Leaving New York City

[rb]

After reading through this, I felt like I wasted my 20s.

;D

 

we all did.  but truth be known, we are better off for it

OH YEAH!!!

 

I'm from about the same cohort as merkhet, pupil and BG. I'm had shall we say a similar experience. Great times! But I've done my banking "apprenticeship" in London so it was a different vibe. I didn't feel I had the right to talk about it since this is a thread about the city that never sleeps. Though I didn't get much sleep in London either  ;D

[BG2008]

Living in NYC is no different to living in a London, Paris, Milan, Sydney,  Barcelona, etc.

If you are a young person and shopping for a mate, this is where you want to be .... but it's a limited term engagement (6-7 yrs at most). You are also a big chunk of the annual churn - once you've decided to settle down you're renting in the burbs, 'cause kids are expensive!

 

If most WFH and zoom all day - both the opportunities and the pool of potential mates in NYC just crashed.

F*** It!, live in the burbs, travel to NYC on the weekend, and just rent a room in the DT on saturday night. Hotels are hurting, deals are abundant, and you look 'smart'. Not paying inflated rents, no car to maintain, discretionary cashflow, yada, yada. Common practice.

 

6-7 years? Graduate at 24/25 with a masters/designation, if the family hasn't started by 30/31 it isn't going to.

Better get to it - 'cause the clock is ticking!

 

Does it come back? Sure, but anyone's guess as to when

Is it cheap? Compared to what, and is the comparative relevant

 

SD

 

I think you are describing the bridge and tunnel people, ugg second class citizen in the dating pool.  Chicks don't dig!

 

NYC RE is one of those things that smart finance people can't wrap their head around.  But my seemingly dumb parents and relatives with elementary education understands instinctively.  Because they see ability to raise rent over time (okay not this year, but long term) and they ain't building more land in NYC.  To really appreciate how good of a business it is, you have to kind of dumb yourself down and take off your "smart value investor hat."  I mean this in a tongue and cheek way, but I am totally serious about it as well.  Because my parents who dropped out of school at first and 5th grade understand these dynamics much better than I did.  I told them about cap rates blah blah blah.  Over 10 years, I realized that a lot of my personal wealth comes from the long term appreciation of owning RE in NYC. 

[Gregmal]

Not trying to be the smartest guy in the market was some of the best advice I ever received when it came to investing. You kind of want to be a jack of all traits but a master of none.

[BG2008]

Not trying to be the smartest guy in the market was some of the best advice I ever received when it came to investing. You kind of want to be a jack of all traits but a master of none.

 

I think you want to be a jack of all trades but a journeyman of 2-3 niches.  I happen to be a journeyman of RE niche, specialty chemicals, and distribution density of sorts. 

[cubsfan]

I thought Illinois was bad - this is frickin' crazy:

 

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/11/25/nyc-to-have-coronavirus-checkpoints-sheriff-warns-of-consequences-for-violating-quarantine/

 

“Violation of a self-quarantine travel regulation may result in deputy sheriffs serving you a mandatory quarantine order issued by the Health Commissioner. In cases of violation, Deputies could serve you with a civil summons that carries a $1,000 fine,” he said, although he emphasized that officers will be focusing primarily on large gatherings:

[cwericb]

Around here, violate quarantine first time - $1,000, second time, $2,000, third time $!0,000. I only know of one person caught 3 times and I don't know about the fine but I do know he had an extended stay in the crowbar hotel.

[SharperDingaan]

Late at night, she just doesn't want to tip her hand that she's from across the tunnel or the bridge  ;D

Free drinks, and saves on the hotel room - smart women!

 

SD

 

[Gregmal]

I thought Illinois was bad - this is frickin' crazy:

 

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/11/25/nyc-to-have-coronavirus-checkpoints-sheriff-warns-of-consequences-for-violating-quarantine/

 

“Violation of a self-quarantine travel regulation may result in deputy sheriffs serving you a mandatory quarantine order issued by the Health Commissioner. In cases of violation, Deputies could serve you with a civil summons that carries a $1,000 fine,” he said, although he emphasized that officers will be focusing primarily on large gatherings:

 

Unfortunately, in our states, you cant present a firearm to an uninvited guest even if its on your own property. But I do have a Tibetan Mastiff and would be happy so see one of these unwanted "inspectors" meet him. Would be especially entertaining for everyone during Thanksgiving festivities. Mind your own damn business and you'll be safe.

[muscleman]

Not just NYC, I noticed a massive exodus of Seattle as well. Just check redfin listings for Seattle. Lots of listings, especially condos, with hardly any buyer taking a tour.

[cwericb]

The real estate market in Atlantic Canada has been on fire as people from across the country and elsewhere see the area as a relatively safe place from the virus.

 

People are buying houses site unseen just to get authorization to move into the area. Prices are up 20%+ in the past year. The construction industry is booming and many contractors are booked over a year ahead. This has also fed an increased demand for furniture and all the other necessities required by new people moving into the area.

 

Ironically this has gone a long way to offset the losses the tourism industry has suffered. It seems to show that taking steps to control the virus is not necessarily detrimental to the economy.

[Cardboard]

Cwericb, that is about the most delusional post that I have read in a long time.

 

No one is "immigrating" to Atlantic Canada pushing up prices because no one wants to go there.

 

Now, getting back to the real cause of price increase it is because people are moving out of condos to suburbs and it makes detached homes to go up in price or a global phenomenon. Then condo prices have not adjusted yet to lower demand reality because of price anchoring.

 

Cardboard

[rb]

Cwericb, that is about the most delusional post that I have read in a long time.

 

No one is "immigrating" to Atlantic Canada pushing up prices because no one wants to go there.

 

Now, getting back to the real cause of price increase it is because people are moving out of condos to suburbs and it makes detached homes to go up in price or a global phenomenon. Then condo prices have not adjusted yet to lower demand reality because of price anchoring.

 

Cardboard

Please, tell us more oh ye great one! While we wait:

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/609158/number-of-immigrants-in-new-brunswick/

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/609156/number-of-immigrants-in-nova-scotia/

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/609153/number-of-immigrants-in-prince-edward-island/#:~:text=This%20statistic%20shows%20the%20number,immigrants%20to%20Prince%20Edward%20Island.

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/609051/number-of-immigrants-in-newfoundland-and-labrador/

[fareastwarriors]

Not just NYC, I noticed a massive exodus of Seattle as well. Just check redfin listings for Seattle. Lots of listings, especially condos, with hardly any buyer taking a tour.

 

Make sense though. Large city with many renters, large population of young and single people and high cost. But I bet Seattle suburbs are white hot.

 

I'm throwing 700k cash offers at 3bed/1bath 1,000 sq ft houses  in the east bay of San Francisco. I'm not even competitive apparently...

 

[Spekulatius]

Not just NYC, I noticed a massive exodus of Seattle as well. Just check redfin listings for Seattle. Lots of listings, especially condos, with hardly any buyer taking a tour.

 

Make sense though. Large city with many renters, large population of young and single people and high cost. But I bet Seattle suburbs are white hot.

 

I'm throwing 700k cash offers at 3bed/1bath 1,000 sq ft houses  in the east bay of San Francisco. I'm not even competitive apparently...

 

Suburbs have largely lacked the price appreciating that Appartement or houses in the city areas had. I lived in Long Island and now in Boston area and in both cases, houses were still below ~2005 prices.  I think RE in thr city core might have doubled with8b the same time frame. If this trend reverses, it could have a long way to go, but I somehow doubt that it will.

[alpha]

Cwericb, that is about the most delusional post that I have read in a long time.

 

No one is "immigrating" to Atlantic Canada pushing up prices because no one wants to go there.

 

Now, getting back to the real cause of price increase it is because people are moving out of condos to suburbs and it makes detached homes to go up in price or a global phenomenon. Then condo prices have not adjusted yet to lower demand reality because of price anchoring.

 

Cardboard

 

I don't know about the East Coast but I have been getting into bidding wars for houses on Canada's West Coast and the realtors tell me it is mostly out of province/country bidders I am competing with... people fleeing Toronto/Vancouver etc...

 

 

[patience_and_focus]

Not just NYC, I noticed a massive exodus of Seattle as well. Just check redfin listings for Seattle. Lots of listings, especially condos, with hardly any buyer taking a tour.

 

Make sense though. Large city with many renters, large population of young and single people and high cost. But I bet Seattle suburbs are white hot.

 

I'm throwing 700k cash offers at 3bed/1bath 1,000 sq ft houses  in the east bay of San Francisco. I'm not even competitive apparently...

 

Suburbs have largely lacked the price appreciating that Appartement or houses in the city areas had. I lived in Long Island and now in Boston area and in both cases, houses were still below ~2005 prices.  I think RE in thr city core might have doubled with8b the same time frame. If this trend reverses, it could have a long way to go, but I somehow doubt that it will.

 

Actually good bay area suburban housing has been on fire since a couple of years after the GFC. The suburban city of Burlingame (17 miles south of San Francisco) has seen a 2.5X price rise for single family homes in the last 10 years (Dec-2010 to now). That is annualized appreciation of nearly 10%. If you take last 25 years for this suburb that number comes to about 7.5% annualized which is rivaling S&P returns (without dividends reinvested of-course).

 

https://www.zillow.com/burlingame-ca/home-values/

 

For comparison San Francisco (SF) has appreciated "only" 2X in the last 10 years for single family homes (7.5% annualized) and about 4X in the last 25 years (for a return of 6% annualized).

 

SF Zillow:

https://www.zillow.com/san-francisco-ca/home-values/

 

SF Case Shiller:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SFXRSA

[cwericb]

 

Cwericb, that is about the most delusional post that I have read in a long time.

 

No one is "immigrating" to Atlantic Canada pushing up prices because no one wants to go there.

 

Now, getting back to the real cause of price increase it is because people are moving out of condos to suburbs and it makes detached homes to go up in price or a global phenomenon. Then condo prices have not adjusted yet to lower demand reality because of price anchoring.

 

Cardboard

 

Good Morning Cadboard

 

Once again you are embarrassing yourself with your insults and your sadly ill informed opinions. Still hiding in your basement?

 

Perhaps you know more than the Financial Post, but here is what they say...

 

"Atlantic Canada’s housing market on fire as buyers from across the country swoop in to snap up homes."

 

https://financialpost.com/real-estate/how-the-pandemic-lit-the-fire-of-a-red-hot-real-estate-market-inside-the-atlantic-bubble

 

Here are a few other headlines just to help you out...

 

“How the pandemic 'lit the fire' of a red-hot real estate market inside the Atlantic bubble” 

 

“Atlantic bubble fuelling red hot Maritime real estate market”

 

“Booming Halifax housing market shows no signs of slowing ...”

 

Now who is delusional?

 

By the way, how is the real estate market doing in your area these days?

 

Cwericb

 

[bizaro86]

Not just NYC, I noticed a massive exodus of Seattle as well. Just check redfin listings for Seattle. Lots of listings, especially condos, with hardly any buyer taking a tour.

 

Make sense though. Large city with many renters, large population of young and single people and high cost. But I bet Seattle suburbs are white hot.

 

I'm throwing 700k cash offers at 3bed/1bath 1,000 sq ft houses  in the east bay of San Francisco. I'm not even competitive apparently...

 

Suburbs have largely lacked the price appreciating that Appartement or houses in the city areas had. I lived in Long Island and now in Boston area and in both cases, houses were still below ~2005 prices.  I think RE in thr city core might have doubled with8b the same time frame. If this trend reverses, it could have a long way to go, but I somehow doubt that it will.

 

Actually good bay area suburban housing has been on fire since a couple of years after the GFC. The suburban city of Burlingame (17 miles south of San Francisco) has seen a 2.5X price rise for single family homes in the last 10 years (Dec-2010 to now). That is annualized appreciation of nearly 10%. If you take last 25 years for this suburb that number comes to about 7.5% annualized which is rivaling S&P returns (without dividends reinvested of-course).

 

https://www.zillow.com/burlingame-ca/home-values/

 

For comparison San Francisco (SF) has appreciated "only" 2X in the last 10 years for single family homes (7.5% annualized) and about 4X in the last 25 years (for a return of 6% annualized).

 

SF Zillow:

https://www.zillow.com/san-francisco-ca/home-values/

 

SF Case Shiller:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SFXRSA

 

If you bought a house with no leverage (and thus only received that unleveraged appreciation) I think its pretty likely the net cash flow from rent (or rent avoided) would have been at least comparable to the dividends received from the S&P.

[clutch]

I wish more people flee out of Toronto where I'm living. Less traffic, less competition for high paying jobs, and hopefully less real estate prices so I could finally afford to buy a home within the city.

[muscleman]

Not just NYC, I noticed a massive exodus of Seattle as well. Just check redfin listings for Seattle. Lots of listings, especially condos, with hardly any buyer taking a tour.

 

Make sense though. Large city with many renters, large population of young and single people and high cost. But I bet Seattle suburbs are white hot.

 

I'm throwing 700k cash offers at 3bed/1bath 1,000 sq ft houses  in the east bay of San Francisco. I'm not even competitive apparently...

 

Right. Seattle Suburbs are white hot not only because of the virus but also because of the socialism movement in Seattle, with BLM protesters matching into communities and yelling door to door "Move your white ass out of the house and give your stocks to us, because it belongs to us"

[DooDiligence]

Not just NYC, I noticed a massive exodus of Seattle as well. Just check redfin listings for Seattle. Lots of listings, especially condos, with hardly any buyer taking a tour.

 

Make sense though. Large city with many renters, large population of young and single people and high cost. But I bet Seattle suburbs are white hot.

 

I'm throwing 700k cash offers at 3bed/1bath 1,000 sq ft houses  in the east bay of San Francisco. I'm not even competitive apparently...

 

Right. Seattle Suburbs are white hot not only because of the virus but also because of the socialism movement in Seattle, with BLM protesters matching into communities and yelling door to door "Move your white ass out of the house and give your stocks to us, because it belongs to us"

 

Meanwhile in the real world.

 

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-30/brookfield-pays-365-million-for-facebook-office-outside-seattle

[LearningMachine]

Not just NYC, I noticed a massive exodus of Seattle as well. Just check redfin listings for Seattle. Lots of listings, especially condos, with hardly any buyer taking a tour.

 

Make sense though. Large city with many renters, large population of young and single people and high cost. But I bet Seattle suburbs are white hot.

 

I'm throwing 700k cash offers at 3bed/1bath 1,000 sq ft houses  in the east bay of San Francisco. I'm not even competitive apparently...

 

Right. Seattle Suburbs are white hot not only because of the virus but also because of the socialism movement in Seattle, with BLM protesters matching into communities and yelling door to door "Move your white ass out of the house and give your stocks to us, because it belongs to us"

 

BLM protests were just in one block, that too a while back, and overwhelming majority of folks participating were white.  Yes, there is a small risk that City of Seattle itself could have a tiny income tax sometime in the future, but so far WA State Supreme Court has been shooting it down, and keeping City of Seattle as well as WA state income tax free.

 

There are two key items impacting decision-making the most currently:

 

• #1. Post-Covid WFH policy changes: The crux that is impacting decision-making most is post-Covid permanent Work-From-Home announcements.  No-one wants to pay for being 15-minutes to Amazon, Microsoft, Facebook, or Google anymore.  Because of announcements by Google, Facebook, and Microsoft that post-Covid, people don't have to come to office every day permanently, folks who used to look for housing within 15-minutes, are willing to look farther out, as much as 60 minutes for their dream house, especially if they have family.  People are buying all the way in Kitsap Peninsula, Island County, and farther up North in Snohomish County, even Skagit County.  Number of options have gone up by orders of magnitude.  1-mile radius for being able to walk to work used to cover only pi square miles.  30-mile radius covers 900pi square miles. 
   
  
• #2. Avoid multifamily due to Covid risk: Currently folks also want to avoid high-density due to Covid risk.  However, once we are all vaccinated, this trend will stop.
  

 

Because #2 trend will stop soon and reverse itself, while #1 trend will continue, there will be a net-effective increase in supply of housing.  In Detroit, 20% vacancy/supply caused a huge drop in real estate.  The price drop will be felt even in the suburbs immediately close to Microsoft, Google, Facebook and Amazon.  Post-vaccine, the only winner I see is exurbs, and that might not be very big either because effective overall supply has gone up for well-paid folks who won't have to go to office every day.

[SharperDingaan]

Just to throw it out ...

 

There are a great many towns in the Toronto Golden Horseshoe where developers are offering the penthouse floors of new built/to-be-built condos at very attractive incentives. 35-40%+ discounts, taken as either free upgrades or extended periods of reduced condo fees. If the intent going into retirement; is to either flip the SFH (now too big), or the newly acquired condo; it can be very attractive  ;)

 

Think outside the box a bit.

 

SD

 

 

 

[LearningMachine]

Not just NYC, I noticed a massive exodus of Seattle as well. Just check redfin listings for Seattle. Lots of listings, especially condos, with hardly any buyer taking a tour.

 

Make sense though. Large city with many renters, large population of young and single people and high cost. But I bet Seattle suburbs are white hot.

 

I'm throwing 700k cash offers at 3bed/1bath 1,000 sq ft houses  in the east bay of San Francisco. I'm not even competitive apparently...

 

Right. Seattle Suburbs are white hot not only because of the virus but also because of the socialism movement in Seattle, with BLM protesters matching into communities and yelling door to door "Move your white ass out of the house and give your stocks to us, because it belongs to us"

 

Meanwhile in the real world.

 

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-30/brookfield-pays-365-million-for-facebook-office-outside-seattle

 

Facebook's WFH announcements and having desirable office-space are not entirely inconsistent.  Younger folks do like to go into office once in a while to socialize.  What will be different now is that the younger talent won't be required to come into office every day, and won't pay $3000 rent to be at a walkable distance to Facebook office building.

 

In the meantime, within Facebook in the real world, after the WFH policy announcements, there has been such a tremendous demand for requesting permanent WFH processing that Facebook had to structure it in waves, and put people on waitlist for future waves, which will take months to process even though they are processing as fast as they can.

 

Just imagine what the residential demand next to Facebook buildings will look like once Facebook has gone through all the internal permanent WFH processing waves.

 

Microsoft doesn't require any processing for WFH up to 50%.  So, once folks are vaccinated, taking away pressure from people's desire to avoid multifamily, imagine what will happen to residential demand next to Microsoft buildings.  If we get vaccinated by March, effects of increased supply of options should start to show up next summer.

[Gregmal]

I dont know how much one can take from the current situation other than simply acknowledging that some of these things already existed and will just progress with time. Covid is only a short term headwind. But the larger trends of high taxes in some of the places, anti business policy, and now violence...are bad, but will too pass.

 

The current opportunity depends on your time horizon, and big baller status. Guys who answer to no one and who have shown to be opportunistic, like Flatt, Bezos, Zuck, etc.... theyre active and buying. They see that things will go back to normal, eventually. But other than that, who is going to pull the trigger today? If you're a Sr VP and heading up the division responsible for managing RE and signing leases, no way in hell you're going to be the guy who signs a lease in the middle of a pandemic; raging civil unrest, unprecedented violence, and widespread lockdowns... how do you explain that to your boss, who then has to explain that to the CEO, who then has to answer to the Board, who then has to answer to short term centric shareholders?

 

Everything really makes sense within context. Its not surprising, its an easy opportunity, but I dont think it will be get rich quick.