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montizzle

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  1. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-12/circle-k-owner-couche-tard-said-to-explore-purchase-of-carrefour?srnd=premium-canada Or maybe the future is to transition into full on grocery. Kind of makes sense. Couche-Tards invests heavily on data science regarding customer patterns, logistics, cashierless checkouts. Seems well suited for a grocer.
  2. Yeah I've been looking into this one. One of the concerns I have with it and am trying to learn more about is how much WFH will affect it. Their earnings calls touched briefly on volumes being down on products typically bought on the morning commute. How much of that volume will come back? Will consumers be more likely to stop in if they switch to a blended work schedule (perhaps that gas station snack is a novelty when you pass it once a week?). It's definitely a time will tell scenario, I don't think anyone can say much about WFH with certainty yet
  3. The future of convenience stores is an interesting topic that intersects a few major cultural shifts in the post covid world. I've been thinking about this topic a lot for the past couple months, so I'll try to break it down by topic here. Would love to hear everyone else's opinions, as every family member I've tried to corner into this discussion has managed to escape. Electric vehicles Throwing away the valuation arguments, I don't think anyone disagrees that our future is going to be one where electric cars are the majority. Those cars are going to need power stations outside of one's home. The obvious solution currently seems like installing quick charge stations at gas stations. To my knowledge however, the technology to fully charge as quickly as a full tank of gas is far away. Do the convenience stores attached to gas stations therefore need to adapt by luring in customers for a longer experience? How would this be done, service based (charge and a haircut? shoeshine?) or do they develop more enjoyable lounge type atmospheres where customers can enjoy a cup of coffee? Will customers ever want to spend time at gas stations? If they really don't want to (I don't think they will), will they technology develop instead for replaceable batteries? Commercial real estate Some are predicting covid to be the catalyst that finally kills off Malls and shopping centres in favour of online shopping. If that's the case, will those malls (at least partially) convert to distribution centres? It seems plausible, Malls are generally located near population centres and close to major transportation routes . Convenience stores are similarly strategically located, on a more localized scale. Could they become a sort of secondary distribution centre, bringing orders to the final last mile step of their journey? Partnerships with shipping companies and large convenience store chains seem likely to me DoorDash/SkiptheDishes/Ubereats influence All of these delivery companies have seen an explosion in use thanks to the pandemic. Some convenience store chains include their products on this service, allowing customers to order say a bag of chips delivery from their phone for a small premium. It's unclear how many customers are paying the premium for convenience vs. for preventing sickness. It'll be interesting to see how sticky this customer base is post-covid. Cash free society Before the pandemic cash was becoming an increasingly uncommon payment method. Now that covid has required essentially all businesses to create cash free payment methods, cash seems to be nearly obsolete. Many independent convenience stores would benefit greatly from cash payments for tax reasons. Will this lead to increased pressure on independents, and accelerate consolidation by big chains? I'll admit, this last one's a bit of a stretch, however I do think that the industry is going to consolidate greatly. Big chains by virtue of their size can make the major changes in operations and outside partnerships easier than small mom and pops. In summary, I think major changes are on the horizon for convenience stores, and I'm surprised this isn't talked about more. Personally, I don't see how the mom and pops will be able to compete. Convenience stores don't sell the quality products that help insulate mom and pop restaurants from large chains. It may be just a matter of time before independent convenience stores go the way of independent grocers
  4. Assuming that this trend continues on, what's the best play on this, the exchanges? NDAQ, ICE, X.To etc?
  5. Good list to watch for year end tax loss harvesting
  6. Are we really doing crypto coin talk here?
  7. Whether I agree with the ideas or not, Oaktree memos are always a good read.
  8. Not sure I can compare thousands of deaths to a guy not affording his benz as the same scale of tragedy
  9. This is the question keeping me up at night these days. Every homeowner I know is deferring their mortgage at the moment. I'm not sure if it's the only option available, but they're all opting for a lump sum payment of the deferral at the end of their term. Theres no real plans in place though to be able to actually save up this lump sum. It seems everyone plans to just go back to living paycheque to paycheque and hope the money saves itself? Given how great us Canadians as a whole have been at saving and staying out of debt (lol), I don't see a situation where a big portion of these mortgages don't default. On the flip side, every non-homeowner I know is salivating at the thought of being able to actually afford a house. These are people in their late twentys with decent jobs. Owning a house in the GTA is the holy grail for them, and now they think it may be a real possibility. No clue how this will turn out.
  10. If I follow this right, would it be fair to say Canada is in a similar position as russia, where CAD tanks with the price of oil lowering the cost base of oil sands players?
  11. Every single person I've talked to is thinking limit down. So I guess it'll limit up
  12. I work for a global building materials company in Canada. What I've seen at work is spot on with what you've said. We began getting emails as early as mid january about the coronavirus and how it may effect operations, long before anyone in this part of the world was taking it seriously. My workplace has been surprisingly more co-ordinated and prepared for all of this than from what I've heard from friends in non-international companies. I think a lot of it is corporate learning from experiences in China a few months ago. Interested to see what material impact (workplace infection rates, maintaining level of productivity, etc.) this preparedness will translate to.
  13. This didn't age too well (I fully agreed at the time so not trying to criticize here). VIX now over 80
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