Kuppy on Inflation

[Gregmal]

Dont totally disagree with his sense of the macro, I just dont play macro. Even though many of the underlying themes in what I invest in, happen to consider the macro LOL. 

 

Respect his process though and definitely think he gets a bad rap largely from folks whom are jealous or dont know him. 

[gfp]

A belated wind-down of Mongolia Growth Group (CA: YAK)

 

https://www.mongoliagrowthgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/Farewell-letter-.pdf

 

https://www.mongoliagrowthgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/MGG-press-release-August-5-2025.pdf

 

 

Edited August 5, 2025 by gfp

[thowed]

Quite confused about 'Finca Kuppy' which had always appeared to be his.  But only idle curiosity, no stake in the game.

[gfp]

49 minutes ago, thowed said:

Quite confused about 'Finca Kuppy' which had always appeared to be his.  But only idle curiosity, no stake in the game.

 

Finca Kuppy is vacant land in PR that is his.  He also has a house in PR that is his.  The property in the letter that he is offering to buy is the office space in PR they run the hedge fund and 'KEDM' out of.  

[winjitsu]

Recent letter from his fund: https://go.pracap.com/hubfs/Quarterly Letters/2025/2025 Q2 Investor Letter - Approved v2.pdf

 

I thought it was a good meditation and reflection on what has been working for him so far. 

[This2ShallPass]

18 hours ago, winjitsu said:

Recent letter from his fund: https://go.pracap.com/hubfs/Quarterly Letters/2025/2025 Q2 Investor Letter - Approved v2.pdf

 

I thought it was a good meditation and reflection on what has been working for him so far. 

I thought it was a really good read too. It's like seeing someone w multiple personalities...the guy you see on X is very different than the one that wrote this thoughtful letter:)

 

The openness with which he accepted his mistakes was nice to see. It also helped me reflect and think about what mistakes I'm doing. 

[Spekulatius]

Event driven either works really well or does not work at all.

[Dalal.Holdings]

Well Kuppy is better than most in admitting something is wrong and “rebooting”.

 

His tweets and appearances have been all about macro pontification which probably also explains the underperformance
 

I also question folks diving into fundamentally garbage businesses like offshore drillers, etc outside of short term trades

[gfp]

"Another thing I think should be avoided is extremely intense ideology because it cabbages up one's mind... when you announce that you're a loyal member and you start shouting the orthodox ideology out, what you're doing is pounding it in, pounding it in, and you're gradually ruining your mind."

 

Charlie's quote seems to apply.  Having a big public presence on your big portfolio positions doesn't make it easier to change your mind or think critically about your largest positions.

 

 

If I were an investor in this fund, the constant reboots and stated desire to run the fund more like a personal account and use the "gut" more wouldn't make me feel more comfortable.  He has a money weighted return problem.  If you raise a bunch of money and then underperform, the actual results are a lot worse than the reported results.  Just ask Pabrai.

[Dalal.Holdings]

He's the kind of guy who would probably make a killing running his own money (in fact he did).

 

The problem is he took on other people's money, has a staff of analysts and other people who do the thinking now while he's become a sort of public persona who spends time tweeting, going on podcasts, discussing broad macro topics, etc.

 

The size of the fund is also likely a detractor.

[This2ShallPass]

On 8/15/2025 at 5:31 AM, gfp said:

 If you raise a bunch of money and then underperform, the actual results are a lot worse than the reported results.  Just ask Pabrai.

Unless he raised most of his money in the last 2 years, I don't think this is true. He shot the lights out in recent years, even 2022 was up 12% net. Unreal returns, 1200% gross and 760% net from 2019.

[gfp]

12 hours ago, This2ShallPass said:

Unless he raised most of his money in the last 2 years, I don't think this is true. He shot the lights out in recent years, even 2022 was up 12% net. Unreal returns, 1200% gross and 760% net from 2019.

 

I guess you are right about him not raising a ton of money near the top.  It looks like the highest his AUM reached was $382m in May 2024.  It was $197m year end 2022.  Down to $283m end of July 2025.  So 26% off the high but I don't know how much of that was redemptions.

 

Basically flat for 4 years

 

Edited August 17, 2025 by gfp

[Ulti]

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/doom-and-gloom-sells-guest-kuppy/id1444520320?i=1000723194238