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What's on your Wish List


Sweet
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Hi all, this is my first post in the board.  Hopefully there will be many others.

 

I was watching a talk given by Mohnish Pabrai about a month ago.  I quickly forgot about it after I had watched it, but a week or two later I was thinking about the video again.  I realised there was an extremely valuable exercise which I missed.

 

Mohnish recalled that he was giving a seminar and a person in the audience ask him what stocks were on his wish list, and would he mind sharing a couple of those companies with the audience.  Mohnish replied that he couldn’t answer to the question, but not because he didn’t want to, but because he didn’t actually have a wish list of stocks.  The question itself prompted Mohnish to start thinking and developing a wish list.

 

And so to the purpose of this thread - developing a wish list of stocks, and the benefits of doing so. 

 

I interpreted a wish list as any stocks in a fantastic company which you don’t own (or don’t own enough of), but if conditions were right you would buy.  Those conditions might be that the company is overvalued, or there are some short term risks for that company and you want to wait, or it may be that you don't have the cash right now to buy it.

 

When I was thinking about my own wish list I identified several major weaknesses of mine:

  1. My market knowledge is shallow.  I only know what I know, and I am too focused on my own investments.   I couldn't give an account of other companies and sectors, and how they were currently performing.
  2. The wish list I drew up was very small, I feel this is a reflection of my lack of knowledge in point 1.  I hope to add more stocks over time.
  3. Nearly every stock that I wanted to buy are all well known.  Of course good business are well known, but there was not a single emerging stock on the list.

 

Here is my list in no particular order.  It's not sexy, it's still a work in progress, new stocks will be added, and some might be removed:

 

- Amazon

- Alphbet

- Visa

- Mastercard

- Paypal

- Bank of America

- Well Fargo

- Costco

- Starbucks

- Walmart

- Microsoft

(Yes, no Apple)

 

Hoping that others will share their list (if they have one), and for those who don't have a wish list, perhaps they can find some benefit in participating in this exercise.

 

Edited by Sweet
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  • 4 months later...
On 1/9/2022 at 2:59 AM, Sweet said:

Hi all, this is my first post in the board.  Hopefully there will be many others.

 

I was watching a talk given by Mohnish Pabrai about a month ago.  I quickly forgot about it after I had watched it, but a week or two later I was thinking about the video again.  I realised there was an extremely valuable exercise which I missed.

 

Mohnish recalled that he was giving a seminar and a person in the audience ask him what stocks were on his wish list, and would he mind sharing a couple of those companies with the audience.  Mohnish replied that he couldn’t answer to the question, but not because he didn’t want to, but because he didn’t actually have a wish list of stocks.  The question itself prompted Mohnish to start thinking and developing a wish list.

 

And so to the purpose of this thread - developing a wish list of stocks, and the benefits of doing so. 

 

I interpreted a wish list as any stocks in a fantastic company which you don’t own, but if conditions were right you would buy.  Those conditions might be that the company is overvalued, or there are some short term risks for that company and you want to wait, or it may be that you don't have the cash right now to buy it.

 

When I was thinking about my own wish list I identified several major weaknesses of mine:

  1. My market knowledge is shallow.  I am comfortable only know what I know, and I am too focused on my own investments.   I couldn't give an account of other companies and sectors, and how they were currently performing.
  2. The wish list I drew up was very small, I feel this is a reflection of my lack of knowledge in point 1.  I hope to add more stocks over time.
  3. Nearly every stock that I wanted to buy are all well known.  Of course good business are well known, but there was not a single emerging stock on the list.

 

Here is my list in no particular order.  It's not sexy, it's still a work in progress, new stocks will be added, and some might be removed:

 

- Amazon

- Alphbet

- Visa

- Mastercard

- Paypal

- Bank of America

- Well Fargo

- Costco

- Starbucks

- Walmart

- Microsoft

(Yes, no Apple)

 

Hoping that others will share their list (if they have one), and for those who don't have a wish list, perhaps they can find some benefit in participating in this exercise.

 

 

I like this theme.

 

At the moment I have these stocks on my wish list:

 

Costco

Jungfraubahn

Gladstone Land

Disney

Skistar

 

I also have a small position in BRK and Hinghams Institution of Savings. But really looking to add more when price is more decent.

 

I am again starting to read up on value investing after a couple of years with no room for investing, both due to time and money, and I am thinking a lot about my strategy going forward. I am really leaning on having great business at a decent price, or rather worlds best companies at a decent price. We'll see what happens.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Posted (edited)
42 minutes ago, LearningMachine said:

 

@Sweet, I'm curious what's your reasoning for no Apple?


My one big watch-out for Apple is its super high exposure to China. It is likely more exposed to China than any other large company in the world. As we learned with Russia, it will not matter until it does. And when it matters… it will matter fast and… ouch! 
 

China will be putting the screws to Taiwan and likely soon (2023?). Just like Putin, Xi has been VERY clear on what the plan is. All an investor has to do is listen to what Xi has said. Not that complicated. 

Edited by Viking
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Posted (edited)

@LearningMachine I probably would add Apple.  I own an iPhone, and I wouldn’t own anything else.  It’s not the phone, it’s the integration and services offered.  I can can see Apple going after Visa and Mastercard.  The iPhone has measurably improved my life.

 

Four months on I would make changes to the list:

 

- Amazon

- Alphbet

- Apple

- Visa

- Mastercard

- Bank of America

- Well Fargo

- Costco

- Starbucks

- Walmart

- Microsoft


These are definitely companies I would buy a lot of if the price was right.

 

However it’s missing small - medium cap with large growth potential - I.e. no young compounders.

 

It’s missing biotech too which IMO is an ever emerging field.

 

I’m not really happy with the list.

 

Edited by Sweet
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2 hours ago, Miklagard said:

 

I like this theme.

 

At the moment I have these stocks on my wish list:

 

Costco

Jungfraubahn

Gladstone Land

Disney

Skistar

 

I also have a small position in BRK and Hinghams Institution of Savings. But really looking to add more when price is more decent.

 

I am again starting to read up on value investing after a couple of years with no room for investing, both due to time and money, and I am thinking a lot about my strategy going forward. I am really leaning on having great business at a decent price, or rather worlds best companies at a decent price. We'll see what happens.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Why do you like Skistar?  Why Jungfraubahn?  (I looked at it years ago.)  Thank you.

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1 hour ago, Sweet said:

@LearningMachine I probably would add Apple.  I own an iPhone, and I wouldn’t own anything else.  It’s not the phone, it’s the integration and services offered.  I can can see Apple going after Visa and Mastercard.  The iPhone has measurably improved my life.

 

Four months on I would make changes to the list:

 

- Amazon

- Alphbet

- Apple

- Visa

- Mastercard

- Bank of America

- Well Fargo

- Costco

- Starbucks

- Walmart

- Microsoft


These are definitely companies I would buy a lot of if the price was right.

 

However it’s missing small - medium cap with large growth potential - I.e. no young compounders.

 

It’s missing biotech too which IMO is an ever emerging field.

 

I’m not really happy with the list.

 

What do you think is the right price for Alphabet, Microsoft and Costco and why?  Thank you.

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2 hours ago, Miklagard said:

 

I like this theme.

 

At the moment I have these stocks on my wish list:

 

Costco

Jungfraubahn

Gladstone Land

Disney

Skistar

 

I also have a small position in BRK and Hinghams Institution of Savings. But really looking to add more when price is more decent.

 

I am again starting to read up on value investing after a couple of years with no room for investing, both due to time and money, and I am thinking a lot about my strategy going forward. I am really leaning on having great business at a decent price, or rather worlds best companies at a decent price. We'll see what happens.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I agree, this seems like an interesting exercise. Sorry I missed your initial post. Better late than never, I guess. Anyway, I like most of your list. I’d add MKL, which I was able to add during 2020 after foolishly selling after it went up about 125% several years ago only to watch it go up further. I’d also add IFF, BA, KO, PEP, UNP & TPL (which I foolishly DIDN’T buy, but seriously considered in March of 2020 at under $450). Live and learn. Investing is the ultimate exercise in continuous improvement.  I’d be interested in the thoughts of others on the board. 

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3 hours ago, Viking said:


My one big watch-out for Apple is its super high exposure to China. It is likely more exposed to China than any other large company in the world. As we learned with Russia, it will not matter until it does. And when it matters… it will matter fast and… ouch! 
 

China will be putting the screws to Taiwan and likely soon (2023?). Just like Putin, Xi has been VERY clear on what the plan is. All an investor has to do is listen to what Xi has said. Not that complicated. 

 

Thanks @Viking for highlighting the probability of this risk for everyone's benefit.  If that risk materializes, it will probably have a huge impact on a lot of things.  Good thinking to plan ahead so that you are ok if it happens, and also ok if it doesn't happen. 

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Posted (edited)

@Dinar at what price should I buy?  
 

It depends on whether the story has changed, I don’t have a rule, however for me it should be obvious.

 

By obvious I mean you check the price, a few other metrics, and you aren’t opening an excel sheet to do DCF because the opportunity is so apparent.  I sometimes feel that if you are doing a DCF analysis the opportunity might not be that compelling.

 

As an example.  In 2013 (if my memory is right) Apple dropped approx. 50%.  There were some concerns about growth and the next phone cycle, and every time Tim Cook spoke the shares just kept dropping.  Apple had a large amount of cash on hand, which when subtracted from market cap meant a you were paying a PE of 6-8, and all the growth was free.  Not many opportunities come up like that though, which is why there is a wishing element to this list!

 

Edited by Sweet
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12 hours ago, Miklagard said:

 

I like this theme.

 

At the moment I have these stocks on my wish list:

 

Costco

Jungfraubahn

Gladstone Land

Disney

Skistar

 

I also have a small position in BRK and Hinghams Institution of Savings. But really looking to add more when price is more decent.

 

I am again starting to read up on value investing after a couple of years with no room for investing, both due to time and money, and I am thinking a lot about my strategy going forward. I am really leaning on having great business at a decent price, or rather worlds best companies at a decent price. We'll see what happens.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Interesting list. why Jungfraubahn?

 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted (edited)
On 5/23/2022 at 4:21 AM, Dinar said:

Why do you like Skistar?  Why Jungfraubahn?  (I looked at it years ago.)  Thank you.

Skistar has tremendous assets. I would be surprised if Skistars assets doesn't have the same status in the high middle class/upper class in 50 years time. 

 

Jungfraubahn also has a tremendous assets, high moat, a long track record and low debt.

 

Gladstone is a asset play as well, farmland will be around and it is a scarce resource. Need to read up on it a bit more, which I need to do for everything since I just started to spend time on investing again.

 

I doubt the growth and scaleability in all of these, so important to get in to a low multiple, but when I get in I can sleep well for many years to come.

Edited by Miklagard
Spelling mistake (autocorrect)
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Posted (edited)
15 hours ago, Miklagard said:

Skistar has tremendous assets. I would be surprised if Skistars assets doesn't have the same status in the high middle class/upper class in 50 years time. 

 

Jungfraubahn also has a tremendous assets, high moat, a long track record and low debt.

 

Gladstone is a asset play as well, farmland will be around and it is a scarce resource. Need to read up on it a bit more, which I need to do for everything since I just started to spend time on investing again.

 

I doubt the growth and scaleability in all of these, so important to get in to a low multiple, but when I get in I can sleep well for many years to come.

 

Jungfraubahn has had a Return on Equity of 6-7-8% over the years and the stock has offered a CAGR of 7-8%.

I understand that there is no competition and the business will probably be there 100 years from now, but that fact alone has not led to great returns. 

Edited by manuelbean
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30 minutes ago, manuelbean said:

 

Jungfraubahn has had a Return on Equity of 6-7-8% over the years and the stock has offered a CAGR of 7-8%.

I understand that there is no competition and the business will probably be there 100 years from now, but that fact alone has not led to great returns. 

Well, in the long run, your return will match the return on equity, which I don't think will every be that great with Jungfraubahn. This is a stay rich stock, not a get rich stock.

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8 minutes ago, boilermaker75 said:

 

I've always worn shorts during the summer, except when I was working in a lab. Of course I work at a university, which is a little different.

Yes, i was wearing shorts too at the University - not a problem. I do recall at one of my first days at work, a new engineer who started with me was wearing shorts in summer and our boss made a comment or gave some advice. He said he truly doesn't care (which i think was the case), but he might some of the other managers might give him a look. That's the last day he wore shorts at work.

 

I sort of wished we had taken the opportunity to collude and all wear shorts the next day.

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As for the intend of this thread, I found the issues with these wish list is that once those quality stocks fall to your target prices, a  lot of other stocks have become so much cheaper relative to your quality list, so you end up not buying them despite lower valuations.

In a way, valuations are always relative and there is an opportunity set of stocks out there that one can buy. That makes buying quality stocks always a bit difficult for investors with an inclination to value.

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In a market correction, High quality large caps are not usually relative bargains. But the value of a wish list is when there are idiosyncratic sell-offs. But then they are hard to buy since they are selling off for a reason.

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A wishlist IMO is more so useful when you have a specific knowledge of a company and a commitment to owning it. However too often folks just look at something, say AAPL, and go "I want to own it 10% lower" thinking theyre getting a bargain cuz they see the "10% lower" against the current market price. At $150, $135 looks good. However the 10% lower against a market price that is "old price - 10%"....doesnt look as pretty and they freeze up or then want another 10% off...then rinse and repeat the whole way through. $135 at $135 is what it is and of course now $120 looks "better". Lotta dumb psychological stuff goes into the way people go about investing. 

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Posted (edited)

Price anchoring is one of the worst pitfalls in investing and one of the hardest to avoid - it just plays into human nature too much, especially if you are value investor.

 

As for wish lists, I have a watch list of perhaps 400 stocks in my brokerage account and yahoo finance and a few other sites (docoh.com, tikr.com) it's  watch list, not a wish list. It my universe of stocks I know something about and that forever reason i found interesting at some time.

The stocks sometimes linger there for years and I forget about them, then something comes up and I look at them again and they seem to be cheap and I do more research. Sometimes I end up buying them, sometimes a competitor. I found these watch lists one of the best tool. if I remember what I took them in the list for and followed them on and off, I have already some basic knowledge that get's me started on further research / or updates.

 

Edited by Spekulatius
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Hermès (French luxury goods).

 

Unmet demand, pricing power, family ownership, Arnault wanted it badly etc.


Though main reason is a little more irrational… thought about buying in 2010, didn't, and it’s bothers me every time I see a store. Need to finally tick it off on a decline so I can walk the streets / airports of Paris (where I live) in peace 😄

 

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