Liberty Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 Bill Ackman posted this Sky News video on what the situation looks like in hospitals in Italy: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 This system is so corrupt: https://www.thedailybeast.com/sen-kelly-loeffler-dumped-millions-in-stock-after-coronavirus-briefing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cubsfan Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 This system is so corrupt: https://www.thedailybeast.com/sen-kelly-loeffler-dumped-millions-in-stock-after-coronavirus-briefing Oh, yea - not illegal, but morally corrupt, they all need to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EliG Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 This system is so corrupt: https://www.thedailybeast.com/sen-kelly-loeffler-dumped-millions-in-stock-after-coronavirus-briefing Oh, yea - not illegal, but morally corrupt, they all need to go. At least four senators dumped their stocks after receiving a briefing on Jan 24. Trump had the exact same information -- and did mostly nothing to prepare. The buck stops at the top, doesn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 This system is so corrupt: https://www.thedailybeast.com/sen-kelly-loeffler-dumped-millions-in-stock-after-coronavirus-briefing Oh, yea - not illegal, but morally corrupt, they all need to go. At least four senators dumped their stocks after receiving a briefing on Jan 24. Trump had the exact same information -- and did mostly nothing to prepare. The buck stops at the top, doesn't it? Is Trump required to disclose equity transactions? And Senators are only required to disclose for themselves & their spouse. Who knows what their kids are doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 No comment: https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/20/media/trump-rant-at-nbc-news-peter-alexander/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minten Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 This system is so corrupt Didn't we all already know about what was happening in Wuhan around that time? I know I did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 This system is so corrupt Didn't we all already know about what was happening in Wuhan around that time? I know I did. We didn't have a private meeting with experts, no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 Im surprised your allowed in the ICU's in NY. I assume you have been to the ones in Kings county and LA too huh? ::) So its the graph that does it huh? Fuck the 1800 a day dying from heart disease? 179 so far from Corona virus. Avg 3.4 per state. You are not concerned about the other because you went your entire life not being aware 24 hours a day of cardiovascular disease. Your numb to it. This is new and exciting. Death does not concern you. You seem to relish in the fear, we all have our thing. You should make a graph from the start of the year to now, 1800 a day of cardiac deaths and map those out vs corona. That would be fun to watch. Oh, its how these people die, not that they die. Ok. I just think you get off on the fear, cool whatever. Its still coming huh? When will you be wrong? My early assumption already is if/when the deaths fail to take of exponentially you will pivot to the flattening the curve is working. Deaths from COVID are already exponential in USA. A graph of heart disease deaths would be a straight line with no change in slope day to day (i.e. a linear plot, not an exponential). I am concerned about it more than cancer or heart disease. “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so”. -MT More: USA COVID deaths from March 16-17: 23 USA COVID deaths from March 17-18: 41 USA COVID deaths from March 18-19: 57 So, a 39% increase in # of daily deaths over past 2 days. Do heart disease, cancer, and auto accidents ever show similar trends? Are heart disease or cancer or auto accident deaths known to rise 39% or more from day after day like this? Do people have 39% more heart attacks nationwide on a Wednesday than they did on a Tuesday? For those who believe so, please for your own sake never ever decide to invest in the insurance industry. For the umpteenth time, is a big difference between systemic, multiplicative processes and those that are not. Oh, and there goes the thesis about this having infected millions months ago in the U.S... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clutch Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 Im surprised your allowed in the ICU's in NY. I assume you have been to the ones in Kings county and LA too huh? ::) So its the graph that does it huh? Fuck the 1800 a day dying from heart disease? 179 so far from Corona virus. Avg 3.4 per state. You are not concerned about the other because you went your entire life not being aware 24 hours a day of cardiovascular disease. Your numb to it. This is new and exciting. Death does not concern you. You seem to relish in the fear, we all have our thing. You should make a graph from the start of the year to now, 1800 a day of cardiac deaths and map those out vs corona. That would be fun to watch. Oh, its how these people die, not that they die. Ok. I just think you get off on the fear, cool whatever. Its still coming huh? When will you be wrong? My early assumption already is if/when the deaths fail to take of exponentially you will pivot to the flattening the curve is working. Deaths from COVID are already exponential in USA. A graph of heart disease deaths would be a straight line with no change in slope day to day (i.e. a linear plot, not an exponential). I am concerned about it more than cancer or heart disease. “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so”. -MT More: USA COVID deaths from March 16-17: 23 USA COVID deaths from March 17-18: 41 USA COVID deaths from March 18-19: 57 So, a 39% increase in # of daily deaths over past 2 days. Do heart disease, cancer, and auto accidents ever show similar trends? Are heart disease or cancer or auto accident deaths known to rise 39% or more from day after day like this? Do people have 39% more heart attacks nationwide on a Wednesday than they did on a Tuesday? Over three days, for sure. You could find many death causes that showed exponential growth in a 3-day period (of course, by chance). Not arguing the potential exponential growth in the death numbers due to COVID-19, but I find it funny how you show these three numbers as concrete evidence that there is an exponential trend. ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 Im surprised your allowed in the ICU's in NY. I assume you have been to the ones in Kings county and LA too huh? ::) So its the graph that does it huh? Fuck the 1800 a day dying from heart disease? 179 so far from Corona virus. Avg 3.4 per state. You are not concerned about the other because you went your entire life not being aware 24 hours a day of cardiovascular disease. Your numb to it. This is new and exciting. Death does not concern you. You seem to relish in the fear, we all have our thing. You should make a graph from the start of the year to now, 1800 a day of cardiac deaths and map those out vs corona. That would be fun to watch. Oh, its how these people die, not that they die. Ok. I just think you get off on the fear, cool whatever. Its still coming huh? When will you be wrong? My early assumption already is if/when the deaths fail to take of exponentially you will pivot to the flattening the curve is working. Deaths from COVID are already exponential in USA. A graph of heart disease deaths would be a straight line with no change in slope day to day (i.e. a linear plot, not an exponential). I am concerned about it more than cancer or heart disease. “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so”. -MT More: USA COVID deaths from March 16-17: 23 USA COVID deaths from March 17-18: 41 USA COVID deaths from March 18-19: 57 So, a 39% increase in # of daily deaths over past 2 days. Do heart disease, cancer, and auto accidents ever show similar trends? Are heart disease or cancer or auto accident deaths known to rise 39% or more from day after day like this? Do people have 39% more heart attacks nationwide on a Wednesday than they did on a Tuesday? Over three days, for sure. You could find many death causes that showed exponential growth in a 3-day period (of course, by chance). Not arguing the potential exponential growth in the death numbers due to COVID-19, but I find it funny how you show these three numbers as concrete evidence that there is an exponential trend. ??? I posted a plot over weeks but it was too complex for some to understand so I whittled it down to 3 numbers. Attached it here for u. The trend continues for much longer than 3d. For those who have some quantitative training, the trend looks awfully like an exponential one. Remember, the derivative of an exponential is...still an exponential. What would the plot for cumulative auto accidents or cardiovascular deaths look like? What is the derivative of such a curve? If you think auto accidents can rise 39% in a day, go talk to an actuary at GEICO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clutch Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 Im surprised your allowed in the ICU's in NY. I assume you have been to the ones in Kings county and LA too huh? ::) So its the graph that does it huh? Fuck the 1800 a day dying from heart disease? 179 so far from Corona virus. Avg 3.4 per state. You are not concerned about the other because you went your entire life not being aware 24 hours a day of cardiovascular disease. Your numb to it. This is new and exciting. Death does not concern you. You seem to relish in the fear, we all have our thing. You should make a graph from the start of the year to now, 1800 a day of cardiac deaths and map those out vs corona. That would be fun to watch. Oh, its how these people die, not that they die. Ok. I just think you get off on the fear, cool whatever. Its still coming huh? When will you be wrong? My early assumption already is if/when the deaths fail to take of exponentially you will pivot to the flattening the curve is working. Deaths from COVID are already exponential in USA. A graph of heart disease deaths would be a straight line with no change in slope day to day (i.e. a linear plot, not an exponential). I am concerned about it more than cancer or heart disease. “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so”. -MT More: USA COVID deaths from March 16-17: 23 USA COVID deaths from March 17-18: 41 USA COVID deaths from March 18-19: 57 So, a 39% increase in # of daily deaths over past 2 days. Do heart disease, cancer, and auto accidents ever show similar trends? Are heart disease or cancer or auto accident deaths known to rise 39% or more from day after day like this? Do people have 39% more heart attacks nationwide on a Wednesday than they did on a Tuesday? Over three days, for sure. You could find many death causes that showed exponential growth in a 3-day period (of course, by chance). Not arguing the potential exponential growth in the death numbers due to COVID-19, but I find it funny how you show these three numbers as concrete evidence that there is an exponential trend. ??? I posted a plot over weeks but it was too complex for some to understand so I whittled it down to 3 numbers. Attached it here for u. The trend continues for much longer than 3d. For those who have some quantitative training, the trend looks awfully like an exponential one. Remember, the derivative of an exponent is...still and exponent. What would the plot for cumulative auto accidents or cardiovascular deaths look like? What is the derivative of such a curve? If you think auto accidents can rise 39% in a day, go talk to an actuary at GEICO. Ok, didn't know you posted this before. But if you look up auto accidents between Sunday and Monday, I bet there would be a rise of 39% or more. Just emphasizing the point that one shouldn't draw conclusions based on a few data points (which I assumed you did). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 I posted a plot over weeks but it was too complex for some to understand so I whittled it down to 3 numbers. Attached it here for u. The trend continues for much longer than 3d. For those who have some quantitative training, the trend looks awfully like an exponential one. Remember, the derivative of an exponential is...still an exponential. What would the plot for cumulative auto accidents or cardiovascular deaths look like? What is the derivative of such a curve? If you think auto accidents can rise 39% in a day, go talk to an actuary at GEICO. The only plausible refutation is a data sampling or reporting issue. Which, is still possible. But this possibility grows less likely every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 I posted a plot over weeks but it was too complex for some to understand so I whittled it down to 3 numbers. Attached it here for u. The trend continues for much longer than 3d. For those who have some quantitative training, the trend looks awfully like an exponential one. Remember, the derivative of an exponential is...still an exponential. What would the plot for cumulative auto accidents or cardiovascular deaths look like? What is the derivative of such a curve? If you think auto accidents can rise 39% in a day, go talk to an actuary at GEICO. The only plausible refutation is a data sampling or reporting issue. Which, is still possible. But this possibility grows less likely every day. Yes and you have to somehow have to believe that months ago people were dying/being admitted to ICUs without having a known diagnosis, just ARDS without known cause and Flu negative... Seems like a bit of a stretch, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cigarbutt Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 Hospitals are canceling elective surgeries to make room for the onslaught. That's going to hurt them big time because those are their big cash cows. And in their place, they will see a rise of uninsured and the insured people they see won't be as lucrative as the surgeries lost. I believe, anyway. That’s not the health insurers problem though. Health insurance is a good business and short tail too. Rates gets negotiated every year and costs just passed through. There is some risk of a catastrophic surge in claims I guess, but I think if such a thing happens, they get bailed out too. Hospitals' profitability in the US is that privately insureds come with fat margins, medicare and equivalents come with thin or negative margins and uninsureds or unpaid bills cause losses (think DaVita model). What is coming will dent the bottom line to a significant degree and a bailout is already in the cards: https://www.aha.org/system/files/media/file/2020/03/aha-ama-ana-urge-congress-provide-funding-hospitals-health-systems-nurses-physicians-response-to-covid-19-3-18-2020.pdf The question to come will be: who does not need (or want) a bailout? Health insurers already had a bailout (although it was not labeled as such) with the Obamacare transition and they may ask for more but the risk (risk depending on your political perspective) is that public participation in the restructuring may result in a debt to equity swap. It may be part of a New Deal 2.0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted March 20, 2020 Share Posted March 20, 2020 https://medium.com/@Jason_Scott_Warner/the-sober-math-everyone-must-understand-about-the-pandemic-2b0145881993 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted March 21, 2020 Share Posted March 21, 2020 https://medium.com/@Jason_Scott_Warner/the-sober-math-everyone-must-understand-about-the-pandemic-2b0145881993 If he is right that 50 people have it for every 1 we know about, then 22 people have died out of 180,000 infected in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted March 21, 2020 Share Posted March 21, 2020 https://medium.com/@Jason_Scott_Warner/the-sober-math-everyone-must-understand-about-the-pandemic-2b0145881993 If he is right that 50 people have it for every 1 we know about, then 22 people have died out of 180,000 infected in NYC. You have to take into account time it takes for the virus to run its course, though. Daily exponential growth means the vast majority of infections are early stage and haven’t had time to create complications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted March 21, 2020 Share Posted March 21, 2020 https://medium.com/@Jason_Scott_Warner/the-sober-math-everyone-must-understand-about-the-pandemic-2b0145881993 If he is right that 50 people have it for every 1 we know about, then 22 people have died out of 180,000 infected in NYC. You have to take into account time it takes for the virus to run its course, though. Daily exponential growth means the vast majority of infections are early stage and haven’t had time to create complications. Do we also upwardly adjust the 180,000 number to add back the number of people who were once infected but no longer are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted March 21, 2020 Share Posted March 21, 2020 Interview with epidemiologist Larry Brilliant, who helped defeat smallpox; https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus-interview-larry-brilliant-smallpox-epidemiologist/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viking Posted March 21, 2020 Share Posted March 21, 2020 Interview with epidemiologist Larry Brilliant, who helped defeat smallpox; https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus-interview-larry-brilliant-smallpox-epidemiologist/ Liberty, thanks very much for posting the links to many informative articles. Please keep them coming :-) How will we know when we’re through this? The world is not going to begin to look normal until three things have happened. One, we figure out whether the distribution of this virus looks like an iceberg, which is one-seventh above the water, or a pyramid, where we see everything. If we're only seeing right now one-seventh of the actual disease because we're not testing enough, and we're just blind to it, then we're in a world of hurt. Two, we have a treatment that works, a vaccine or antiviral. And three, maybe most important, we begin to see large numbers of people—in particular nurses, home health care providers, doctors, policemen, firemen, and teachers who have had the disease—are immune, and we have tested them to know that they are not infectious any longer. And we have a system that identifies them, either a concert wristband or a card with their photograph and some kind of a stamp on it. Then we can be comfortable sending our children back to school, because we know the teacher is not infectious. And instead of saying "No, you can't visit anybody in nursing home," we have a group of people who are certified that they work with elderly and vulnerable people, and nurses who can go back into the hospitals and dentists who can open your mouth and look in your mouth and not be giving you the virus. When those three things happen, that's when normalcy will return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gary17 Posted March 21, 2020 Share Posted March 21, 2020 why was S Korea and Taiwan and Singapore able to manage their outbreaks without social distancing and lockdowns? these countries simply asked everyone to wear a mask - that way, whether you are sick or not - you are protected. if you are sick - the droplets wont' leave and reduces the chance of infection. combined with frequent hand wash, etc and very tight border measures, contact tracing... that's how they managed. Why can't Canada / USA make masks? is it so hard? or is it because our legal system is such that these products have to have bilingual labelling, meet CSA or ASTM or ISO standards etc that they are too expensive to make or purchase... the cost of spending $ 100M or whatever buying masks and ventilators etc 1 months ago is sure a lot cheaper than the $ 100B Canada is now spending and $1T the USA is spending.... not to mention the crippled economy and people being laid off etc. China and Russia must be laughing, the whole NATO is sick... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted March 21, 2020 Share Posted March 21, 2020 Some counterpoints: -S Korea and Singapore are both enforcing social distancing -Russia has been accused of hiding COVID cases (refusing testing, classifying deaths as pneumonia) -China manufactures the majority of face masks globally and production had slowed due to their own viral outbreak -Additionally there is a shortage of blown fabric used to create 1um masks -And finally the US doesn't exist in a vacuum - there is heavy demand from countries such as the ones you mention and others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gary17 Posted March 21, 2020 Share Posted March 21, 2020 Singapore and Taiwan are making masks themselves USA and Canada used to be manufacturing powerhouses - we sent that overseas and now we can't even make stuff from our own blue print? Social distancing is fine but no lock down. lock down is what kills the economy. if we are G7 and true economic powerhouse in the world.. super power whatever... now is the time to show that... else it's just all BS lol I hope everybody learns shipping manufacturing overseas means others are holding all the cards... i don't know what Trudeau was trying to prove by not shutting the border and /or enforce the 14 day mandatory self-isolation... they keep saying "we trust canadians to do the right thing". clearly that didn't happen... and now 3 weeks later we are shutting not just the border, but also turning asylum seekers away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted March 21, 2020 Share Posted March 21, 2020 This is a really interesting data point. I am not saying all of these users are dead. There are just two mobile providers in China. I don't think all of a sudden these 8M users decided to switch to the other one right in Jan and Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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