Coronavirus

[LC]

For the board's digestion:

 

http://www.euromomo.eu/index.html

 

Pooled estimates of all-cause mortality show, overall, normal expected levels in the participating countries; however, increased excess mortality is notable in Italy.

 

Data from 24 participating countries or regions were included in this week’s pooled analysis of all-cause mortality in Europe.

 

The number of deaths in the recent weeks should be interpreted with caution as adjustments for delayed registrations may be imprecise. Furthermore, results of pooled analyses may vary depending on countries included in the weekly analyses. Pooled analyses are adjusted for variation between the included countries and for differences in the local delay in reporting.

 

Note concerning COVID-19 related mortality as part of the all-cause mortality figures reported by EuroMOMO

 

Over the past few days, the EuroMOMO hub has received many questions about the weekly all-cause mortality data and the possible contribution of any COVID-19 related mortality. Some wonder why no increased mortality is observed in the reported mortality figures for the COVID-19 affected countries.

 

The answer is that increased mortality that may occur primarily at subnational level or within smaller focal areas, and/or concentrated within smaller age groups, may not be detectable at the national level, even more so not in the pooled analysis at European level, given the large total population denominator. Furthermore, there is always a few weeks of delay in death registration and reporting. Hence, the EuroMOMO mortality figures for the most recent weeks must be interpreted with some caution.

 

Therefore, although increased mortality may not be immediately observable in the EuroMOMO figures, this does not mean that increased mortality does not occur in some areas or in some age groups, including mortality related to COVID-19.

 

[Gregmal]

Meanwhile, Dalal has been posting good info for weeks, and I don't care what his profession is.  Credentialism is unnecessary.

 

Come on, this is turning things upside down. Credentialism is unnecessary unless you first bring it up yourself; nobody here knows my profession as I've never told you what it is.

When someone first comes out saying he's an MD while making medical statements therefore sounding like someone who knows what he's saying, then later deletes that comment because perhaps he's really not, then of course that's on him. Not on the person who noticed and comments on it.

 

Exactly. There was another fellow, by the name of RuleNumberOne, who was basically run out of town for saying a lot while also arguably saying nothing. In hind site, RuleNumberOne's repeated rants and warnings proved to be highly accurate and probably some of the most valuable postings thrown together on this board the past year. But nonetheless, screaming loudly while essentially offering up no useful investment angle, many find to be a distraction, at least on an investment website. Dalal and others have offered some valuable stuff, but the ranting and raving and attacking is just unnecessary.

 

If I make a statement, like "I think this is fertile ground for long/short", I try to communicate this clearly and give examples of what I'm doing, as do others. Hopefully sometimes there is reciprocation which is what makes this place great. Not insinuating the end of the world but refusing to actually make a market call. Not "I'm buying puts!" despite outrageously expensive premium costs, while giving no specific underlying name, or strike or date... and then hooting and hollering when the market moves. Buying puts on cruise ships and airlines is a horrible risk adjusted idea right now; even if they end up making money. Its like the guy who wins the lottery and boasts of his skill even though everyone qualified knows the odds still said buying lottery tickets is a dumb money move.

[minten]

For the board's digestion:

 

http://www.euromomo.eu/index.html

 

wow...

[Dalal.Holdings]

Meanwhile, Dalal has been posting good info for weeks, and I don't care what his profession is.  Credentialism is unnecessary.

 

Come on, this is turning things upside down. Credentialism is unnecessary unless you first bring it up yourself; nobody here knows my profession as I've never told you what it is.

When someone first comes out saying he's an MD while making medical statements therefore sounding like someone who knows what he's saying, then later deletes that comment because perhaps he's really not, then of course that's on him. Not on the person who noticed and comments on it.

 

Exactly. There was another fellow, by the name of RuleNumberOne, who was basically run out of town for saying a lot while also arguably saying nothing. In hind site, RuleNumberOne's repeated rants and warnings proved to be highly accurate and probably some of the most valuable postings thrown together on this board the past year. But nonetheless, screaming loudly while essentially offering up no useful investment angle, many find to be a distraction, at least on an investment website. Dalal and others have offered some valuable stuff, but the ranting and raving and attacking is just unnecessary.

 

If I make a statement, like "I think this is fertile ground for long/short", I try to communicate this clearly and give examples of what I'm doing, as do others. Hopefully sometimes there is reciprocation which is what makes this place great. Not insinuating the end of the world but refusing to actually make a market call. Not "I'm buying puts!" despite outrageously expensive premium costs, while giving no specific underlying name, or strike or date... and then hooting and hollering when the market moves. Buying puts on cruise ships and airlines is a horrible risk adjusted idea right now; even if they end up making money. Its like the guy who wins the lottery and boasts of his skill even though everyone qualified knows the odds still said buying lottery tickets is a dumb money move.

 

Gregmal--I am in fact a practicing MD in NYC (not a psychiatrist) and I trained as an engineer before that where compounding/differential equations and understanding large data sets, stochastic/Monte Carlo simulations (primarily in MATLAB) was a key facet of my work/education. I have said much more than "nothing" on here and on the Tesla thread before that. Being a contrarian ain't easy, that's for sure.

 

I owe you and people on here nothing--not my stock picks, not my put positions, nor that I went to cash "in chunks" a month ago, but you got it out of me and now mock me for laughable "carrying costs" when it paid out 4-5 to 1 in 2 weeks. You have added negative value to this thread overall, have been completely wrong, and have not at all revealed how you are positioned or who you are.

 

I admit that I have been abrasive on here, but your own behavior has not exactly been a shining example for others.

 

As you may have read, things are busy here, so good luck. I'll be at work and in the meantime on Twitter and other outlets.

 

 

[LC]

For the board's digestion:

 

http://www.euromomo.eu/index.html

 

wow...

 

As far as I can find it is the only timely mortality data we have. CDC publishes a weekly report but I cannot find underlying data for USA (that is recent - public datasets only go through 2018). I have not checked for Asian countries.

 

As to the European data itself, I won't make any conclusions, just presenting the evidence. Draw from it what you will.

[Gregmal]

Of course you owe nothing to anyone. But then that begs the question of what exactly are you doing on an investing forum? And what exactly you are getting out of these rants?

 

Ive probably been more transparent with respect to disclosing positions, setups, and ideas than 95% of folks here. Many of us sold heavily in Q4/Q1 on valuation concerns. Even shorted. So if you did as well, great. And no this isn't to say the portfolio looks sterling right now, it doesn't.

 

If you are a doctor, especially in NYC, you probably have bigger things to worry about anyway. Regardless, and genuinely, good luck with all that. There's more value to what you're doing there than there is fumbling around here and on Twitter.

[ERICOPOLY]

Here is a fine example of how a dysfunctional government is fighting Covid-19...

 

WASHINGTON – President Donald Trump said Friday he has asked Vice President Mike Pence not to call governors he says have not been "appreciative" enough of his efforts on coronavirus – a group of critics that included a governor he referred to only by gender,

 

"Don't call the woman in Michigan," Trump said at a press conference while discussing Pence's work as head of the White House Coronavirus Task Force.

 

Yup, that is how you pull together to fight a pandemic.

 

Underlying this political dance is Trump's tendency to talk about the government as though it's his own private business. The former real estate mogul often discusses government business like a transaction dependent on relationships or personal advantage, rather than a national obligation.

 

https://news.yahoo.com/flatter-fight-governors-seeking-help-155038606.html

 

 

[mcliu]

 

WHO.. or ChinaHO?

[clutch]

Of course you owe nothing to anyone. But then that begs the question of what exactly are you doing on an investing forum? And what exactly you are getting out of these rants?

 

Ive probably been more transparent with respect to disclosing positions, setups, and ideas than 95% of folks here. Many of us sold heavily in Q4/Q1 on valuation concerns. Even shorted. So if you did as well, great. And no this isn't to say the portfolio looks sterling right now, it doesn't.

 

If you are a doctor, especially in NYC, you probably have bigger things to worry about anyway. Regardless, and genuinely, good luck with all that. There's more value to what you're doing there than there is fumbling around here and on Twitter.

 

Lol, seriously. People should spend more time looking after their close ones instead of arguing about the situation. Or maybe, contribute to one of many initiatives going on to fight the pandemic.

[LC]

 

WHO.. or ChinaHO?

 

What a display of cowardice.

[Guest cherzeca]

sanity introduced to this thread.  you're welcome. http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2020/03/maybe-its-not-pandemic-after-all.html

[Guest Schwab711]

sanity introduced to this thread.  you're welcome. http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2020/03/maybe-its-not-pandemic-after-all.html

 

What do you think we're all doing here?

 

We have done this ad nauseum. If you reduce human interaction for most of the country for weeks, the losses won't be as bad as it would've been if we hadn't done a shutdown. The virus is most deadly early (assuming no mutation or alternative strain) because effective treatments (beyond basics) are unknown and the lowest proportion of the population has immunity (0%). Going forward, we'll have slightly better outcomes as those metrics improve. This article also ignores that deaths will accumulate for months. That's to be expected. It's the deluge of cases leading to excess deaths that we are helping people prevent (because many would be less economically active anyway, as your article notes).

 

[rb]

sanity introduced to this thread.  you're welcome. http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2020/03/maybe-its-not-pandemic-after-all.html

Yep, another Trump guy with his "This is like the flu take". Thank you!  ::)

[Casey]

sanity introduced to this thread.  you're welcome. http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2020/03/maybe-its-not-pandemic-after-all.html

 

LOL. The article:

 

Our house didn't get cold after my parents turned on the heat and closed the windows. Winter is way overblown! Open the beaches 8)

[cwericb]

“Yep, another Trump guy with his "This is like the flu take". Thank you!”

 

Yes I have noticed that several of the members of “The Trump Can Do No Wrong Cult” have jumped into this conversation to support Trump and his delusional ideas. This “flu” will be all over by Easter, etc, etc.

 

I don’t know if they really don’t understand how serious Covid-19 can get or if they have just drunk the Kool Aid to the extent they have become just as delusional as their cult leader. But it certainly is not helpful to under estimate the effects of this pandemic or to demean those taking realistic steps to stop its spread. And by the way, it is a “pandemic” despite what Mr. Grannis may believe.

 

I wonder what these people will say as the numbers increase?

[Cigarbutt]

sanity introduced to this thread.  you're welcome. http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2020/03/maybe-its-not-pandemic-after-all.html

1-From the link:

"What we really need right now is to recognize that this virus is not a pandemic or a mass killer. It's probably more like an unusually nasty flu. We need to lift the economic shutdown as soon as possible and get back to work. Trump is right."

 

2-From today on Bloomberg:

"Trump Says May Quarantine New York, New Jersey, Connecticut"

 

Are you suggesting that the considered quarantine measures are aimed at keeping insanity isolated?

[SnarkyPuppy]

sanity introduced to this thread.  you're welcome. http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2020/03/maybe-its-not-pandemic-after-all.html

 

You've lost your mind man.

[Viking]

Would this not have been the right thing to do in Washington State and New York City about 3 weeks ago? The cat is clearly out of the bag. Perhaps the situation in New York is worse than generally recognized. Or perhaps the federal response is running about 3 weeks behind what it should be?

 

Trump says he is considering coronavirus quarantine on New York, parts of New Jersey and Connecticut

- https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/03/28/coronavirus-latest-news/

[EliG]

Scott Grannis is not a MAGA-head but he is a well-known Trump supporter. How do his political views shape his analysis? Here's a clue...

 

What is beginning to make a real difference is the growing realization that the covid-19 virus is not nearly as deadly as the early projections suggested. That, and the rapidly growing list of therapeutics — led by chloroquine — and the accelerated development of vaccines and the fact that covid-19 test kits are on the verge of being distributed by the millions.

 

1. "The rapidly growing list of therapeutics" is a fantasy. A number of drugs have entered randomized control trials. The trials are ongoing. At the moment, we don't know if any of these drugs are effective.

 

2. Like Trump, Grannis is touting chloroquine despite scant evidence of its effectiveness.

 

 

Compare his take to what Surgeon-In-Chief at Columbia University wrote about chloroquine:

 

"The hysteria surrounding HC&A is almost entirely anecdotal, propped up by a handful of tiny, unconvincing trials."

 

See the last paragraph here

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUDxgClWAAAx06x?format=jpg&name=large

 

 

[RichardGibbons]

Yep, another Trump guy with his "This is like the flu take". Thank you!  ::)

 

Yeah, I think the people that have this view are basically misunderstanding five things:

[*]Exponential growth

[*]It takes weeks between infection and hospitalization and death

[*]Hospitals are not infinitely expandable--if enough people come in, hospitals run out of resources

[*]If you're in the ICU with this, you are likely in there for weeks

[*]That without ventilators, the death rate increases dramatically

Everyone I've seen who's taken a "there's no problem" position seems to have basically missed at least one of these points.  In that post, he's certainly completely misunderstanding points 1 and 2.  He'll probably miss points 3, 4, and 5, but hasn't got to that point yet, because he's so busy missing 1 and 2.

[Viking]

sanity introduced to this thread.  you're welcome. http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2020/03/maybe-its-not-pandemic-after-all.html

Yep, another Trump guy with his "This is like the flu take". Thank you!  ::)

 

Rip Van Winkles nephew? Been asleep for the past month and just woke up...

[Viking]

Yep, another Trump guy with his "This is like the flu take". Thank you!  ::)

 

Yeah, I think the people that have this view are basically misunderstanding five things:

[*]Exponential growth

[*]It takes weeks between infection and hospitalization and death

[*]Hospitals are not infinitely expandable--if enough people come in, hospitals run out of resources

[*]If you're in the ICU with this, you are likely in there for weeks

[*]That without ventilators, the death rate increases dramatically

Everyone I've seen who's taken a "there's no problem" position seems to have basically missed at least one of these points.  In that post, he's certainly completely misunderstanding points 1 and 2.  He'll probably miss points 3, 4, and 5, but hasn't got to that point yet, because he's so busy missing 1 and 2.

 

I think he needs to get off his couch and broaden his perspective and go work in a hospital in Washington State or New York City right now. My guess is he is after ‘view count’ and the article he wrote will be a best seller.

[clutch]

move this thread to Politics already...

[wachtwoord]

Yep, another Trump guy with his "This is like the flu take". Thank you!  ::)

 

Yeah, I think the people that have this view are basically misunderstanding five things:

[*]Exponential growth

[*]It takes weeks between infection and hospitalization and death

[*]Hospitals are not infinitely expandable--if enough people come in, hospitals run out of resources

[*]If you're in the ICU with this, you are likely in there for weeks

[*]That without ventilators, the death rate increases dramatically

Everyone I've seen who's taken a "there's no problem" position seems to have basically missed at least one of these points.  In that post, he's certainly completely misunderstanding points 1 and 2.  He'll probably miss points 3, 4, and 5, but hasn't got to that point yet, because he's so busy missing 1 and 2.

 

Well that really depends.I the grand scheme of things there isn't a real problem even with maximum death toll due to overextended hospitals. Countries will recover quite fast (<year) and in fact will be economically healthier with a lower proportion of the population in the higher age brackets.

 

There's only a problem in the ethical/sociological sense.

[Gregmal]

I spoke with a contact working at a 911 call center earlier. Typically they get a few hundred calls during peak hours. Lately they've been receiving in excess of 8,000 per day. Most of which are people with "flu like symptoms" wondering if they need to go to the hospital.

 

So yes, take it seriously, but this shit cuts both ways and all the hysteria certainly isn't doing us any favors if we are genuinely concerned about overloading our resource capacity. Its a shame this has to be political as well. A living Democrat/Republican/Independent is almost always better than a dead one. Awareness is the biggest thing here, but once again, scaring the shit out of everyone will also just make matters worse. Similar to why they probably, incorrectly, told everyone masks dont work. If they said that they did, no one would have them, period.