Political Posts

[Spekulatius]

29 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

^^^ What's hilarious is that you don't think that this administration is responsible for high energy prices. 

Now that is really rich. Just keep kidding yourself. Joe owns this one, just like he owns his Green New Deal.

We have been agreeing on some things here, so I knew it wouldn’t last .

 

Tell me how this works:

Total world wide oil production ~95M brl.

US oil production ~10.5M brl

How much of this US oil production is influenced by government? May call it 5% (which is generous). so now the oil price is set as a function of world wide demand / supply balance and you think that Biden can influence prices? Besides that ESG was a factor under Trump, is a factor under Biden and will be factor with the next President. Lots of talk and barking on both sides, but neither one has much of an impact.

 

NG is a different issue, because to a large extend, NG prices are set locally or by LNG imports, so there are barriers to move stuff around. Crude however is pretty friction less and trades on global supply demand balance, adjusted for oil quality difference and transportation costs (which are low).

Edited March 18, 2022 by Spekulatius

[Xerxes]

The invention of supertanker 50-60 years ago turned a fragmented oil market into global market with a global price, albeit heavily influenced by OPEC at the beginning simply because of their outsize control on supply.
 

everytime we had high prices that led to new source of supplied, lowering OPEC contribution and influence. Like the North Sea fields in the 80s. Etc. 

 

natural gas remained very much a local fragmented market (with local price) because it was constrained by the pipeline. As the number of LNG increases that will do to natural gas what supertanker did to the oil market: a convergence toward a global price (net of shipment cost etc)

Edited March 18, 2022 by Xerxes

[cubsfan]

^^^ Lots of good or bad things can happen when you are the world's swing producer. Maybe we actually

learned something from being under the thumb of OPEC and the Saudi's for years - don't you think?

 

By innovation or sheer luck, the USA found itself in this very lucky position to be the world's largest 

producer of oil. And while the Europeans were shutting down coal plants, nuclear plants, etc, etc  - they 

make a tragic mistake in putting their energy future in the hands of a very, very bad actor.

 

It's pretty damn clear to me, at least, that Putin clearly understood the importance of energy as an 

essential component of American strategic power.  That President Biden did not, is a tragedy for all.

 

Say all you like about NATO membership being the primary reason. My opinion is Europe made a deal

with the devil - and Biden's Afghanistan utter disaster convinced Putin -  It's NOW or NEVER.

[Spekulatius]

Putin sacking his generals and throwing some in jail. Looks more and more like Stalins playbook.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10624659/Russia-sacks-one-generals-amid-claims-leaked-information-led-loss-life.html

 

Good thing for Putin the buck doesn’t stop at the very top in a dictatorship.

[Xerxes]

If he was playing Age of Empires, he could have "loaded" from his last "save" from Feb 21, and do things differently, or used the following cheatcodes .... or maybe even go for "wimpywimpywimpy"

 

What is the cheat code to get 10,000 Su-27MK ?

10,000 wood - lumberjack. 10,000 food - cheese steak jimmy's. 10,000 gold - robin hood. 10,000 stone - rock on. 100,000 of all resources - ninjalui. Commit suicide - wimpywimpywimpy. Control animals instead of men - natural wonders. Full map - marco.

[no_free_lunch]

I would just say that much of this anti Putin stuff is propaganda. Russia is far from defeated and many in the country support the war.  I actually see them slowly winning. Ukraine does not really have the capability to launch strong counter attacks, not that I have seen, so over time Russia takes more and more territory. 

 

Mariupol is about to fall  and then there is a land bridge to the Crimea.  After that forces will be freed up to push into the central.  There is a real chance of them cutting the east of the country off.

 

They need everyone's help and maybe they can stall Russia out. However do not believe any hype that Russia is approaching defeat. Respect the Russian culture and realize they know how to suffer. 

[Spekulatius]

38 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

If he was playing Age of Empires, he could have "loaded" from his last "save" from Feb 21, and do things differently, or used the following cheatcodes .... or maybe even go for "wimpywimpywimpy"

 

What is the cheat code to get 10,000 Su-27MK ?

10,000 wood - lumberjack. 10,000 food - cheese steak jimmy's. 10,000 gold - robin hood. 10,000 stone - rock on. 100,000 of all resources - ninjalui. Commit suicide - wimpywimpywimpy. Control animals instead of men - natural wonders. Full map - marco.

I think Putin is just busy making the cheat code for 50,000 Syrian mercenaries work.

[Blugolds]

35 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

If he was playing Age of Empires, he could have "loaded" from his last "save" from Feb 21, and do things differently, or used the following cheatcodes .... or maybe even go for "wimpywimpywimpy"

 

What is the cheat code to get 10,000 Su-27MK ?

10,000 wood - lumberjack. 10,000 food - cheese steak jimmy's. 10,000 gold - robin hood. 10,000 stone - rock on. 100,000 of all resources - ninjalui. Commit suicide - wimpywimpywimpy. Control animals instead of men - natural wonders. Full map - marco.

 Wow that takes me back…that was THE game back in the day for me and my friends, countless hours against each other…if this was the case we could send the Ukrainians some Shelby Cobras and be done with it…

 

- Shelby Cobra = how do you turn this on 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

8 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

80% of the things happening in the commodity space can be explained by the fact that supply lags demand. Oil does not really behave differently than all the other commodities like copper, iron lumber or even shipping rates.

Both parties are talking their book here. Republicans blame high gas prices on Biden, Democrats blame high gas prices on greedy oil companies, it s all nonsense, but I can understand why they do this.

 

I do not understand why people who are supposedly skilled in economics actually repeating some of those above as if they were true.

 

People love to think they're so much smarter than "the others" - the others being those on the opposite side of the political spectrum.

 

They also love to disagree with them and will change their underlying principles to do so. Antiwar Democrats under Bush disappeared under Obama. Anti-deficit Republicans disappeared under Trump. People who wanted out of Afghanistan under Trump blame that fiasco on Biden because it was Biden's responsibility to execute on Trump's plan...but those same people will give Trump a pass on abysmal execution during the pandemic. 

 

Politics clouds logical thought. The things they claim to believe arent what they believe - they just want to be different than "them" and beat "them" and will say whatever is necessary to do it as demonstrated in all of the hypocritical examples above for both parties. 

 

Straddling the middle I think gives you an open mind to both sides. All my Republican family in the Midwest thinks I'm raging liberal. All my raging liberal NYC friends think I'm a Republican. That's what independent thought gets you, I guess. 

Edited March 18, 2022 by TwoCitiesCapital

[RichardGibbons]

Or as Munger would say, "Another thing I think should be avoided is extremely intense ideology because it cabbages up one's mind."

[cubsfan]

20 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

People love to think they're so much smarter than "the others" - the others being those on the opposite side of the political spectrum.

 

They also love to disagree with them and will change their underlying principles to do so. Antiwar Democrats under Bush disappeared under Obama. Anti-deficit Republicans disappeared under Trump. People who wanted out of Afghanistan under Trump blame that fiasco on Biden because it was Biden's responsibility to execute on Trump's plan...but those same people will give Trump a pass on abysmal execution during the pandemic. 

 

Politics clouds logical thought. The things they claim to believe arent what they believe - they just want to be different than "them" and beat "them" and will say whatever is necessary to do it as demonstrated in all of the hypocritical examples above for both parties. 

 

Straddling the middle I think gives you an open mind to both sides. All my Republican family in the Midwest thinks I'm raging liberal. All my raging liberal NYC friends think I'm a Republican. That's what independent thought gets you, I guess. 

 

^^^ Oh my god, talk about a brain turned to mush...  This is actually funny.  Tell us more about Biden's wonderful

evacuation of Afghanistan. Please....tell us how it wasn't a total debacle...

 

You mean where he left the Taliban with tens of billions worth of the most sophisticated arms in the world?

 

Those arms that he might have been able to provide to the Ukrainians? 

Yeah, who am I to criticize the man who just make the Taliban world's largest terrorist army!

 

Thanks for the Friday laughs though....

Edited March 18, 2022 by cubsfan

[Pelagic]

Ironically there are some Taliban fighters heading to Ukraine to fight with the Ukrainians, killing Russians being their raison d'etre and whatnot - maybe they'll bring the leftover US equipment with them. Likely to even see some US veterans and Taliban fighting together in Ukraine if this goes on long enough.

 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

1 hour ago, cubsfan said:

 

^^^ Oh my god, talk about a brain turned to mush...  This is actually funny.  Tell us more about Biden's wonderful

evacuation of Afghanistan. Please....tell us how it wasn't a total debacle...

 

You mean where he left the Taliban with tens of billions worth of the most sophisticated arms in the world?

 

Those arms that he might have been able to provide to the Ukrainians? 

Yeah, who am I to criticize the man who just make the Taliban world's largest terrorist army!

 

Thanks for the Friday laughs though....

 

I didn't say it was wonderful. I said it was Trump's plan and Biden failed to execute on it. Just like Trump failed to execute on Covid. 

 

Evidently political bias also f*cks up your reading comprehension.

 

 

Edited March 18, 2022 by TwoCitiesCapital

[Gregmal]

Why can’t we all just agree to make tons of money off this nonsense? It’s highly predictable and literally raining money and “the market” is still red on the year!

[shhughes1116]

2 hours ago, no_free_lunch said:

I would just say that much of this anti Putin stuff is propaganda. Russia is far from defeated and many in the country support the war.  I actually see them slowly winning. Ukraine does not really have the capability to launch strong counter attacks, not that I have seen, so over time Russia takes more and more territory. 

 

Mariupol is about to fall  and then there is a land bridge to the Crimea.  After that forces will be freed up to push into the central.  There is a real chance of them cutting the east of the country off.

 

They need everyone's help and maybe they can stall Russia out. However do not believe any hype that Russia is approaching defeat. Respect the Russian culture and realize they know how to suffer. 

The Russians rear areas are not secure.  In order to secure their rear, they have to pull back troops from the various city encirclements.   But In order to secure the encircled cities, they must pull troops out of their rear areas.  Their multi-axis advance forced them into this poor situation.  The Russians have chosen the latter, and the Ukrainian Territorial Defense Forces are taking a page out of the Robert Rogers’ playbook and wreaking havoc on the Russian’s road-bound traffic in undefended rear areas.  

 

Certainly possible that Mauripol falls, and those Russian forces pivot north to cut off the eastern portion of Ukraine.  That said, I think it is more likely that this slowly grinds into a stalemate, with the Russians unable to muster additional offensive actions.  
 

fortunately for Ukraine, they aren’t relying on this board for strategic military advice because they would most certainly be f**ked of that was the case.

[nsx5200]

10 hours ago, cubsfan said:

^^^ What's hilarious is that you don't think that this administration is responsible for high energy prices. 

Now that is really rich. Just keep kidding yourself. Joe owns this one, just like he owns his Green New Deal.

I didn't know Biden was crowned the king of OPEC+ in secret.  If you have credible news, please share.  He did, however, pump in trillions of dollar that ended up inflating everything, and not just oil, so Joe's not completely blameless.

 

@Gregmal, I whole heartedly agree with you.  If you know of a viable way to buy Gazprom at near zero pennies, I'd be happy to put in a dinner-valued lottery ticket.  If the ticket is redeemable, it won't matter if we choose to blame Joe, Trump or heck, you can even blame me.

 

Here's an interesting article I ran across regarding dictorship and Putin:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/putin-dictator-trap-russia-ukraine/627064/

 

Something to think about if Trump decides to run again.

 

 

Edited March 18, 2022 by nsx5200

[Spekulatius]

40 minutes ago, shhughes1116 said:

fortunately for Ukraine, they aren’t relying on this board for strategic military advice because they would most certainly be f**ked of that was the case.

LOL, very true, but that doesn’t prevent us from trying.

[Spekulatius]

One of the best tactical assesment I have seen in German (or Austrian )

 

[Blugolds]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

One of the best tactical assesment I have seen in German (or Austrian )

 

 

Cliff notes for those of us who are a little rusty on the translation (aka dont speak the language at all)?

[formthirteen]

- The first challenge is to keep control of Kiev which so far has been successful.

- The second challenge is in the east where the Ukrainians might become encircled. Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia are key cities where the Dnieper can be crossed.

- The third attack vector from Brest, if it were to happen, could cause panic even if not completely successful.

- The fourth attack vector is the biggest problem. It follows the Ukrainian steppe in the south which allows for rapid advancement. Mechanized troops are vulnerable to attacks from the air.

 

[Blugolds]

@formthirteen thanks!

[Spekulatius]

6 hours ago, formthirteen said:

- The first challenge is to keep control of Kiev which so far has been successful.

- The second challenge is in the east where the Ukrainians might become encircled. Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia are key cities where the Dnieper can be crossed.

- The third attack vector from Brest, if it were to happen, could cause panic even if not completely successful.

- The fourth attack vector is the biggest problem. It follows the Ukrainian steppe in the south which allows for rapid advancement. Mechanized troops are vulnerable to attacks from the air.

 

@formthirteen great summary. I think 3 & 4 are the biggest issues. So far Belarus has not been involved, but could be, The goal for this vector would be to cut of supplies from the west.

 

This Austrian officer assessment is pretty good. They also have another video up on YT on how a Russian battalion operates.

 

When you listen to Putin’s soccer stadium rally and the other talk yesterday it’s clear he won’t let go. He sacked some generals and I guess there were some new guys now in charge that come up with Plan B (Plan A was Blitzkrieg and it clearly failed ) which might be what the Austrian officer described. This war is going to take quite some time - more than 4 weeks from here  is my guess.

Edited March 19, 2022 by Spekulatius

[no_free_lunch]

This is what the Russians are saying. It actually is encouraging. They are admitting to switching tactics. 

 

Heads up, Russian propaganda below.

 

"

The second phase of the military operation has begun. Russia first used hypersonic missile "Daggers" and began to destroy entire brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, now the fighting will be tougher

 

 At today's briefing of the Ministry of Defense, information was announced about the use of the Bastion and Dagger complexes as part of a special military operation. This is the first officially confirmed use of these types of weapons in a real conflict.

 

 This fact, as well as the emerging information about the successful use of cruise missiles against the mercenary base near Lvov and the location of the 79th brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Nikolaev, suggests that Russia, with a high degree of probability, has begun the second phase of the NMD. And now, unlike the first stage, the conduct of hostilities is built not on the classical concept of a large-scale offensive, but on the principles of “new generation” armed conflicts, when, instead of a ground offensive, priority is given to the use of long-range precision weapons and mobile special-purpose sabotage groups. Such an approach, although it will require more time for the complete demilitarization of Ukraine, will significantly reduce the possible losses of regular ground formations of the RF Armed Forces.

 

 Thus, the military operation is increasingly beginning to look like a tough modern war by all the rules, which greatly frightens the Ukrainian leadership, which is increasingly turning to NATO with a request to create a no-fly zone. However, predictably, there is no talk of any no-fly zone.

"

Edited March 19, 2022 by no_free_lunch

[Spekulatius]

The analogies between Putin and  Hitler become clearer and closer. Putin is already in full blown genocide mode, his war rally to celebrate the Crimean annexation in Moscow is similar to Goebbels Sportpalast speech ( Wollt Ihr den totalen Krieg!) - both were after a strategic defeat (Stalingrad) and now he fired of his hypersonic Wunderwaffe in the general direction of the NATO.

Just like the NAZI‘s did, he is looking for friends in Asia. similar to Hitler and the Nazis, Putin is always doubling up, if he loses, betting that the other sides doesn’t call his cards.

While nothing is every exactly the same, history does rhyme and this rhyme looks very scary to me. I am of the opinion that we are already in a war with Russia already  we just don’t call it like it is yet. I don‘t think we can kick this can down the road either, hope I am wrong.

 

The implications for the equity market are not positive, I think.

 

On a related note, it isn’t just Putins war either, there is a significant part of the population aligned with him. There is also a significant part that is not - mostly young people. This YouTube 1420 channel gives an interesting view on how people in Russia think, with random looking street interviews. Some folks are quite gutsy, putting out there opinions like that:

 

Edited March 23, 2022 by Spekulatius

[Pelagic]

Good summary of the war. Russia failed in its initial objectives and now a stalemate that neither side can break is likely going forward.

 

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-19

 

Keep looking for Russian propaganda plays like the hypersonic missiles, more big bad scary Chechens being sent to fight, etc. Their real impact is likely to be quite limited but Russia uses them as domestic propaganda wins and they get the western media in a frenzy too. As stated above the main strategy is going to be massed artillery on Ukrainian cities in an attempt to break Ukraine's will to fight. If conventional bombing of British, German, and Japanese cities during WWII taught us anything, it won't and will likely have the opposite effect.

 

Article that raises some questions about the hypersonic missile for instance: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44840/we-have-questions-about-russias-claimed-kinzhal-hypersonic-missile-use-in-ukraine