Cigarbutt Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 Question about US healthcare, from an investment perspective. Being outside the US I don’t understand US healthcare, but could impact companies and consumers. So I thought I’d ask on this thread, which has a lot US posters. Who pays for treatment of COVID? Is it the health insurance? What about those who are now unemployed? Is this a big hit for insurers or employers who self insure. If employers stay open, are they open to workplace safety claims? Are the sick supposed to pay for treatment themselves, and if so do we expect much more indebted consumers coming out of this? I read and article saying testing is now free, but treatment would be 70k out of pocket even for those insured. This would make most people prefer to rough it out in those majority of cases when the symptoms are mild. Not sure of the accuracy of that. TIA for any answer. So many questions (and unknowables) and so little time! It looks like health insurers will face much higher costs from COVID-19 but other costs may go down. Anyways, they can always catch up with premium increases after. Hospitals and providers will take a huge hit from less elective procedures which are higher margin items. More people are likely to forgo care but that also may result in unexpected net results at the population level. Costs will somehow (with various deductibles and co-pays along the way) be transmitted from the employer to the individual with presently devised bailouts (of the Medicaid type, and depending on the state), recently adopted (and to be defined) legal provisions and likely other public bailouts to come. Workplace safety claims is an issue that needs to be resolved. The CV has exposed some strengths of the system but also the deep deficiencies. What's happening tells a lot more about the host than about the disease. It's hard to see an outcome that doesn't involve more public oversight and possibly outright nationalization (whether one likes it or not). So what about investments? In the long term, this simply means that all health-related stocks' returns will gravitate to utility-like regulated returns. Players that clearly don't bring value to the system are likely to suffer (there are many of those now). There will be opportunities for under-the-radar small private entities (that may be allowed to grow before private equity shows up) that may be able to bridge gaps during the changing roles and balance between the private market and central public entities. If you're looking for some kind of scorecard of CV vs systemic response, see: https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/comparing-six-health-care-systems-pandemic This discussion could end up with specific names if there is sufficient interest.
Gregmal Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 Once again, the loonie left is so wrapped up in their derangement, they miss a completely inarguable and blatantly legitimate criticism... Trump is now CRITICIZING Brian Kemp for opening too soon! A week after lambasting governors for not opening! Much more valid than all these... "hmmm if I take this out of context statement, and throw this! spin on it, it looks really bad!" rhetoric I want honesty & not bullshit. Outside of blowing up the entire system, this is impossible. Every generation of politicians seems to have to play dirtier than the previous. Social media only upped the ante. No better way to destroy the importance of context and content than limiting blurbs to 160 word soundbites and 3 sentence gotcha zingers.
Guest cherzeca Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 Why are some of you people so obsessed with being proven right (or: making sure we all know somebody else was wrong)? It's so painfully obvious none of us were right, not even remotely, and nobody was "less wrong" than anybody else. As data comes in the truth appears to be more and more somewhere in the middle between what we were all saying. Can't we just accept that and move on by posting interesting articles etc... I mean, do whatever you want, but it's so stupid. great question, and here is where I am coming from. I believe this nationwide shutdown in the face of covid is the biggest public policy failure since the Vietnam war. there are similarities such as excessive reliance on "experts", and refusal to tailor our response to the "enemy" presented (Vietnam=guerrila war), covid (primary threat to elderly). I believe it sets a terrible precedent for govt intervention into private lives and private ordering on a massively broad and intrusive scale. now perhaps all this exercise of govt power might be necessary if covid presented "no other choice". but the more you examine the situation, the more you realize there were other choices. but if you simply accept the conclusions of "experts" and their (wildly inaccurate) epidemiological models, then you are paving the way for an elimination of liberty on an even more massive scale next time....and there will always be next time for the govt and politicians to exercise excessive power...even beyond ordering 50,000 American men (mostly) to their deaths for no gain or reason. so it is important to be right, when confronted with massive govt power grabs.
Liberty Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 Once again, the loonie left is so wrapped up in their derangement, they miss a completely inarguable and blatantly legitimate criticism... Trump is now CRITICIZING Brian Kemp for opening too soon! A week after lambasting governors for not opening! Much more valid than all these... "hmmm if I take this out of context statement, and throw this! spin on it, it looks really bad!" rhetoric It's frustrating that some still think political party is correlated with quality of response (I have the broader public in mind, not this board). The best responses have been deliberate and honest, even if they aren't ultimately the best outcomes. De Blasio is another that has consistently screwed up. He seems to panic and go to an extreme response at each turn. It's everything that bothers me about Trump. In this interview with an expert on the 1918 flu, who was part of the Bush task force to improve pandemic readiness, he says that the pandemic response plans called for no politicians to be in charged, because whoever it is, a large fraction of the population would take what they says with skepticism for political reasons. They said a highly respected apolitical scientist should be in charge, in this case Dr. Fauci. https://peterattiamd.com/johnbarry/ But Trump can't not have the spotlight on himself, so that part of the plan went out... Barry had interesting things to say about the US federal response to this crisis in the podcast..
arcube Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 The problem in US is our "experts" got everything wrong. If you take anything our "experts" told us and do opposite, we would be better. 1) They started saying no human-human transmission. 2) Then they started saying no asymptomatic transmission. 3) Then they started saying not many asymptomatic people. 4) Then they told us Dont wear masks. 5) Then Dr. Fauci said we will eventually do antibody tests but that is not the need of the hour. 6) Then they were telling us summer (heat, humidity & sunlight) has not much effect on Covid. While Japanese started with masks right away in January. While in late February Pelosi is going running around China town how it is good to go to shopping and walking tours and Blasio is recommending in early March what movies to go to, Japanese were wearing masks, disinfecting hands, subways, etc. It is not just a fluke that Japan had 3 deaths/million and US has 152/million. Our "experts" have been so good. Getting 0 out of 6 right. You are drinking the bleach. https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthelper/6879-2020-covid-19-red-dawn-rising/66f590d5cd41e11bea0f/optimized/full.pdf Great link to the PDF Schwab. Thanks.
rb Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 You guys should not talk junk without knowing what you are saying. Photodynamic therapy is an established therapy. Its used to treat cancers in lung or digestive systems by shinning light onto the tumors using optical fiber inserted into the body with light wavelength that the tumor is sensitive. Read about it below. https://www.cancerresearchuk.org/about-cancer/lung-cancer/treatment/photodynamic-therapy-pdt You could definitely shine UV light that the virus is sensitive to in lungs. Is it effective? I dont know. Anyway, Trump was asking a question to the scientist "may be you can, may be you can't", means he actually doesnt know it. Ok, I won't talk. I'll let someone who knows more than me. “Neither sitting in the sun, nor heating will kill a virus replicating in an individual patient’s internal organs,” said Penny Ward, a professor in pharmaceutical medicine at Kings College London and chair of the Education and Standards Committee of the Faculty of Pharmaceutical Medicine.“Drinking bleach kills. Injecting bleach kills faster. Don’t do either!” she added. Btw, if Trump doesn't know something, don't you think that the time and place to ask it is in private and before he addresses the nation? But tell me more about common sense.
KCLarkin Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 great question, and here is where I am coming from. I believe this nationwide shutdown in the face of covid is the biggest public policy failure since the Vietnam war. there are similarities such as excessive reliance on "experts", and refusal to tailor our response to the "enemy" presented (Vietnam=guerrila war), covid (primary threat to elderly). I believe it sets a terrible precedent for govt intervention into private lives and private ordering on a massively broad and intrusive scale. now perhaps all this exercise of govt power might be necessary if covid presented "no other choice". but the more you examine the situation, the more you realize there were other choices. but if you simply accept the conclusions of "experts" and their (wildly inaccurate) epidemiological models, then you are paving the way for an elimination of liberty on an even more massive scale next time....and there will always be next time for the govt and politicians to exercise excessive power...even beyond ordering 50,000 American men (mostly) to their deaths for no gain or reason. so it is important to be right, when confronted with massive govt power grabs. If you kept to opinions, then this would be perfectly acceptable. You can say: lockdowns are a bad economic policy. That personal freedoms trump public health. That more people will die due to an economic depression. Fine. Those are all reasonable arguments. Instead, you post bullshit and claim it is the truth. I just made a post, using your numbers for "mortality rate", that showed that the epidemiological models were surprisingly accurate. And you turn around and say that the models were wildly inaccurate. You show that the "mortality rate" for COVID in NYC is 0.67% and so it "just like the flu". When we point out that this actually means that it is ~10 times more deadly than the flu, you move on to your next bullshit "fact". Unfortunately, viruses don't play politics and they don't respect "alternative facts".
Jurgis Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 All Trump supporters please start injecting bleach intravenously asap, kk thx OK. Your sacrifice is appreciated. We will remember you fondly.
Liberty Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2765270 Conclusions and Relevance The preliminary findings of this study suggest that the higher CQ dosage should not be recommended for critically ill patients with COVID-19 because of its potential safety hazards, especially when taken concurrently with azithromycin and oseltamivir. These findings cannot be extrapolated to patients with nonsevere COVID-19.
clutch Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 All Trump supporters please start injecting bleach intravenously asap, kk thx OK. Your sacrifice is appreciated. We will remember you fondly. You guys are really fucked in US if this is the typical attitude of a non Trump supporter. Start a civil war, already.
Liberty Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 It's not lockdown that's clobbering the economy. It's CORONAVIRUS. This is the biggest problem for the "reopen everything" crowd. Even if you remove all of the coronavirus restrictions, not many people are willing to actually go back to normal activities.
Gregmal Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 All Trump supporters please start injecting bleach intravenously asap, kk thx OK. Your sacrifice is appreciated. We will remember you fondly. You guys are really fucked in US if this is the typical attitude of a non Trump supporter. Start a civil war, already. Eh I dont think it really is. Theres some jurgoffs here and then, on both sides, the ones that always make the news rallying in Charlottesville or assaulting cops, but the majority I think have a common ground of discontent with establishment politicians, the same end goal/objective, but just different political leanings which in the current environment prove quite irritable to each other given the constant news flow and propaganda. Like a never ending mosquito bite.
Liberty Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 Meanwhile, because his priorities are in order, Trump is trying to increase shipping rates to hurt Amazon (and everybody who order online) and bully the Washington Post during a time when everybody is ordering more online: Trump just told the press pool that the US Postal Service should raise its shipping prices by four times -- and as leverage he threatened to withhold a congressionally-approved emergency coronavirus loan to USPS https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/23/10-billion-treasury-loan-usps/
Investor20 Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 The problem in US is our "experts" got everything wrong. If you take anything our "experts" told us and do opposite, we would be better. 1) They started saying no human-human transmission. 2) Then they started saying no asymptomatic transmission. 3) Then they started saying not many asymptomatic people. 4) Then they told us Dont wear masks. 5) Then Dr. Fauci said we will eventually do antibody tests but that is not the need of the hour. 6) Then they were telling us summer (heat, humidity & sunlight) has not much effect on Covid. While Japanese started with masks right away in January. While in late February Pelosi is going running around China town how it is good to go to shopping and walking tours and Blasio is recommending in early March what movies to go to, Japanese were wearing masks, disinfecting hands, subways, etc. It is not just a fluke that Japan had 3 deaths/million and US has 152/million. Our "experts" have been so good. Getting 0 out of 6 right. You are drinking the bleach. https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthelper/6879-2020-covid-19-red-dawn-rising/66f590d5cd41e11bea0f/optimized/full.pdf Great link to the PDF Schwab. Thanks. It is not fair way to call me names and throw an 80 page pdf without any explanation. My comments were based not on private emails but official statements. For example April 2, WHO report states https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200402-sitrep-73-covid-19.pdf There are few reports of laboratory-confirmed cases who are truly asymptomatic, and to date, there has been no documented asymptomatic transmission. Yet by January 27th article it is reported in Japan: https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/masks-out-as-japan-s-korea-report-new-cases "although the fact that carriers of the virus may not show detectable symptoms has been a major cause of concern." " executive acting secretary-general of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, called for "full-scale border control measures" "In Japan, orders for masks have reportedly jumped by over tenfold, prompting mask maker Unicharm to start round-the-clock production to meet demand. Hotels and shopping malls alike have set up alcohol-based hand sanitisers at entrances, as have shops in Chinatown in Yokohama and Kobe." Yet on February 18th Dr. Fauci gave this interview: https://news.yahoo.com/top-disease-official-risk-coronavirus-222852299.html Fauci doesn't want people to worry about coronavirus, the danger of which is "just minuscule." But he does want them to take precautions against the "influenza outbreak, which is having its second wave." On February 29th Dr. Fauci was reported to say, one whole month after Japanese started using masks, hand washing and border controls: "“You’ve got to watch out because although the risk is low now, you don’t need to change anything you’re doing. When you start to see community spread, this could change and force you to become much more attentive to doing things that would protect you from spread." Show me in the six points, which one the "experts" themselves did not change their initial assessment by a lot?
Cigarbutt Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 Other complementary data about attitudes (bipartisan to some extent) concerning exit strategies: https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/493053-poll-voters-uncomfortable-with-going-to-most-places-when-social @DooDiligence "The only locations a majority of voters said they were comfortable returning to when restrictions are lifted were grocery stores, at 62 percent." @Gregmal New Jersey (is that where you live?) has quite a reputation for mosquitoes and some have suggested that it's because the state is "swampy". @Investor20 Lately and because of the virus, i've been meeting many ex-colleagues who invariably ask: how was it possible to retire in your early 40s? Because i made many mistakes. For interest: https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2020/04/24/566159.htm Humans have a tendency to converge and this polarization thing has to subside.
rb Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 Meanwhile, because his priorities are in order, Trump is trying to increase shipping rates to hurt Amazon (and everybody who order online) and bully the Washington Post during a time when everybody is ordering more online: Trump just told the press pool that the US Postal Service should raise its shipping prices by four times -- and as leverage he threatened to withhold a congressionally-approved emergency coronavirus loan to USPS https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/23/10-billion-treasury-loan-usps/ To illustrate what a monumentally stupid idea this is consider this mind blowing fact. Approval for USPS=+82, approval for DJT=-11. The USPS is consistently the most popular US gov't agency with an approval rating of 90%. When did 90% of Americans agree on anything? By the way the latest numbers are from 2019. Do you think the approval is up or down since COVID with everyone getting home delivery? Oh and while they're tripping over themselves to figure out how to bail out bankrupt oil companies, the USPS employs 4 times more people than O&G industry. This will work out about as well as injecting bleach. Sources: https://www.people-press.org/2019/10/01/public-expresses-favorable-views-of-a-number-of-federal-agencies/ https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES1021100001#0
KCLarkin Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 Investor20, the full context of that WHO article is: “ There are few reports of laboratory-confirmed cases who are truly asymptomatic, and to date, there has been no documented asymptomatic transmission. This does not exclude the possibility that it may occur. Asymptomatic cases have been reported as part of contact tracing efforts in some countries.”
Investor20 Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 Investor20, the full context of that WHO article is: “ There are few reports of laboratory-confirmed cases who are truly asymptomatic, and to date, there has been no documented asymptomatic transmission. This does not exclude the possibility that it may occur. Asymptomatic cases have been reported as part of contact tracing efforts in some countries.” That is not the context. That is the WHO statement on April 2nd : "There are few reports of laboratory-confirmed cases who are truly asymptomatic" January 27th article from Japan: Both countries have tightened border controls and quarantine checkpoints to screen passengers, although the fact that carriers of the virus may not show detectable symptoms has been a major cause of concern. https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/masks-out-as-japan-s-korea-report-new-cases How did Japanese and Koreans knew of asymptomic carriers in January 27th that WHO is not aware on April 2nd? Everyone knows Trump is not an epidemiologist or virologist. But we do expect WHO, CDC and Dr. Fauci to at least know what is happening in Korea and Japan as of January 27th (Japan and Korea already were worrying about asymptomatic carriers, wash hands, put border controls, use masks by Jan 27th)
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/24/coronavirus-trump-tries-to-walk-back-disinfectant-suggestion-claims-sarcasm.html Not to be worried, he was being sarcastic. Making a joke. Kind of like what he’s done w the Presidency and what you want in a President during a pandemic where 50k Americans are dead. Teflon Don strikes again, followers will lap it up “dur, he was just joking can’t you see that u libtards!”
Liberty Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/24/coronavirus-trump-tries-to-walk-back-disinfectant-suggestion-claims-sarcasm.html Not to be worried, he was being sarcastic. Making a joke. Kind of like what he’s done w the Presidency and what you want in a President during a pandemic where 50k Americans are dead. Teflon Don strikes again, followers will lap it up “dur, he was just joking can’t you see that u libtards!” Meanwhile, spin doctors like Scott Adams are claiming that Trump was actually making a sophisticated medical point, and Trump himself basically says he was talking about it, but was kidding. Video of Trump saying it was sarcastic: "Trump: I was asking the question sarcastically to reporters like you just to see what would happen..." *facepalm*
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/24/coronavirus-trump-tries-to-walk-back-disinfectant-suggestion-claims-sarcasm.html Not to be worried, he was being sarcastic. Making a joke. Kind of like what he’s done w the Presidency and what you want in a President during a pandemic where 50k Americans are dead. Teflon Don strikes again, followers will lap it up “dur, he was just joking can’t you see that u libtards!” Meanwhile, spin doctors like Scott Adams are claiming that Trump was actually making a sophisticated medical point, and Trump himself basically says he was talking about it, but was kidding. Kind of like if you deflect all the blame for your handling of the pandemic to the WHO and Governors. Either way, it’s a win-win.
arcube Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 Everyone knows Trump is not an epidemiologist or virologist. Hahaha.. The problem is that he does not know that he is not one.
Liberty Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 Wow. Not that we needed more evidence that this pathological narcissist only thinks of himself, but there it is. WASHINGTON — President Trump arrives in the Oval Office these days as late as noon, when he is usually in a sour mood after his morning marathon of television. He has been up in the White House master bedroom as early as 5 a.m. watching Fox News, then CNN, with a dollop of MSNBC thrown in for rage viewing. He makes calls with the TV on in the background, his routine since he first arrived at the White House. [...] The president sees few allies no matter which channel he clicks. He is angry even with Fox, an old security blanket, for not portraying him as he would like to be seen. And he makes time to watch Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo’s briefings from New York, closely monitoring for a sporadic compliment or snipe. Confined to the White House, the president is isolated from the supporters, visitors, travel and golf that once entertained him, according to more than a dozen administration officials and close advisers who spoke about Mr. Trump’s strange new life. He is tested weekly, as is Vice President Mike Pence, for Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. The economy — Mr. Trump’s main case for re-election — has imploded. News coverage of his handling of the coronavirus has been overwhelmingly negative as Democrats have condemned him for a lack of empathy, honesty and competence in the face of a pandemic. Even Republicans have criticized Mr. Trump’s briefings as long-winded and his rough handling of critics as unproductive. [...] Mr. Trump frequently vents about how he is portrayed. He was enraged by an article this month in which his health secretary, Alex M. Azar II, was said to have warned Mr. Trump in January about the possibility of a pandemic. Mr. Trump was upset that he was being blamed while Mr. Azar was portrayed in a more favorable light, aides said. [...] The daily White House coronavirus task force briefing is the one portion of the day that Mr. Trump looks forward to, although even Republicans say that the two hours of political attacks, grievances and falsehoods by the president are hurting him politically. Mr. Trump will hear none of it. Aides say he views them as prime-time shows that are the best substitute for the rallies he can no longer attend but craves. Mr. Trump rarely attends the task force meetings that precede the briefings, and he typically does not prepare before he steps in front of the cameras. He is often seeing the final version of the day’s main talking points that aides have prepared for him for the first time although aides said he makes tweaks with a Sharpie just before he reads them live With two hours of the president’s day dedicated to hosting what is still referred to as a prime-time news briefing, who is going to actually fix the pandemic? Even Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, one of the experts appointed to advise the president on the best way to handle the outbreak, has complained that the amount of time he must spend onstage in the briefings each day has a “draining” effect on him. That circle has shrunk significantly as the president, who advisers say is more sensitive to criticism than at nearly any other point in his presidency, has come to rely on only a handful of longtime aides. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/us/politics/coronavirus-trump.html Reddit comments that capture it well: "Mr. Trump rarely attends the task force meetings that precede the briefings, and he typically does not prepare before he steps in front of the cameras" "This is why you know the man is a fucking psychopath. Normal people have total panic attacks about being unprepared for something like an EMERGENCY LIVE NEWS BRIEFING FOR THE ENTIRE NATION ON A DEADLY PANDEMIC. Trump *enjoys* doing this, with no preparation at all, and it's basically the highllight of his day every day because he gets to be in charge of the briefing and the cameras are all on him. What he actually says isn't even important." "It's really difficult to understand just how different he is from 'normal' people. He's in a human skin but he doesn't have the same mental processes as the rest of us, not at all. All that matters is that *he* is the center of attention, for as many people as possible. Everything else is just noise. So while most of us would completely shit our pants at the thought of being grilled on live TV by journalists with millions of people watching, for Trump that's practically his idea of heaven. The actual topic, the questions, the details, none of this matters to him at all. All that matters is that everyone is focused on HIM." ">he hastily plows through them, usually in a monotone, in order to get to the question-and-answer bullying session with reporters that he relishes It's SO obvious that he does this. He literally sounds like he RESENTS getting through the legit/important stuff, like it is a literal waste of his time."
LC Posted April 24, 2020 Posted April 24, 2020 All Trump supporters please start injecting bleach intravenously asap, kk thx OK. Your sacrifice is appreciated. We will remember you fondly. You guys are really fucked in US if this is the typical attitude of a non Trump supporter. Start a civil war, already. Just in case it needs to be said: Do not put household disinfectants into your body ;D
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