Kuppy on Inflation

[COBFInfinity]

22 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

And your judgment has led to what kind of performance? I would almost guarantee the political motivated idiot has crushed yours? Which makes you?
 

 It’s amazing people just ignore ideas because they find something to disagree with….or are afraid of out of the box mental exercises. People who have proven to be able to generate alpha trump people who just give a worthless opinion with little else attached to it. 
 

I mean what would you call it if you wasted a significant amount of time and more importantly money being long the GSEs? 

Believe it or not, I have a net profit on GSEs right now. Not a good IRR, but life goes on.

 

And yes, I'm a complete nobody. But you're on a value investing forum promoting chasing the past performance of someone who legitimately believes every conspiracy theory that your uncle shares on Facebook. Do you know how many crypto bros have gotten way richer than Kuppy that I "obviously" should have listened to based on a few good trades?

 

As others have pointed out, Kuppy has blown up a few times already in the past and I don't know if he was deranged back then or if it is a more recent issue. Anyway, I've made my point. Good luck.

[Gregmal]

And what does any of this have to do with evaluating an investment idea or theme on its merits?

[bathtime]

1 hour ago, COBFInfinity said:

Gregmal, I am going to upgrade your hero from politically motivated idiot to mentally unstable. I guess your logic is he had some good trades, so just assume he'll have some more. My logic says don't trust the stock picks of someone who lives in a fantasy world.

 

 

In current climes it is, intentionally or not, probably an effective marketing strategy for gaining lots of followers. IMO Kuppy lives in a rich Miami bro bubble AND he’s a skilled stock picker. 

Edited November 1, 2021 by bathtime

[rkbabang]

14 hours ago, bathtime said:

In current climes it is, intentionally or not, probably an effective marketing strategy for gaining lots of followers. IMO Kuppy lives in a rich Miami bro bubble AND he’s a skilled stock picker. 

 

Impossible.  For someone to have a good idea he has to have the same politics as you, believe current medical advice, and has never had a bad idea in the past.  Just that fact that Kuppy mentions an investment idea is reason enough not to invest.  Just look at Steve Jobs thinking that fruit juice smoothies can cure cancer, obviously one should never have invested in Apple.

[Gregmal]

Yea people regularly make idiotic decisions that influence their investing. And ironically enough, it isnt the guy saying the earth is flat or that 80% of the world will die from a vaccine....its the people saying "he said the earth is flat so I dont care what he's investing in even though his record is excellent"....

[rkbabang]

7 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Yea people regularly make idiotic decisions that influence their investing. And ironically enough, it isnt the guy saying the earth is flat or that 80% of the world will die from a vaccine....its the people saying "he said the earth is flat so I dont care what he's investing in even though his record is excellent"....

 

The funny thing about investing is that to make money you have to consistently do what everyone else isn't doing.  It is almost skewed toward the non-conformist.  Thus it shouldn't surprise anyone that someone with outlandish ideas in other areas of life could also have some good investment ideas.  Thinking what everyone else is thinking and doing what everyone else is doing is not a recipe for success.

 

[Gregmal]

I would say that the VA and NJ gov races potentially indicate a threat to the energy crisis/super cycle thesis. People are wisening up and if certain types of politicians get enough support there will be drilling again. Its an easy problem to solve. The whole oil to $150-200 a barrel thesis is predicated on incompetence and misplaced(or deliberate) policy that promotes the restriction of traditional energy sources along with lots of free money. If that stops the opportunity is much less attractive. 

[thowed]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

I would say that the VA and NJ gov races potentially indicate a threat to the energy crisis/super cycle thesis. People are wisening up and if certain types of politicians get enough support there will be drilling again. Its an easy problem to solve. The whole oil to $150-200 a barrel thesis is predicated on incompetence and misplaced(or deliberate) policy that promotes the restriction of traditional energy sources along with lots of free money. If that stops the opportunity is much less attractive. 

Interesting thinking.  I imagine that this would be good for something like TPL?

[Gregmal]

3 minutes ago, thowed said:

Interesting thinking.  I imagine that this would be good for something like TPL?

Perhaps. I dont think we're there yet, but you want to look for the signs because sentiment always starts getting priced in well before the event. Going from ESG/Clean energy + covid disruption to drill, baby, drill could be wild. Look at the Obama era clean energy plays like WPRT and CLNE and their historic performance. Both are retail stocks but both give a good pulse on the difference between investing in those spaces during red control vs blue control. Many of the exit polls indicated people were over all the covid nonsense and their biggest concerns where the economy and high gas prices. So that may spark some rethought of the current stance, which is largely the tailwind you want here if long on the super cycle thesis. ESG by itself is cute, but you need several of the catalysts to come together for it to work. 

[KJP]

The more conservative way to look at this is via the pipeline owners.  Even if the Biden Administration, et al., ease up on new drilling, are they going to permit new interstate pipelines?  If not, the owners of existing pipelines seem to be in very good shape, particularly natural gas pipelines.

[Gregmal]

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3764295-its-difficult-to-predict-future-of-supply-issues-on-inflation-powell-press-conference

 

We were so certain about the transitory nature of inflation when we rammed all that policy nonsense down your throats. Now? Its hard to predict! LOL 

 

What's easy to predict is the incompetence of these guys!

[JRM]

OPEC is sitting on excess capacity, so all it would take is for them to pump more, like Biden wants.  

 

I don't think any energy policies are going to be reversed in the near term in the U.S.

Edited November 3, 2021 by JRM

[Spekulatius]

16 hours ago, JRM said:

OPEC is sitting on excess capacity, so all it would take is for them to pump more, like Biden wants.  

 

I don't think any energy policies are going to be reversed in the near term in the U.S.

My take is that the energy policies in the US have minimal impact on supply and demand for the next couple of years anyways. Any decisions/changes here are totally irrelevant for the near term supply situation.

[Gregmal]

Just when you think he cant outdo himself...

 

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3766872-biden-reportedly-considering-shutdown-of-enbridges-line-5-oil-pipeline

 

Oh, and to think his regime is using our tax dollars to pay people to research/study whether this would effect gas prices LOL....

[cubsfan]

^ Such a fool - and his solution is to beg the Saudi's and Russians for lower prices. 

 

So much for energy independence.

[Gregmal]

Just wait til the new stimmy lottery starts. Break the law for your chance to win $450,000! 

[cubsfan]

^ Hey - nothing like shitting all over Canada in the process!

[Castanza]

Merriam-Webster has been busy changing definitions the past two years. I think they should update the one for  "transitory". 

[Spekulatius]

Uggh:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/10/consumer-price-index-october.html

ECONOMY

 

Just my guess - if these numbers don't come down quickly, Powell is going to take the fall for it no matter the root cause.

U.S. consumer prices jump 6.2% in October, the biggest inflation surge in more than 30 years

Edited November 10, 2021 by Spekulatius

[wabuffo]

Biden = Carter,  Powell = G. William Miller (GIK!).   Disco must be making a comeback next.

 

wabuffo

Edited November 10, 2021 by wabuffo

[Gregmal]

It’s kind of ironic how the same people by and large who preached caring about and protecting others thru mask wearing and lockdowns basically sent the most vulnerable portion of the population to hell in a hand basket by voting for policies that any idiot with an IQ over 43 could have told you would have been disastrous. All because they didn’t like the other guys personality LOL. Not much sums up America better. My feelings >>>>>>your livelihood. 
 

However, if you’re smart and aware enough, it’s easy to mitigate this. I mean crude futures spent most of 2021 in backwardation because enough participants in the market believed the politicians and media with regard to the whole “transitory” narrative. Multi family still looks good. Land is good. Learn to love the stupidity of others and profit from it. 

[rkbabang]

25 minutes ago, wabuffo said:

Biden = Carter,  Powell = G. William Miller (GIK!).   Disco must be making a comeback next.

 

wabuffo

 

Where have you been?   This already started.  I was talking to my nephew this summer, he's in his early 20s, he said that him and his friends basically listen to only 70s music now.

 

Foo Fighters to release disco album as the Dee Gees

https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-57524428

 

[Spekulatius]

39 minutes ago, wabuffo said:

Biden = Carter,  Powell = G. William Miller (GIK!).   Disco must be making a comeback next.

 

wabuffo

And Trump = Nixon. Abba brought out a new record. Now things make sense. Maybe even the presidential sweater comes back.

 

Edited November 10, 2021 by Spekulatius

[Viking]

55 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Uggh:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/10/consumer-price-index-october.html

ECONOMY

 

Just my guess - if these numbers don't come down quickly, Powell is going to take the fall for it no matter the root cause.

U.S. consumer prices jump 6.2% in October, the biggest inflation surge in more than 30 years

The bond market is nuts. As it becomes clear inflation is NOT transitory how do bond yields stay low (across the curve)? Who puts their money in a vehicle that is guaranteed to lose them significant money (purchasing power)?

 

i get holding bonds if inflation is 1 or even 2%. But inflation running consistently at +4%? 
 

My guess is if we get a big sell off in financial markets it will be driven by a big spike in bond yields. Much higher bond yields would be a game changer.

 

Where is the ‘safety of principal’ or ‘adequate return’ parts (‘investment’ as defined by Graham).

Edited November 10, 2021 by Viking

[wabuffo]

As it becomes clear inflation is NOT transitory how do bond yields stay low?

 

We've talked about this ad nauseum.   Technical issues this year with the monetary plumbing.  Hard as it is to believe - there are not enough treasury securities in circulation for the private sector that wants them due to the TGA drawdown + debt ceiling blockage.   Should get resolved during 2022.

 

wabuffo