Guest cherzeca Posted May 1, 2020 Posted May 1, 2020 some of what I have been reading suggests that it is not the case that swedes did not reduce social interaction and commerce, but rather that the Swedish govt did not see fit to order them to do it. the Swedish govt thought they could rely upon their populace's willingness to do this of their own accord, and it was right.
clutch Posted May 1, 2020 Posted May 1, 2020 It seems plausible that Sweden will have a similar economic downturn as that is largely tied to people's behaviors and trades. If you listen to their top epidemiologist, Johan Giesecke, his main argument is that you will have a similar number of deaths at the end regardless, whether you are in a FORCED lockdown vs a voluntary one. And that there is no need to take such a draconian and authoritarian measure -- which could become a threat to free democracy. His interview: I don't think he mentions economy even once...
Spekulatius Posted May 1, 2020 Posted May 1, 2020 some of what I have been reading suggests that it is not the case that swedes did not reduce social interaction and commerce, but rather that the Swedish govt did not see fit to order them to do it. the Swedish govt thought they could rely upon their populace's willingness to do this of their own accord, and it was right. Yes, I think that’s essentially correct. Due to different starting points and vulnerability, the same thing did not work in Italy , Spain so more stringent measures had to be taken to get the situation under control. I would call Sweden a success in a sense that their citizens support their strategy and the cost has been in their opinion ( which is really all that matters ) acceptable.
Liberty Posted May 1, 2020 Posted May 1, 2020 some of what I have been reading suggests that it is not the case that swedes did not reduce social interaction and commerce, but rather that the Swedish govt did not see fit to order them to do it. the Swedish govt thought they could rely upon their populace's willingness to do this of their own accord, and it was right. The US is clearly not Sweden, though, right?
clutch Posted May 1, 2020 Posted May 1, 2020 some of what I have been reading suggests that it is not the case that swedes did not reduce social interaction and commerce, but rather that the Swedish govt did not see fit to order them to do it. the Swedish govt thought they could rely upon their populace's willingness to do this of their own accord, and it was right. The US is clearly not Sweden, though, right? I think this is a fair point as the people's behavior might be the single most important factor in containing the virus. It probably explains why many Asian countries were able to contain the outbreak. Having said, what now for the US? We see that as soon as the measures are lifted, people quickly go back to their normal behaviors, e.g., what happened on California beaches.
Liberty Posted May 1, 2020 Posted May 1, 2020 Sweden now has one of the highest per capita COVID death rates in the world, higher than the US, and about 6 times higher than neighboring Scandinavian countries. This suggests that a non-interventional approach is imprudent. Taleb: DYNAMIC vs STATIC While the wisdom of a tail-risk decision under asymmetries is not to be decided after, comparative numbers for Sweden are much worse. Sweden's numbers are growing at ~50-150 a day, Norway's 1-5. So expect the ratios to soon be 4000-6000 vs 220-250 for Norway. Also: "Vitamin D Insufficiency is Prevalent in Severe COVID-19" https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20075838v1
LC Posted May 1, 2020 Posted May 1, 2020 Also: "Vitamin D Insufficiency is Prevalent in Severe COVID-19" Perhaps Trump was onto something when he suggested to shove sunlight where the sunlight don't shine ;D ;D ;D
Liberty Posted May 1, 2020 Posted May 1, 2020 "A militia group stands in front of the governor's office." Nice suppressor on that rifle. WTF is wrong with people? ::) https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/30/michigan-protests-coronavirus-lockdown-armed-capitol#img-1
muscleman Posted May 1, 2020 Posted May 1, 2020 https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/05/37be03e4d191-over-117-mil-people-may-make-trips-in-china-during-may-day-holiday.html More than 117 million people are likely to make trips in China during the five-day May Day holiday that started Friday Nothing to see here guys. All new infections in China are now reported like "xxxx city got 30 new cases and that's because a foreign guy came over irresponsibly". I think a 2nd wave is coming. My friend recently went to a good restaurant in Wuhan. Still no one there. Her family was the only one. Where is the pent up demand after this is all over? We have this on top of the most historical asset bubble. Just keep that in mind.
DooDiligence Posted May 1, 2020 Posted May 1, 2020 The Washington Post, citing two people with knowledge of internal discussions, reported on Thursday that some officials had discussed the idea of canceling some of the massive U.S. debt held by China as a way to strike at Beijing for perceived shortfalls in its candidness on the COVID-19 pandemic. Trump's top economic adviser denied the report. "The full faith and credit of U.S. debt obligations is sacrosanct. Period. Full stop," White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow told Reuters. Asked whether he would consider having the United States stop payment of its debt obligations as a way to punish Beijing, Trump said: "Well, I can do it differently. I can do the same thing, but even for more money, just by putting on tariffs. So, I don't have to do that." www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/05/01/business/01reuters-health-coronavirus-usa-china.html
clutch Posted May 1, 2020 Posted May 1, 2020 I think a 2nd wave is coming. Why would anyone think that a 2nd wave was not coming? (when lockdowns are lifted)
Spekulatius Posted May 1, 2020 Posted May 1, 2020 The Washington Post, citing two people with knowledge of internal discussions, reported on Thursday that some officials had discussed the idea of canceling some of the massive U.S. debt held by China as a way to strike at Beijing for perceived shortfalls in its candidness on the COVID-19 pandemic. Trump's top economic adviser denied the report. "The full faith and credit of U.S. debt obligations is sacrosanct. Period. Full stop," White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow told Reuters. Asked whether he would consider having the United States stop payment of its debt obligations as a way to punish Beijing, Trump said: "Well, I can do it differently. I can do the same thing, but even for more money, just by putting on tariffs. So, I don't have to do that." www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/05/01/business/01reuters-health-coronavirus-usa-china.html If this talk becomes more prevalent and Trump picks it up we are going to see a couple of limit down days in a row. Treasuries will get absolutely destroyed with obvious consequences for the financial system.
DooDiligence Posted May 1, 2020 Posted May 1, 2020 The Washington Post, citing two people with knowledge of internal discussions, reported on Thursday that some officials had discussed the idea of canceling some of the massive U.S. debt held by China as a way to strike at Beijing for perceived shortfalls in its candidness on the COVID-19 pandemic. Trump's top economic adviser denied the report. "The full faith and credit of U.S. debt obligations is sacrosanct. Period. Full stop," White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow told Reuters. Asked whether he would consider having the United States stop payment of its debt obligations as a way to punish Beijing, Trump said: "Well, I can do it differently. I can do the same thing, but even for more money, just by putting on tariffs. So, I don't have to do that." www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/05/01/business/01reuters-health-coronavirus-usa-china.html If this talk becomes more prevalent and Trump picks it up we are going to see a couple of limit down days in a row. Treasuries will get absolutely destroyed with obvious consequences for the financial system. He's been playing for small stakes with all his previous bankruptcies. Now he wants to scale it up & show he's truly the master when it comes to running businesses into the ground.
UK Posted May 1, 2020 Posted May 1, 2020 https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/05/37be03e4d191-over-117-mil-people-may-make-trips-in-china-during-may-day-holiday.html More than 117 million people are likely to make trips in China during the five-day May Day holiday that started Friday Nothing to see here guys. All new infections in China are now reported like "xxxx city got 30 new cases and that's because a foreign guy came over irresponsibly". I think a 2nd wave is coming. My friend recently went to a good restaurant in Wuhan. Still no one there. Her family was the only one. Where is the pent up demand after this is all over? We have this on top of the most historical asset bubble. Just keep that in mind. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-04-23/wuhan-s-return-to-life-temperature-checks-and-constant-anxiety Shopping malls and department stores are open again, but largely empty. The same is true of restaurants; people are ordering in instead. The subway is quiet, but autos are selling: If being stuck in traffic is annoying, at least it’s socially distanced. After reopening on March 23, the dealership had been selling about seven cars per day, on pace with last year despite all the restrictions. Most were relatively low-end vehicles, such as the A3, which retails for about 200,000 yuan ($28,000)—the kind of car often bought by families to complement a bigger, fancier model. “People are not willing to take public transport in Wuhan,” said the marketing director, who asked to be identified by only his surname, Pan. “And they don’t dare commute by Didi”—the ubiquitous ride-hailing app. The focus now, Pan said, was on following up with people who’d expressed interest in an Audi in the past but hadn’t bought one. They might be ready to bite. The dealership was looking to expand its current staff of about 150, and employees would soon receive the pay they’d missed during the lockdown. Another salesperson added, “It’s like a boom.”
samwise Posted May 1, 2020 Posted May 1, 2020 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-04-23/wuhan-s-return-to-life-temperature-checks-and-constant-anxiety Shopping malls and department stores are open again, but largely empty. The same is true of restaurants; people are ordering in instead. The subway is quiet, but autos are selling: If being stuck in traffic is annoying, at least it’s socially distanced. After reopening on March 23, the dealership had been selling about seven cars per day, on pace with last year despite all the restrictions. Most were relatively low-end vehicles, such as the A3, which retails for about 200,000 yuan ($28,000)—the kind of car often bought by families to complement a bigger, fancier model. “People are not willing to take public transport in Wuhan,” said the marketing director, who asked to be identified by only his surname, Pan. “And they don’t dare commute by Didi”—the ubiquitous ride-hailing app. The focus now, Pan said, was on following up with people who’d expressed interest in an Audi in the past but hadn’t bought one. They might be ready to bite. The dealership was looking to expand its current staff of about 150, and employees would soon receive the pay they’d missed during the lockdown. Another salesperson added, “It’s like a boom.” Stock ideas? Car dealerships and second hand car retail? AN, KMX, CAMB, VTU?
Viking Posted May 1, 2020 Posted May 1, 2020 The Washington Post, citing two people with knowledge of internal discussions, reported on Thursday that some officials had discussed the idea of canceling some of the massive U.S. debt held by China as a way to strike at Beijing for perceived shortfalls in its candidness on the COVID-19 pandemic. Trump's top economic adviser denied the report. "The full faith and credit of U.S. debt obligations is sacrosanct. Period. Full stop," White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow told Reuters. Asked whether he would consider having the United States stop payment of its debt obligations as a way to punish Beijing, Trump said: "Well, I can do it differently. I can do the same thing, but even for more money, just by putting on tariffs. So, I don't have to do that." www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/05/01/business/01reuters-health-coronavirus-usa-china.html If this talk becomes more prevalent and Trump picks it up we are going to see a couple of limit down days in a row. Treasuries will get absolutely destroyed with obvious consequences for the financial system. He's been playing for small stakes with all his previous bankruptcies. Now he wants to scale it up & show he's truly the master when it comes to running businesses into the ground. This falls under the ‘holy shit’ category. Unbelievable.
Jurgis Posted May 1, 2020 Posted May 1, 2020 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-04-23/wuhan-s-return-to-life-temperature-checks-and-constant-anxiety Shopping malls and department stores are open again, but largely empty. The same is true of restaurants; people are ordering in instead. The subway is quiet, but autos are selling: If being stuck in traffic is annoying, at least it’s socially distanced. After reopening on March 23, the dealership had been selling about seven cars per day, on pace with last year despite all the restrictions. Most were relatively low-end vehicles, such as the A3, which retails for about 200,000 yuan ($28,000)—the kind of car often bought by families to complement a bigger, fancier model. “People are not willing to take public transport in Wuhan,” said the marketing director, who asked to be identified by only his surname, Pan. “And they don’t dare commute by Didi”—the ubiquitous ride-hailing app. The focus now, Pan said, was on following up with people who’d expressed interest in an Audi in the past but hadn’t bought one. They might be ready to bite. The dealership was looking to expand its current staff of about 150, and employees would soon receive the pay they’d missed during the lockdown. Another salesperson added, “It’s like a boom.” Yeah, I was thinking "thank USA for the car culture". Makes going places during lockdown possible and tolerable.
Investor20 Posted May 1, 2020 Posted May 1, 2020 P is for Pence ;D https://nypost.com/2020/04/05/dr-anthony-fauci-tests-negative-for-the-coronavirus/ Dr. Anthony Fauci tests negative for the coronavirus Fauci was responding to a reporter’s question about why he was not wearing a face mask during the White House’s daily press briefing when he shared the test results. “The major reason to wear a face mask, is to protect you from infecting you,” Fauci said while pointing into the press gallery. “I had my test yesterday and it’s negative,” he said. I believe that is the same reason Pence gave. But really who is wearing? Cuomo, Newsom, Brix, Fauci?
Liberty Posted May 1, 2020 Posted May 1, 2020 I believe that is the same reason Pence gave. But really who is wearing? Cuomo, Newsom, Brix, Fauci? Pence was in a hospital where there is an explicit rule about everybody wearing masks (everybody else was following that rule), and he was visiting patients. He wasn't in a press conference room in a federal building where everybody gets screened constantly. See also: https://medium.com/@casanderson/mike-pence-and-the-bystander-effect-a698bbbe4d18
DooDiligence Posted May 1, 2020 Posted May 1, 2020 I believe that is the same reason Pence gave. But really who is wearing? Cuomo, Newsom, Brix, Fauci? Pence was in a hospital where there is an explicit rule about everybody wearing masks (everybody else was following that rule), and he was visiting patients. He wasn't in a press conference room in a federal building where everybody gets screened constantly. See also: https://medium.com/@casanderson/mike-pence-and-the-bystander-effect-a698bbbe4d18 Pence, at a GM plant, clarifying exactly where the eyeballs are located in a human head.
Investor20 Posted May 1, 2020 Posted May 1, 2020 Sweden now has one of the highest per capita COVID death rates in the world, higher than the US, and about 6 times higher than neighboring Scandinavian countries. This suggests that a non-interventional approach is imprudent. Taleb: DYNAMIC vs STATIC While the wisdom of a tail-risk decision under asymmetries is not to be decided after, comparative numbers for Sweden are much worse. Sweden's numbers are growing at ~50-150 a day, Norway's 1-5. So expect the ratios to soon be 4000-6000 vs 220-250 for Norway. Also: "Vitamin D Insufficiency is Prevalent in Severe COVID-19" https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20075838v1 There are major exceptions to "Sweden now has one of the highest per capita COVID death rates in the world" statement. As per worldometer deaths/million Belgium, Spain, Italy, UK, France, Netherlands have more per capita than Sweden. That is a major portion of Europe has more than Sweden. Sweden with 263 deaths/million is not that higher than Ireland 256 Switzerland 202 USA 196 Why select three out of all these countries?
Investor20 Posted May 1, 2020 Posted May 1, 2020 I believe that is the same reason Pence gave. But really who is wearing? Cuomo, Newsom, Brix, Fauci? Pence was in a hospital where there is an explicit rule about everybody wearing masks (everybody else was following that rule), and he was visiting patients. He wasn't in a press conference room in a federal building where everybody gets screened constantly. See also: https://medium.com/@casanderson/mike-pence-and-the-bystander-effect-a698bbbe4d18 I am not defending Dr. Fauci logic. But Dr. Fauci logic is if someone is tested negative, atleast in immediate future, they dont have to wear masks. Pence is using the same logic (as his expert Dr. Fauci told) that Pence got recently tested negative.
ERICOPOLY Posted May 1, 2020 Posted May 1, 2020 Dr. Anthony Fauci tests negative for the coronavirus Fauci was responding to a reporter’s question about why he was not wearing a face mask during the White House’s daily press briefing when he shared the test results. “The major reason to wear a face mask, is to protect you from infecting you,” Fauci said while pointing into the press gallery. “I had my test yesterday and it’s negative,” he said. Fauci essentially is saying that he is confident that he isn't sick today if he was not sick yesterday. That holds true every day going forward if it holds true for the last day past. In other words, everybody testing positive today will never get the virus.
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