Guest cherzeca Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 Remember, the sensitivity and specificity of these antibody tests matters a lot, and NYC is very different from the rest of the country, as the epicenter of the epidemic. There's got to be a lot of false positives in those tests even if 99%, and you can't extrapolate it to the rest of the country. who needs to extrapolate to the rest of the country, for goodness sakes!!! apples to apples. NYC is the epicenter of the crisis, and because major media is NYC-centric, the mass hysteria was exported. why does the governor of michigan go stalinesque? because she wants to look like she is on top of things like cuomo. so of course this doesnt have to be extrapolated nationwide, because NYC's experience isn't the nation's experience. this 20% antibody positive rate makes covid less deadly than the flu. and if this result doesnt comport with how you want to think, then just call it a bad test. an inhale some more sand NYC: 11,267 deaths divided by 21% of 8,000,000 people=mortality rate of 0.67%. just like the flu. 21% likely understates the infection rate as the 3000 adult sample group tested for covid antibodies did not include children, who may have a higher infection (without symptoms) rate
Casey Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 More context on how to interpret ~21%. From twitter "The tests came from people in grocery and big box stores. Cuomo said this was important because it came from people who were out — not people isolating at home."
tng Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 who needs to extrapolate to the rest of the country, for goodness sakes!!! apples to apples. NYC is the epicenter of the crisis, and because major media is NYC-centric, the mass hysteria was exported. why does the governor of michigan go stalinesque? because she wants to look like she is on top of things like cuomo. so of course this doesnt have to be extrapolated nationwide, because NYC's experience isn't the nation's experience. this 20% antibody positive rate makes covid less deadly than the flu. and if this result doesnt comport with how you want to think, then just call it a bad test. an inhale some more sand At some point, science is going to prove common sense again and we will learn/confirm that the majority of New York's cases (and likely Boston's cases too) come from their reliance on their subway system. That is six million people in extremely tightly packed trains with poor ventilation every day (likely two trips a day, mostly during rush hours). I suspect that the subway system at New York combined with the international travel due to New York City being the premiere business hub in the world is actually the biggest vector of worldwide transmission and spread. How do we reopen New York City without an explosion of cases again due to everybody needing the subway system? That is a very hard question. Maybe New York will have to operate for a while without subways (it would be a pain for a lot of people). But sparse rural areas in the U.S. should not be waiting forever until New York figures that out.
KCLarkin Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 NYC: 11,267 deaths divided by 21% of 8,000,000 people=mortality rate of 0.67%. just like the flu. I love the confidence! Even though you are so consistently proven wrong, you still post with gusto! What is the Infection Fatality Rate of the flu? Nobody actually believes it is 0.67%, do they? This comprehensive review shows ~10 deaths per 100,000 H1N1infections: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3809029/ So comparing your bogus numbers for CV to these bogus numbers for H1N1, CV is 67 times more deadly than the flu! Edit to add: your bogus "mortality rate" also ignores the significant delay between infection and death. So your numerator is significantly understated.
Guest cherzeca Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 More context on how to interpret ~21%. From twitter "The tests came from people in grocery and big box stores. Cuomo said this was important because it came from people who were out — not people isolating at home." this is stupid by cuomo. people who isolate at home also need to go shopping for food or needed items. or would cuomo like to go the next step and hermetically seal everyone for the next month?
Guest cherzeca Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 NYC: 11,267 deaths divided by 21% of 8,000,000 people=mortality rate of 0.67%. just like the flu. I love the confidence! Even though you are so consistently proven wrong, you still post with gusto! What is the Infection Fatality Rate of the flu? Nobody actually believes it is 0.67%, do they? This comprehensive review shows ~10 deaths per 100,000 H1N1infections: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3809029/ So comparing your bogus numbers for CV to these bogus numbers for H1N1, CV is 67 times more deadly than the flu! I love the stupidity! the 21% positive antibody test results on NYCers (3000 person sample) is the best DATUM we have on creating the correct denominator of the mortality per infection rate. what is your problem, Larkin? https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/
Viking Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 Remember, the sensitivity and specificity of these antibody tests matters a lot, and NYC is very different from the rest of the country, as the epicenter of the epidemic. There's got to be a lot of false positives in those tests even if 99%, and you can't extrapolate it to the rest of the country. who needs to extrapolate to the rest of the country, for goodness sakes!!! apples to apples. NYC is the epicenter of the crisis, and because major media is NYC-centric, the mass hysteria was exported. why does the governor of michigan go stalinesque? because she wants to look like she is on top of things like cuomo. so of course this doesnt have to be extrapolated nationwide, because NYC's experience isn't the nation's experience. this 20% antibody positive rate makes covid less deadly than the flu. and if this result doesnt comport with how you want to think, then just call it a bad test. an inhale some more sand NYC: 11,267 deaths divided by 21% of 8,000,000 people=mortality rate of 0.67%. just like the flu. In all of the US last year there were a total of 15,500 murders. The death rate is infinitely lower than the flu (not just like the flu). Therefore we can now conclude that murders are not important. All the effort put in by law enforcement to solve them is a complete waste of time. Judiciary? Waste of time and resources. Jails? Who will need them moving forward? Bottom line, we now have out metric to determine if an activity is useful to society: how does is compare statistically to the flu? We have been so blind for so long. Thanks to those on the board who keep pushing this logic... i finally understand (so you can stop anytime :-)
JRM Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 What if the death rate is the same as the flue (that would be good), but what if it spreads much faster. What if (hypothetically) everyone was infected at the same time. Is that a problem?
Guest cherzeca Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 What if the death rate is the same as the flue (that would be good), but what if it spreads much faster. What if (hypothetically) everyone was infected at the same time. Is that a problem? everyone like dalal has been quoting a mortality rate of 3-4% for covid, which is too high by at least 5X. during 2018 flu season in US, 80,000 deaths were attributed to flu...and there was no mass shutdown by an overweaning government. so context is important. your question is interesting and my tentative response is the vector speed is important when considering hospital ICU capacity, and perhaps going forward there needs to be not only stockpiling of PPE but also flexibility for ICU expansion on short notice. my buddy, a pulmonologist in Jax, responded to an urgent call for critical care MDs from Lincoln hospital, bronx. their normal ICU bed capacity was 34 ICU beds and they had to expand to 241 ICU beds. MASH like. so my buddy spent two weeks learning its medical records and other protocols and actually got himself approved as an admitting physician at Lincoln! what a mensch! then he gets a text from the head of medicine at Lincoln saying, never mind, we are all good, no need to come. crisis over so capacities are important but so is speed of response. which your question raises.
jondoug Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 Remember, the sensitivity and specificity of these antibody tests matters a lot, and NYC is very different from the rest of the country, as the epicenter of the epidemic. There's got to be a lot of false positives in those tests even if 99%, and you can't extrapolate it to the rest of the country. who needs to extrapolate to the rest of the country, for goodness sakes!!! apples to apples. NYC is the epicenter of the crisis, and because major media is NYC-centric, the mass hysteria was exported. why does the governor of michigan go stalinesque? because she wants to look like she is on top of things like cuomo. so of course this doesnt have to be extrapolated nationwide, because NYC's experience isn't the nation's experience. this 20% antibody positive rate makes covid less deadly than the flu. and if this result doesnt comport with how you want to think, then just call it a bad test. an inhale some more sand NYC: 11,267 deaths divided by 21% of 8,000,000 people=mortality rate of 0.67%. just like the flu. Elementary math, 330M US Population * 0.67% = 330 * 0.0067 = 2.211M. Yeah, more than 2M people dying is just like the flu.
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 What if the death rate is the same as the flue (that would be good), but what if it spreads much faster. What if (hypothetically) everyone was infected at the same time. Is that a problem? everyone like dalal has been quoting a mortality rate of 3-4% for covid, Don't misquote me.
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 This is quite a clever way of moving the goalposts. Nobody was disputing that the virus was spreading in the USA in March--or even in February. The thing everyone disagreed with was that there hundreds of thousands or millions of cases in March. So I guess this is admission you were wrong while trying to rewrite what you said and what the actual disagreement was about? (Like, good grief--why is it so hard for you to say that your speculation was wrong? It was a speculation, and speculations are often wrong. Why the heck would you allow a random speculation to bias you in such a huge way for everything that came afterward, rather than say, "Hey that speculation was wrong, but this is my view on what's happening now"? So brutal!) The goalposts are moving so fast it's hard to keep track. Reminds me of TSLAQ. In the middle of March it was speculated repeatedly that "covid was here widespread for months" and there were hundreds of thousands/millions cases undetected "months ago" (i.e. that would imply January). Now they're saying they said the whole time that it was widespread in the middle of March, not January. Gee, isn't that interesting. It was those of us on here from the end of February pounding the table saying it was exponentially exploding here in the U.S. starting in March and people like Cuomo who said we needed to lock down in March because cases were getting out of hand. Clever attempt to move the posts. Oh well. It's not my job to inform and correct the record. Not my idea of time well spent. Keep on keeping on.
Guest cherzeca Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 Remember, the sensitivity and specificity of these antibody tests matters a lot, and NYC is very different from the rest of the country, as the epicenter of the epidemic. There's got to be a lot of false positives in those tests even if 99%, and you can't extrapolate it to the rest of the country. who needs to extrapolate to the rest of the country, for goodness sakes!!! apples to apples. NYC is the epicenter of the crisis, and because major media is NYC-centric, the mass hysteria was exported. why does the governor of michigan go stalinesque? because she wants to look like she is on top of things like cuomo. so of course this doesnt have to be extrapolated nationwide, because NYC's experience isn't the nation's experience. this 20% antibody positive rate makes covid less deadly than the flu. and if this result doesnt comport with how you want to think, then just call it a bad test. an inhale some more sand NYC: 11,267 deaths divided by 21% of 8,000,000 people=mortality rate of 0.67%. just like the flu. Elementary math, 330M US Population * 0.67% = 330 * 0.0067 = 2.211M. Yeah, more than 2M people dying is just like the flu. they dipstick, mortality rate is a % of infected, not a % of population. elementary common sense
Guest cherzeca Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 What if the death rate is the same as the flue (that would be good), but what if it spreads much faster. What if (hypothetically) everyone was infected at the same time. Is that a problem? everyone like dalal has been quoting a mortality rate of 3-4% for covid, Don't misquote me. dont have to dipstick. your hubristic pronouncements are all over this thread
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 What if the death rate is the same as the flue (that would be good), but what if it spreads much faster. What if (hypothetically) everyone was infected at the same time. Is that a problem? everyone like dalal has been quoting a mortality rate of 3-4% for covid, Don't misquote me. dont have to dipstick. your hubristic pronouncements are all over this thread Keep up the good work, you treasure you.
Gregmal Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 What if the death rate is the same as the flue (that would be good), but what if it spreads much faster. What if (hypothetically) everyone was infected at the same time. Is that a problem? everyone like dalal has been quoting a mortality rate of 3-4% for covid, Don't misquote me. dont have to dipstick. your hubristic pronouncements are all over this thread LOL quote him? He refuses to commit to anything. He's been caught lying and called out for retroactively editing the substance of his posts. He rushed to judgment based entirely off of emotions and politics inspired hatred as he misinterpreted Twitter quotes as facts and declared victory and rewrote narratives based on misinformation and preconceived biases, that manifested over a couple weeks. Now, as time has passed on real information, real facts have presented themselves, he stands alone and ashamed, hoping only to again revert to not owing anyone anything and disowning the narratives that he shouted from the rooftops but never actually committed to....
KCLarkin Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 I love the stupidity! the 21% positive antibody test results on NYCers (3000 person sample) is the best DATUM we have on creating the correct denominator of the mortality per infection rate. what is your problem, Larkin? https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/ What is your denominator for those 80,000 regular flu deaths? You make a back-of-the-envelope estimate for COVID IFR and then announce that it is "just like the flu" without having the intellectual curiosity to actually calculate the IFR for "just the flu"? No expert thinks that "the flu" has an IFR anywhere near 0.67%*. The estimates I've seen are around 0.1%. But if you factor in asymptomatic cases, it is likely even lower. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html So Covid is at least 7 times more deadly than "just the flu". -- * even if your Covid denominator is right, your numerator is wrong due to the lag between infection and death.
minten Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 Why are some of you people so obsessed with being proven right (or: making sure we all know somebody else was wrong)? It's so painfully obvious none of us were right, not even remotely, and nobody was "less wrong" than anybody else. As data comes in the truth appears to be more and more somewhere in the middle between what we were all saying. Can't we just accept that and move on by posting interesting articles etc... I mean, do whatever you want, but it's so stupid.
KCLarkin Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 everyone like dalal has been quoting a mortality rate of 3-4% for covid, which is too high by at least 5X. Dalal, I don't think he is smart enough to know the difference between CFR and IFR. So he might actually believe this B.S.
Spekulatius Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 NYC: 11,267 deaths divided by 21% of 8,000,000 people=mortality rate of 0.67%. just like the flu. I love the confidence! Even though you are so consistently proven wrong, you still post with gusto! What is the Infection Fatality Rate of the flu? Nobody actually believes it is 0.67%, do they? This comprehensive review shows ~10 deaths per 100,000 H1N1infections: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3809029/ So comparing your bogus numbers for CV to these bogus numbers for H1N1, CV is 67 times more deadly than the flu! I love the stupidity! the 21% positive antibody test results on NYCers (3000 person sample) is the best DATUM we have on creating the correct denominator of the mortality per infection rate. what is your problem, Larkin? https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/ I agree that this is a meaningful study. It’s large enough and reasonably random. There might be a bias in just choosing people outside vs at home but it is likely not a strong one. 0.67% morbidity is ~7x deadlier than the flu though. The flu kills between 10-50k annually and infects ~30M (roughly ) so thats in the 0.1% ballpark. In addition, it’s much more infective.
clutch Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 I love the stupidity! the 21% positive antibody test results on NYCers (3000 person sample) is the best DATUM we have on creating the correct denominator of the mortality per infection rate. what is your problem, Larkin? https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/ What is your denominator for those 80,000 regular flu deaths? You make a back-of-the-envelope estimate for COVID IFR and then announce that it is "just like the flu" without having the intellectual curiosity to actually calculate the IFR for "just the flu"? No expert thinks that "the flu" has an IFR anywhere near 0.67%*. The estimates I've seen are around 0.1%. But if you factor in asymptomatic cases, it is likely even lower. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html So Covid is at least 7 times more deadly than "just the flu". -- * even if your Covid denominator is right, your numerator is wrong due to the lag between infection and death. Either way, COVID-19 seems much less deadly than expected, perhaps an order of magnitude, which is a good thing. Would you agree?
KCLarkin Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 Either way, COVID-19 seems much less deadly than expected, perhaps an order of magnitude, which is a good thing. Would you agree? No, this is horrible! The estimated IFR has been 0.65-1% since at least early March. 0.67%* is devastatingly high. If we want herd immunity (say 70% infected), that would be over 1.5M deaths in the U.S.
clutch Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 Either way, COVID-19 seems much less deadly than expected, perhaps an order of magnitude, which is a good thing. Would you agree? No, this is horrible! The estimated IFR has been 0.65-1% since at least early March. 0.67%* is devastatingly high. If we want herd immunity (say 70% infected), that would be over 1.5M deaths in the U.S. I'd say that's better than 3-4%.
Cigarbutt Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 NYC: 11,267 deaths divided by 21% of 8,000,000 people=mortality rate of 0.67%. just like the flu. I love the confidence! Even though you are so consistently proven wrong, you still post with gusto! What is the Infection Fatality Rate of the flu? Nobody actually believes it is 0.67%, do they? This comprehensive review shows ~10 deaths per 100,000 H1N1infections: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3809029/ So comparing your bogus numbers for CV to these bogus numbers for H1N1, CV is 67 times more deadly than the flu! I love the stupidity! the 21% positive antibody test results on NYCers (3000 person sample) is the best DATUM we have on creating the correct denominator of the mortality per infection rate. what is your problem, Larkin? https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/ I agree that this is a meaningful study. It’s large enough and reasonably random. There might be a bias in just choosing people outside vs at home but it is likely not a strong one. 0.67% morbidity is ~7x deadlier than the flu though. The flu kills between 10-50k annually and infects ~30M (roughly ) so thats in the 0.1% ballpark. In addition, it’s much more infective. The inferred image of the invisible part of the iceberg is slowly getting clearer and the visible part of the iceberg is narrowing down to real value even more. -For NY State, annual death rates of influenza and pneumonia 2014 4702 2015 4881 2016 4513 2017 4517 2018 4749 -For NY State, death rate from Covid-19 is now 15 740 and it is reasonable to expect a total between 25 to 30k deaths reached within the next few weeks. This would tend to support the hypothesis of 6x more deaths with measures in place.
KCLarkin Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 I'd say that's better than 3-4%. Nobody ever had a 3-4% IFR estimate. You are conflating CFR with IFR. The estimated IFR was always around 0.65%.
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