cobafdek Posted May 6, 2020 Posted May 6, 2020 I'm not delusional on why Trump won and why he has a fair shot of winning again. I fully understand why his followers will follow him off a cliff. He is quite talented at what he does. Funny that you left out the first part of Taleb's tweet: Resist The Wuhan Lab & other theories So basically, the conspiracy theories being peddled by Trump and eaten up by his followers. LOL. ;D How convenient, but not surprised that a Trump supporter would try to mislead by distorting the truth. You never asked me about the Wuhan lab theory. For the record, I don't believe it. The plain meaning of Taleb's tweet is clear: when he says "IYIs on Trump," he's talking about you.
samwise Posted May 6, 2020 Posted May 6, 2020 I think it would be bad short term but the Great Depression built people of character. The downside of those big events is war though. I wouldn't want that part. I would imagine the corrupt would lose their power since the system that gives them their power would be dead. The great depression lead to communists and fascists and dictators taking over a large part of the world. But yeah, it built character ??? I do think you're right in a lot of regards. I was specifically thinking about America but I agree the net might be negative across the world. There could have been a fair amount of luck involved that we didn't end up that way. There was a recent study linking Spanish Flu deaths with voting for Hitler in Germany. Strong correlation which the researchers couldn't explain using alternative factors the researchers looked at. I wouldn't have expected it, but it sort of backs Liberty's point.
Dalal.Holdings Posted May 6, 2020 Posted May 6, 2020 I'm not delusional on why Trump won and why he has a fair shot of winning again. I fully understand why his followers will follow him off a cliff. He is quite talented at what he does. Funny that you left out the first part of Taleb's tweet: Resist The Wuhan Lab & other theories So basically, the conspiracy theories being peddled by Trump and eaten up by his followers. LOL. ;D How convenient, but not surprised that a Trump supporter would try to mislead by distorting the truth. You never asked me about the Wuhan lab theory. For the record, I don't believe it. The plain meaning of Taleb's tweet is clear: when he says "IYIs on Trump," he's talking about you. Nah, he's talking about people who underestimated him, but I'm not going to pretend to speak for him. I'll let you (try to) do that. Again, also conveniently leaving out Taleb's criticism of Trump's Wuhan conspiracy. Edit: Darn, broke my rule about not responding to nonsense dwellers.
Viking Posted May 6, 2020 Posted May 6, 2020 My concern is that Ottawa is really not going to save the resources sector in WCSB the way a resource economy should for the long term. So much talent is leaving the industry. Idea of capital preservation is absolutely the right way to go about it. Ottawa seems to want the oil/resource sector to shrink. i am just not sure where the growth is going to come from (to replace all we are losing). Especially when you look at all the $ the oil industry has been sending to Ottawa for decades (via equalization payments) which has gone to the less well off regions. Given how equalization payments are calculated there is a multiyear lag (I think) so the money will be drying up right when federal deficits are exploding. There is an obvious answer to who is going to pay for everything in the coming years: consumers and businesses via much, much higher taxes. One big difference with Canada and US is Canada has historically high consumer debt and not terrible federal debt; US is the opposite. So I see a scenario where Canada spends at the Federal level a massive amount in the coming years because they can. It will help in the short term and likely bite in the medium term.
RichardGibbons Posted May 6, 2020 Posted May 6, 2020 When I first saw 'TDS' in usage, I honestly believed it was referring to the blind followers of a man who tells them to turn off the news because you get the truth directly from him on Twitter. LOL, yeah, me too. I still think it's a pretty accurate description.
cobafdek Posted May 7, 2020 Posted May 7, 2020 Edit: Darn, broke my rule about not responding to nonsense dwellers. Finally, we agree. You should stop posting here. Or at least you need to be more careful what you post. Orthopa earlier outed you as a fake MD. Now you're outed as a fake Taleb reader. Nah, he's talking about people who underestimated him, but I'm not going to pretend to speak for him. Taleb: "Everything after the 'but' contradicts what came before." Sunk cost fallacy! Trump bag holders... Taleb says the sunk cost fallacy isn't really a fallacy:
LC Posted May 7, 2020 Posted May 7, 2020 No, Taleb is being cheeky in an attempt to appear smart on twitter. If you don't assume what is called a Markov process, then you are left in a much worse (and less sensible) place.
LC Posted May 7, 2020 Posted May 7, 2020 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/us/politics/rick-bright-coronavirus-whistleblower.html We are a well functioning democracy. We are a well functioning democracy. :-X :-X :-X
Dalal.Holdings Posted May 7, 2020 Posted May 7, 2020 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/us/politics/rick-bright-coronavirus-whistleblower.html We are a well functioning democracy. We are a well functioning democracy. :-X :-X :-X Questionable contracts have gone to “companies with political connections to the administration,” the complaint said, including a drug company tied to a friend of Jared Kushner’s, President Trump’s son-in-law and senior adviser. It said Dr. Bright was retaliated against by his superiors, who pushed him out because of “his efforts to prioritize science and safety over political expediency.” Did we drain the swamp yet? His hacienda indeed. And his zombie followers fall for it (thinking he's looking out for the 'little guy') every single time. Now prepare to watch this whistleblower's name dragged through the mud by the zombies willing to do their master's bidding.
cobafdek Posted May 7, 2020 Posted May 7, 2020 Another IYI not keeping up! No, Taleb is being cheeky in an attempt to appear smart on twitter. If you don't assume what is called a Markov process, then you are left in a much worse (and less sensible) place. Written like a true bot! Only bots live in Markov processes. The rest of us are in the real world. The real world is non-ergodic. In a non-ergodic world, the so-called "fallacies" and "biases" of behavioral economics are not necessarily irrational.
Castanza Posted May 7, 2020 Posted May 7, 2020 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/us/politics/rick-bright-coronavirus-whistleblower.html We are a well functioning democracy. We are a well functioning democracy. :-X :-X :-X Questionable contracts have gone to “companies with political connections to the administration,” the complaint said, including a drug company tied to a friend of Jared Kushner’s, President Trump’s son-in-law and senior adviser. It said Dr. Bright was retaliated against by his superiors, who pushed him out because of “his efforts to prioritize science and safety over political expediency.” Did we drain the swamp yet? His hacienda indeed. And his zombie followers fall for it (thinking he's looking out for the 'little guy') every single time. Now prepare to watch this whistleblower's name dragged through the mud by the zombies willing to do their master's bidding. You’re voting Biden right? ;D
Dalal.Holdings Posted May 7, 2020 Posted May 7, 2020 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/us/politics/rick-bright-coronavirus-whistleblower.html We are a well functioning democracy. We are a well functioning democracy. :-X :-X :-X Questionable contracts have gone to “companies with political connections to the administration,” the complaint said, including a drug company tied to a friend of Jared Kushner’s, President Trump’s son-in-law and senior adviser. It said Dr. Bright was retaliated against by his superiors, who pushed him out because of “his efforts to prioritize science and safety over political expediency.” Did we drain the swamp yet? His hacienda indeed. And his zombie followers fall for it (thinking he's looking out for the 'little guy') every single time. Now prepare to watch this whistleblower's name dragged through the mud by the zombies willing to do their master's bidding. You’re voting Biden right? ;D Yeah. If he makes Hunter in charge of doling out vents/PPE when 70k Americans are dead, you can come back and gloat. Till then, you got nothing valuable (other than extreme levels of false equivalence fallacy) to add to this topic.
Dalal.Holdings Posted May 7, 2020 Posted May 7, 2020 Another IYI not keeping up! So this guy who goes around calling other forum members idiots is adding what value here?
clutch Posted May 7, 2020 Posted May 7, 2020 Don't look elsewhere guys, this is the swamp right here.
Castanza Posted May 7, 2020 Posted May 7, 2020 https://www.wtae.com/article/upmc-chief-medical-officer-what-we-cannot-do-is-extended-social-isolation/32393261 Head of UPMC in PA - 110 of 5500 beds occupied by covid patients - Average age of covid death in PA is 84 - 65% of covid patients in PA come from nursing home facilities.
ERICOPOLY Posted May 7, 2020 Posted May 7, 2020 Another IYI not keeping up! So this guy who goes around calling other forum members idiots is adding what value here? Line caught tuna commands a higher market value. So yes, trolling adds value.
ERICOPOLY Posted May 7, 2020 Posted May 7, 2020 Another IYI not keeping up! So this guy who goes around calling other forum members idiots is adding what value here? You just have to remember what it's like being 5 years old. The name calling all makes sense then.
Liberty Posted May 7, 2020 Posted May 7, 2020 Good thread by Andy Slavitt: COVID Update May 6: Like many countries we picked a strategy to beat COVID-19. We just decided not to stick to it “It’s a long and difficult road & after we climbed halfway we decided it was too hard and decided to roll back down the Hill.” 2/ #StayHome was a first step to flatten the curve. We reduced the infection rate likely from a number between 2 and 3 to closer to 1. Given exponential math & limited supplies & resources, this likely saved 10s if not 100s of thousands of lives But we only flattened the curve, we didn’t crush it. (And the virus is still there.) And we only flattened on average. In most places, the virus is still growing That thinking boils down to: it’s too hard. We’ve got to open up the economy because it’s too hard to get enough testing & contact tracing to make people feel safe.6/ There are is a major fallacy here. There is no plan by Chris Christie or otherwise to bring the economy back without addressing our public health crisis. The reason is he can’t. Without a credible plan to address the public health crisis, tell me how consumers start buying cars, small businesses sign leases & employers start hiring? They don’t say. They just complain about the “other” position.10/ This may build into a big food fight to preoccupy & entertain us with something besides dealing with the actual virus There is, however, a plan to slowly steadily bring the economy back, but by solving the public health crisis. It was put forward by...the Trump White House all of 3 weeks ago. It had gates & stages & hinged conditions on the ground. But none of them have been met Rather than wait, Trump grew impatient. He wants life to go back to the way it was before the pandemic. He wants the economy growing. I don’t know how to explain it to him but let me try.13/ This is not easy. But it’s not impossible either. Other countries are managing keep people safe & open their economies. (If you think this is because of country size or testing see the 2 tweets that follow) Let’s take a look. *Hong Kong— oh, but they’re an island. Yes. So is Manhattan. Contagion on a dense island can be a disaster. *New Zealand— oh, but they’re remote. Well they had a color coded warning system like we announced. But they stuck with it.18 *Korea— oh but they’re too authoritarian. Actually no. Everything was opt-in/optional. *Germany— yeah, but she’s a scientist. And where did they get all those tests. *Greece— we could never show that discipline! *Czech Republic— but they have to wear these arcane masks!19/ Point is— this can be done. Not perfectly. Not without loss of life. Not with a perfect economy but with testing & tracing & masks, it’s a strategy if you can stick to it. 20/ We had a strategy. Trump gave it a few weeks & then decided “liberate!” Basically, he’s a quitter.22/ One thing is clear. Our government has a higher tolerance for unnecessary deaths than other countries. School shootings, shootings in church, at concerts, in night clubs. People in nursing homes. Meat plants. Prisons. 25/ As @davidfrum told me, it’s impossible to get an A in managing a pandemic. There are no silver bullets. But it’s really not hard to get a B. Listen to experts. Create a plan. Show empathy. Stick with it. It’s the best you can be expected to do. 26/
LongHaul Posted May 7, 2020 Posted May 7, 2020 Andy Slavitt is 100% right. Is it that complicated to copy the best? Leadership is incredibly important - a leader can take you over a cliff or pull a drowning team out of a river to safety. People follow leaders. Especially those of the same ideology. I would follow Trump if he was rational and effective in this pandemic and I do have a big allowance for mistakes in the fog of war with this. I have made a ton on the virus and try to keep learning. There are a lot of psychological bias' at play with leaders- Authority, Social proof, Association, Doubt Avoidance, Stress and reason respecting that are at work. That is why any leader needs to be an exemplar. Trump has been much of the opposite. Trump has and likely will continue to do a horrible job on many, many metrics. (I do hope he wises up on the masks). Trump is still not wearing a mask. He is still not wearing a mask. He is still not wearing a mask. Oh - did I mention he is still not wearing a mask. Even when he goes to a mask factory. Even when he is around others that may have it. China and South Korea and tons of data now show wearing masks is super effective. The first lady promotes masks (I give her credit!). Trump's #1 job is reducing the R0. That is by far the most important thing for him. And it has been a total joke. I am sure he has incredibly capable scientists at the CDC, etc but where are they? Why can't I listen to more of them? Why doesn't he let them lead? If I am totally outclassed in an area I stand aside to let someone more effective do their job. A few other points. 1. The false negative rate for Covid-19 tests could be up to 30%. Might be problems with when they do the swabs. That means that anyone that has any symptoms needs to quarantine for 14 days. 2. If I was in Canada or Australia I agree with TwoCities - I would expect a Depression. Was primed for one anyway and then pandemic hit. 3. Great Depression - there were a lot of benefits of the Great Depression - built character and a whole generation of bankers and consumers and businesses learned to be prudent with money. No financial crisis for over 30 years after. Not that I wish for another but perhaps when lessons have been forgotten or ignored one has to come back so people can learn.
Dalal.Holdings Posted May 7, 2020 Posted May 7, 2020 Andy Slavitt is 100% right. Is it that complicated to copy the best? Leadership is incredibly important - a leader can take you over a cliff or pull a drowning team out of a river to safety. People follow leaders. Especially those of the same ideology. I would follow Trump if he was rational and effective in this pandemic and I do have a big allowance for mistakes in the fog of war with this. I have made a ton on the virus and try to keep learning. The problem is we had a leader who initially didn’t want to spook markets during an election year (what happens when you have a sociopath who only puts self interest first). There was also and continues to be high level incompetence, and putting people in charge who are not qualified, but loyal to POTUS like Jared boy. Garbage in, garbage out. Some state leaders seem to be more competent and less driven by pure self interest though.
Jurgis Posted May 7, 2020 Posted May 7, 2020 A startup I am investing in is looking for expert virologist for consultation on how their product may be made to be used for Covid. Please private message me if you have the qualifications and are interested. (Might be small chance, but decided to ask.)
Cigarbutt Posted May 7, 2020 Posted May 7, 2020 A startup I am investing in is looking for expert virologist for consultation on how their product may be made to be used for Covid. Please private message me if you have the qualifications and are interested. (Might be small chance, but decided to ask.) You may try this guy: https://www.mcgill.ca/newsroom/raymond-tellier He has relevant experience (including with SARS) and uses a balanced approach. It's not clear if private ventures are his thing but given enough $, who knows?
rb Posted May 7, 2020 Posted May 7, 2020 Seriously what is it with the Americans? https://www.marketwatch.com/story/two-mcdonalds-workers-shot-by-customer-over-dining-area-dispute-2020-05-07?mod=bnbh
Liberty Posted May 7, 2020 Posted May 7, 2020 What a leader. "Sporadic for you, maybe, but I've heard otherwise.. they tell me..." Meanwhile, the blatant corruption continues:
LC Posted May 7, 2020 Posted May 7, 2020 Seriously what is it with the Americans? https://www.marketwatch.com/story/two-mcdonalds-workers-shot-by-customer-over-dining-area-dispute-2020-05-07?mod=bnbh We've turned into a decidedly average country with a wide tailed distribution ;D ;D
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