Political Posts

[wristband]

Yes, to echo Spek's compliment...Michael Clark's analysis on Sky News is well worth seeking out.  You can access Sky for free on Pluto (available through streaming platforms and devices like YouTube TV or Roku).  Plus, Sky's reporters on site are very good and well informed.

 

They lack/avoid the rapid fire pace of US networks which allot 30-45 seconds to a "live" report alongside superficial analyses by generalists (pun intended). 

 

[SharperDingaan]

The war crime thing enables possibilities

When Putin doesn't show It generates an international arrest warrant. It also generates a UN prosecution, and humanitarian possibilities, that can be enforced by UN members and not NATO.

 

Everything from an extraction of Putin himself, through to 'enforced' evacuation routes; by land, air, and sea.

Blue helmets shepherding people out under protection of the participating UN armed forces; fire on them, and you lose your artillery &/or missile launch sites. 

 

SD

[CGJB]

End game?

 

At a minimum, the two breakaway Donbass Republics will provide Russia with a land bridge to Crimea. They may even become part of Russia at some point. No way is Ukraine ever getting them or Crimea back.

[Spekulatius]

32 minutes ago, CGJB said:

End game?

 

At a minimum, the two breakaway Donbass Republics will provide Russia with a land bridge to Crimea. They may even become part of Russia at some point. No way is Ukraine ever getting them or Crimea back.

Donbas is not a given for Putin. If it comes to a point where the people there can vote on this, overseen by the UN,  I think they would vote to remain in Ukraine. It all depends on how the next stage of the war turns out.

Crimean likely remains Russian, no matter what.

[Spekulatius]

So it looks like Finland may well join NATO , as was contemplated here. Sweden is much more hesitant, which is explainable given their location (no land borders with Russia).

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/why-putin-faces-more-nato-arctic-after-ukraine-invasion-2022-04-04/

 

 

• Summary

• Finnish President asked NATO chief how to join; Sweden more hesitant
• NATO sees both countries as partners
• Living memories of war kept Finns on alert, Swedes less prepared
• Finnish politicians tour NATO capitals to gauge support
• Moscow has threatened "serious consequences" if countries join

BARDUFOSS, Norway, April 4 (Reuters) - The sound of gunfire echoed around the Norwegian fjords as a row of Swedish and Finnish soldiers, positioned prone behind banks of snow, trained rifles and missile launchers on nearby hills ready for an enemy attack.

The drill, in March, was the first time forces from Finland and Sweden have formed a combined brigade in a scheduled NATO exercise in Arctic Norway known as "Cold Response." Neither country is a member of the NATO alliance. The exercise was long planned, but Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24 added intensity to the war game.

 

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"We would be rather naive not to recognise that there is a threat," Swedish Major Stefan Nordstrom told Reuters. "The security situation in the whole of Europe has changed and we have to accept that, and we have to adapt."

That sense of threat means President Vladimir Putin, who embarked on what he calls a "special operation" in Ukraine partly to counter the expansion of the NATO alliance, may soon have a new NATO neighbour.

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Finland has a 1,300 km (810 mile) border with Russia. In a March 28 phone call, the country's President Sauli Niinisto asked NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg for details on principles and steps for accepting new members, he wrote on Facebook. Finland's leaders have discussed possible membership with "almost all" NATO's 30 members, and will submit a review to parliament by mid-April, Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto told Reuters.

[lnofeisone]

Interesting read - https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/ukraine/2022/04/russia-cannot-afford-to-lose-so-we-need-a-kind-of-a-victory-sergey-karaganov-on-what-putin-wants

 

Aformer presidential adviser to both Boris Yeltsin and Vladimir Putin, Sergey Karaganov is honorary chair of the Moscow think tank the Council for Foreign and Defence Policy. He is associated with a number of key ideas in Russian foreign policy, from the so-called Karaganov doctrine on the rights of ethnic Russians living abroad to the principle of “constructive destruction”, also known as the “Putin doctrine”. Karaganov is close to both Putin and his foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, and he formulated many of the ideas that led to the war in Ukraine – though he has also expressed disagreement with the idea of a long-term occupation of the country.

[Spekulatius]

33 minutes ago, lnofeisone said:

Interesting read - https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/ukraine/2022/04/russia-cannot-afford-to-lose-so-we-need-a-kind-of-a-victory-sergey-karaganov-on-what-putin-wants

 

Aformer presidential adviser to both Boris Yeltsin and Vladimir Putin, Sergey Karaganov is honorary chair of the Moscow think tank the Council for Foreign and Defence Policy. He is associated with a number of key ideas in Russian foreign policy, from the so-called Karaganov doctrine on the rights of ethnic Russians living abroad to the principle of “constructive destruction”, also known as the “Putin doctrine”. Karaganov is close to both Putin and his foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, and he formulated many of the ideas that led to the war in Ukraine – though he has also expressed disagreement with the idea of a long-term occupation of the country.

This guy seems delusional. Just because you need a victory doesn’t need doesn’t mean you get one. NATO Article 5 isn’t worthless either, hopefully they don’t think so at the Kremlin.

Edited April 7, 2022 by Spekulatius

[lnofeisone]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

This guy seems delusional. Just because you need a victory doesn’t need doesn’t mean you get one. NATO Article 5 isn’t worthless either, hopefully they don’t think so at the Kremlin.

Scary to think that these guys Putin's advisors and the damage that they can inflict as a result. 

[Dinar]

37 minutes ago, lnofeisone said:

Scary to think that these guys Putin's advisors and the damage that they can inflict as a result. 

I think that what he is trying to say is that Putin needs to declare a victory.  Whether that is truly a victory or defeat is another matter.  Essentially Putin needs to save face.  At least that is my reading.  May be I am wrong.

[Ulti]

https://octavian.substack.com/p/the-bear-breaks-down-andrei-soldatov?s=r

 

 

 

[Spekulatius]

9 hours ago, Dinar said:

I think that what he is trying to say is that Putin needs to declare a victory.  Whether that is truly a victory or defeat is another matter.  Essentially Putin needs to save face.  At least that is my reading.  May be I am wrong.

Well, but that's Putin's problem and he has his Propaganda machinery to turn pretty much everything into a "victory".

[Spekulatius]

46 minutes ago, Ulti said:

https://octavian.substack.com/p/the-bear-breaks-down-andrei-soldatov?s=r

 

 

 

Pretty good article. Thanks for posting.

[Ulti]

Spek,

I would be interested to know what you think ;but after reading this and reading \watching Howard Marks:

 

The pendulum has swung back to safe and secure.

Putin will be in power for a long time (unless health ).

Comm.and energy will be at elevated levels for a long time.

Its a very long road for green energy.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-solar-expansion-stalled-by-rural-land-use-protests-2022-04-07/

[Ulti]

 

[SharperDingaan]

Re solar expansion.

The issue isn't solar, it is the US approach being advocated. Build a massive green field farm in the middle of nowhere, ship the power out, and hope that nobody bitches. Bribes/lobbying will ensure that most of these will get built, but obviously, management is pretty clueless. 

 

In rural areas solar is more about the farmer putting panels on their land, selling the excess power to the grid, and taxpayers providing financing. Farmers save the cash cost of their monthly electric bill, plus get a little additional cash on  top. The more organic, and the more take up, the more excess power there is.

 

In urban areas it is more about roof top and glass curtain panels. Rooftop panels supplying the home, and excess power going to local grids. Condo/office blocks replacing portions of existing curtain wall, to supply most of the internal need.

 

SD

[benchmark]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/09/business/dealbook/09db-browder-russia-santions.html

 

Bill Browder's view is that this is likely going to drag on for a long time.

[boilermaker75]

On 4/7/2022 at 10:35 AM, SharperDingaan said:

Re solar expansion.

The issue isn't solar, it is the US approach being advocated. Build a massive green field farm in the middle of nowhere, ship the power out, and hope that nobody bitches. Bribes/lobbying will ensure that most of these will get built, but obviously, management is pretty clueless. 

 

In rural areas solar is more about the farmer putting panels on their land, selling the excess power to the grid, and taxpayers providing financing. Farmers save the cash cost of their monthly electric bill, plus get a little additional cash on  top. The more organic, and the more take up, the more excess power there is.

 

In urban areas it is more about roof top and glass curtain panels. Rooftop panels supplying the home, and excess power going to local grids. Condo/office blocks replacing portions of existing curtain wall, to supply most of the internal need.

 

SD

 

I think the distributed sources of generation make the most sense. 

 

You could build massive solar sites in Nevada, but you would need to install a DC transmission system to ship the power to all parts of the US. I worry that such a system would be very vulnerable and it would be easy to shut down the nation’s whole power system. Plus much more expensive as you point out.

Edited April 11, 2022 by boilermaker75

[Ulti]

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/julia-ioffe-on-putins-road-to-war/id1277250997?i=1000553721801

[Spekulatius]

6 hours ago, benchmark said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/09/business/dealbook/09db-browder-russia-santions.html

 

Bill Browder's view is that this is likely going to drag on for a long time.

I agree on this. Putin miscalculated and now his only real off ramp is in a coffin and that's not likely to happen

 

He is trying to create facts on a battlefield, moving the tip of the spear to Donbas and create a breakthrough there. Donbas is better for him from a military POV, because supply lines are shorter and the land is more open. This should be an advantage for large tank armies and artillery and disadvantage hit and run tactics the Ukrainian have been using.

 

Now the war has morphed into a weird version of WW1 with powerful defense weaponary,  airplanes barely relevant because of AA defense systems, Spotting Drones and Artillery being a powerful combo ( airplanes were first used as spotters for artillery in WW1) and the Rockets / Javelins neutralizing tanks.

 

Russia needs to break through the Ukrainian front, which most likely will try with a large tank force similar to Kursk trying to overwhelm the Ukraine and create a break through the front.

 

If you study the Russian army doctrine, then you know that 15-20k dead won't deter them from trying and rolling the dice. If this attack fails or even if it only partly succeeds, then this war is going to take a long time.

 

Regardless of the outcome, we are looking at a new iron curtain getting erected between Russia and Europe.

Edited April 11, 2022 by Spekulatius

[no_free_lunch]

38 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

I agree on this. Putin miscalculated and now his only real off ramp is in a coffin and that's not likely to happen

 

He is trying to create facts on a battlefield, moving the tip of the spear to Donbas and create a breakthrough there. Donbas is better for him from a military POV, because supply lines are shorter and the land is more open. This should be an advantage for large tank armies and artillery and disadvantage hit and run tactics the Ukrainian have been using.

 

Now the war has morphed into a weird version of WW1 with powerful defense weaponary,  airplanes barely relevant because of AA defense systems, Spotting Drones and Artillery being a powerful combo ( airplanes were first used as spotters for artillery in WW1) and the Rockets / Javelins neutralizing tanks.

 

Russia needs to break through the Ukrainian front, which most likely will try with a large tank force similar to Kursk trying to overwhelm the Ukraine and create a break through the front.

 

If you study the Russian army doctrine, then you know that 15-20k dead won't deter them from trying and rolling the dice. If this attack fails or even if it only partly succeeds, then this war is going to take a long time.

 

Regardless of the outcome, we are looking at a new iron curtain getting erected between Russia and Europe.

I agree. I just hope the iron curtain stays up.  Been reading too many stories about rape and torture from the Russian side.   Let's throw away the niceties, this is what it really is.

[SharperDingaan]

There has been quite a bit of time to prepare for Donbas, and a lot of people have a commercial need to demonstrate the effectiveness of their advanced weaponry on live targets. Those open lands are killing fields, and a strategic sinking will do wonders for sales. As would predator drones successfully decapitating Russian leadership.

 

Turning Donbas into rubble simply makes pro-Russian sentiment, very anti-Russian; as will the mass termination of large segments of population to maintain fear. Obviously, it doesn't go well for Russian conscripts, or their leadership. A failure, also demonstrates that the czar is weaker than thought, and raises opportunities .....

 

There is no point to live demonstration, without video proof.

Lots of lovely images beaming into Russia.

 

SD

 

 

 

[Spekulatius]

53 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

There has been quite a bit of time to prepare for Donbas, and a lot of people have a commercial need to demonstrate the effectiveness of their advanced weaponry on live targets. Those open lands are killing fields, and a strategic sinking will do wonders for sales. As would predator drones successfully decapitating Russian leadership.

 

Turning Donbas into rubble simply makes pro-Russian sentiment, very anti-Russian; as will the mass termination of large segments of population to maintain fear. Obviously, it doesn't go well for Russian conscripts, or their leadership. A failure, also demonstrates that the czar is weaker than thought, and raises opportunities .....

 

There is no point to live demonstration, without video proof.

Lots of lovely images beaming into Russia.

 

SD

 

 

 

 

Well, if you bought a lot of Russian weapons, you may want to ask for a refund. It's difficult to blame this disaster on operator error entirely. Turkey for example will sell a lot of drones for sure. The Bayraktar is basically a simpler Reaper drone at 1/4 of the price and with twice the payload (due to using non-powered glide bombs rather than hellfire missiles).

 

Turkey has a lot of good stuff in terms of military equipment (small tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, rockets). I bet it will sell like hotcakes since the Turkish lira is also cheap.

 

Also keep in mind that the US shares satellite surveillance with Ukraine so it is exactly known to them where, with what and with how much the Russians will be attacking.

 

I know for fact that the Maxar pics we are seeing in newsreels are not state of the art. The real mil grade surveillance is much better than that using high resolution optics, IR and what not. State of the art satellite imagery can likely read a license plate if it points upwards.

Edited April 11, 2022 by Spekulatius

[SharperDingaan]

Remember the Falklands War?

The sinking of the HMS Sheffield made the Exocet missile famous (and sold hundreds). Sink one of the larger Russian sea-borne cruise missile launchers, in a single strike, and you too will sell hundreds of these. Your existing inventory will also instantly double/triple in value on the back market - and the launch of that missile ..... could come from anywhere.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/oct/15/revealed-full-story-behind-sinking-of-falklands-warship-hms-sheffield    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exocet

 

The updated version of the 'Warthog' is the 'Gunslinger', a remote controlled drone. One has to assume that there are at a least a few 'Beta' versions about, with similar weaponry, that need to 'prove concept' - on ideally, live targets. Tank killers, built for open land killing fields, beaming back simultaneous video? The more sophisticated versions hunting people?

 

Doesn't look good for the conscripts.

 

SD

[Viking]

I used to follow Gwynne Dyer when i was younger for his international political reporting. He has been posting a few things on Russia/Ukraine.

- https://gwynnedyer.com

—————
Do the Russians Have War in Their Blood?
https://gwynnedyer.com/2022/do-the-russians-have-war-in-their-blood/

 

“The Russians are deluded, but it’s a delusion that has struck almost all the former European colonial powers after they lost their empires. You might call it ‘post-imperial muscle memory’, like the phantom sensation that an amputated leg is still there even after it’s gone. It generally involves several foredoomed wars.

 

The peak period for this was 1950-1975, when the French, the British and the Portuguese each fought several futile wars to hang on to their colonies, or at least to ensure that ‘friendly’ regimes inherited power after independence: Algeria and Vietnam; Kenya and Cyprus; Angola and Mozambique.

 

The Russian empire died much later (1991), partly because it was a land empire, with lots of Russians settled in all the colonies, and partly because it pretended not to be an empire for its last seventy years, calling itself the Soviet Union instead. So most Russians don’t even grasp the connection with decolonisation elsewhere.

 

But it is really the same transitory phenomenon, with the same inevitable outcome. The Russians don’t really have war in their blood permanently. No more than everybody else does, anyway.“

 

Edited April 11, 2022 by Viking

[SharperDingaan]

Denial works until the body bags show up. The grieving process is exploitable for a short time, then you lose control. Country Joe And The Fish: And you can be the first ones in your block. To have your boy come home in a box. And its one, two, three. What are we fighting for?

 

Putin remains, only so long as he is useful to the regime, and the clock is ticking. 

Time at the top is a limited term engagement; no matter who you are, or where you are. 

 

Colonialists are widely unpopular today, but the fact is they knew their stuff, and were very good at the colonizing 'process'. Local 'strong men' were routinely installed for roughly 10 years, then 'turned over' in favor of the next generation. Long enough to dictate as they wished, but not long enough to accumulate enough power to threaten the colonizing regime. When costs > benefits, you simply granted 'independence'.

 

SD

 

Edited April 11, 2022 by SharperDingaan