BG2008 Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 The goal here is to share real world anecdotes as I have picked up a few in this thread that would paint us a good picture of the overall economy 1) NYC renters are asking for a lot of rent deferrals. I have relatives where 1/2 of their tenants have asked for rent deferrals. 2) On Instagram, famous chefs like Thomas Keller, David Chang, Jean George, etc have banded together and been very vocal about the stay in place orders and what that is doing to the restaurant business. I am very afraid that we come out of this with no mom and pop restaurants. Although, I would not own a restaurant, I do appreciate what they do and where my family and I can go and find a good meal. 3) Most banks are offering deferrals. I have heard that First Republic has offered up to 6 months deferral if you submit a statement saying how Covid 19 has affected your income. TD Bank is terrible. Chase is fairly easy to do via an online interface. Would love to hear more. 4) Hotels and retail real estate are actually losing money. All the RE investors that I talk to have mentioned that they tend to underwrite to a 20% drop in NOI for retail and maybe 50% for hotels during a recession. But they don't underwrite to a negative NOI. This is different. How long it last is very distressing. 5) I personally believe that the Fed and the government will allow for a temporary 3-6 months deferral on rent and mortgage payments across the board in the US. If they don't , the consequences are dire. Politically, it is very difficult for 80% of the homes to be foreclosed on. It is probably the same for 80% of retail and hotels to be foreclosed on. It is not any of the owners' fault that they were put in this situation. 6) Grocery and warehouses are the only two areas where they are still hiring people. My wife is a champ and has been on top of this. She bought us face mask, sanitizers, formula, etc a couple months ago and people thought we were nuts. I have done 2-3 runs to restaurant depot and Costco early on to stock up on 10 pounds of shrimps and 30 pounds of oxtail etc. You gotta eat well even during times of quarantine. My wife told me that it is about the only thing keeping everyone from tearing into each other at this moment, nice dinners on Saturday and Sunday night. We have decided to not go grocery shopping and have people bring it to us. Placing orders through Instacart is really stressful. There aren't any windows open. Within the Chinese WeChat, there are now people specializing in running errands for you for $40-$100. Frankly, we will gladly pay that. 7) A few of my high school friends have mentioned that staying home means they have been munching on food and gaining weight 8) This one is obvious, we all started using Zoom If you have stories from industries that you work in, please share. I would love to hear them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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