Coronavirus

[Dalal.Holdings]

It's Obama's fault that Trump became President. People are angry, on drugs and/or have no/low paying jobs.

 

People are called xenophobic if they are proud of their country. They are called bigots if they believe in God. They are called racists if they support police officers.

 

Yes, Obama's fault. Or maybe it was the GFC before him that didn't become a depression thanks to him, but left "People angry, on drugs and/or have no/low paying jobs.". The 1930s were much worse than the 2010s.

[mloub]

Couple of questions that have been nagging at me so I will just throw them out there.

 

How do we know when this thing is over?

 

One person can spread the virus to dozens of others, correct? And each one of those can spread it to numerous others so it spreads on an exponancial basis.

 

So a long as even a few people in the world has the virus, how do we return to normal life with a normal economy?

 

So aside from finding effective treatments and a vaccine, how can anyone say it will not continue to spread unless we know that no one has it?

 

This is an important question, and there is an answer which hopefully will be useful in thinking about this even if it is imprecise.

 

If we think about R0, it is the measure of how infectious a virus is in a population of people who are fully susceptible to it. We know Covid-19 has a high R0 (about 2.5). But the rate of spread in the "real world" is a bit different, because not every host is fully susceptible, especially if we assume that those who have gotten Covid-19 and survived are likely immune (or at least, partially immune), which while unproven would be a safe assumption given past experience.

 

So when can we declare this thing over? When the rate of immune hosts (those who have developed natural immunity after recovering, or those that have received a vaccine, when one becomes available) is high enough to limit the rate of spread to a manageable level. Call this a real-world adjusted R0.

 

That is why many smart folks are warning that this won't be over until we have a vaccine. I would just add to that, or until enough folks have been infected and recovered. Here's to hoping the vaccine comes first.

 

M.

 

Edit: Just to add a more positive thought. We don't necessarily have to exist in a state of lock down until the vaccine arrives. Once we have brought the level of current infection down to a more manageable level through the current lockdowns, we can then shift back to a surveillance, tracking and quarantine model to fight off any local outbreaks. Something which could have saved us all this grief if it was done successfully in February/early March.

 

 

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

And back to the Coronavirus...

 

“Without any containment measures whatsoever the WHO estimates one person with this virus affects 2.5 others.”

 

So let’s round it off to 3 people. If each of those 3 spread it to 3 more and they spread it to 3 more (already we are up to 81 people) and each of them spread it to 3 more. I mean, in a matter of a week that one single person could have essentially infected thousands.

 

So barring a treatment or vaccine which could be months. if not years away it is hard not to be pessimistic as to how we resolve this any time soon.

 

This is a simplified way of looking at the problem. Not everyone spreads it to 3 other people. Some people spread it to 10 people (super spreaders), some to none.

 

What happens to R naught when there is a global pandemic, everyone limits social contact and starts wearing masks? I estimate it goes downwards on average.

 

There are some diseases that are very contagious that are very hard to contain like Measles, but I think with masks and the right social changes, Covid can be stemmed significantly over time. And hopefully that buys time for healthcare system and effective treatment/vaccine.

[minten]

So let’s round it off to 3 people. If each of those 3 spread it to 3 more and they spread it to 3 more (already we are up to 81 people) and each of them spread it to 3 more. I mean, in a matter of a week that one single person could have essentially infected thousands.

 

The basic principle is correct, but your time axis isn't. The virus has a number of days (2-7 I believe) of incubation time in a person, you're not immediately transmitting virus once you get infected, and you'll be most contagious when you're sickest. So, it won't spread to thousands in a matter of a week. Given time and no measures, obviously you'll get the some effect in the end but a lot slower.

[RichardGibbons]

So barring a treatment or vaccine which could be months. if not years away it is hard not to be pessimistic as to how we resolve this any time soon.

 

I'm actually pretty optimistic, not based on a return to complete normal, but rather a return to normalcy. I think the frequently posted Hammer and Dance article describes nicely what can happen.

 

If you take the Hammer and Dance article as the medium-term objective, you just need to look for ways to reduce the impact on lives. Based on results in Asian countries, everyone wearing masks dramatically reduces the R0.  That makes the dance phase much easier.

 

What's more, as each week goes by, we add to our knowledge of how to treat this disease. If we can reduce the transmissibility through masks and reduce the severity and length of time in hospital through new treatments, then we're basically back to the flu.

 

So, I think there's a decent chance we're in a normal--with the addition of people wearing masks--by July.

 

[Viking]

So barring a treatment or vaccine which could be months. if not years away it is hard not to be pessimistic as to how we resolve this any time soon.

 

I'm actually pretty optimistic, not based on a return to complete normal, but rather a return to normalcy. I think the frequently posted Hammer and Dance article describes nicely what can happen.

 

If you take the Hammer and Dance article as the medium-term objective, you just need to look for ways to reduce the impact on lives. Based on results in Asian countries, everyone wearing masks dramatically reduces the R0.  That makes the dance phase much easier.

 

What's more, as each week goes by, we add to our knowledge of how to treat this disease. If we can reduce the transmissibility through masks and reduce the severity and length of time in hospital through new treatments, then we're basically back to the flu.

 

So, I think there's a decent chance we're in a normal--with the addition of people wearing masks--by July.

 

What about group activities (sports and work). I was surprised to read Trumps meeting with sports executives were discussing Aug or Sept as the targeted start up. That means 4.5 months (or more) of lock down for these groups. The length of time the virus will be crimping economic activity keeps getting extended out. This tells me the economic impact is still being underestimated and perhaps significantly so.

 

Analyzing the Legal Hurdles of Bringing Back Sports

President Donald Trump told sports executives that he wants leagues to resume with spectators by August or September. However, most of the logistics to return to play are out of his control.

 

https://www.si.com/nba/2020/04/04/legal-hurdles-sports-returning-coronavirus-trump

[randomep]

 

 

From Iceland link:

 

  Confirmed infections: 1417

  Total samples:  23640

 

    (1417/23640) * 100 = 5.99%. 

 

    How are you getting 0.3%?

 

Assuming your random sampling comment is correct, 6% of Iceland being infected with a swab test that does not even tell people who are already infected, nonsymptomatic and cleared of virus in a country we dont consider to have Covid outbreak is pretty high.

 

All the tests done were looking for the presence of the virus.  The true test for this statistic is looking for the virus antibody. This test would show if you have been exposed in the past and now have immunity. The former test would only classify you as negative which implies you are not ever exposed.  So it way under reports number of people exposed.

[randomep]

So barring a treatment or vaccine which could be months. if not years away it is hard not to be pessimistic as to how we resolve this any time soon.

 

I'm actually pretty optimistic, not based on a return to complete normal, but rather a return to normalcy. I think the frequently posted Hammer and Dance article describes nicely what can happen.

 

If you take the Hammer and Dance article as the medium-term objective, you just need to look for ways to reduce the impact on lives. Based on results in Asian countries, everyone wearing masks dramatically reduces the R0.  That makes the dance phase much easier.

 

What's more, as each week goes by, we add to our knowledge of how to treat this disease. If we can reduce the transmissibility through masks and reduce the severity and length of time in hospital through new treatments, then we're basically back to the flu.

 

So, I think there's a decent chance we're in a normal--with the addition of people wearing masks--by July.

 

Ya and wouldn't it be shocking if Trump was at least partially right?  That we may be blowing this a bit out of porportion?

 

I am not ruling that out.

[RichardGibbons]

What about group activities (sports and work).

 

For me, work would certainly be included in the mask-wearing normalcy. I'm not sure about sporting events--I think it depends on how effective masks are at reducing the R0 in such venues. I suppose international travel falls into this category as well.

 

That said, to me, the normalcy that matters is work. The economy is a big deal, and if we can get back to a normal-ish economy (including malls, restaurants and most service businesses, but maybe not including theatre, sports and other events that bring together groups of hundreds of people), then I feel like we'd have a good degree of economic and health stability.

 

Basically, we should aim for South Korea without the creepy mobile phone tracking.

[RichardGibbons]

Ya and wouldn't it be shocking if Trump was at least partially right?  That we may be blowing this a bit out of porportion?

 

Nah, Trump's already been proven wrong.

 

If there's a hurricane, and everyone boards up their windows and takes shelter, and few people die, it would be pretty stupid to say, "Hey, the deaths in the last hurricane weren't that bad--the threat was way overblown. So let's just ignore the hurricane the next time."

[arcube]

Something to keep in mind for the future. This is really interesting. We will all have to be more cautious than we ever were.

[Dalal.Holdings]

So barring a treatment or vaccine which could be months. if not years away it is hard not to be pessimistic as to how we resolve this any time soon.

 

I'm actually pretty optimistic, not based on a return to complete normal, but rather a return to normalcy. I think the frequently posted Hammer and Dance article describes nicely what can happen.

 

If you take the Hammer and Dance article as the medium-term objective, you just need to look for ways to reduce the impact on lives. Based on results in Asian countries, everyone wearing masks dramatically reduces the R0.  That makes the dance phase much easier.

 

What's more, as each week goes by, we add to our knowledge of how to treat this disease. If we can reduce the transmissibility through masks and reduce the severity and length of time in hospital through new treatments, then we're basically back to the flu.

 

So, I think there's a decent chance we're in a normal--with the addition of people wearing masks--by July.

 

Ya and wouldn't it be shocking if Trump was at least partially right?  That we may be blowing this a bit out of porportion?

 

I am not ruling that out.

 

Well if Trump is right, he gets all the credit. If he is wrong, it's Obama's fault because he wouldn't be President if it weren't for Obama. He has successfully passed the buck to his predecessor (among his followers). Real 8-D chess over here.

 

Really how he has operated since birth--he gets all the upside, others the downside (the buck stops...). Kind of like what he wants for the oil industry.

[mcliu]

Earlier this week, officials in both Germany and France accused the U.S. of diverting medical supplies meant for their respective countries by outbidding the original buyers.

 

On Friday, officials in Berlin alleged that the U.S. intercepted a shipment of medical equipment in Thailand from American medical supply company 3M and diverted it to the U.S., the German newspaper Der Tagesspiegel reported. Berlin's interior minister called the alleged interception "modern piracy."

 

U.S. gets to reap the benefits of having global corporate powerhouse firms like 3M that have moats and sell all over the world. Actions like this undermine those companies and longstanding relationships with Germany/France (NATO allies which are not valued these days).

 

As was mentioned on here, actions like this should merely encourage Germany and France to cut out 3M in the future and grow their own in house firms.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/04/04/coronavirus-latest-news/#link-GQ4VHJ7T2ZGQPD3VUWO5W6QZRU

 

Berlin backtracks after accusing U.S. of ‘piracy’ when 200,000 masks went missing

 

A Berlin official, who accused the U.S. administration of “piracy” after 200,000 masks for the city police went missing, backtracked Saturday and said the masks were ordered from a German firm.

 

In a statement distributed by the city mayor’s office and senate a day earlier, Andreas Geisel, Berlin’s senator for the interior, was quoted as saying a delivery of FFP2 masks only made it as far as Bangkok before it was “confiscated.”

 

...

 

But Geisel wrote on Twitter on Saturday that he had clarified that the order was placed with a German firm and that supply chain issues were being “reviewed.”

 

In a statement earlier Saturday, 3M had denied German news reports that it was the supplier in question.

[cwericb]

“Really how he has operated since birth--he gets all the upside, others the downside (the buck stops...).”

 

“The buck stops here” Harry Truman

“Ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country  ”Jack Kennedy

“I don’t understand wind” Donnie Trump

[ERICOPOLY]

When the news tells us that another perfectly healthy person has died of COVID-19, how can we be comfortable that the reporting is accurate?

 

One-Third of Adults with Diabetes Still Don’t Know They Have It

 

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/one-third-adults-diabetes-still-dont-know-they-have-it

 

About 2.8 percent of U.S. adults — one-third of those with diabetes — still don’t know they have it.

 

And what percentage of infected US adults are being killed by COVID-19?

[cubsfan]

“Really how he has operated since birth--he gets all the upside, others the downside (the buck stops...).”

 

“The buck stops here” Harry Truman

“Ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country  ”Jack Kennedy

“I don’t understand wind” Donnie Trump

 

You guys are funny actually.

 

If you haven't noticed, Donald Trump is clearly in charge here.

Worse yet for you - his poll numbers are at an all time high right now. You get to suck on that for a while. Too bad.

 

Reason:  Americans are glued to his daily crisis briefings. They are seeing a leader clearly in charge attempting to navigate the biggest crisis

of their lives - while you and the fake news second guess him. Americans are on to your pettiness and vitriol.

 

I know it's tough for you to swallow - but hey, so was the Russia Hoax, the Ukraine impeachment joke, the Kavanaugh hearings, etc.

 

No wonder Rachel Maddow and The NY Times editorial staff are DEMANDING that the Trump daily briefings be stopped.

 

Trump is sucking all the oxygen out of the Biden room.

 

Sorry fellas, I know the truth hurts.

 

[ERICOPOLY]

You get to suck on that for a while.

 

Here it comes...

 

Americans are on to your pettiness and vitriol.

[Gregmal]

This tells you all you need to know about some folks and outlets. Actively rooting against America and going out of their way to use a crisis to blatantly misrepresent everything they can in order to make a president they don’t like, look bad.

 

Too many stories to mention but what’s the count now of the misrepresented stories? The latest being the “commandeered shipments in Germany”, just prior the whole sending equipment out of the country ban; while leaving our that 68 other countries already set precedent. And this is just the last 3 days...

[cubsfan]

You get to suck on that for a while.

 

Here it comes...

 

Americans are on to your pettiness and vitriol.

 

Sorry about the Kafka nightmare for you...you just hate it when it gets turned around to you.

[Dalal.Holdings]

We know the formula:

 

When you criticize a Republican President's terrible response to a pandemic that he minimized repeatedly, you "root for America to fail".

 

When you literally hope for failure in a Democratic President, you deserve the Medal of Freedom:

 

I Hope Obama Fails.

 

--Rush Limbaugh, January 2009 (when America was in the throes of the GFC).

[randomep]

 

 

Well if Trump is right, he gets all the credit. If he is wrong, it's Obama's fault because he wouldn't be President if it weren't for Obama. He has successfully passed the buck to his predecessor (among his followers). Real 8-D chess over here.

 

Really how he has operated since birth--he gets all the upside, others the downside (the buck stops...). Kind of like what he wants for the oil industry.

 

ya in that sense Trump is the ultimate con man.

 

HOWEVER, I am not talking really about Trump I am just referring to this extreme tyranny of the politically correct morally superior , intellectually better attitude of left wing groups.  It is very difficult to dissent, the verbal harassment and pressure will put anyone off.  And the level of group think in higher education and business life is just too much and that's why guys like Buffett and Munger and Gates standout so much because the vast vast majority of the world are group thinkers.  They think for us.

 

Now I believe the majority attitude is ok let's err on the side of caution, so what if we overreact.  But i think there are costs to going overboard with this global shut down thing.  I just think the evidence better be compelling for the showdown to go on longer than 1 or 2 months, or else people are going to lose respect for government and authority and just disobey the orders.

 

 

[Gregmal]

We know the formula:

 

When you criticize a Republican President's terrible response to a pandemic that he minimized repeatedly, you "root for America to fail".

 

When you literally hope for failure in a Democratic President, you deserve the Medal of Freedom:

 

I Hope Obama Fails.

 

--Rush Limbaugh, January 2009 (when America was in the throes of the GFC).

 

Its telling that there biggest mess here is the cesspool called NYC where you live. You've got your mayor and your governor, both whom have handled things vastly differently. Both of whom you elected. And you blame Trump....

[Dalal.Holdings]

We know the formula:

 

When you criticize a Republican President's terrible response to a pandemic that he minimized repeatedly, you "root for America to fail".

 

When you literally hope for failure in a Democratic President, you deserve the Medal of Freedom:

 

I Hope Obama Fails.

 

--Rush Limbaugh, January 2009 (when America was in the throes of the GFC).

 

Its telling that there biggest mess here is the cesspool called NYC where you live. You've got your mayor and your governor, both whom have handled things vastly differently. Both of whom you elected. And you blame Trump....

 

Here you are "rooting for America". What a patriot.

[Dalal.Holdings]

I haven't seen Flu outbreak do something like this:

 

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been admitted to hospital 11 days after confirming he had contracted #coronavirus.

 

 

Hope he's ok.

[cwericb]

"Now I believe the majority attitude is ok let's err on the side of caution, so what if we overreact."

 

Absolutely. This seems to be what some don't seem to understand. Overreaction will be expensive. Underreaction will kill people. This is new unexplored territory and no one knows how it will work out so it is better to overreact than underreact.