jondoug

Thanks @rkbabang. Will check out The Bitcoin Standard.

Thanks @Vish_ram , @TwoCitiesCapital . Makes more sense to me now. BTC is more of an asset class like gold and will behave more like gold once it reaches its saturation level. As to what is that saturation level -- it is up to each individual to speculate .

Agree on an individual level. But, wouldn't the governments and the think tanks not think this through and figure out alternatives to it. Worlcoin was one attempt in that direction: https://worldcoin.org/. I am just trying to understand the odds of Bitcoin not becoming the default cryptocurrency.

Maybe I am thinking about it the wrong way. Please correct me if I am wrong here. My assumptions: 1. If Bitcoin becomes the medium of transaction the world over, as the world GDP increases, Bitcoin's value increases as the total number of Bitcoins is limited. 2. If I hold a large chunk of Bitcoins, I (and the successors to my fortune) don't have to do anything. As the overall wealth in the world increases, my wealth will increase proportionally. Inflation doesn't matter. New technologies don't matter. My share of the wealth remains more or less the same, except for small amounts I may sell to take care of expenses. Current billionaires and companies are dependent on continuing to create new wealth to keep their share of the overall wealth in society. If they and their successors don't keep up by creating an equivalent share of the new wealth, their share will decrease. So, this early mover advantage, is something the world has never seen before. Will everyone else who is not one of the early movers, especially among the current billionaires, companies and governments, let this happen?

Assuming Bitcoin becomes the defacto currency, the income inequality created would be so huge, I can't think of a scenario where it can become a reality. Agreed there has always been inequality in society, but it has always had a real asset behind and ability to defend the asset - Kings with their armies or governments with the military behind it. Why would the world move towards a Bitcoin world where Satoshi or the select few who just happened to buy into it early become defacto ruling class? Will the rest of society let it happen? Doesn't this make an alternate coin, without the first mover advantage, much more likely to gain acceptance? Maybe a government issued digital currency.

I wasn't assigned, even though WFC closed at 29.01! Wow, that's quite a surprise, but I guess it can be a useful bonus that you can probably replace that exposure either with a higher premium or a lower strike at a good IRR. I don't do this as much as you, but I've never had that happen. The most unusual thing for me was to have a few contracts assigned to me a good number of days before expiry. I used to have this happen on occasion, but only when the put was in the money by just a few cents. In the last few years, even when the put was in the money by only $0.01, I was getting assigned. I had something similar happen. I had written WFC covered calls with a strike of 29.5. The covered shares got sold at 29.5, even though market closed at 29.01.

Another attempt at buying all of Blackberry https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/blackberry-rises-on-fairfax-talks-to-acquire-remaining-shares

who needs to extrapolate to the rest of the country, for goodness sakes!!! apples to apples. NYC is the epicenter of the crisis, and because major media is NYC-centric, the mass hysteria was exported. why does the governor of michigan go stalinesque? because she wants to look like she is on top of things like cuomo. so of course this doesnt have to be extrapolated nationwide, because NYC's experience isn't the nation's experience. this 20% antibody positive rate makes covid less deadly than the flu. and if this result doesnt comport with how you want to think, then just call it a bad test. an inhale some more sand NYC: 11,267 deaths divided by 21% of 8,000,000 people=mortality rate of 0.67%. just like the flu. Elementary math, 330M US Population * 0.67% = 330 * 0.0067 = 2.211M. Yeah, more than 2M people dying is just like the flu.

The first time I tried it, I had the same issues you mentioned. The trick is to press hard at the top of the mask so that there is a good fit around your nose. Once you do that, there is no humid air coming up towards the face/glasses at the top and no issues.

Interesting article. If the authors are right, it's a game-changer. What's the push-back to this? What are they missing? The thing they're missing is that their model doesn't match the evidence. In the UK, they're testing 8000 people a day, but until yesterday were finding fewer than 1000 cases per day. Presumably they're testing the people most likely to have COVID-19, yet far fewer than half the tests come back positive. The only way that half the population could be infected and yet only a small percentage test positive is if either the tests are far more likely to have a false negative than a correct positive, or if the people they're testing are far less likely to have the disease than everyone else. By far, the most reasonable hypothesis is that their model sucks. Their model seems to cherry pick data with a preconceived result in mind. They start with the first case in the US being reported on Jan 15th, but then pick Jan 1 for their model. And then, this: Picking results from 450 NBA players who have extremely high degree of contact and mobility and extrapolating it to the general population of 45 million is dubious at best.

What about the elephant in the room, BRK? Given the under performance in the past few years, the cash drag etc., there is a good chance it could get back to returning 15% plus in the next decade.

Guy Spier does file 13Fs: https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?CIK=0001404599&action=getcompany However, not really sure where Dataroma is reporting the Tweedy Browne Value Fund from. Dataroma seems to also include Mutual Fund reports. Maybe the Tweedy Browne data is from that?