Coronavirus

[Jurgis]

The real problem is the group of invertebrates looking for 1-ft hurdles to jump over.

 

Yeah, Covid 19 jumped the 1-ft hurdle and infected 90K+ people.

 

 

 

Oh, wait. That's not the invertebrates you meant.  ::)

[Gregmal]

@Castanza LOL yea. If absolutely nothing else, I found it an interesting mental exercise to consider the ramifications of the only thing we can definitely say about Berkshire/Buffett the past week or two. They were buying Delta...now extrapolate

[Jurgis]

For the people who believe this virus is not a big deal, imagine if you or a loved one was on this cruise ship? We know that a cruise ship is the perfect breeding ground for the virus. The death rate for those who were infected on the cruise ship in Japan was 10% (i think). I am sure the 2,500 people on this cruise ship are going through hell right now. Coronovirus is a global health emergency; the sooner people figure it out the better it will be managed.

 

U.S. official warns there isn’t capacity to quarantine all passengers from marooned cruise ship

 

Ken Cuccinelli, the acting deputy secretary of homeland security, said Thursday that there is inadequate capacity at health-care facilities in the United States to accommodate bringing large numbers of cruise ship passengers ashore for quarantine, leading lawmakers to question whether authorities would again seek to quarantine coronavirus cases on a ship held offshore.

 

The Grand Princess, which carries about 2,500 passengers, is marooned off California after a previous passenger died of coronavirus and workers aboard displayed symptoms.

 

- https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/03/05/coronavirus-live-updates/

 

[Viking]

For the people who believe this virus is not a big deal, imagine if you or a loved one was on this cruise ship? We know that a cruise ship is the perfect breeding ground for the virus. The death rate for those who were infected on the cruise ship in Japan was 10% (i think). I am sure the 2,500 people on this cruise ship are going through hell right now. Coronovirus is a global health emergency; the sooner people figure it out the better it will be managed.

 

U.S. official warns there isn’t capacity to quarantine all passengers from marooned cruise ship

 

Ken Cuccinelli, the acting deputy secretary of homeland security, said Thursday that there is inadequate capacity at health-care facilities in the United States to accommodate bringing large numbers of cruise ship passengers ashore for quarantine, leading lawmakers to question whether authorities would again seek to quarantine coronavirus cases on a ship held offshore.

 

The Grand Princess, which carries about 2,500 passengers, is marooned off California after a previous passenger died of coronavirus and workers aboard displayed symptoms.

 

- https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/03/05/coronavirus-live-updates/

 

Viking,

 

Please read my "rat lab" analysis of that particular situation about that cruise ship in Japan here. The realized "confirmed cases" [infection]  rate ended up at ~ 19 percent, the death rate ended up at ~ 0.16 percent.

 

I think that today, everyone then on board has left the ship.

 

John, thanks for the clarity. I will be more careful/clear when quoting numbers :-) I was talking about infected people (696) so the death rate right now is a little under 1%, with 35 serious and 478 still active. Bottom line, a cruise ship is the last place you want to be when a virus breaks out.

[rb]

U.S. official warns there isn’t capacity to quarantine all passengers from marooned cruise ship

 

Ken Cuccinelli, the acting deputy secretary of homeland security, said Thursday that there is inadequate capacity at health-care facilities in the United States to accommodate bringing large numbers of cruise ship passengers ashore for quarantine, leading lawmakers to question whether authorities would again seek to quarantine coronavirus cases on a ship held offshore.

 

Yeah, but even Republicans think that that guy is a moron. So I wouldn't put that much weight on what he says.

[compoundinglife]

The question now is at what point does Washington State start to quarantine the hardest hit areas? This seems to be the play book in other regions in the world that lost control of the virus. The economic cost right now is too large for any public official to make the call. As everyone starts to understand the gravity of the situation (i.e. the confirmed cases skyrocket higher) they eventually will have no choice. At some point the fear of the health carnage will become greater than the current fear of the economic carnage.

 

My guess is the quarantine will likely happen in stages. Right now they are telling anyone who can work from home to do so. High risk people should stay at home. Soon all schools will be closed. And then finally we will get to a full on quarantine for a couple of weeks.

 

Again, i am basing the comments above on how other parts of the world where a cluster broke out handled the crisis. China, Northern Italy, South Korea and Iran. We will soon be adding Kirkland Washington to this list.

 

And there is a chance that the US has discovered a new way to manage this crisis in Washington State where a quarantine is not required. One possibility is for the US to decide to let the virus spread from Washington State into all states to speed up the process of infecting their populations and getting through this crisis quickly. Yes, the death toll will be much higher with this approach but it is only a flu after all; mother nature at work :-) And as the President said last night the death rate is not 3.4% but closer to 1% (his hunch). Americans now feel much better. I would expect flights to China, Northern Italy, Korea and Iran to start up again any day.

 

Yeah I think is a long con in terms of the quarantine. WA, Seattle and King County officials know where this is going but they are trying to ease into it to reduce disruption. If people fight on Black Friday for 60" TVs at Walmart, imagine what happens over the last box of TP at Costco if everyone is freaked the eff out because they have been told they should not be out. It could be total chaos. At least right now the TP buyers are just the bandwagon preppers. Officials are concerned about mass hysteria IMO.

 

For context, I am about 16 miles from the long term care center in Kirkland where the first deaths originated. Lots of people are confused and frustrated because they are getting conflicting information. For example teachers are frustrated because people are being told to work from home  and avoid mass gatherings but they need to keep going to school which is arguably the worst place in terms of spreading (although you could argue having all those kids running around is worse). A local Toyota dealership had an employee suspected (later confirmed) and tried to hide it, not telling anyone. There are reports on social media of many people falling ill but the confirmed numbers seem really low. Downtown Seattle is a ghost town, the small business owners I know are freaked out they are going to lose their shirts which looks very possible right now.

 

Good times  :D

 

 

 

 

 

 

[LC]

Castanza, I could care less about empathy or how someone feels about a potentially lethal virus. Bedside manner isn't an issue here.

 

What is concerning is the apathy and excuse-making for a federal government which cannot distribute and administer test kits, cannot disseminate accurate information, and cannot  properly quarantine high-risk individuals despite having a month long head start vs. other global areas.

 

And instead of holding that government accountable, we hear things like "who cares? the old people are going to die anyways".

 

And when you hear stories like this:

 

A local Toyota dealership had an employee suspected (later confirmed) and tried to hide it, not telling anyone. There are reports on social media of many people falling ill but the confirmed numbers seem really low. Downtown Seattle is a ghost town, the small business owners I know are freaked out they are going to lose their shirts which looks very possible right now.

 

What I think of is a failure of leadership at the top to deliver a message. Instead there is a lack of leadership and so people are making all kinds of bad decisions.

[Jurgis]

The question now is at what point does Washington State start to quarantine the hardest hit areas? This seems to be the play book in other regions in the world that lost control of the virus. The economic cost right now is too large for any public official to make the call. As everyone starts to understand the gravity of the situation (i.e. the confirmed cases skyrocket higher) they eventually will have no choice. At some point the fear of the health carnage will become greater than the current fear of the economic carnage.

 

My guess is the quarantine will likely happen in stages. Right now they are telling anyone who can work from home to do so. High risk people should stay at home. Soon all schools will be closed. And then finally we will get to a full on quarantine for a couple of weeks.

 

Again, i am basing the comments above on how other parts of the world where a cluster broke out handled the crisis. China, Northern Italy, South Korea and Iran. We will soon be adding Kirkland Washington to this list.

 

And there is a chance that the US has discovered a new way to manage this crisis in Washington State where a quarantine is not required. One possibility is for the US to decide to let the virus spread from Washington State into all states to speed up the process of infecting their populations and getting through this crisis quickly. Yes, the death toll will be much higher with this approach but it is only a flu after all; mother nature at work :-) And as the President said last night the death rate is not 3.4% but closer to 1% (his hunch). Americans now feel much better. I would expect flights to China, Northern Italy, Korea and Iran to start up again any day.

 

Yeah I think is a long con in terms of the quarantine. WA, Seattle and King County officials know where this is going but they are trying to ease into it to reduce disruption. If people fight on Black Friday for 60" TVs at Walmart, imagine what happens over the last box of TP at Costco if everyone is freaked the eff out because they have been told they should not be out. It could be total chaos. At least right now the TP buyers are just the bandwagon preppers. Officials are concerned about mass hysteria IMO.

 

For context, I am about 16 miles from the long term care center in Kirkland where the first deaths originated. Lots of people are confused and frustrated because they are getting conflicting information. For example teachers are frustrated because people are being told to work from home  and avoid mass gatherings but they need to keep going to school which is arguably the worst place in terms of spreading (although you could argue having all those kids running around is worse). A local Toyota dealership had an employee suspected (later confirmed) and tried to hide it, not telling anyone. There are reports on social media of many people falling ill but the confirmed numbers seem really low. Downtown Seattle is a ghost town, the small business owners I know are freaked out they are going to lose their shirts which looks very possible right now.

 

Good times  :D

 

Sorry to hear. Hope things work out fine for you and your family.

[John Hjorth]

John, thanks for the clarity. I will be more careful/clear when quoting numbers :-) I was talking about infected people (696) so the death rate right now is a little under 1%, with 35 serious and 478 still active. Bottom line, a cruise ship is the last place you want to be when a virus breaks out.

 

Viking,

 

Thanks. [ : - ) ] This topic is a high velocity topic right now here on CoBF. [For a good reason.] While you were posting, I was editing my post, adding your definition of death rate for the ship in Japan. Perhaps I even added some false information while editing. [About everyone initially being on the ship as of now being off the ship, cleared.]

[Viking]

A new low from Trump. This is not leadership. So you don’t test (which causes more pain and suffering and more deaths of Americans) and then use the low confirmed cases as proof that you are doing a great job. This is disgusting. But it is totally predictable. His strategy is to go at his biggest failings and flip the script.

 

I am surprised there is any testing going on in the US...

 

Trump credits his own efforts, questions WHO stats

 

President Donald Trump tweeted a pat on the back to his own administration for efforts to combat the coronavirus: "With approximately 100,000 CoronaVirus cases worldwide, and 3,280 deaths, the United States, because of quick action on closing our borders, has, as of now, only 129 cases (40 Americans brought in) and 11 deaths. We are working very hard to keep these numbers as low as possible!"

 

- https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/03/05/coronavirus-live-updates-us-death-toll-schools-amtrak/4953471002/

[DooDiligence]

A new low from Trump. This is not leadership. This is disgusting.

 

Trump credits his own efforts, questions WHO stats

 

President Donald Trump tweeted a pat on the back to his own administration for efforts to combat the coronavirus: "With approximately 100,000 CoronaVirus cases worldwide, and 3,280 deaths, the United States, because of quick action on closing our borders, has, as of now, only 129 cases (40 Americans brought in) and 11 deaths. We are working very hard to keep these numbers as low as possible!"

 

- https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/03/05/coronavirus-live-updates-us-death-toll-schools-amtrak/4953471002/

 

I expected nothing less.

 

Wait till he takes credit for coming up with a vaccine.

 

On second thought, maybe he'd soft pedal that since he might lose votes.

 

www.insider.com/how-donald-trump-became-an-anti-vaccinationist-2019-9

[rb]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/new-york-state-coronavirus-cases-double-senate-passes-8-3-billion-spending-bill-idUSKBN20S1W0

 

The U.S. Senate on Thursday passed an $8.3 billion bill to combat the outbreak 96-1, a day after the House of Representatives overwhelmingly approved it. The bill will now go to President Donald Trump for his signature.

 

Does anyone know who's the asshole who voted against it??

[orthopa]

Castanza, I could care less about empathy or how someone feels about a potentially lethal virus. Bedside manner isn't an issue here.

 

What is concerning is the apathy and excuse-making for a federal government which cannot distribute and administer test kits, cannot disseminate accurate information, and cannot  properly quarantine high-risk individuals despite having a month long head start vs. other global areas.

 

And instead of holding that government accountable, we hear things like "who cares? the old people are going to die anyways".

 

And when you hear stories like this:

 

A local Toyota dealership had an employee suspected (later confirmed) and tried to hide it, not telling anyone. There are reports on social media of many people falling ill but the confirmed numbers seem really low. Downtown Seattle is a ghost town, the small business owners I know are freaked out they are going to lose their shirts which looks very possible right now.

 

What I think of is a failure of leadership at the top to deliver a message. Instead there is a lack of leadership and so people are making all kinds of bad decisions.

 

At the same time a deadly virus called the flu comes back year, after year, after year repeatedly migrating from the northern hemisphere to the southern hemisphere over and over and over again. Historically this virus has killed more then the corona virus ever will.  Every year we get test kits and I order flu tests on 15-20 people a day, the vast majority test negative or are out of the window for tx 48-72hrs (they want one to "make sure" they dont have the flu). My point being we have flu test kits up the ass and it does nothing regarding transmission, who dies, who gets it because of when the people come in etc. Your also foolish to think every person with symptoms gets tested, these people in turn pass it on ever year.  People sit in the waiting room, coughing all over each other. Sometimes people look really bad and we transfer them or admit them. Those people are usually elderly or sick already.  This happens every god damn year from October till April and not one person ever as far I know on this site, in the media or politically has given a flying fuck. But for some reason now that a couple thousand people WORLD WIDE have died we should be sounding the alarm, taking extreme measures and going pyscho. Guys/Gals this shit happens every god damn year. Its just that no one was aware of it!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

IMO the virus is all over the country, thousands and thousands have had it, brushed it off as the common cold or went in and tested negative for the flu. The vast vast majority have gotten over it, are currently sick and attributing it to the common cold (which the corona virus is btw).

 

Instead of the worrying about testing and quarantining we should be trying to figure out the fastest way to get to spring/summer or increase UV radiation to naturally limit the virus replication as nature does every year.

 

Anyone spent the time yet to figure out why the virus seems to be much more prevalent in the northern hemisphere then southern? The answer is in the sentence above.

[fareastwarriors]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/new-york-state-coronavirus-cases-double-senate-passes-8-3-billion-spending-bill-idUSKBN20S1W0

 

The U.S. Senate on Thursday passed an $8.3 billion bill to combat the outbreak 96-1, a day after the House of Representatives overwhelmingly approved it. The bill will now go to President Donald Trump for his signature.

 

Does anyone know who's the asshole who voted against it??

 

Senator Rand Paul

[compoundinglife]

 

Sorry to hear. Hope things work out fine for you and your family.

 

Thanks. We are doing great and not losing any sleep. Just staying informed exercising reasonable caution.

[Viking]

 

Sorry to hear. Hope things work out fine for you and your family.

 

Thanks. We are doing great and not losing any sleep. Just staying informed exercising reasonable caution.

 

+1

[rb]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/new-york-state-coronavirus-cases-double-senate-passes-8-3-billion-spending-bill-idUSKBN20S1W0

 

The U.S. Senate on Thursday passed an $8.3 billion bill to combat the outbreak 96-1, a day after the House of Representatives overwhelmingly approved it. The bill will now go to President Donald Trump for his signature.

 

Does anyone know who's the asshole who voted against it??

 

Senator Rand Paul

WOW! If I had to guess I would have said Ted Cruz... not the doctor.

[rb]

Instead of the worrying about testing and quarantining we should be trying to figure out the fastest way to get to spring/summer or increase UV radiation to naturally limit the virus replication as nature does every year.

 

Anyone spent the time yet to figure out why the virus seems to be much more prevalent in the northern hemisphere then southern? The answer is in the sentence above.

 

I'd think that Iran is doing fairly well in the UV department. But that hasn't helped.

 

I don't necessarily disagree with a lo of what you wrote. But I think it's a little more complicated.

[rb]

 

Sorry to hear. Hope things work out fine for you and your family.

 

Thanks. We are doing great and not losing any sleep. Just staying informed exercising reasonable caution.

+1

Yeah, I'd +1 that too.

 

I don't want to diminish what's going on. This thing is definitely a nasty bug. But the reaction to it is definitely weird.

 

I lived in Toronto during SARS (I actually worked on the subway during the crisis) and I lived in London during H1N1 (England was one of the harder hit places). But I don't remember anything like what is going on right now. There was a general level of concern (I started to cough in my elbow) but life pretty much went on as usual. I don't remember being any shortage of masks in the heath care sector. People definitely didn't stockpile masks. The markets certainly didn't care because we were all fucked at that point anyway.

 

I just don't get why things are so much different this time.

[Dalal.Holdings]

Instead of the worrying about testing and quarantining we should be trying to figure out the fastest way to get to spring/summer or increase UV radiation to naturally limit the virus replication as nature does every year.

 

Anyone spent the time yet to figure out why the virus seems to be much more prevalent in the northern hemisphere then southern? The answer is in the sentence above.

 

I'd think that Iran is doing fairly well in the UV department. But that hasn't helped.

 

I don't necessarily disagree with a lo of what you wrote. But I think it's a little more complicated.

 

Yeah. Viruses like influenza and probably corona are seasonal because they don't transmit well via respiratory droplets in heat and humidity and seem to travel well in cold, dry air.

 

Ridiculous to compare something with much higher mortality to the Flu. Ridiculous to throw your hands up and say nothing can be done, but easy if you do not understand epidemiology/compounding I guess.

 

I found the comment about old folks shocking, but that's just me. But there are people in the medical profession who speak in such manner, so not too surprising.

[Castanza]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/new-york-state-coronavirus-cases-double-senate-passes-8-3-billion-spending-bill-idUSKBN20S1W0

 

The U.S. Senate on Thursday passed an $8.3 billion bill to combat the outbreak 96-1, a day after the House of Representatives overwhelmingly approved it. The bill will now go to President Donald Trump for his signature.

 

Does anyone know who's the asshole who voted against it??

 

Senator Rand Paul

WOW! If I had to guess I would have said Ted Cruz... not the doctor.

 

You should read his reasoning first. When he voted there were already enough to pass the funding. He voted no to make a statement that the funding could have easily been pulled from elsewhere instead of borrowing more.

 

If the vote was going to depend on his vote he would have voted yes. It was a no because he had the luxury. That being said, it’s a bad time to die in that hill under these circumstances.

[james22]

If you don't have work that requires emotional distancing as a defense mechanism, you might be grateful for that (and pray you never understand gallows humor).

 

If you haven't had leadership role responsibilities and experience making difficult decisions under conditions of uncertainty, you might show a little sympathy. (Beating the market is easier than managing the coronavirus response, yet how difficult is it to explain why you didn't last year?)

 

Or maybe just say "thank you" and go on your way?

[Castanza]

 

Sorry to hear. Hope things work out fine for you and your family.

 

Thanks. We are doing great and not losing any sleep. Just staying informed exercising reasonable caution.

+1

Yeah, I'd +1 that too.

 

I don't want to diminish what's going on. This thing is definitely a nasty bug. But the reaction to it is definitely weird.

 

I lived in Toronto during SARS (I actually worked on the subway during the crisis) and I lived in London during H1N1 (England was one of the harder hit places). But I don't remember anything like what is going on right now. There was a general level of concern (I started to cough in my elbow) but life pretty much went on as usual. I don't remember being any shortage of masks in the heath care sector. People definitely didn't stockpile masks. The markets certainly didn't care because we were all fucked at that point anyway.

 

I just don't get why things are so much different this time.

 

Social media

[Gregmal]

 

Sorry to hear. Hope things work out fine for you and your family.

 

Thanks. We are doing great and not losing any sleep. Just staying informed exercising reasonable caution.

+1

Yeah, I'd +1 that too.

 

I don't want to diminish what's going on. This thing is definitely a nasty bug. But the reaction to it is definitely weird.

 

I lived in Toronto during SARS (I actually worked on the subway during the crisis) and I lived in London during H1N1 (England was one of the harder hit places). But I don't remember anything like what is going on right now. There was a general level of concern (I started to cough in my elbow) but life pretty much went on as usual. I don't remember being any shortage of masks in the heath care sector. People definitely didn't stockpile masks. The markets certainly didn't care because we were all fucked at that point anyway.

 

I just don't get why things are so much different this time.

 

Social media

 

This

[LC]

If you haven't had leadership role responsibilities and experience making difficult decisions under conditions of uncertainty, you might show a little sympathy. (Beating the market is easier than managing the coronavirus response, yet how difficult is it to explain why you didn't last year?)

 

I am of the mind that we should be criticizing failure (and even learning from it!) rather then bending over and being grateful for it.

 

Ineffective leaders should not lead others; ineffective money managers should not manage OPM.

 

Hopefully an approaching spring season will be a cure all.