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spartansaver

By spartansaver
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Spekulatius Grand Master

Spekulatius

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https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/andrew-cuomo-economy-reopen-coronavirus

 

Who would have thought? Perhaps conspiracy theorists? Despite repeated cries from Fuuci about the worst being ahead of us....Cuomo is now looking to open NYC...does anyone know what changed in the past couple months?

 

In related news, Chicago has also decided to suddenly re-open schools. Bizarre.

 

There is a lot of evidence that opening the schools with precautions and social distancing protocols don’t cause much virus transmission.

Cigarbutt Community Regular

Cigarbutt

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^NY and IL have entered the vicinity of functional herd immunity with vaccines coming. In NYC, positivity rates have levelled and are recently trending down (but still high). IL and the Chicago area had a huge second wave that peaked in late November and early December and all numbers (cases, positivity, hospitalizations and deaths) are significantly trending down.

 

In my jurisdiction (CDN province), it appears that only a small minority (less than 1-3%?) of vaccines are given to people not belonging to pre-defined priority groups.

 

In my jurisdiction (like elsewhere including the US), there is a clear movement to move away from the pre-defined two-doses regimen in order to postpone the second dose with the goal to reach an optimal number of people with the first dose. This outcome has been the result of constructive discussions between people sitting in offices and people on the ground with some kind of expertise. There is some uneasiness with this adapted strategy because the vaccine studies were devised with a fixed schedule. However, at the group level, this is likely to help reach herd immunity faster. Looking at the groups at risk in the next few weeks (similar to a threshold analysis in a bankruptcy according to priority rules), the sub-groups most likely to benefit will be the 60-69 and 70-79 living in the community. These two groups compose lower proportions of people reaching hospitals, ICUs and the morgue but numbers are still significant and this group is clearly at risk for quality-life years lost. At the individual level, postponing the second dose has positive and negative aspects. The negative aspects include that this adapted protocol was not studied and means that there will be less protection in between doses. The positive aspects include that efficacy reaches about 90% with the first dose at day 14 to 15 with the mRNA vaccines, immunity has been shown not to decline significantly for a few months and, from previous vaccine knowledge, a delayed second dose may very well result in a stronger 'boost' (longer lasting immunity).

Viking Veteran

Viking

Posted
Posted

Here is an update on J&J. We need a few more manufacturers to be successful/approved.

 

Johnson & Johnson confident of March rollout for its COVID-19 vaccine, still aims for 1 billion doses in 2021

- https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/international-business/us-business/article-johnson-johnson-confident-of-march-rollout-for-its-covid-19-vaccine/

 

Johnson & Johnson is on track to roll out its single-shot coronavirus vaccine in March, and plans to have clear data on how effective it is by the end of this month or early February, the U.S. healthcare company’s chief science officer said.

 

Dr. Paul Stoffels in an interview on Tuesday also said J&J expects to meet its stated target of delivering 1 billion doses of its vaccine by the end of this year as the company ramps up production.

 

The New York Times reported earlier on Wednesday that J&J was experiencing manufacturing delays that would reduce the number of doses initially available. Stoffels declined to say how many doses would be ready to go into people’s arms in March, presuming it receives emergency authorization from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.

 

“We are aiming for 1 billion doses in 2021. If it is a single dose, that means 1 billion people. But it will be in a ramp-up throughout the year,” Stoffels said.

orthopa Explorer

orthopa

Posted
Posted

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/andrew-cuomo-economy-reopen-coronavirus

 

Who would have thought? Perhaps conspiracy theorists? Despite repeated cries from Fuuci about the worst being ahead of us....Cuomo is now looking to open NYC...does anyone know what changed in the past couple months?

 

In related news, Chicago has also decided to suddenly re-open schools. Bizarre.

 

I think its 100% a coincidence that Cuomo wants to open up now a week before Biden is inaugurated. 6 weeks ago there were signs flashing all over the I-90 to be smart and not get together with family because of an apocalypse that would ensue. 6 weeks later......Time to open up.  Makes perfect sense if you think about it really, really, really hard lol.

Gregmal Grand Master

Gregmal

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The reality is that they need to kickstart the rebound so Biden can not only get credit for curing covid and cancer, but also saving the economy. Especially those of deep blue states. Notice how the news outlets are already declaring it "Biden's $2,000 stimulus checks"? Odd, because unless I am mistaken, one guy called for $2,000 checks, and it wasnt Joe, it wasnt Nancy, and it definitely wasnt Mitch.

StubbleJumper Proficient

StubbleJumper

Posted
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https://www.cbsnews.com/news/california-coronavirus-deaths-30000-deadliest-weekend/

California sees 10,000 coronavirus deaths in just one month after record surge

"Happy states are all alike; every unhappy state is unhappy in its own way" (slightly modified Anna Karenina principle)

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

 

 

It's amazing how quickly things change with covid.  The state that was ridiculed in this forum 6 weeks ago, South Dakota, has already vaccinated nearly 6 percent of its population.  If you believe that the over-65 year-old sub-group is the principal threat to the integrity of health service delivery, South Dakota is roughly one-third of the way to getting that high risk group vaccinated and have a real prospect of easing pressure on their hospitals.  Other states are very much lagging behind.  If you would have asked me in November which states would be leading in the vaccination process and which would be lagging, I don't think that I would have guessed that the Dakotas would be among the best.

 

 

SJ

Cigarbutt Community Regular

Cigarbutt

Posted
Posted

...

It's amazing how quickly things change with covid.  The state that was ridiculed in this forum 6 weeks ago, South Dakota, has already vaccinated nearly 6 percent of its population.  If you believe that the over-65 year-old sub-group is the principal threat to the integrity of health service delivery, South Dakota is roughly one-third of the way to getting that high risk group vaccinated and have a real prospect of easing pressure on their hospitals.  Other states are very much lagging behind.  If you would have asked me in November which states would be leading in the vaccination process and which would be lagging, I don't think that I would have guessed that the Dakotas would be among the best.

SJ

Let's forget about sunk costs (argumentative and otherwise?). How can we learn from the Dakotas? It seems they are focusing on healthcare workers first, with a slight adaptation from the 'national' guidelines. One could argue for or against that modification but it appears that frontline workers have been going through a rough (mostly bipartisan) patch (especially in the Dakotas). i see that the protocol in North Dakota includes to vaccinate people who, themselves, vaccinate others (again another area to argue).

i assume you are from Ontario. As you know the neighboring other-solitude province has been reporting terribly high numbers (cases, hospital capacity, deaths etc). Well, despite this previously sunken past, it looks like the vaccine rollout is evolving relatively well:

https://covid19tracker.ca/vaccinationtracker.html

Word has it (as of 2 days ago) that, in my province, 50% of elderly people living in the most at-risk homes (the "CHSLDs") have received their first doses as well as 25% of relevant frontline healthcare personnel. (irrelevant addition: i'm periodically giving a lending hand to push the plunger but will wait my turn according to national guidelines)

mattee2264 Rising Star

mattee2264

Posted
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Yeah it seems pretty obvious you do the healthcare workers first, then the people in managed care facilities (you can just roll up with a ton of vaccines and knock them all out in a day) and then move on to outreach to knock off the age demographics. If you do it by age then you avoid most of the prioritization issues and you can make it first come first served.

Pauly Apprentice

Pauly

Posted
Posted

Four days? I don't think I'd eat my cat after four days, I like her too much.

 

Where did this anecdote come from?

 

massive lockdowns in China. One guy just eat his pet because he wasn't allowed to go out to get food for four days.

Jurgis Apprentice

Jurgis

Posted
Posted

Four days? I don't think I'd eat my cat after four days, I like her too much.

 

Where did this anecdote come from?

 

massive lockdowns in China. One guy just eat his pet because he wasn't allowed to go out to get food for four days.

 

It wasn't four days.

And the guy's name was Jack Ma.

 

::)

mattee2264 Rising Star

mattee2264

Posted
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Annoying thing about China is their official data makes it impossible to tell whether this is just an extreme pre-emptive measure to a handful of cases and it will be contained in a matter of weeks or whether despite their propoganda they are going to suffer the same third wave as everywhere else and face months of restrictions until vaccines kick in.

 

 

 

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