. Arguable even more advantageous to us because Russia isn't relevant to our economy and we won't have to make the decision of trade partner. The last thing we should be doing is spending massive amount of money on another war and exhausting our own resources. I can get behind some spending because the consequences can be contained/identified to an extent. However I am very much against un-checked spending with no end in sight which is what we have now. 

 

Non-interventionism is a core tenant of US history and our Constitution. It's served us well in the past and would serve us well now. 

 

I don't think you are exhausting your resources at all.   A lot of that stuff going to Ukraine, is older tech from what I understand.  From what i can see the US is using this as a way to build up the MIC, in preparation for war with China.  This seems the rough equivalent of Cash and carry at the beginning of WW2 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cash_and_carry_(World_War_II) .  I know it's different, the US is donating now but the point is it's a way for them to get the weapons flowing and production started before the actual war begins.

 

I guess you have to make the call but I believe that if you (the US) stand down the various evil empires of the world will be emboldened.  Cliche but it's true.  Remember that before the invasion of Ukraine, non interventionists scoffed at the idea that a nation state would launch a full scale assault on another but now it has happened.   If you do nothing, you risk losing your various allies one by one and you will end up with a much larger rival or set of rivals that you won't be able to take on.

 

I think Viking also brings up a good point regarding US foreign investment.  I wonder how often the US has used it's advantage militarily to gain favorable trade deals over seas and squish down their rivals.  Here in Canada we always hear about how the Avro arrow back in the 60s got shut down despite being way ahead of it's time on the "advice" of the US.  We had good relations with the US too, we got the relative good end of the stick.  I think a lot of that will get rolled back, a lot of US owned foreign domiciled resources will simply be repatriated, trade deals renegotiated, US cloud providers can be blocked, etc.   The winner makes the rules.

Edited November 3, 2022 by no_free_lunch

[cubsfan]

8 hours ago, no_free_lunch said:

 

 

I guess you have to make the call but I believe that if you (the US) stand down the various evil empires of the world will be emboldened.  Cliche but it's true.  Remember that before the invasion of Ukraine, non interventionists scoffed at the idea that a nation state would launch a full scale assault on another but now it has happened.   If you do nothing, you risk losing your various allies one by one and you will end up with a much larger rival or set of rivals that you won't be able to take on.

 

 

 

This is why you need to stop them. 

[UK]

https://www.ft.com/content/6ca9a470-59ee-4809-8a5b-35f6073c9907

 

Ottawa has ordered three Chinese groups to divest their stakes in Canadian critical mineral companies after a defence and intelligence review concluded that the investments posed a threat to national security.
In a move that reflected a significant hardening of Canada’s stance towards China, the government ordered Sinomine (Hong Kong) Rare Metals Resources to exit its stake in Power Metals, a Canadian lithium miner.
Ottawa also instructed Chengze Lithium International to divest its stake in Lithium Chile and told Zangge Mining Investment (Chengdu) to unwind its investment in Ultra Lithium, another Canadian resource developer.
Industry minister François-Philippe Champagne said Canada welcomed foreign direct investment from companies that “share our interests and values(opens a new window)” but would “act decisively when investments threaten our national security and our critical minerals supply chains”.

[Xerxes]

10 hours ago, no_free_lunch said:

 

 

I guess you have to make the call but I believe that if you (the US) stand down the various evil empires of the world will be emboldened.  Cliche but it's true.  Remember that before the invasion of Ukraine, non interventionists scoffed at the idea that a nation state would launch a full scale assault on another but now it has happened.   If you do nothing, you risk losing your various allies one by one and you will end up with a much larger rival or set of rivals that you won't be able to take on.

 

what you mean is “a nation state would launch a full scale assault on another state, POPULATED BY WHITE PEOPLE”

 

Anybody (even folks who don’t follow this stuff) can do a quick Google search. 
 

The list does not include “proxy” and “hybrid like war”
 

 

Edited November 3, 2022 by Xerxes

[Suri22]

On 10/31/2022 at 1:39 PM, sleepydragon said:

rare earth is not rare at all. It’s everywhere. American stopped mining it because it’s too cheap and labor is too costly.

 

this is like saying American has a monopoly on coal mining — it’s not like this is a easy and money making nice job.

 

 

you are right that they are abundance of availability  , what makes  china monopoly is the refining process and refinery  , which is very hard  to process which took china to eventually build that in last 20 years 

[Suri22]

 

[maplevalue]