Have We Hit The Top?

[Spekulatius]

I am pretty sure that allowing Walmart to sell Fentanyl by the pound would make the drug epidemic worse not better. There is a paper about the Fentanyl epidemic in Estonia where shutting down the supply was key to reducing the drug problem, but of course no panacea. What is interceding about Estonia is that the country is so small and also has pretty good records that one can actually see the impact of shutting down one major supply source which happened to be domestic.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32416523/

 

Quote

Results: For an over a decade up to 2017, Estonia has had the highest overdose death mortality in Europe. The use of (injected) fentanyl is a major contributor to the Estonian overdose death epidemic. Shutting down a major producer and distributor of illicit fentanyl has been extremely effective in curbing the number of overdose deaths. Unfortunately, this supply-side intervention came ten years into the epidemic, and might be difficult to replicate in settings with decentralized production.

 

But what do I know - cirumstances are always different and what may work in one country may not work in another. However data like this can be useful to determine a course of action.

[Junior R]

4 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

We must be getting close:

 

I think same playbook as 2021 where market peaked end of Dec ..Early Jan...right now everyone is chasing any stock to get good performance for 2024

[Junior R]

12 hours ago, Red Lion said:

I've been trimming some big winners in my 401k and raised 40% cash which is currently parked in very short duration T-bills. I also raised some cash in taxable accounts by doing a cash-out refi on an investment property at 60% LTV (at 6.6% APR on a 30 year mortgage). It's been a good several years, and so far I'm up 36% in 2024 after a great 2022 and 2023. 

 

I'm honestly not market timing, but unfortunately my favorite investments are all priced, if not for perfection, at least for an excellent future, and I have a quite concentrated stock portfolio. I'm not a full time investor, although it feels like my most important job these days. I plan to spend time doing more research and deploy most of this capital opportunistically. 

 

I'm sure I'll find something more attractive than T-bills in fairly short order. If I don't find something compelling, I'll probably get back to selling short duration puts while I continue looking. 

 

Right now my largest publicly traded positions are JOE, APO, OWL, BTI, PM, CPT, OXY/WT, but my stock allocation is the lowest it's been in the last few years. I've taken significant profits from APO, OWL, and PM over the last few weeks, and some less significant profits on a few other smaller positions. 

with 3 month tbills paying over 4% in 401k not really a big losses with all the gains people have made after covid..The biggest problem right now is many stocks are trading at forward multiples at a high or multiples never seen before...The real thing is if DOGE makes the government more efficient that is going to increase unemployment ...There has been so many government jobs created in Biden's term what does this do to the economy ...Also every year something gives some great companies a big discount ...APO went to $90 in August from $120 and then recovered 

[Gregmal]

So after hearing nonstop about “soaring rates” and “bond market vigilantes”(whatever the heck that means) because rates went from low 4s to mid 4s, we ve now retraced some, despite obviously hearing nothing about the “crash”….end of the day, high 3s, or mid 4s on rates is pretty uneventful and meaningless; just another reminder to avoid getting manipulated by the news of the day or the noise of the crowds. 

[Malmqky]

21 hours ago, Junior R said:

with 3 month tbills paying over 4% in 401k not really a big losses with all the gains people have made after covid..The biggest problem right now is many stocks are trading at forward multiples at a high or multiples never seen before...The real thing is if DOGE makes the government more efficient that is going to increase unemployment ...There has been so many government jobs created in Biden's term what does this do to the economy ...Also every year something gives some great companies a big discount ...APO went to $90 in August from $120 and then recovered 

Next time a great company is at a big discount let me know

 

These things are tough to see in the moment.

[Red Lion]

2 hours ago, Malmqky said:

Next time a great company is at a big discount let me know

 

These things are tough to see in the moment.

 

We were both posting about APO and buying shares over on the APO thread and the what are you buying thread and the banking thread. 

 

I wish I had an idea like this now. 

[Junior R]

1 hour ago, Red Lion said:

 

We were both posting about APO and buying shares over on the APO thread and the what are you buying thread and the banking thread. 

 

I wish I had an idea like this now. 

 

3 hours ago, Malmqky said:

Next time a great company is at a big discount let me know

 

These things are tough to see in the moment.

It will come but maybe not in Dec 

[Malmqky]

1 hour ago, Red Lion said:

 

We were both posting about APO and buying shares over on the APO thread and the what are you buying thread and the banking thread. 

 

I wish I had an idea like this now. 

I remember!

 

Reading my comment back, I think I came off wrong. I meant it’s hard for ME to see these in the moment. Not implying you/junior didn't catch this one.

[changegonnacome]

 

You know your in trouble when Jeremy Siegel is calling for S&P in 2025 to return 0 to 10%

 

If Tom Lee or Dan Ives....comes out and says anything less than 20% return for SPY in 2025.....I'm selling everything