Coronavirus

[cubsfan]

I already explained that in a previous post. Did you not see it or just didn't understand what I said.

 

If you want to call people names how about you back it up and show me where I lied. or are you just all mouth?

 

Here you go bold faced liar:

 

Quote from: cwericb on April 04, 2020, 03:21:02 PM

You have already said the poor of Cuba don't deserve help to fight the virus, right. Well there you go.

 

 

 

And I said to you:

 

You really don't need to be a boldfaced liar because we disagree on politics.

 

Feel free to show me anything remotely close to your accusation. .

 

I've said the Communist government of Cuba has failed their people for 60 years

and the welfare of the people is the responsibility of the Cuban government.

 

So grow up already.

 

Show me where I said ANY SUCH THING

[ERICOPOLY]

More of your bullshit once again.

 

Where does your anger come from?

[cubsfan]

More of your bullshit once again.

 

Where does your anger come from?

 

Ha - Likely from the same place as your patronizing attitude. No?

[cwericb]

CUBS:

 

I tried to explain that the embargo you support is against the PEOPLE of Cuba not the government they are doing just fine.

The embargo is starving the PEOPLE of Cuba - not the government they are doing just fine.

The embargo is limiting medicine and equipment to the PEOPLE of Cuba, not the government they are doing just fine.

You fully support Trump’s embargo and in doing so you support punishing the PEOPLE of Cuba, not the government they are doing just fine.

 

Got it now Cubs?  Probably not, but others do.

 

Now you also say: “I can see debate is not your strong suit”

 

Well Cubs your eloquence and command of language is impressive. Here are just a couple of examples of how you have debated others:

 

“Listen bold faced liar,” To me (regarding the above)

 

“More of your bullshit once again.” to Ericopoly

 

“Are you crazy or what?” and “What the fuck is your problem?” To StubbleJumper

 

“Very funny Mr. Know-it-all...”  To  RichardGibbons

 

And numerous other brilliant remarks to some of the respected members of this board who it seem to longer respond to your childish posts.

 

I hope you are intelligent enough to be embarrassed.

 

 

[cubsfan]

CUBS:

 

I tried to explain that the embargo you support is against the PEOPLE of Cuba not the government they are doing just fine.

The embargo is starving the PEOPLE of Cuba - not the government they are doing just fine.

The embargo is limiting medicine and equipment to the PEOPLE of Cuba, not the government they are doing just fine.

You fully support Trump’s embargo and in doing so you support punishing the PEOPLE of Cuba, not the government they are doing just fine.

 

Got it now Cubs?  Probably not, but others do.

 

Now you also say: “I can see debate is not your strong suit”

 

Well Cubs your eloquence and command of language is impressive. Here are just a couple of examples of how you have debated others:

 

“Listen bold faced liar,” To me (regarding the above)

 

“More of your bullshit once again.” to Ericopoly

 

“Are you crazy or what?” and “What the fuck is your problem?” To StubbleJumper

 

“Very funny Mr. Know-it-all...”  To  RichardGibbons

 

And numerous other brilliant remarks to some of the respected members of this board who it seem to longer respond to your childish posts.

 

I hope you are intelligent enough to be embarrassed.

 

I'm never embarrassed to defend myself against someone like you that tells bold faced lies about me and yet is NOT MAN ENOUGH TO ADMIT IT.

 

At least Stubble, when he made an HONEST mistake, was a real man, unlike yourself.

 

Like I suggested to you before - grow up already.

[ERICOPOLY]

Indeed, Obama is the Divider in Chief. His division and derision for the middle class brought us Trump.

 

THAT IS EXACTLY RIGHT.

 

Many people still do not understand populism - you can be a billionaire and still be a populist.

 

And in that regard, I have to hand it to Bernie Sanders - he's a genuine populist, not an community organizer turned elitist like Obama.

 

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/02/what-is-populist-trump/516525/

 

As a result, “Populists in power tend to undermine countervailing powers, which are courts, which are media, which are other parties,” Mudde said. “And they tend to do that through a variety of mostly legal means, but not classic repression.” In Hungary, for instance, Orban hasn’t banned opposition newspapers; rather, his government has directed advertising by state-run organizations away from critical media outlets and toward friendly ones.

 

And when Trump says "many people do not understand"...

 

 

[Spekulatius]

Can we go back to bitching about nasty viruses and the crappy economy, please, please!

[LongHaul]

Good point Eric about the unknown diabetes. 

 

How are people getting the virus that people know of?  What has everyone heard?

Totally serious question as I have not seen any analysis of this but would love to.

 

I have heard of a few cases.

1.  From an opthamalogist

2.  Large gatherings - choir in churches, likely near people.

3.  Sitting in a seat someone else sat in 3 days prior in a church in Singapore.

 

How else are people hearing others are becoming infected?

[LongHaul]

Also - on Fauci's point about the primary way a mask helps is so he doesn't infect others.

I think he is totally wrong.  Commonsense is that masks trap respiratory droplets coming in and out.  The First Lady is right!  Mask help reduce your chance of becoming infected.

Isn't that amazing - America's top doctor on that is probably completely wrong on what could be the most effective way to lower the R0.

 

 

[Viking]

Can we go back to bitching about nasty viruses and the crappy economy, please, please!

 

Agreed. And no feeding the trolls. (Turn the other cheek :-)

[ERICOPOLY]

It's interesting reading about the internal debate over hydroxychloroquine -- I thought Fauci had explained this well enough already at a press briefing weeks ago.

 

 

While discussing the latest on hydroxychloroquine this weekend, an exasperated Navarro lashed out at Dr. Anthony Fauci, one of the advisers who has urged caution about the drug, a person familiar with the meeting told CNN.

 

Navarro had brought a stack of paperwork with him into the Situation Room on the drug, arguing it was proof that it could work to treat coronavirus, which Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert, disagreed with because it was not data.

"What are you talking about?" Fauci asked -- a question that set Navarro off. He became indignant, and at one point, accused Fauci of opposing Trump's travel restrictions on China, which confused many in the room, given Fauci was one of the initial few to agree with Trump on the move, the source said.

 

Several aides later said they were unfazed by Navarro's outburst, given he has them regularly.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/05/politics/white-house-malaria-drug-hydroxychloroquine-disagreement/index.html

 

[KCLarkin]

Also - on Fauci's point about the primary way a mask helps is so he doesn't infect others.

I think he is totally wrong.  Commonsense is that masks trap respiratory droplets coming in and out.  The First Lady is right!  Mask help reduce your chance of becoming infected.

Isn't that amazing - America's top doctor on that is probably completely wrong on what could be the most effective way to lower the R0.

 

EDIT: BASED ON THE ARSTECHNICA ARTICLE POSTED BY LIBERTY LATER IN THIS THREAD, I NOW DOUBT THEIR EFFECTIVENESS.

[KCLarkin]

Navarro had brought a stack of paperwork with him into the Situation Room on the drug, arguing it was proof that it could work to treat coronavirus, which Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert, disagreed with because it was not data.

 

Not to feed the trolls, but I go back to my comment from a couple weeks ago. They are already using these drugs in Fance and Italy. The CFR in Italy and Italy is over 10%! It seems obvious that if these drugs are effective, they are only minimally effective (so any effect would only be seen in large, well-designed trials).

 

I understand the desire for a miracle drug, but there are much more promising candidates.

[randomep]

Can we go back to bitching about nasty viruses and the crappy economy, please, please!

 

Before we do that though, can someone tell me who the people are in each corner? Is this a one on one boxing match or is it like a tag team? or is it 2 or 1?

 

I am mildly curious.....

[bearprowler6]

Also - on Fauci's point about the primary way a mask helps is so he doesn't infect others.

I think he is totally wrong.  Commonsense is that masks trap respiratory droplets coming in and out.  The First Lady is right!  Mask help reduce your chance of becoming infected.

Isn't that amazing - America's top doctor on that is probably completely wrong on what could be the most effective way to lower the R0.

 

Two points:

- Scientists and doctors rely on evidence. There is little evidence that masks protect the wearer in low-risk situations. There are two reasons why there is little evidence. One, they probably are less effective than you think (see below). But mostly, ethics boards tend not to approve research studies where you intentionally expose someone to an infectious disease.

 

- Common sense is that masks droplets coming in and out. So they should provide equal protection in either case. But if you think about it, you will see that Fauci is right.

 

Let's say a homemade mask reduces 50% of the droplets you inhale. But you can also get infected through the eyes, so let's say that reduces your protection by 1/3. You can also get infected by fiddling with an infected mask or improper washing. So maybe a mask is 25% effective. But respiratory droplets are probably not the primary transmission mechanism. Infection also occurs when you touch an infected person or item. Let's say that is 50% of transmissions. So a mask only reduces your odds of infection by 12.5%. (all numbers made up but roughly based on the limited research I have seen)

 

But what happens if you put that mask on the infected person? The mask basically eliminates the airborne virus. Any droplets are unlikely to be expelled with enough force to enter your eyes, mouth, or nose. It will also reduce the number of droplets on nearby items. So a mask on an infected person might be 75% effective.

 

Imagine you are in a crowded grocery store. There are 99 susceptible people and 1 infected person. If you put a mask only on the 99 susceptible people, the infected person will be walking around shedding virus on the shopping cart, breathing out droplets and aerosols, breathing on the veggies, touching the boxes, coughing on the checkout counter, touching the PIN pad.... So you can see why the Fauci and the CDC recommended masks for the infected people only! Now the problem was underestimating asymptomatic transmission and the lack of testing. The CDC advice is correct, but only if you can tell who is infected!

 

KCL using your numbers...

 

--masks worn by non-infected persons are 12.5% effective in preventing infection

 

--masks worn by infected persons are 75% effective in eliminating transmission

 

Have you not just made the case for everyone wearing a mask? And that is just to assist with lowering the spread of the corona virus let alone the impact on assisting with lowering the spread of other infections/ diseases.

 

 

[Liberty]

Thread:

[Liberty]

The president wasn’t supposed to do a briefing today, but has told several advisers they are free tv and high ratings for him.

 

 

Also: https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2764199/use-hydroxychloroquine-chloroquine-during-covid-19-pandemic-what-every-clinician

[Dalal.Holdings]

Also - on Fauci's point about the primary way a mask helps is so he doesn't infect others.

I think he is totally wrong.  Commonsense is that masks trap respiratory droplets coming in and out.  The First Lady is right!  Mask help reduce your chance of becoming infected.

Isn't that amazing - America's top doctor on that is probably completely wrong on what could be the most effective way to lower the R0.

 

Two points:

- Scientists and doctors rely on evidence. There is little evidence that masks protect the wearer in low-risk situations. There are two reasons why there is little evidence. One, they probably are less effective than you think (see below). But mostly, ethics boards tend not to approve research studies where you intentionally expose someone to an infectious disease.

 

Doctors/scientists love to say: "there is no evidence that...".

 

But we should remember what useless Taleb says: "Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence"

 

After all, there's a reason there haven't been too many randomized controlled trials studying the impact of mask wearing on a pandemic involving spread via respiratory droplets.

 

Again, invoking Taleb/or a trader's POV: wearing a mask provides asymmetric payoffs for the individual: little downside, lots of potential upside: (i.e. like the asymmetry Trump gets with his loyalists)

 

For Fauci and the government, lots of downside if people start hoarding masks because they did not prepare our stockpiles and have burned a few bridges with nations who can produce them for us.

[cwericb]

I think the question of masks is pretty simple. Surely it is a fact that if everyone wore a mask when outside of their home and in proximity to others the rate of spread would be reduced. And agin is it not better to err on the side of caution?

[ukvalueinvestment]

Agreed.  You are all value investors aren't you?  What's the downside in wearing a mask if you are not depriving medical personnel.  Even wearing some non medical thing like a bandana helps to change attitudes and get people into the mindset that wearing a mask is normal.

 

[cwericb]

I suspect that much of the virus is spread by people who don't yet know they have it. Therefore if everyone wore a mask the spread would be reduced.

[minten]

I understand the desire for a miracle drug, but there are much more promising candidates.

 

Remdesivir apparently has a clinical trial readout somewhere this week.

[gary17]

Hope trump doesn’t see this

 

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/big-short-s-michael-burry-joins-twitter-with-pleas-to-end-covid-19-lockdown-1.1417820

 

Big Short's Michael Burry joins Twitter with pleas to end COVID-19 lockdown

[Dalal.Holdings]

Hope trump doesn’t see this

 

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/big-short-s-michael-burry-joins-twitter-with-pleas-to-end-covid-19-lockdown-1.1417820

 

Big Short's Michael Burry joins Twitter with pleas to end COVID-19 lockdown

 

Well he went in big on Gamestop and Tailored Brands, so not surprising.

[orthopa]

We appear to be at the top of the curve in NY and still have underwhelming trends in other states. Oregon is sending out ventilators, they are done. Looking at the data NY is the complete outlier. Again they are the exception, not the rule.

 

Interesting that Fauci sat on the sidelines during the presser yesterday. I wonder/have a feeling people within the administration are a little tired of his worst case scenario and dire predictions. Especially with signs that we are nearing/at the top and currently at 10kish deaths. This is the worst week coming up, Overall deaths in the US way down compared to the corona virus deaths. We are saving humanity indirectly.

 

The model used for all of this wildly wrong and NYC discharging way more pts then admitting. ICU need off by a factor of 10x per Cuomos previous comments. Holy shit.

 

Fauci now saying maybe 25-50% of people asymptomatic? No shit, didnt I say that a month ago?  Once more serologic testing comes out we will find that way, way, way more people have antibodies, millions of people. The death rate will plummet as I suggested back in one of my first posts and even though this "isnt the flu" we will find the death rate approaches it rapidly with serologic testing.

 

Based on the data there appears to be no question that warmer climates seem to limit the spread, look at CA, FL, TX, AZ, NM.

 

I have a feeling those who were at first forecasting the most dire predictions will become disingenuous and suggest we are not counting enough dead bodies!!!

 

Ill stick my neck out again and say country is opened by 4/30. Fauci losing favor with Trump and will slide into the background. Watch for more evidence on a daily basis that this was way more wide spread then thought. 

 

We will see in the next 7-10 days but I think there is a good chance that we will find that the lockdowns did nothing as evidenced by the death rate, number of deaths and miles traveled in the Dalal's ealier post. A lot of the areas that people traveled the most have the lowest death rates!!!! How do we explain that?