Have We Hit The Top?

[Spekulatius]

I am pretty sure that allowing Walmart to sell Fentanyl by the pound would make the drug epidemic worse not better. There is a paper about the Fentanyl epidemic in Estonia where shutting down the supply was key to reducing the drug problem, but of course no panacea. What is interceding about Estonia is that the country is so small and also has pretty good records that one can actually see the impact of shutting down one major supply source which happened to be domestic.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32416523/

 

Quote

Results: For an over a decade up to 2017, Estonia has had the highest overdose death mortality in Europe. The use of (injected) fentanyl is a major contributor to the Estonian overdose death epidemic. Shutting down a major producer and distributor of illicit fentanyl has been extremely effective in curbing the number of overdose deaths. Unfortunately, this supply-side intervention came ten years into the epidemic, and might be difficult to replicate in settings with decentralized production.

 

But what do I know - cirumstances are always different and what may work in one country may not work in another. However data like this can be useful to determine a course of action.

[Junior R]

4 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

We must be getting close:

 

I think same playbook as 2021 where market peaked end of Dec ..Early Jan...right now everyone is chasing any stock to get good performance for 2024

[Junior R]

12 hours ago, Red Lion said:

I've been trimming some big winners in my 401k and raised 40% cash which is currently parked in very short duration T-bills. I also raised some cash in taxable accounts by doing a cash-out refi on an investment property at 60% LTV (at 6.6% APR on a 30 year mortgage). It's been a good several years, and so far I'm up 36% in 2024 after a great 2022 and 2023. 

 

I'm honestly not market timing, but unfortunately my favorite investments are all priced, if not for perfection, at least for an excellent future, and I have a quite concentrated stock portfolio. I'm not a full time investor, although it feels like my most important job these days. I plan to spend time doing more research and deploy most of this capital opportunistically. 

 

I'm sure I'll find something more attractive than T-bills in fairly short order. If I don't find something compelling, I'll probably get back to selling short duration puts while I continue looking. 

 

Right now my largest publicly traded positions are JOE, APO, OWL, BTI, PM, CPT, OXY/WT, but my stock allocation is the lowest it's been in the last few years. I've taken significant profits from APO, OWL, and PM over the last few weeks, and some less significant profits on a few other smaller positions. 

with 3 month tbills paying over 4% in 401k not really a big losses with all the gains people have made after covid..The biggest problem right now is many stocks are trading at forward multiples at a high or multiples never seen before...The real thing is if DOGE makes the government more efficient that is going to increase unemployment ...There has been so many government jobs created in Biden's term what does this do to the economy ...Also every year something gives some great companies a big discount ...APO went to $90 in August from $120 and then recovered 

[Gregmal]

So after hearing nonstop about “soaring rates” and “bond market vigilantes”(whatever the heck that means) because rates went from low 4s to mid 4s, we ve now retraced some, despite obviously hearing nothing about the “crash”….end of the day, high 3s, or mid 4s on rates is pretty uneventful and meaningless; just another reminder to avoid getting manipulated by the news of the day or the noise of the crowds. 

[Malmqky]

21 hours ago, Junior R said:

with 3 month tbills paying over 4% in 401k not really a big losses with all the gains people have made after covid..The biggest problem right now is many stocks are trading at forward multiples at a high or multiples never seen before...The real thing is if DOGE makes the government more efficient that is going to increase unemployment ...There has been so many government jobs created in Biden's term what does this do to the economy ...Also every year something gives some great companies a big discount ...APO went to $90 in August from $120 and then recovered 

Next time a great company is at a big discount let me know

 

These things are tough to see in the moment.

[Red Lion]

2 hours ago, Malmqky said:

Next time a great company is at a big discount let me know

 

These things are tough to see in the moment.

 

We were both posting about APO and buying shares over on the APO thread and the what are you buying thread and the banking thread. 

 

I wish I had an idea like this now. 

[Junior R]

1 hour ago, Red Lion said:

 

We were both posting about APO and buying shares over on the APO thread and the what are you buying thread and the banking thread. 

 

I wish I had an idea like this now. 

 

3 hours ago, Malmqky said:

Next time a great company is at a big discount let me know

 

These things are tough to see in the moment.

It will come but maybe not in Dec 

[Malmqky]

1 hour ago, Red Lion said:

 

We were both posting about APO and buying shares over on the APO thread and the what are you buying thread and the banking thread. 

 

I wish I had an idea like this now. 

I remember!

 

Reading my comment back, I think I came off wrong. I meant it’s hard for ME to see these in the moment. Not implying you/junior didn't catch this one.

[changegonnacome]

 

You know your in trouble when Jeremy Siegel is calling for S&P in 2025 to return 0 to 10%

 

If Tom Lee or Dan Ives....comes out and says anything less than 20% return for SPY in 2025.....I'm selling everything

[Luke]

Benjamin Graham - The retarded investor

 

Congrats for Bitcoin Holders!

[Paarslaars]

BTC has 4y cycles and each cycle it reaches ATHs.

This is to be expected and is not that related to the market.

[Luke]

 

[Luke]

My fundamental chart and trend analysis tells you are wrong @Paarslaars, there is a significant correlation! xD

[Luke]

On 12/2/2024 at 11:09 PM, changegonnacome said:

 

You know your in trouble when Jeremy Siegel is calling for S&P in 2025 to return 0 to 10%

 

If Tom Lee or Dan Ives....comes out and says anything less than 20% return for SPY in 2025.....I'm selling everything

Lol, i thought the SP 500 would only do 5% max in 2024!!!

 

I also thought china would outperform the SP 500 this year but the Hang Seng sits at 17% while SP 500 sits at ballzy 28%...

 

 

[Spekulatius]

Have to post this again:

[maplevalue]

https://app.rosenbergresearch.com/dashboard/publication-details/08dd1548-599a-442a-8448-24e8630bc36b?bucketId=08dcb188-f40e-40bf-8e74-af88ab237f7c&featureIds=2290f675-fc5d-452e-aca0-acd6455fa76c&publiclyAvailable=true
 

Feels top-ish

[Spooky]

On 12/5/2024 at 10:56 AM, Luke said:

Benjamin Graham - The retarded investor

 

Congrats for Bitcoin Holders!

 

Sign of the top?

[Spooky]

20 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Have to post this again:

 

This made me laugh!

[73 Reds]

3 minutes ago, Spooky said:

 

Sign of the top?

So reminiscent of Y2K and the dot.com era.  

[longlake95]

I've recently had a few "no nothing" investors asking me about AI stocks. Very reminiscent of 2000. I don't think it's at a fever pitch yet though. 

[Junior R]

don't come at me for this one....but what if the dot.com bubble is the current crypto market where right now none of them are actually making money with no use cases...Maybe couple years down the road it could be used in the real world lol...

Edited December 6 by Junior R

[Milu]

My completely unscientific investor's intuition is that things 'feel' a little frothy at the moment. Crypto markets are on the tear again, memecoins and memestocks are back in action. Stock markets hitting high after high. Expectations for a golden age during trumps presidency. Credit spreads quite low.

 

I'm not going to be selling any of my positions but I always start to get a bit fearful during these times. Not doing too much stock research either. Might just put the feet up for a couple of years and let me existing holdings continue higher and then come back once the next crisis kicks off. Cash as a percentage of assets has declined from about 30% to 23% over the past while purely down to increases in my stocks and other investments.

[John Hjorth]

On 12/2/2024 at 11:09 PM, changegonnacome said:

 

You know your in trouble when Jeremy Siegel is calling for S&P in 2025 to return 0 to 10%

 

If Tom Lee or Dan Ives....comes out and says anything less than 20% return for SPY in 2025.....I'm selling everything

 

On 12/5/2024 at 12:03 PM, Luke said:

Lol, i thought the SP 500 would only do 5% max in 2024!!!

 

I also thought china would outperform the SP 500 this year but the Hang Seng sits at 17% while SP 500 sits at ballzy 28%...

 

 

 

Yes, @changegonnacome & Luke [ @Luke ],

 

Listening to people trying to guess or to 'forecast' what the S&P500 will do in 2025 is a fool's errand and waste of time, because nobody knows.

[Gregmal]

I cant help but think part of the problem people have keeping up with the index or really any semi competitive benchmark is that every tick up we're worried about it being "the top" and every tick down is "the start of the crash"....Seems like a recipe for failure but a cure for ones ADHD in terms of always being busy. 

[LC]

3 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

I cant help but think part of the problem people have keeping up with the index or really any semi competitive benchmark is that every tick up we're worried about it being "the top" and every tick down is "the start of the crash"....Seems like a recipe for failure but a cure for ones ADHD in terms of always being busy. 

Well yes but for folks like myself who are stuck with a chunk of assets with very few investable options (cash vs. SP500 are the best ones) - the level of the index is important.

 

Remember kids - don't let financial advisors convince you/your family to buy into convoluted investment structures!