Liberty Posted April 30, 2020 Posted April 30, 2020 Sweden It seems a bit harsh to constantly review Sweden on the number of deaths compared to their neighbours as their policy was never aimed at less corona death in the first place and they were upfront about this. If someone wants to compare, you have to look at the broader picture (economic growth, quality of life), which you cannot do until much later. Despite what many predicted, their IC capacity seems to be holding. I think it's useful to look at what this approach does vs different approach. I don't see anything harsh or unfair here. I also saw some numbers somewhere that it's not because things arent officially closed that they aren't basically closed.. saw numbers on Swedish restaurants and theaters being basically zero, but don't remember where. Probably same for any big events, travel, etc. Regarding Sweden -- here is an answer from their former state epidemiologist. "I think we should wait a year when comparing the deaths in different countries." Why not wait 10 years and then we'll really have perspective? This is about real-time decision-making under uncertainty to try to balance various pros and cons to do as well as possible through a crisis..
Jurgis Posted April 30, 2020 Posted April 30, 2020 The same epidemiologist said in another interview that compared to their neighbors Sweden has a lot more old people living in nursing homes, which have been locked down but nonetheless seem to be petri dishes for the virus to spread. And I think well more than half of COVID-related deaths in Sweden so far have come from nursing homes. Nursing homes are getting infected with a large number of deaths in a lot of countries. And yeah, they are locked down across countries, but medical personnel and staff are contact points that carry the infection inside.
clutch Posted April 30, 2020 Posted April 30, 2020 Sweden It seems a bit harsh to constantly review Sweden on the number of deaths compared to their neighbours as their policy was never aimed at less corona death in the first place and they were upfront about this. If someone wants to compare, you have to look at the broader picture (economic growth, quality of life), which you cannot do until much later. Despite what many predicted, their IC capacity seems to be holding. I think it's useful to look at what this approach does vs different approach. I don't see anything harsh or unfair here. I also saw some numbers somewhere that it's not because things arent officially closed that they aren't basically closed.. saw numbers on Swedish restaurants and theaters being basically zero, but don't remember where. Probably same for any big events, travel, etc. Regarding Sweden -- here is an answer from their former state epidemiologist. "I think we should wait a year when comparing the deaths in different countries." Why not wait 10 years and then we'll really have perspective? This is about real-time decision-making under uncertainty to try to balance various pros and cons to do as well as possible through a crisis.. I have answered this before but the 1 year - 18 months timeline is what a lot of modeling work is based on -- when they anticipate that a vaccine will be available. The Swedish argument is that you can't keep the lockdown for 18 months and as soon as any country lifts the lockdown, the number of cases/deaths will peak again -- as the modeling work also predicts. Therefore, if you sum up all the deaths over that period most countries would have suffered a similar number of deaths.
Liberty Posted April 30, 2020 Posted April 30, 2020 I have answered this before but the 1 year - 18 months timeline is what a lot of modeling work is based on -- when they anticipate that a vaccine will be available. The Swedish argument is that you can't keep the lockdown for 18 months and as soon as any country lifts the lockdown, the number of cases/deaths will peak again -- as the modeling work also predicts. Therefore, if you sum up all the deaths over that period most countries would have suffered a similar number of deaths. The flaw with that thinking is that we're learning and working on things that could be here before the vaccine, and the timeline for the vaccine is unknown (could be sooner than we think too), and there's limited healthcare capacity. So if in 2-3 months we have some more therapies/drugs and best practices (proning?) to helps save people who get sick, it's better to be infected later rather than sooner and to keep the curve flat rather than have a high peak early on.
Liberty Posted April 30, 2020 Posted April 30, 2020 https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/30/opinion/coronavirus-covid-vaccine.html "How Long Will a Vaccine Really Take?"
clutch Posted April 30, 2020 Posted April 30, 2020 I have answered this before but the 1 year - 18 months timeline is what a lot of modeling work is based on -- when they anticipate that a vaccine will be available. The Swedish argument is that you can't keep the lockdown for 18 months and as soon as any country lifts the lockdown, the number of cases/deaths will peak again -- as the modeling work also predicts. Therefore, if you sum up all the deaths over that period most countries would have suffered a similar number of deaths. The flaw with that thinking is that we're learning and working on things that could be here before the vaccine, and the timeline for the vaccine is unknown (could be sooner than we think too), and there's limited healthcare capacity. So if in 2-3 months we have some more therapies/drugs and best practices (proning?) to helps save people who get sick, it's better to be infected later rather than sooner and to keep the curve flat rather than have a high peak early on. Vaccine -- I think it'd be the same as relying on a miracle when every expert says it would take at least 18 months. Healthcare capacity -- Good point, but it seems Sweden has avoided overflows. At least I haven't seen any news regarding this. This was obviously a problem in NYC or Italy but might have been overestimated in many countries. As you may know, it's quite the opposite in Ontario where cardiac patients are dying due to delayed surgeries while hospital beds are empty. So a lockdown can directly cause deaths, too. Treatment -- I think the Swedish thinking is that reaching the herd immunity quickly is the best "treatment". This is how a pandemic was overcome throughout our history. It does sound cruel but seems like that's what they believe in. What I'm saying is you can't judge their action unless this pandemic has played out. Especially it was their plan to intentionally go through the peak. You can judge that from a moral/ethical standpoint, but you can't judge whether it's working or not -- yet.
muscleman Posted April 30, 2020 Posted April 30, 2020 After seeing what's happening in China, I am more bearish now. Here is what I think 1. The virus is not going away. Repeated outbreaks happen over and over in various cities in China right now, though the Chinese CDC kept reporting 0-2 cases each day. Harbin is on 2nd lockdown and Xi'an just had a big outbreak. 2. The Gilead drug helps a little but not a game changer. 3. With social distancing enforced, restaurants and all other serivces would at most run at 50% capacity. If you run a restaurant and have 100 seats, with 6ft distancing, you can only do 30-50 customers at once, depending on your seating locations. This will continue to create a drag. 4. Vaccine is not as easy as people thought. Some vaccines can even cause certain subtypes of the virus to infect even faster because the antibody for the other subtypes act as the key to the door. Of course, the Chinese government wants you to think otherwise. It is now blaming all additional outbreaks on irresponsible foreigners spreading virus in China. I see that in all kinds of social media in China. On top of that, we have Buffet and Munger not buying anything after the big market drop. Has this ever happened before? At the same time, we also have all kinds of 0 experience "investors" taking out their credit card, taking mortgage forebearance etc. to trade in the market. I've personally been contacted by a few college classmates who have never traded stocks now wanting to catch this opportunity of a decade to make money. I have to wonder if Buffet and Munger are smarter or these 0 experience day traders.
John Hjorth Posted April 30, 2020 Posted April 30, 2020 I have answered this before but the 1 year - 18 months timeline is what a lot of modeling work is based on -- when they anticipate that a vaccine will be available. The Swedish argument is that you can't keep the lockdown for 18 months and as soon as any country lifts the lockdown, the number of cases/deaths will peak again -- as the modeling work also predicts. Therefore, if you sum up all the deaths over that period most countries would have suffered a similar number of deaths. The flaw with that thinking is that we're learning and working on things that could be here before the vaccine, and the timeline for the vaccine is unknown (could be sooner than we think too), and there's limited healthcare capacity. So if in 2-3 months we have some more therapies/drugs and best practices (proning?) to helps save people who get sick, it's better to be infected later rather than sooner and to keep the curve flat rather than have a high peak early on. Here is an example of what Liberty is talking about, related to the discussion in this topic about what's going on in the Scandinavian countries : Fyens.dk [April 29th 2020] : Ulla has found the solution: Smart "Conversation box" makes it possible to visit family on nursing home. TV2.dk [April 29th 2020] : Daugther invents "Conversation Box" so she can speak with her mother [inside, John] at nursing home. This is a story of a civil engineer called Ulla employed at Novo Nordisk A/S, where she [obviously] is working with work environment on the Novo Nordisk factories, likely with speciality in keeping the air clean, and she has been thinking about how to do something about what everybody is talking about, while nobody trying to do something about it. So she just did it, based on that "... this is not rocket science". - - - o 0 o - - - Decomposition, analysis & solution of a tiny part of an extremely complex issue at hand in totality, and taking a focused stab at that tiny part. Every tiny contribution helps over time, if solutions are shared with the world. - - - o 0 o - - - Anecdotal : This story is from the nursing home here in Odense where my dad lives.
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 30, 2020 Posted April 30, 2020 On top of that, we have Buffet and Munger not buying anything after the big market drop. Has this ever happened before? At the same time, we also have all kinds of 0 experience "investors" taking out their credit card, taking mortgage forebearance etc. to trade in the market. I've personally been contacted by a few college classmates who have never traded stocks now wanting to catch this opportunity of a decade to make money. I have to wonder if Buffet and Munger are smarter or these 0 experience day traders. The market has provided ample opportunity for those who missed this in March to cash out with the S&P now where it was in October 2019. There should be no valid excuse for these people if they lose their shirts.
patience_and_focus Posted April 30, 2020 Posted April 30, 2020 After seeing what's happening in China, I am more bearish now. Here is what I think 1. The virus is not going away. Repeated outbreaks happen over and over in various cities in China right now, though the Chinese CDC kept reporting 0-2 cases each day. Harbin is on 2nd lockdown and Xi'an just had a big outbreak. 2. The Gilead drug helps a little but not a game changer. 3. With social distancing enforced, restaurants and all other serivces would at most run at 50% capacity. If you run a restaurant and have 100 seats, with 6ft distancing, you can only do 30-50 customers at once, depending on your seating locations. This will continue to create a drag. 4. Vaccine is not as easy as people thought. Some vaccines can even cause certain subtypes of the virus to infect even faster because the antibody for the other subtypes act as the key to the door. Of course, the Chinese government wants you to think otherwise. It is now blaming all additional outbreaks on irresponsible foreigners spreading virus in China. I see that in all kinds of social media in China. On top of that, we have Buffet and Munger not buying anything after the big market drop. Has this ever happened before? At the same time, we also have all kinds of 0 experience "investors" taking out their credit card, taking mortgage forebearance etc. to trade in the market. I've personally been contacted by a few college classmates who have never traded stocks now wanting to catch this opportunity of a decade to make money. I have to wonder if Buffet and Munger are smarter or these 0 experience day traders. +1 to all the points above. Particularly #4 (it is called antibody dependent enhancement). I think people have no understanding of what kind of hurdles we may run into. Although as far as I know animal studies to date have not shown this effect for SAR-CoV2. I also think outbreaks that kill so many people will have negative psychological effect on everyone (even though the mortality will be highest in older people). It will be a drag for larger parts of the economy for some time to come (retail, hospitality, tourism and travel, restaurants, energy).
UK Posted April 30, 2020 Posted April 30, 2020 On top of that, we have Buffet and Munger not buying anything after the big market drop. Has this ever happened before? At the same time, we also have all kinds of 0 experience "investors" taking out their credit card, taking mortgage forebearance etc. to trade in the market. I've personally been contacted by a few college classmates who have never traded stocks now wanting to catch this opportunity of a decade to make money. I have to wonder if Buffet and Munger are smarter or these 0 experience day traders. The market has provided ample opportunity for those who missed this in March to cash out with the S&P now where it was in October 2019. There should be no valid excuse for these people if they lose their shirts. https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-turmoil-free-trades-draw-newbies-into-stock-market-11588158001 “I feel like everything that I buy, I watch pretty closely and if it’s something that’s not doing well, I’ll generally try to put [that money] into something that is doing well instead,” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-29/firemen-and-romance-writers-faces-of-a-fierce-rebound-in-stocks “I’m a complete noob when it comes to stocks,” the mother of high school senior twin boys said while sheltering at home. “It’s not thousands and thousands of dollars that I invested, but it’s a start. We’ll see what happens. I hate to say it, but it’s like gambling, isn’t it?” More accounts were opened and dollars invested at E*Trade in the first quarter than in any prior full-year period, according to a company statement. The brokerage added 329,000 retail accounts and over $18 billion in net retail assets.
Liberty Posted April 30, 2020 Posted April 30, 2020 Goolsbee: #1 rule of virus economics = slowing spread of the virus is best thing you can do for the economy.
Spekulatius Posted April 30, 2020 Posted April 30, 2020 On top of that, we have Buffet and Munger not buying anything after the big market drop. Has this ever happened before? At the same time, we also have all kinds of 0 experience "investors" taking out their credit card, taking mortgage forebearance etc. to trade in the market. I've personally been contacted by a few college classmates who have never traded stocks now wanting to catch this opportunity of a decade to make money. I have to wonder if Buffet and Munger are smarter or these 0 experience day traders. The market has provided ample opportunity for those who missed this in March to cash out with the S&P now where it was in October 2019. There should be no valid excuse for these people if they lose their shirts. https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-turmoil-free-trades-draw-newbies-into-stock-market-11588158001 “I feel like everything that I buy, I watch pretty closely and if it’s something that’s not doing well, I’ll generally try to put [that money] into something that is doing well instead,” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-29/firemen-and-romance-writers-faces-of-a-fierce-rebound-in-stocks “I’m a complete noob when it comes to stocks,” the mother of high school senior twin boys said while sheltering at home. “It’s not thousands and thousands of dollars that I invested, but it’s a start. We’ll see what happens. I hate to say it, but it’s like gambling, isn’t it?” More accounts were opened and dollars invested at E*Trade in the first quarter than in any prior full-year period, according to a company statement. The brokerage added 329,000 retail accounts and over $18 billion in net retail assets. Haha who would have thought that having everyone stay at home and enjoying free trades supports the stock market. Seems to me that we need everyone to stop working via a forced lockdown to get the SP500 to new heights. Apparently, the economy isn’t needed any more.
Liberty Posted April 30, 2020 Posted April 30, 2020 New Bill Gates: https://www.gatesnotes.com/Health/What-you-need-to-know-about-the-COVID-19-vaccine
Viking Posted April 30, 2020 Posted April 30, 2020 At some point the reality of what is happening from an economic perspective (devastation) will matter to financial markets. What is happening is new so it is not surprising that people are not able to grasp the significance. It is like standing on a beach and the water is running out into the ocean and you know the tsunami is coming. Do you run for high ground? No. Ignore the facts and stand paralyzed waiting with curiosity to see what happens next. After all, the sun is shining and it really is a beautiful day! And nobody else looks worried. :-) European Slump Is Worst Since World War II, Reports Show - https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/30/business/europe-economy-coronavirus-recession.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage FRANKFURT — Europe is in the midst of a downturn not seen since the end of World War II, and the worst is yet to come, the president of the European Central Bank said Thursday after the release of a barrage of dismal economic data. “The euro area is facing an economic contraction of a magnitude and speed that are unprecedented in peacetime,” Christine Lagarde, the president of the central bank, said as she warned that the eurozone economy could shrink by as much as 12 percent this year. In a bid to prevent another financial crisis, the bank’s Governing Council decided Thursday to effectively pay banks to lend money and vowed to do whatever was necessary to counteract the economic impact of the coronavirus. ...Under certain conditions the central bank will allow commercial banks in the eurozone to borrow at a rate of minus 1 percent provided the money is passed on to businesses and consumers. The negative interest rate means that banks could borrow up to 3 trillion euros, or $3.3 trillion, without having to pay all of the money back.
Liberty Posted April 30, 2020 Posted April 30, 2020 New video by CGP Grey with good advice on how to not go crazy and deteriorate too much mentally and physically in lockdown Spaceship You:
Guest cherzeca Posted April 30, 2020 Posted April 30, 2020 https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/494949-we-can-protect-the-most-vulnerable-and-reopen-the-economy
patience_and_focus Posted April 30, 2020 Posted April 30, 2020 On top of that, we have Buffet and Munger not buying anything after the big market drop. Has this ever happened before? At the same time, we also have all kinds of 0 experience "investors" taking out their credit card, taking mortgage forebearance etc. to trade in the market. I've personally been contacted by a few college classmates who have never traded stocks now wanting to catch this opportunity of a decade to make money. I have to wonder if Buffet and Munger are smarter or these 0 experience day traders. The market has provided ample opportunity for those who missed this in March to cash out with the S&P now where it was in October 2019. There should be no valid excuse for these people if they lose their shirts. https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-turmoil-free-trades-draw-newbies-into-stock-market-11588158001 “I feel like everything that I buy, I watch pretty closely and if it’s something that’s not doing well, I’ll generally try to put [that money] into something that is doing well instead,” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-29/firemen-and-romance-writers-faces-of-a-fierce-rebound-in-stocks “I’m a complete noob when it comes to stocks,” the mother of high school senior twin boys said while sheltering at home. “It’s not thousands and thousands of dollars that I invested, but it’s a start. We’ll see what happens. I hate to say it, but it’s like gambling, isn’t it?” More accounts were opened and dollars invested at E*Trade in the first quarter than in any prior full-year period, according to a company statement. The brokerage added 329,000 retail accounts and over $18 billion in net retail assets. Haha who would have thought that having everyone stay at home and enjoying free trades supports the stock market. Seems to me that we need everyone to stop working via a forced lockdown to get the SP500 to new heights. Apparently, the economy isn’t needed any more. What if some version of it is actually true? That is, stock market is sort of decoupled from main street as most of the stock ownership is primarily in the hands of top 20% in the income distribution. And these are the people least affected by the current events. The most affected areas are retail, restaurants, certain low wage factory jobs, and other low income service jobs requiring people to people interactions relative to other professions. And this will be true irrespective of lockdown or no lockdown because in each scenario, people are going to avoid interactions hence disproportionately affecting the same group of workers.
Gregmal Posted April 30, 2020 Posted April 30, 2020 On top of that, we have Buffet and Munger not buying anything after the big market drop. Has this ever happened before? At the same time, we also have all kinds of 0 experience "investors" taking out their credit card, taking mortgage forebearance etc. to trade in the market. I've personally been contacted by a few college classmates who have never traded stocks now wanting to catch this opportunity of a decade to make money. I have to wonder if Buffet and Munger are smarter or these 0 experience day traders. The market has provided ample opportunity for those who missed this in March to cash out with the S&P now where it was in October 2019. There should be no valid excuse for these people if they lose their shirts. https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-turmoil-free-trades-draw-newbies-into-stock-market-11588158001 “I feel like everything that I buy, I watch pretty closely and if it’s something that’s not doing well, I’ll generally try to put [that money] into something that is doing well instead,” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-29/firemen-and-romance-writers-faces-of-a-fierce-rebound-in-stocks “I’m a complete noob when it comes to stocks,” the mother of high school senior twin boys said while sheltering at home. “It’s not thousands and thousands of dollars that I invested, but it’s a start. We’ll see what happens. I hate to say it, but it’s like gambling, isn’t it?” More accounts were opened and dollars invested at E*Trade in the first quarter than in any prior full-year period, according to a company statement. The brokerage added 329,000 retail accounts and over $18 billion in net retail assets. Haha who would have thought that having everyone stay at home and enjoying free trades supports the stock market. Seems to me that we need everyone to stop working via a forced lockdown to get the SP500 to new heights. Apparently, the economy isn’t needed any more. What if some version of it is actually true? That is, stock market is sort of decoupled from main street as most of the stock ownership is primarily in the hands of top 20% in the income distribution. And these are the people least affected by the current events. The most affected areas are retail, restaurants, certain low wage factory jobs, and other low income service jobs requiring people to people interactions relative to other professions. And this will be true irrespective of lockdown or no lockdown because in each scenario, people are going to avoid interactions hence disproportionately affecting the same group of workers. Its very possible its true on some levels. The price of a Picasso doesnt crater because theres an economic slowdown, neither really do sports teams and plenty of other assets. The stock market reached 2007 peak when? Wasn't it like 2012 or 2013? While many folks didn't get back to life from pre GFC til years later; some never did. My personal hunch is that we're probably setting the stage for the last leg of the bubble blow up. Indeed, forcing people to sit home, the dates actually coinciding with the massive rally(IE since they've stayed home theres been little to do but trade stocks and everyone is making boatloads of money), just wets the appetite no different than a newbie winning their first hand of blackjack. That said its ignorant to just immediately write off other possibilities as well.
Liberty Posted April 30, 2020 Posted April 30, 2020 The market is forward looking, and in a DCF, the next 1-2 years are only worth a certain amount.. So considering the massive stimulus and negative real interest rates, the market isn't being that crazy. I think it's inconvenient for many to not have had the prices go as low as they wanted, but the market has always been hard to predict and won't always go down when the economy is bad or go up when the economy is good. If it was easy, we'd all be richer.
Spekulatius Posted May 1, 2020 Posted May 1, 2020 Looks like some contingency are put in place after all by our supreme leader: https://apple.news/AYVZcXZ0WSNCZ9DfJmFf3LA
clutch Posted May 1, 2020 Posted May 1, 2020 "WHO emergency expert says Sweden could be ‘future model’ for coronavirus policy" https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-who-emergency-expert-20200430-rsa3s3lm6bfk3fjofw3oezzrxu-story.html
Cigarbutt Posted May 1, 2020 Posted May 1, 2020 ^The above link (apple.news) also mentions the resiliency (lack of) of the health care system. Healthcare, almost by definition, is a very low productivity area and this aspect has been underlined with the recent pandemic. In the last few years, some have wondered at the absent productivity paradox in relation to various technologies, automation and artificial intelligence. The virus has considerably burdened the system (broken supply chains, safety procedures, awkward basic equipment, long cleaning phases in between cases) that will take a long time to dissipate and may not go back to the old normal. Tele-consultation is on the rise but, just like with the recent application of electronic records, it is being realized that the development is ill suited for a large number of applications and rarely result in a net positive result, at least at this point, in terms of a productivity enhancement activity. The positive mostly came from resiliency at various levels with elaboration of various evidence-based guidelines, protocols and simple clinical algorithms. It seems that the present level of organization is not ready, at large, for positive productivity steps as it labors to supply basic protective equipment to employees and often faces drug shortages. Of course, productivity improvements will come and the virus could have been a trigger but it may take a while. I was getting ready to short Surgical Partners (SGRY) before the virus as its innovation was mostly financial engineering in nature and its focus was not on end customer value enhancement. It looked like it was ready to be reorganized but was saved by central junk bond buying authorities. In order to know how this will play out, one has to wait until the other side. https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/04/the-decline-of-the-innovation-state-is-killing-us.html it looks like some are ahead of the game for body bags and i guess somebody can run a twitter feed on that or whatever.
UK Posted May 1, 2020 Posted May 1, 2020 "WHO emergency expert says Sweden could be ‘future model’ for coronavirus policy" https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-who-emergency-expert-20200430-rsa3s3lm6bfk3fjofw3oezzrxu-story.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/coronavirus-sweden-economy-to-contract-as-severely-as-the-rest-of-europe.html Nonetheless, data released from the country’s central bank and a leading Swedish think tank show that the economy will be just as badly hit as its European neighbors, if not worse.
samwise Posted May 1, 2020 Posted May 1, 2020 Sweden hasn’t got much of an economic advantage by staying open, nominally. Time will tell if they have gained time and get through this recession faster. Their estimate for GDP are -7% and -10% in the scenarios they published. So keeping your shop open doesn’t help if almost nobody comes. They expect a bounce next year. https://www.riksbank.se/en-gb/press-and-published/notices-and-press-releases/press-releases/2020/monetary-policy-april-2020--the-riksbank-is-supporting-an-economy--in-crisis/ Edit: compare to Denmark modelling three scenarios where the GDP is down 3 to 10%. http://www.nationalbanken.dk/en/publications/Documents/2020/04/ANALYSIS_No%204_Danish%20and%20international%20economy%20hit%20by%20pandemic.pdf
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