Coronavirus

[Guest Schwab711]

Totally agree with folks on helping SMB out. If the worst externality of all of this is inflation, great. The Fed wanted inflation anyway.

 

My only issue is that 10's millions of individuals that were absolutely screwed (furloughed, so no UE benefits in many states, likely no job to return to whenever they are finally laid off, and no money now so they fall further and further behind on rent/mortgages/bills). All we did for them is send one check for $1,200/person. In major cities (say restaurant workers in NYC), that isn't enough to pay rent, much less food and other bills. We are paying all expenses for small businesses for 2-3 months. We should be doing the same for individuals!

 

This pandemic is currently just going to increase the income and wealth inequalities and lead to UBI at some point. I think whatever policy is agreed to for small businesses should extend to individuals. To avoid double paying people (continue to receive wages due to SBA plan), send 2 checks to everyone not on payrolls (according to ADP/PAYX) and 1 check to everyone in the country. Similar plans could work. I don't know how to make it work but there are ways to avoid having anyone "win" from the USG stimulating the country to keep it healthy.

 

 

I think the explanation that the state forced you to close, so you deserve money, is legally terrible. The state forces all sorts of businesses to close for all sorts of reasons. I can think of all sorts of reasons to not reimburse businesses/people in the future, despite telling them to temporarily close. Running certain types of businesses is a privilege sanctioned by your locality and behold to the rules of such.

[cwericb]

“I used to frequent a small Bergen County deli in Paramus. This place was the last to shut down in Bergen County. They stayed open and fought and at one point the owner said they were doing 300% more business because they were one of the few ones open during the crazy stretch. The governor literally forced them to send their employees home and shut the doors. That is astoundingly anti American...”

 

Wow, I don’t know where to start ... but that is some definition of the American people.

 

Because they were willing to stay open and thereby contribute to the spread of a deadly virus their sales were up 300% due to the fact that more responsible outlets closed to protect their staff and patrons. This deli was simply profiteering at the expense of their competitors - and customers.

 

By the way, I just have to ask, have you taken any steps to avoid catching or spreading the virus? Did you risk going to the deli when it remained open?

[Gregmal]

“I used to frequent a small Bergen County deli in Paramus. This place was the last to shut down in Bergen County. They stayed open and fought and at one point the owner said they were doing 300% more business because they were one of the few ones open during the crazy stretch. The governor literally forced them to send their employees home and shut the doors. That is astoundingly anti American...”

 

Wow, I don’t know where to start ... but that is some definition of the American people.

 

Because they were willing to stay open and thereby contribute to the spread of a deadly virus their sales were up 300% due to the fact that more responsible outlets closed to protect their staff and patrons. This deli was simply profiteering at the expense of their competitors - and customers.

 

By the way, I just have to ask, have you taken any steps to avoid catching or spreading the virus? Did you risk going to the deli when it remained open?

 

Profiteering? You mean running their business the same as they had the past 30+ years? Letting their employees earn a wage(and a good one at that as grateful patrons were tipping insane because they appreciated have this business open)? They arent contributing to the spread of anything. They're following rules and regs with regard to safety. They are meeting a demand(without raising prices). This is profiteering? You think the best measure to stay safe is to stay home? The YOU stay home. You have the right to make that choice. Dictating to others and ruining millions of lives in the process is disgustingly anti-American in every way imaginable. The amount of lives and businesses ruined because of this will greatly exceed that of the virus, which wouldn't you know, seem on pace to resemble a bad year of the flu!

 

Its ironic, but the reason Trump supporters loved Trump was his ability to say F you liberal media. F you critics. And I guarantee the reason he is standing for this nonsense is because he doesnt have the spine to call out state governors and deal with the media heat he'd get. Because if he did, he'd have to take responsibility for the outcome. Which, as Ive said all along, doesnt really have anything to do with him since he isn't really responsible for the decisions being made.

 

Personally, the steps I take, are the same I took in January and February. Maintain a little distance, wash my hands, use common sense. Works fine. Hiding in a box seems to work for others. Many different ways to skin a cat.

[LC]

There's this weird notion that the only thing "American" is this sense of unbridled freedom. But if you look through history you see some of the most successful and defining periods of "America" being ones where the federal government did, in fact, do lots of dictating: the civil war, the buildup and execution in WW2, and cold war are the three that immediately come to mind.

 

I think a term like "democratic adaptability" is a more generalist description of American behavior, if I had to choose one. And this idea that rugged individualism as a defining American characteristic is pretty off-the-mark.

 

To bring it back, this deli owner pretty much said, "Screw all the sacrifice that the rest of society is making". Not illegal (or maybe it was - not sure what the laws in Jersey are) - but dickish behavior.

[Spekulatius]

There's this weird notion that the only thing "American" is this sense of unbridled freedom. But if you look through history you see some of the most successful and defining periods of "America" being ones where the federal government did, in fact, do lots of dictating: the civil war, the buildup and execution in WW2, and cold war are the three that immediately come to mind.

 

I think a term like "democratic adaptability" is a more generalist description of American behavior, if I had to choose one. And this idea that rugged individualism as a defining American characteristic is pretty off-the-mark.

 

To bring it back, this deli owner pretty much said, "Screw all the sacrifice that the rest of society is making". Not illegal (or maybe it was - not sure what the laws in Jersey are) - but dickish behavior.

 

If it’s a public safety issue, the the state can absolutely shut this business down. This deli owner affects the live of other people even those that don’t frequent his deli.

He is unlikely to compensate for any damages or halte issue he may cause.

[Spekulatius]

Cheers:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/joemicallef/2020/04/04/how-the-covid-19-pandemic-is-upending-the-alcoholic-beverage-industry/#3a5bcf0b4b0b

[Gregmal]

So when safety comes to discretionary calls of elected officials, we hoot and whine about violations of freedom, ie the Patriot Act, because, you know, safety be damned they dont got no business reading my text messages, but we're willing to crush businesses and livelihoods in the blink of an eye over a virus thats effect on 95% of the population is negligible? Interesting.

[Guest Schwab711]

So when safety comes to discretionary calls of elected officials, we hoot and whine about violations of freedom, ie the Patriot Act, because, you know, safety be damned they dont got no business reading my text messages, but we're willing to crush businesses and livelihoods in the blink of an eye over a virus thats effect on 95% of the population is negligible? Interesting.

 

SMBs already got money. What are you arguing?

[LC]

So when safety comes to discretionary calls of elected officials, we hoot and whine about violations of freedom, ie the Patriot Act, because, you know, safety be damned they dont got no business reading my text messages, but we're willing to crush businesses and livelihoods in the blink of an eye over a virus thats effect on 95% of the population is negligible? Interesting.

19 years of patriot act vs 1 month of quarantine

[gary17]

a very level-headed take: 

Boris Johnson was a big fan of heard immunity for the UK and wanted to get it done as fast as possible. You want to ask him about his thoughts on the subject again?

 

He got sick.. wasn't that the point?

 

SARS went away without herd immunity

so did EBOLA

 

the scientific fact is after the disease is back down to the manageable level, it can be get rid of with strong contact tracing and containment!

 

[cwericb]

“Profiteering? You mean running their business the same as they had the past 30+ years?”

But that is the point - this is not the same as situation as anything experienced in the last 30+ years.

 

“This is profiteering?”

Yes when your competitors have been responsible citizens and you have taken advantage of that to pick up their business.

 

“The amount of lives and businesses ruined because of this will greatly exceed that of the virus, which wouldn't you know, seem on pace to resemble a bad year of the flu!”

Yes! Because the world has taken a responsible path to do whatever necessary to reduce the deaths. Because of this we have been able to reduce the numbers, so you say - see it wasn’t that bad after all.

 

“And I guarantee the reason he is standing for this nonsense is because he doesnt have the spine to call out state governors and deal with the media heat he'd get.”

We agree 100% on this. He will do anything he can to have some other entity take responsibility for any part of this that he can.

 

PS. If he had any balls he would have had a nation wide shutdown and he could have made a step by step program to return to normal. But he left it up to the goverrnors so he wouldn't have to take any responsibility.

 

[Gregmal]

So when safety comes to discretionary calls of elected officials, we hoot and whine about violations of freedom, ie the Patriot Act, because, you know, safety be damned they dont got no business reading my text messages, but we're willing to crush businesses and livelihoods in the blink of an eye over a virus thats effect on 95% of the population is negligible? Interesting.

 

SMBs already got money. What are you arguing?

 

That this type of discretionary authority on the local levels and lack of spine federally is awful and dangerous.

 

We write checks to them but at the end of the day it will likely still leave them brutally short changed. For instance, what about people with shore rentals? Governor Ass Hat decides to close beaches for the season. Morgtage payment is $3500 a month, which gets deferred, but off season rent rate is $1500 a month. You just lost peak season which is $7,500 a month. Who's compensating you? There's a million seasonal businesses and employees in spots like this. Wedding photographer...Spring is huge? Banning all gatherings. Many of these business owners are self employed. They arent going to get wedding season 2020 back. At least give them the fighting chance. Shit, the economy stalled out as a business owner but I fought and clawed is a lot easier to take then, the governor said no and completely shut down my business even though it wasn't totally necessary.

 

 

 

 

[Castanza]

More pork and more violations of individual liberties and rights. This has become a massive power grab.

 

https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/5717

[Gregmal]

Yup, yup. This whole pandemic has become a convenient way to make(correct that, force) everyone to become more reliant on the government. Total power grab.

 

[Viking]

Workers in tourism/hospitality industries will be especially hard hit. 43,000 workers moving to unemployment benefits. Hard to envision how a resort like this functions as restrictions are relaxed down the road (with social distancing measures likely remaining in place). And at what capacity.

 

Disney World to furlough 43,000 employees

- https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/04/12/coronavirus-latest-news/#link-EMNBMEV3LZGJPAT3HTIXCSFKOU

 

Walt Disney Parks and Resorts has become the latest company to temporarily lay off portions of its immense employee base.

 

The Service Trades Council Union announced on Saturday that approximately 43,000 nonessential employees at Disney World, the iconic Florida theme park, will be furloughed without pay beginning April 19.

 

Full-time furloughed workers will be eligible to sign up for unemployment benefits and retain group insurance benefits for 12 months. However, with uncertainty surrounding how long the theme park will remain closed due to covid-19, workers will go without regular paychecks until further notice.

[Viking]

So how will the world look once we are ready to relax lock down?

 

Bursting the Bubble: Why Sports Aren't Coming Back Soon

https://www.si.com/mlb/2020/04/10/sports-arent-coming-back-soon

 

...Most of these ideas are essentially the same: The players live in quarantine, shuttling from the hotel to the stadium, for the duration of the season. They undergo daily COVID-19 tests. They bring joy to a terrified country. That seems reasonable on the surface. But look closer.

 

First, let’s do away with the suggestion, put forth by President Donald Trump, that football season could go on as normal, beginning on time in September and unfolding in front of crowded stadiums.

 

"We will not have sporting events with fans until we have a vaccine," says Zach Binney, a PhD in epidemiology who wrote his dissertation on injuries in the NFL and now teaches at Emory. Barring a medical miracle, the process of developing and widely distributing a vaccine is likely to take 12 to 18 months.

 

...The leagues know how farfetched their ideas are. So do the players’ unions. They continue to explore options because they would be remiss not to. But fans should understand how unlikely this all is.

 

No one wants to acknowledge how far we are from ordinary life, says Kimberley Miner, a professor at the University of Maine who develops risk assessment for the U.S. Army. “It’s hard to stomach a lot of this information, so it’s not being widely shared,” she explains.

 

...But the reality is that even after we pass the initial peak of infection, the virus is still active. We have already lost more than 16,000 Americans to this disease. Bringing back sports soon would give people a reason to stay inside, a reason to feel hopeful. It would probably also cost more lives.

 

“If people just decide to let it burn in most areas and we do lose a couple million people it’d probably be over by the fall,” says Binney. “You’d have football. You’d also have two million dead people. And let’s talk about that number. We’re really bad at dealing with big numbers. That is a Super Bowl blown up by terrorists, killing every single person in the building, 24 times in six months. It’s 9/11 every day for 18 months. What freedoms have we given up, what wars have we fought, what blood have we shed, what money have we spent in the interest of stopping one more 9/11? This is 9/11 every day for 18 months.”

 

[Liberty]

Thread from doctor:

 

 

1) This is a horrible, relentless, nasty disease in its severe form.  If the patient is obese and/or has renal failure, the prognosis is extremely grim.  They are NOT dying from comorbidities.  They are dying from COVID -19.

 

6) Every single ICU patient (barring QTc issues) got hydroxychloroquine and it doesn’t seem to have helped.  Maybe it helps for prophylaxis or in mild disease, but doesn’t appear to do anything once in ICU.  It is NOT a pancea and should not be given indiscriminately.  (7/10)

[Spekulatius]

Thread from doctor:

 

 

1) This is a horrible, relentless, nasty disease in its severe form.  If the patient is obese and/or has renal failure, the prognosis is extremely grim.  They are NOT dying from comorbidities.  They are dying from COVID -19.

 

6) Every single ICU patient (barring QTc issues) got hydroxychloroquine and it doesn’t seem to have helped.  Maybe it helps for prophylaxis or in mild disease, but doesn’t appear to do anything once in ICU.  It is NOT a pancea and should not be given indiscriminately.  (7/10)

 

My wife works as an RN on dialysis exclusively and she now sees a lot of patients with renal issues that need dialysis.  Could it be that COVID-19 causes renal failure?

[krazeenyc]

all this shit is scary as hell

 

https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-infection-may-cause-lasting-220307511.html

[Viking]

all this shit is scary as hell

 

https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-infection-may-cause-lasting-220307511.html

 

So much we do not understand. There are enough stories like the one you posted for a rational person to not want to get the virus. If we find that there are long lasting health problems in many people who get the virus then the debate around re-opening the economy becomes quite different.

[RichardGibbons]

all this shit is scary as hell

 

https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-infection-may-cause-lasting-220307511.html

 

OK, now this really starting to feel like a game of Plague, Inc.  Add on morbidity risks after half the world is infected....

[Cigarbutt]

The more striking comparison is Portugal vs Spain where Portugal looks way better right now, despite a similar socioeconomic profile and Spain having a better health care system.

Always beware of self-congratulatory praise but policy action in the right direction can make a significant difference:

https://www.theportugalnews.com/news/portugal-quicker-to-take-action-than-italy-spain-and-uk/53552

However, urban population rate is somewhat higher in Spain and it appears (looking at evolving data, SARS and others) that the density of international traffic (travel and trade) matters. The % of direct trade with China is higher in Spain.

What many people in this forum and in other places forget is that for a complex system (social, economic and biology) there will always be many contributing factors that are in many cases closely intertwined. The above example and COVID-19 related deaths due to other pre-existing conditions are good examples. That should not make us interpret that some of these measures being prescribed by experts (such as imposing shelter-in-place early) are not effective. In-fact, by imposing shelter-in-place early on in the pandemic affects other variables described above in a positive way. It becomes less likely that international travelers will go to a region where there is such shelter imposed, trade to that regions will go down as well, etc.

So the argument of what is the *real* cause and effect is not always helpful, there will be many. The goal should be to come up with as short a list of policy prescriptions as possible that will address most of these factors.

Good point.

But much that is talked about is related to secondary and tertiary prevention of the virus.

The typical person that goes to an emergency room with a heart issue will carry pre-existing conditions (reversible risk factors that could be dealt with by primary prevention), will go through a very expensive process that will include a stent or two (shown to be of limited or no value in large number of cases) and will get discharged with a list of pills that basically allow to go back to the previous lifestyle. Doing the best-practice policy prescription during the acute phase fails to deal with the underlying primary issue.

This virus episode is shining a light on the weakness of institutions and processes, on the inequality pattern that will only be exacerbated, on the amazing poor relative value of the health care system, on the corporate leverage (no buffer for unforeseen risks as decreased share count doesn't help paying loans), on the monetary easing that was still going on 10 years after the last episode, on the fiscal weakness with tax cuts and fiscal stimulus increased late in the cycle.

This virus will go away. It's the continuation of previous trends and the residual resilience that will be interesting to follow and people should spend time on primary prevention. Maybe that's too much to ask.

Those who put COVID-19 as the primary cause of the next recession have never filled a death certificate.

[Guest Schwab711]

I don't think many people have accepted that this disease is really bad. Some folks are still irrationally hoping to return to the old normal soon. It's not going to happen.

 

The future will be great, eventually, but we have many obstacles to overcome before then.

 

 

The US alone needs capacity for making and processing 20m+ tests/day. Will be necessary to test HC workers, patients, suspected infections, logistics/production workers, dct. We need substantial equipment capacity increases for healthcare workers. We need Army medic like training to get new workers in the field quickly. We need money to incentivize new HC workers and keep the ones we have. We need processes in place to create field hospitals where breakouts occur going forward. We need to be honest with the population that life is different.

 

There's all this talk of "war" and "enemy", but we've done nothing to believe that's anything more than words. Production needs to shift. Wages increased to attract more essential workers. A lot needs to be done to "reopen" the economy.

 

$850b for SBA grants and direct checks is a bandaid. $3T will be a better bandaid. It's not the stimulus it looks like.

[arcube]

I don't think many people have accepted that this disease is really bad. Some folks are still irrationally hoping to return to the old normal soon. It's not going to happen.

 

The future will be great, eventually, but we have many obstacles to overcome before then.

 

+1.

[Spekulatius]

I don't think many people have accepted that this disease is really bad. Some folks are still irrationally hoping to return to the old normal soon. It's not going to happen.

 

The future will be great, eventually, but we have many obstacles to overcome before then.

 

 

The US alone needs capacity for making and processing 20m+ tests/day. Will be necessary to test HC workers, patients, suspected infections, logistics/production workers, dct. We need substantial equipment capacity increases for healthcare workers. We need Army medic like training to get new workers in the field quickly. We need money to incentivize new HC workers and keep the ones we have. We need processes in place to create field hospitals where breakouts occur going forward. We need to be honest with the population that life is different.

 

There's all this talk of "war" and "enemy", but we've done nothing to believe that's anything more than words. Production needs to shift. Wages increased to attract more essential workers. A lot needs to be done to "reopen" the economy.

 

$850b for SBA grants and direct checks is a bandaid. $3T will be a better bandaid. It's not the stimulus it looks like.

 

 

Well said. I have little doubt that we are going back to normal , but the timeline and foremost the amount of effort to get there are pretty much in doubt and in general seem to be underestimated. Also, it won’t just happen by itself either, actions like you mentioned need to be started right now with great determination and they will need like any war a lot of resources..