Real World Anecdotes

[arcube]

You think this is because of low mortgage rates?

 

re: new home sales in Orange County (coastal Southern California), I stopped by several sales offices at the Great Park on Saturday, May 30th.  Here are some notes:

-May was a very busy and successful month for them.

-One sales office was so busy that they had to hire a temp to assistant with walk-ins.

-Homes in the $800,000 range are selling very well.

-Buyers were looking to close escrow quickly (within 45 days), rather than waiting 90+ days for their home to be built.

-Homebuilders were not offering concessions, other than some money for closing costs, etc. 

 

The Great Park is located in Irvine and is owned Five Point Holdings (FPH), which was spun off from Lennar in 2017. 

 

BTW, I own stock in FPH.

[sarganaga]

Getting ready to list a condo in Carlsbad CA in the ~$550,000 - $600,000 range. Broker says it's a seller's market with limited inventory. Offering me 3 1/2% total commission to list. We'll see how it goes.

[BG2008]

I have a considerably smaller sample size, but I got 100% of my rents for April. And one tenant who hasn't paid on time for a year paid on the 1st.

 

For tenants who have lost their jobs, the CERB is $2000/month for 4 months. For a family with 2 adults, that's $4k/month. Someone working full time 40 hours/wk at minimum wage ($15/hr) only has a gross of $2500/month. So between taxes and payroll deductions and missing a shift many/most renters are as good or better off financially than they were. Even tenants in higher end professions seem to be mostly working from home, getting full pay, and saving money on commuting, lunches out, etc.

 

The piper will have to be paid for this eventually, but for now it seems OK. I think next spring when folks realize they need to pay income tax on their CERB could be tough, as one example. (No tax was withheld)

 

The market for property sales has slowed considerably, and both pricing and transaction volumes are way down.

 

I'm not sure about the leasing market, I haven't had a vacancy since this started. I suspect it's quite bad.

 

I posted this in response to a question in the Canadian real estate thread about 6 weeks ago. Since that time, I have collected 100% of my May rents on time and in full. The Canadian government is basically floating my tenants, I think.

 

Also since then, over 30% of my tenants have given notice they are moving out due to relationship breakdowns. That is insanely high, even with the same small sample size warning as above. I think it is very likely forced isolation has been pretty hard on relationships everywhere, and my tenants probably have less secure lives/relationships/jobs etc on average which has probably made the whole situation more stressful.

 

Bizaro,

 

I may have missed it, but how many units is your building?  Trying to gauge the extent of the small sample size.

[bizaro86]

I have a considerably smaller sample size, but I got 100% of my rents for April. And one tenant who hasn't paid on time for a year paid on the 1st.

 

For tenants who have lost their jobs, the CERB is $2000/month for 4 months. For a family with 2 adults, that's $4k/month. Someone working full time 40 hours/wk at minimum wage ($15/hr) only has a gross of $2500/month. So between taxes and payroll deductions and missing a shift many/most renters are as good or better off financially than they were. Even tenants in higher end professions seem to be mostly working from home, getting full pay, and saving money on commuting, lunches out, etc.

 

The piper will have to be paid for this eventually, but for now it seems OK. I think next spring when folks realize they need to pay income tax on their CERB could be tough, as one example. (No tax was withheld)

 

The market for property sales has slowed considerably, and both pricing and transaction volumes are way down.

 

I'm not sure about the leasing market, I haven't had a vacancy since this started. I suspect it's quite bad.

 

I posted this in response to a question in the Canadian real estate thread about 6 weeks ago. Since that time, I have collected 100% of my May rents on time and in full. The Canadian government is basically floating my tenants, I think.

 

Also since then, over 30% of my tenants have given notice they are moving out due to relationship breakdowns. That is insanely high, even with the same small sample size warning as above. I think it is very likely forced isolation has been pretty hard on relationships everywhere, and my tenants probably have less secure lives/relationships/jobs etc on average which has probably made the whole situation more stressful.

 

Bizaro,

 

I may have missed it, but how many units is your building?  Trying to gauge the extent of the small sample size.

 

Not a building, its condos in a variety of buildings. My kid who is learning to count couldn't count them on one hand, but he wouldn't need all his toes either.

[TrashIsCash]

Re: New homes sales, the salesperson said:

-Low inventory

-apartment rents keep rising, so home ownership looks more attractive.

-low interest rates. 

[alpha]

 

I have a shared office at 1 Yonge St (prime Toronto real estate). The office manager is now offering 3 months free rent for any new 1 year office leases. This would have been unimaginable 6 months ago...

[KJP]

Public school districts in the US are starting to announce tentative school plans for fall 2020.  Several large suburban districts are requiring parents to choose between part in-class, part online (2 or 3 days a week live) or all online (e.g., Fairfax in Virginia), while others are requiring parents to choose between 5-days a week live and full online (many districts in the Philly suburbs).  Typically, parents must submit their choice by a July deadline and stick with it for at least a semester, though all in-school instruction is subject to actual conditions in the fall. 

 

I understand that the 2 or 3 day/week in-school schedule is intended to lower class sizes (only 50% of students attend each day) to aid with social distancing.  But if children ultimately attend some type of group childcare on the days they're not in school, presumably with at least some children who are not in their class, the split schedule may be counterproductive. 

 

I understand that many parents were quite frustrated with the makeshift online instruction offered in March - June this year because it was both half-baked and required significant parental oversight, essentially requiring parents to simultaneously teach, keep the house in order, and work at their regular jobs.  I don't think that's sustainable and quality in all three of those areas will inevitably suffer.

 

The President's most recent immigration proclamation also appears to have effectively ended the ability to hire a new au pair from outside the country, making childcare even more difficult for some families, though I suspect this affects only a very small number.

[SharperDingaan]

Public school districts in the US are starting to announce tentative school plans for fall 2019.  Several large suburban districts are requiring parents to choose between part in-class, part online (2 or 3 days a week live) or all online (e.g., Fairfax in Virginia), while others are requiring parents to choose between 5-days a week live subject and full online (many district in the Philly suburbs).  Typically, parents must submit their choice by a July deadline and stick with it for at least a semester, though all in-school instruction is subject to actual conditions in the fall. 

 

I understand that the 2 or 3 day/week in-school schedule is intended to lower class sizes (only 50% of students attend each day) to aid with social distancing.  But if children ultimately attend some type of group childcare on the days they're not in school, presumably with at least some children who are not in their class, the split schedule may be counterproductive. 

 

I understand that many parents were quite frustrated with the makeshift online instruction offered in March - June this year because it was both half-baked and required significant parental oversight, essentially requiring parents to simultaneously teach, keep the house in order, and work at their regular jobs.  I don't think that's sustainable and quality in all three of those areas will inevitably suffer.

 

The President's most recent immigration proclamation also appears to have effectively ended the ability to hire a new au pair from outside the country, making childcare even more difficult for some families, though I suspect this affects only a very small number.

 

Same thing in Ontario (Canada). Part on-line/in-class being pushed as it also addresses child care (assumes a parent/guardian) is at home on the on-line days.

 

SD

[Castanza]

Not sure where to put this but...

 

For those of you who are landlords, how have you been handling showings during the pandemic? I had a friend who is moving out of an apartment and is pissed because their landlord is showing the place as normal. They work third shift in the healthcare field and people coming in during the middle of the day doesn’t work well. They also are pretty nervous about covid and don’t like a dozen different people coming in their home every week.  They also are supposed to be extra careful because of their occupation.

 

I haven’t seen any laws or restrictions on this. And quite honestly, haven’t thought about it since I don’t rent. Seems like a pita to deal with.

[bizaro86]

Not sure where to put this but...

 

For those of you who are landlords, how have you been handling showings during the pandemic? I had a friend who is moving out of an apartment and is pissed because their landlord is showing the place as normal. They work third shift in the healthcare field and people coming in during the middle of the day doesn’t work well. They also are pretty nervous about covid and don’t like a dozen different people coming in their home every week.  They also are supposed to be extra careful because of their occupation.

 

I haven’t seen any laws or restrictions on this. And quite honestly, haven’t thought about it since I don’t rent. Seems like a pita to deal with.

 

I offered in person or virtual showings for a November 1 vacancy. Uptake on virtual showings was very low - only one person wanted that and it was because they were relocating from a distant city. They ended up taking it, so that can work, but most people want to see the place they're going to live with their own eyes before committing.

[Gregmal]

I haven't had the issue yet as I've been lucky to locate and retain longer term tenants. But if I had the issue, I'd politely let the occupant know that they signed a lease that allows me(or my agents) right of entry to show it provided I give reasonable notice and if they dont like that, one of the benefits of all my units is that they have basements...go there for 15 minutes.  Everything will be fine.

[Castanza]

I haven't had the issue yet as I've been lucky to locate and retain longer term tenants. But if I had the issue, I'd politely let the occupant know that they signed a lease that allows me(or my agents) right of entry to show it provided I give reasonable notice and if they dont like that, one of the benefits of all my units is that they have basements...go there for 15 minutes.  Everything will be fine.

 

That’s what I figured would be the case.  I pretty much told my friend to just leave and then clean when they get back if they’re worried about catching covid. It’s got to be give and take. Landlords have it pretty rough right now too. I can see a lot of renters putting up a fight over this though. And in some cases, say an immune compromised person I can see some reason for caution.

[bookie71]

Gee I wonder why someone in the healthcare field would be concerned that you are bringing in people to their apt.  What are they touching? Are you wiping down the surfaces? Are you disinfecting?  How are you keeping the virus out of the air? Hope your insurance is paid up when they get infected

[Castanza]

Gee I wonder why someone in the healthcare field would be concerned that you are bringing in people to their apt.  What are they touching? Are you wiping down the surfaces? Are you disinfecting?  How are you keeping the virus out of the air? Hope your insurance is paid up when they get infected

 

I'm not the landlord...

[alpha]

 

The amount of retail investors gambling on stock options and equities. It seems like a large chunk of sports gamblers have switched to betting on the markets during the pandemic. Driven by no-fee apps and pandemic relief programs. The YOY numbers quoted in the following CNBC article are significant:

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/04/pandemic-induced-options-trading-craze-shows-no-signs-of-slowing-down.html

[montizzle]

 

The amount of retail investors gambling on stock options and equities. It seems like a large chunk of sports gamblers have switched to betting on the markets during the pandemic. Driven by no-fee apps and pandemic relief programs. The YOY numbers quoted in the following CNBC article are significant:

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/04/pandemic-induced-options-trading-craze-shows-no-signs-of-slowing-down.html

 

Assuming that this trend continues on, what's the best play on this, the exchanges? NDAQ, ICE, X.To etc?

[jobyts]

Got a message from www.airstream.com mailing list I'm subscribed to. It said, "Due to high demand, wait times for new products are longer than normal. Please contact your local Airstream dealer to learn about product availability and placing an order."

[Jurgis]

I have a feeling at some point there's gonna be a deluge of unwanted second-hand RVs and the companies will crash. The timing might be tough though. (And I don't short).

[SharperDingaan]

I have a feeling at some point there's gonna be a deluge of unwanted second-hand RVs and the companies will crash. The timing might be tough though. (And I don't short).

 

Finally! Post 2015 second hand VW campers, with room on the top for bikes and/or kayaks - going cheap!!

Canadian thing  :)

 

SD

 

 

[Spekulatius]

Got a message from www.airstream.com mailing list I'm subscribed to. It said, "Due to high demand, wait times for new products are longer than normal. Please contact your local Airstream dealer to learn about product availability and placing an order."

 

An acquaintance of us bought an Airstream this summer. I have seen his wive walkthroughs of the interior and a lot of pictures but none where on the road. I wonder if they used it at all.

 

I do think 2 years from now there will be a buyers market for used ones.

[chrispy]

I have always been planning on buying a boat and predicted at the age I will be in 3 years is when the purchase is feasible and reasonable (exciting and depressing).

 

This could coincide perfectly with the first or second Fall after covid restrictions are lifted and recent buyers realize they never use it and do not want to winterize it again

[Castanza]

Got a message from www.airstream.com mailing list I'm subscribed to. It said, "Due to high demand, wait times for new products are longer than normal. Please contact your local Airstream dealer to learn about product availability and placing an order."

 

An acquaintance of us bought an Airstream this summer. I have seen his wive walkthroughs of the interior and a lot of pictures but none where on the road. I wonder if they used it at all.

 

I do think 2 years from now there will be a buyers market for used ones.

 

My parents own a Bambi model. They drove all over the country this past year. Honestly, they are pretty sweet little campers.

[jobyts]

 

An acquaintance of us bought an Airstream this summer. I have seen his wive walkthroughs of the interior and a lot of pictures but none where on the road. I wonder if they used it at all.

 

 

Interesting observation. I do dream about buying an RV and doing family road trips. But all the dreams are about driving/living in the RV (even though I'm not passionate about driving), nothing about the places I would like to visit.

 

I see a similar thing with high end audio systems as well. Audiophiles enjoy their music system much more than the music.