Pauly Posted June 9, 2020 Posted June 9, 2020 Trump has a point (imo) pointing out the protests On one hand and the resistance to allowing campaign rallies on the other : https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/trump-to-resume-campaign-rallies-this-month-as-states-loosen-coronavirus-limits.html However, the protesters skewed young and mostly wear masks and the protests were outdoors, while Campaign rallies would be indoors and the audience as well as the headliners (including himself) skew older. Will they wear masks? This will be an interesting experiment. For the mask question I would put my money on 'No'. The best way to encourage these rallies to be safe would be to ask the President if he really wants to kill off a good number of his guaranteed votes.
Spekulatius Posted June 9, 2020 Posted June 9, 2020 Anyone noticed that trends in a lot of states are ticking up. AL, AR, AZ, CO, CA, TX, FL and others. Some of it can be explained by the number of tests going up, but when number of tests go up and % of positives go up and hospitalization rates, it most likely a real trend. We will see how much of a trend this becomes - I guess it is expected when opening up the economy. The NE states still show downward trends, but of course we haven’t opened much yet. AZ not looking good at all. While the higher number of positive cases can be explained by higher testing numbers either, the higher % positive definitely points into the wrong direction, as does in the increasing number of hospitalizations. The number of death is still small. TX and a few other states in that neck of woods show similar trends.
Liberty Posted June 10, 2020 Posted June 10, 2020 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-masks-study-idUSKBN23G37V
Spekulatius Posted June 10, 2020 Posted June 10, 2020 Anyone noticed that trends in a lot of states are ticking up. AL, AR, AZ, CO, CA, TX, FL and others. Some of it can be explained by the number of tests going up, but when number of tests go up and % of positives go up and hospitalization rates, it most likely a real trend. We will see how much of a trend this becomes - I guess it is expected when opening up the economy. The NE states still show downward trends, but of course we haven’t opened much yet. AZ not looking good at all. While the higher number of positive cases can be explained by higher testing numbers either, the higher % positive definitely points into the wrong direction, as does in the increasing number of hospitalizations. The number of death is still small. TX and a few other states in that neck of woods show similar trends. That didn’t take long: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-arizona/arizona-calls-for-emergency-plan-as-covid-19-spikes-after-reopening-idUSKBN23H03K
LongHaul Posted June 11, 2020 Posted June 11, 2020 I am in the Houston area where cases are up here and in Texas (see link) and my sense is that: 1. People are taking more risk as the see others they know going out, etc. (Social proof, overconfidence) 2. On the plus side a lot of people are wearing masks. 3. But - Houston is hot and humid - so cases are up even with higher temperatures, more sun and high humidity https://www.houstonchronicle.com/coronavirus/article/covid-interactive-map-houston-texas-us-case-virus-15142609.php I personally think that Covid 19 goes way up in many parts of the US - especially when it cools down. The secondary effect of people going out and taking more chances is that many more people could get Covid-19 and it is not a zero chance that it gets so bad the hospital beds become full. When people see that on the news then they will get REALLY scared again. That would really tank the economy again. Hard to predict though. The more confident people are the more dangerous the virus danger is.
Spekulatius Posted June 11, 2020 Posted June 11, 2020 I am in the Houston area where cases are up here and in Texas (see link) and my sense is that: 1. People are taking more risk as the see others they know going out, etc. (Social proof, overconfidence) 2. On the plus side a lot of people are wearing masks. 3. But - Houston is hot and humid - so cases are up even with higher temperatures, more sun and high humidity https://www.houstonchronicle.com/coronavirus/article/covid-interactive-map-houston-texas-us-case-virus-15142609.php I personally think that Covid 19 goes way up in many parts of the US - especially when it cools down. The secondary effect of people going out and taking more chances is that many more people could get Covid-19 and it is not a zero chance that it gets so bad the hospital beds become full. When people see that on the news then they will get REALLY scared again. That would really tank the economy again. Hard to predict though. The more confident people are the more dangerous the virus danger is. I wrote this before, but when people see other people doing “risky” things, they intuitively think it is safe (social proof food concept). Ironically it is just the opposite - going to an empty restaurant is way less risky than going to a full one for example. I am not sure how much of a cofactor colder weather is. People are mostly indoors and most infections occur indoors as well. it might increase the susceptibility of the respiratory system but then on the other hand, the epidemic has been raging pretty well in warmer climates as well (Italy, Spain, Brazil etc).
cwericb Posted June 11, 2020 Posted June 11, 2020 "I am not sure how much of a cofactor colder weather is. People are mostly indoors and most infections occur indoors as well. it might increase the susceptibility of the respiratory system but then on the other hand, the epidemic has been raging pretty well in warmer climates as well (Italy, Spain, Brazil etc)." Well if the flu is any indicator, look what happens late fall, early winter. Will this spread like the flu?
ERICOPOLY Posted June 11, 2020 Posted June 11, 2020 Regarding Winter, Doesn't indoor heating create low relative humidity and therefore longer virus particle suspension times?
Spekulatius Posted June 11, 2020 Posted June 11, 2020 Regarding Winter, Doesn't indoor heating create low relative humidity and therefore longer virus particle suspension times? Yes, good point. Dry air dries out the sinuses /mucus which is the body’s defense mechanism against respiratory viruses. We know already that workers meat processing planets tend to get COVID -19 partly because standing I cold and dry air for long periods of time makes them more susceptible. So a pickup in virus activity in winter is very likely.
samwise Posted June 11, 2020 Posted June 11, 2020 https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-should-we-aim-for-herd-immunity-like-sweden-b1de3348e88b "Coronavirus: Should We Aim for Herd Immunity Like Sweden? And What Can Countries like the US or Netherlands Learn from It?" By Tomas Pueyo, from "The Hammer and the Dance" and other smart writings about COVID. Thanks for sharing. He is very optimistic that the dance can be maintained at low cost indefinitely, until vaccines are available. If true, doesn’t this support the general market level now? The economy may function almost ok, barring some mass entertainment events which need >50/100 people together. Do you share such an optimistic view? Let’s say California and North east manage the dance, and the mid west, Texas, Arizona fail and need another hammer lockdown. How big an impact is that to the US economy?
Spekulatius Posted June 11, 2020 Posted June 11, 2020 https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-should-we-aim-for-herd-immunity-like-sweden-b1de3348e88b "Coronavirus: Should We Aim for Herd Immunity Like Sweden? And What Can Countries like the US or Netherlands Learn from It?" By Tomas Pueyo, from "The Hammer and the Dance" and other smart writings about COVID. Thanks for sharing. He is very optimistic that the dance can be maintained at low cost indefinitely, until vaccines are available. If true, doesn’t this support the general market level now? The economy may function almost ok, barring some mass entertainment events which need >50/100 people together. Do you share such an optimistic view? Let’s say California and North east manage the dance, and the mid west, Texas, Arizona fail and need another hammer lockdown. How big an impact is that to the US economy? I just went thought the article and I think it is pretty good. It matches the info I could gather from various sources. The problem with the herd immunity is that it takes a long time, as the Swedes found out and in the case of the US, the current IFR numbers suggest it would cost a lot of lives. We have had 120k death so far caused by the disease and with herd immunity it could be 10x as much. A lot of European countries have already case numbers so low they they can open up and have schools up and running for example. So essentially, they are already ahead of the US in how the economy can operate. This is due to the more effective and stronger shutdown measures. As far as the impact of several states like Texas, AZ, AL and other having high infection rates for a long time and what it means for the economy it’s really hard to tell. Maybe the population in states themselves ignores this and carries on. However, what about travel into and from these states? It’s free movement generally, but will people from COVID-19 free states will want to travel into these states? It will cause some issues for sure. I think we will have to see how this works. I am sure that real virus containment in the US isn’t really an option any more.
mcliu Posted June 11, 2020 Posted June 11, 2020 After a multi-trillion dollar global lockdown, turns out masks could have solved the problem. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-masks-study/widespread-mask-wearing-could-prevent-covid-19-second-waves-study-idUSKBN23G37V
Investor20 Posted June 11, 2020 Posted June 11, 2020 https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-should-we-aim-for-herd-immunity-like-sweden-b1de3348e88b "Coronavirus: Should We Aim for Herd Immunity Like Sweden? And What Can Countries like the US or Netherlands Learn from It?" By Tomas Pueyo, from "The Hammer and the Dance" and other smart writings about COVID. Thanks for sharing. He is very optimistic that the dance can be maintained at low cost indefinitely, until vaccines are available. If true, doesn’t this support the general market level now? The economy may function almost ok, barring some mass entertainment events which need >50/100 people together. Do you share such an optimistic view? Let’s say California and North east manage the dance, and the mid west, Texas, Arizona fail and need another hammer lockdown. How big an impact is that to the US economy? I just went thought the article and I think it is pretty good. It matches the info I could gather from various sources. The problem with the herd immunity is that it takes a long time, as the Swedes found out and in the case of the US, the current IFR numbers suggest it would cost a lot of lives. We have had 120k death so far caused by the disease and with herd immunity it could be 10x as much. A lot of European countries have already case numbers so low they they can open up and have schools up and running for example. So essentially, they are already ahead of the US in how the economy can operate. This is due to the more effective and stronger shutdown measures. As far as the impact of several states like Texas, AZ, AL and other having high infection rates for a long time and what it means for the economy it’s really hard to tell. Maybe the population in states themselves ignores this and carries on. However, what about travel into and from these states? It’s free movement generally, but will people from COVID-19 free states will want to travel into these states? It will cause some issues for sure. I think we will have to see how this works. I am sure that real virus containment in the US isn’t really an option any more. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/no-new-coronavirus-cases-found-in-japan/1870548 No new coronavirus cases found in Japan Japan did not have mandatory lockdowns. Yet they went to zero. The other day Spekulatius was arguing about protests and saying because protestors wear masks so it should be ok. So.....why then stronger shutdown measures are needed? Wear a mask and you can do anything, per Spekulatius logic.
clutch Posted June 11, 2020 Posted June 11, 2020 Excusing protesters because they wear masks while gathering in masses: "All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others." And I have seen the protesters first hand in Toronto, and no, not everyone wears a mask and they often pull them down especially when they talk.
Spekulatius Posted June 11, 2020 Posted June 11, 2020 https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-should-we-aim-for-herd-immunity-like-sweden-b1de3348e88b "Coronavirus: Should We Aim for Herd Immunity Like Sweden? And What Can Countries like the US or Netherlands Learn from It?" By Tomas Pueyo, from "The Hammer and the Dance" and other smart writings about COVID. Thanks for sharing. He is very optimistic that the dance can be maintained at low cost indefinitely, until vaccines are available. If true, doesn’t this support the general market level now? The economy may function almost ok, barring some mass entertainment events which need >50/100 people together. Do you share such an optimistic view? Let’s say California and North east manage the dance, and the mid west, Texas, Arizona fail and need another hammer lockdown. How big an impact is that to the US economy? I just went thought the article and I think it is pretty good. It matches the info I could gather from various sources. The problem with the herd immunity is that it takes a long time, as the Swedes found out and in the case of the US, the current IFR numbers suggest it would cost a lot of lives. We have had 120k death so far caused by the disease and with herd immunity it could be 10x as much. A lot of European countries have already case numbers so low they they can open up and have schools up and running for example. So essentially, they are already ahead of the US in how the economy can operate. This is due to the more effective and stronger shutdown measures. As far as the impact of several states like Texas, AZ, AL and other having high infection rates for a long time and what it means for the economy it’s really hard to tell. Maybe the population in states themselves ignores this and carries on. However, what about travel into and from these states? It’s free movement generally, but will people from COVID-19 free states will want to travel into these states? It will cause some issues for sure. I think we will have to see how this works. I am sure that real virus containment in the US isn’t really an option any more. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/no-new-coronavirus-cases-found-in-japan/1870548 No new coronavirus cases found in Japan Japan did not have mandatory lockdowns. Yet they went to zero. The other day Spekulatius was arguing about protests and saying because protestors wear masks so it should be ok. So.....why then stronger shutdown measures are needed? Wear a mask and you can do anything, per Spekulatius logic. I never said the protest are Ok. I did state there are 3 factors that mitigate infections - mask wearing ( mostly) , younger crowd and protest being outdoors. Japan did have shutdowns. The larger cities ( Tokyo) were shutdown fairly early. The did not have a countrywide shutdown however.
Investor20 Posted June 11, 2020 Posted June 11, 2020 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2020388#article_references Hydroxychloroquine for the Prevention of Covid-19 — Searching for Evidence I was going through the article and they dont mention India's ICMR or Korean studies on use of HCQ for prophylaxis but only Boulware. Boulware administered the drug only for four days, while Korean study gave drug for full quarantine period of 14 days. ICMR gives once a week and found it is effective only after 4 weeks of administration. Also Boulware confirmed infection "by polymerase-chain-reaction assay in less than 3% of the participants. " They determined if someone is infected by email or phone by self diagnosis (I am not kidding....check it yourself). Can anyone here tell me there are more Covid infected in LA or NYC by talking to a few people over phone? But that is the only study they can write an article about HCQ in NEJM? Why so called "scientists" and top notch medical journals do this? See Below References on HCQ use for prophylaxis that NEJM apparently cannot find where below studies used PCR testing, not self diagnosis by phone & email. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7162746/ Can post-exposure prophylaxis for COVID-19 be considered as an outbreak response strategy in long-term care hospitals? Many patients would be expected to become infected with COVID-19 in the setting of cluster outbreaks associated with LTCHs. In this study, there were no additional confirmed cases among exposed patients and caregivers; however, it is not clear whether PEP was effective because there was no control group. https://indianexpress.com/article/india/preventive-use-of-hcq-in-frontline-healthcare-workers-icmr-study-6442948/ A new study by the Indian Council of Medical research (ICMR), which examined the prophylactic role of Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) to prevent SARS-nCOV2, found that the risk of healthcare workers (HCWs) contracting the infection was much lower if a sustained dose was taken along with use of personal protective equipment (PPE). .... “However, with the intake of four or more maintenance doses of HCQ, the protective effect started emerging,” Dr Samiran Panda, director of ICMR- National AIDS Research Institute (NARI) and one of the study authors, told The Indian Express. “A significant reduction (more than 80%) in the odds of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the HCWs was identified with the intake of six or more doses of HCQ prophylaxis,” Dr Panda added.
Investor20 Posted June 11, 2020 Posted June 11, 2020 https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-should-we-aim-for-herd-immunity-like-sweden-b1de3348e88b "Coronavirus: Should We Aim for Herd Immunity Like Sweden? And What Can Countries like the US or Netherlands Learn from It?" By Tomas Pueyo, from "The Hammer and the Dance" and other smart writings about COVID. Thanks for sharing. He is very optimistic that the dance can be maintained at low cost indefinitely, until vaccines are available. If true, doesn’t this support the general market level now? The economy may function almost ok, barring some mass entertainment events which need >50/100 people together. Do you share such an optimistic view? Let’s say California and North east manage the dance, and the mid west, Texas, Arizona fail and need another hammer lockdown. How big an impact is that to the US economy? I just went thought the article and I think it is pretty good. It matches the info I could gather from various sources. The problem with the herd immunity is that it takes a long time, as the Swedes found out and in the case of the US, the current IFR numbers suggest it would cost a lot of lives. We have had 120k death so far caused by the disease and with herd immunity it could be 10x as much. A lot of European countries have already case numbers so low they they can open up and have schools up and running for example. So essentially, they are already ahead of the US in how the economy can operate. This is due to the more effective and stronger shutdown measures. As far as the impact of several states like Texas, AZ, AL and other having high infection rates for a long time and what it means for the economy it’s really hard to tell. Maybe the population in states themselves ignores this and carries on. However, what about travel into and from these states? It’s free movement generally, but will people from COVID-19 free states will want to travel into these states? It will cause some issues for sure. I think we will have to see how this works. I am sure that real virus containment in the US isn’t really an option any more. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/no-new-coronavirus-cases-found-in-japan/1870548 No new coronavirus cases found in Japan Japan did not have mandatory lockdowns. Yet they went to zero. The other day Spekulatius was arguing about protests and saying because protestors wear masks so it should be ok. So.....why then stronger shutdown measures are needed? Wear a mask and you can do anything, per Spekulatius logic. I never said the protest are Ok. I did state there are 3 factors that mitigate infections - mask wearing ( mostly) , younger crowd and protest being outdoors. Japan did have shutdowns. The larger cities ( Tokyo) were shutdown fairly early. The did not have a countrywide shutdown however. Then stick to that. We dont need "strong shut down measures" in US if all we need according to you is people who are not vulnerable to wear masks and be outside or atleast avoid closed environments. Japan did not have mandatory shutdowns. Hear from the horses mouth, PM Abe himself on this PM's Office of Japan', @JPN_PMO, Apr 7 #COVID19 update (PM Abe’s remarks on April 6): “Allow me to make it clear once again. In Japan, even if we issue the declaration of a state of emergency, we will not enforce the lockdowns of cities as seen abroad. It is the view of the experts that that would not be necessary.
Jurgis Posted June 11, 2020 Posted June 11, 2020 US is so fucked Covid-great! https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/as-coronavirus-cases-rise-nationwide-public-health-experts-urge-caution/2020/06/10/1617dee4-ab36-11ea-a9d9-a81c1a491c52_story.html
mcliu Posted June 11, 2020 Posted June 11, 2020 Looks like US is going for herd immunity. People won't stay home anymore when they see large protests like this. It'll suck for healthcare workers, but US will get to herd immunity faster.
StubbleJumper Posted June 11, 2020 Posted June 11, 2020 Looks like US is going for herd immunity. People won't stay home anymore when they see large protests like this. It'll suck for healthcare workers, but US will get to herd immunity faster. Yes, the US appears to be advancing quickly along path to herd immunity (if such a thing actually exists). The US currently has 2 million officially diagnosed cases, and if the current pace of adding ~15k/day continues through the summer, there will be ~3 million official cases by August 31. Serology tests suggest that the number of people carrying antibodies is 10-for-1 or 15-for-1 compared to the number of official cases. If this is true on a large scale, there might be 30+ million with antibodies today, and possibly 45 million on August 31. If we think herd immunity kicks in when ~60% or ~200 million people have already had covid, 45 million is significant. The larger scale seroprevalence studies will be very interesting as the summer progresses. SJ
Investor20 Posted June 11, 2020 Posted June 11, 2020 Now, the Harvard researcher who co-authored two articles on its research says he never saw the data and can’t verify its existence. https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-big-data-mystery-behind-retracted-covid-19-studies-of-hydroxychloroquine-other-drugs-11591867981 Its a subscription article, but this statement is sufficient to see the quality of "research" is so poor.
Peregrine Posted June 11, 2020 Posted June 11, 2020 The interesting case is New York City. Despite widespread protests beginning about two weeks ago, COVID positivity rate and new hospitalizations continue to come down day after day. This may indicate that a place like NYC has already reached a level of herd immunity and that you don't need to see immunity get anywhere near the 70% level that everyone says is needed to see the R0 fall below 1. FYI, antibody testing in NYC suggests 20-25% infection rate - so maybe that's even enough.
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