RichardGibbons Posted April 5, 2020 Posted April 5, 2020 So barring a treatment or vaccine which could be months. if not years away it is hard not to be pessimistic as to how we resolve this any time soon. I'm actually pretty optimistic, not based on a return to complete normal, but rather a return to normalcy. I think the frequently posted Hammer and Dance article describes nicely what can happen. If you take the Hammer and Dance article as the medium-term objective, you just need to look for ways to reduce the impact on lives. Based on results in Asian countries, everyone wearing masks dramatically reduces the R0. That makes the dance phase much easier. What's more, as each week goes by, we add to our knowledge of how to treat this disease. If we can reduce the transmissibility through masks and reduce the severity and length of time in hospital through new treatments, then we're basically back to the flu. So, I think there's a decent chance we're in a normal--with the addition of people wearing masks--by July.
Viking Posted April 5, 2020 Posted April 5, 2020 So barring a treatment or vaccine which could be months. if not years away it is hard not to be pessimistic as to how we resolve this any time soon. I'm actually pretty optimistic, not based on a return to complete normal, but rather a return to normalcy. I think the frequently posted Hammer and Dance article describes nicely what can happen. If you take the Hammer and Dance article as the medium-term objective, you just need to look for ways to reduce the impact on lives. Based on results in Asian countries, everyone wearing masks dramatically reduces the R0. That makes the dance phase much easier. What's more, as each week goes by, we add to our knowledge of how to treat this disease. If we can reduce the transmissibility through masks and reduce the severity and length of time in hospital through new treatments, then we're basically back to the flu. So, I think there's a decent chance we're in a normal--with the addition of people wearing masks--by July. What about group activities (sports and work). I was surprised to read Trumps meeting with sports executives were discussing Aug or Sept as the targeted start up. That means 4.5 months (or more) of lock down for these groups. The length of time the virus will be crimping economic activity keeps getting extended out. This tells me the economic impact is still being underestimated and perhaps significantly so. Analyzing the Legal Hurdles of Bringing Back Sports President Donald Trump told sports executives that he wants leagues to resume with spectators by August or September. However, most of the logistics to return to play are out of his control. https://www.si.com/nba/2020/04/04/legal-hurdles-sports-returning-coronavirus-trump
randomep Posted April 5, 2020 Posted April 5, 2020 From Iceland link: Confirmed infections: 1417 Total samples: 23640 (1417/23640) * 100 = 5.99%. How are you getting 0.3%? Assuming your random sampling comment is correct, 6% of Iceland being infected with a swab test that does not even tell people who are already infected, nonsymptomatic and cleared of virus in a country we dont consider to have Covid outbreak is pretty high. All the tests done were looking for the presence of the virus. The true test for this statistic is looking for the virus antibody. This test would show if you have been exposed in the past and now have immunity. The former test would only classify you as negative which implies you are not ever exposed. So it way under reports number of people exposed.
randomep Posted April 5, 2020 Posted April 5, 2020 So barring a treatment or vaccine which could be months. if not years away it is hard not to be pessimistic as to how we resolve this any time soon. I'm actually pretty optimistic, not based on a return to complete normal, but rather a return to normalcy. I think the frequently posted Hammer and Dance article describes nicely what can happen. If you take the Hammer and Dance article as the medium-term objective, you just need to look for ways to reduce the impact on lives. Based on results in Asian countries, everyone wearing masks dramatically reduces the R0. That makes the dance phase much easier. What's more, as each week goes by, we add to our knowledge of how to treat this disease. If we can reduce the transmissibility through masks and reduce the severity and length of time in hospital through new treatments, then we're basically back to the flu. So, I think there's a decent chance we're in a normal--with the addition of people wearing masks--by July. Ya and wouldn't it be shocking if Trump was at least partially right? That we may be blowing this a bit out of porportion? I am not ruling that out.
RichardGibbons Posted April 5, 2020 Posted April 5, 2020 What about group activities (sports and work). For me, work would certainly be included in the mask-wearing normalcy. I'm not sure about sporting events--I think it depends on how effective masks are at reducing the R0 in such venues. I suppose international travel falls into this category as well. That said, to me, the normalcy that matters is work. The economy is a big deal, and if we can get back to a normal-ish economy (including malls, restaurants and most service businesses, but maybe not including theatre, sports and other events that bring together groups of hundreds of people), then I feel like we'd have a good degree of economic and health stability. Basically, we should aim for South Korea without the creepy mobile phone tracking.
RichardGibbons Posted April 5, 2020 Posted April 5, 2020 Ya and wouldn't it be shocking if Trump was at least partially right? That we may be blowing this a bit out of porportion? Nah, Trump's already been proven wrong. If there's a hurricane, and everyone boards up their windows and takes shelter, and few people die, it would be pretty stupid to say, "Hey, the deaths in the last hurricane weren't that bad--the threat was way overblown. So let's just ignore the hurricane the next time."
arcube Posted April 5, 2020 Posted April 5, 2020 Something to keep in mind for the future. This is really interesting. We will all have to be more cautious than we ever were.
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 5, 2020 Posted April 5, 2020 So barring a treatment or vaccine which could be months. if not years away it is hard not to be pessimistic as to how we resolve this any time soon. I'm actually pretty optimistic, not based on a return to complete normal, but rather a return to normalcy. I think the frequently posted Hammer and Dance article describes nicely what can happen. If you take the Hammer and Dance article as the medium-term objective, you just need to look for ways to reduce the impact on lives. Based on results in Asian countries, everyone wearing masks dramatically reduces the R0. That makes the dance phase much easier. What's more, as each week goes by, we add to our knowledge of how to treat this disease. If we can reduce the transmissibility through masks and reduce the severity and length of time in hospital through new treatments, then we're basically back to the flu. So, I think there's a decent chance we're in a normal--with the addition of people wearing masks--by July. Ya and wouldn't it be shocking if Trump was at least partially right? That we may be blowing this a bit out of porportion? I am not ruling that out. Well if Trump is right, he gets all the credit. If he is wrong, it's Obama's fault because he wouldn't be President if it weren't for Obama. He has successfully passed the buck to his predecessor (among his followers). Real 8-D chess over here. Really how he has operated since birth--he gets all the upside, others the downside (the buck stops...). Kind of like what he wants for the oil industry.
mcliu Posted April 5, 2020 Posted April 5, 2020 Earlier this week, officials in both Germany and France accused the U.S. of diverting medical supplies meant for their respective countries by outbidding the original buyers. On Friday, officials in Berlin alleged that the U.S. intercepted a shipment of medical equipment in Thailand from American medical supply company 3M and diverted it to the U.S., the German newspaper Der Tagesspiegel reported. Berlin's interior minister called the alleged interception "modern piracy." U.S. gets to reap the benefits of having global corporate powerhouse firms like 3M that have moats and sell all over the world. Actions like this undermine those companies and longstanding relationships with Germany/France (NATO allies which are not valued these days). As was mentioned on here, actions like this should merely encourage Germany and France to cut out 3M in the future and grow their own in house firms. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/04/04/coronavirus-latest-news/#link-GQ4VHJ7T2ZGQPD3VUWO5W6QZRU Berlin backtracks after accusing U.S. of ‘piracy’ when 200,000 masks went missing A Berlin official, who accused the U.S. administration of “piracy” after 200,000 masks for the city police went missing, backtracked Saturday and said the masks were ordered from a German firm. In a statement distributed by the city mayor’s office and senate a day earlier, Andreas Geisel, Berlin’s senator for the interior, was quoted as saying a delivery of FFP2 masks only made it as far as Bangkok before it was “confiscated.” ... But Geisel wrote on Twitter on Saturday that he had clarified that the order was placed with a German firm and that supply chain issues were being “reviewed.” In a statement earlier Saturday, 3M had denied German news reports that it was the supplier in question.
cwericb Posted April 5, 2020 Posted April 5, 2020 “Really how he has operated since birth--he gets all the upside, others the downside (the buck stops...).” “The buck stops here” Harry Truman “Ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country ”Jack Kennedy “I don’t understand wind” Donnie Trump
ERICOPOLY Posted April 5, 2020 Posted April 5, 2020 When the news tells us that another perfectly healthy person has died of COVID-19, how can we be comfortable that the reporting is accurate? One-Third of Adults with Diabetes Still Don’t Know They Have It https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/one-third-adults-diabetes-still-dont-know-they-have-it About 2.8 percent of U.S. adults — one-third of those with diabetes — still don’t know they have it. And what percentage of infected US adults are being killed by COVID-19?
cubsfan Posted April 5, 2020 Posted April 5, 2020 “Really how he has operated since birth--he gets all the upside, others the downside (the buck stops...).” “The buck stops here” Harry Truman “Ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country ”Jack Kennedy “I don’t understand wind” Donnie Trump You guys are funny actually. If you haven't noticed, Donald Trump is clearly in charge here. Worse yet for you - his poll numbers are at an all time high right now. You get to suck on that for a while. Too bad. Reason: Americans are glued to his daily crisis briefings. They are seeing a leader clearly in charge attempting to navigate the biggest crisis of their lives - while you and the fake news second guess him. Americans are on to your pettiness and vitriol. I know it's tough for you to swallow - but hey, so was the Russia Hoax, the Ukraine impeachment joke, the Kavanaugh hearings, etc. No wonder Rachel Maddow and The NY Times editorial staff are DEMANDING that the Trump daily briefings be stopped. Trump is sucking all the oxygen out of the Biden room. Sorry fellas, I know the truth hurts.
ERICOPOLY Posted April 5, 2020 Posted April 5, 2020 You get to suck on that for a while. Here it comes... Americans are on to your pettiness and vitriol.
Gregmal Posted April 5, 2020 Posted April 5, 2020 This tells you all you need to know about some folks and outlets. Actively rooting against America and going out of their way to use a crisis to blatantly misrepresent everything they can in order to make a president they don’t like, look bad. Too many stories to mention but what’s the count now of the misrepresented stories? The latest being the “commandeered shipments in Germany”, just prior the whole sending equipment out of the country ban; while leaving our that 68 other countries already set precedent. And this is just the last 3 days...
cubsfan Posted April 5, 2020 Posted April 5, 2020 You get to suck on that for a while. Here it comes... Americans are on to your pettiness and vitriol. Sorry about the Kafka nightmare for you...you just hate it when it gets turned around to you.
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 5, 2020 Posted April 5, 2020 We know the formula: When you criticize a Republican President's terrible response to a pandemic that he minimized repeatedly, you "root for America to fail". When you literally hope for failure in a Democratic President, you deserve the Medal of Freedom: I Hope Obama Fails. --Rush Limbaugh, January 2009 (when America was in the throes of the GFC).
randomep Posted April 5, 2020 Posted April 5, 2020 Well if Trump is right, he gets all the credit. If he is wrong, it's Obama's fault because he wouldn't be President if it weren't for Obama. He has successfully passed the buck to his predecessor (among his followers). Real 8-D chess over here. Really how he has operated since birth--he gets all the upside, others the downside (the buck stops...). Kind of like what he wants for the oil industry. ya in that sense Trump is the ultimate con man. HOWEVER, I am not talking really about Trump I am just referring to this extreme tyranny of the politically correct morally superior , intellectually better attitude of left wing groups. It is very difficult to dissent, the verbal harassment and pressure will put anyone off. And the level of group think in higher education and business life is just too much and that's why guys like Buffett and Munger and Gates standout so much because the vast vast majority of the world are group thinkers. They think for us. Now I believe the majority attitude is ok let's err on the side of caution, so what if we overreact. But i think there are costs to going overboard with this global shut down thing. I just think the evidence better be compelling for the showdown to go on longer than 1 or 2 months, or else people are going to lose respect for government and authority and just disobey the orders.
Gregmal Posted April 5, 2020 Posted April 5, 2020 We know the formula: When you criticize a Republican President's terrible response to a pandemic that he minimized repeatedly, you "root for America to fail". When you literally hope for failure in a Democratic President, you deserve the Medal of Freedom: I Hope Obama Fails. --Rush Limbaugh, January 2009 (when America was in the throes of the GFC). Its telling that there biggest mess here is the cesspool called NYC where you live. You've got your mayor and your governor, both whom have handled things vastly differently. Both of whom you elected. And you blame Trump....
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 5, 2020 Posted April 5, 2020 We know the formula: When you criticize a Republican President's terrible response to a pandemic that he minimized repeatedly, you "root for America to fail". When you literally hope for failure in a Democratic President, you deserve the Medal of Freedom: I Hope Obama Fails. --Rush Limbaugh, January 2009 (when America was in the throes of the GFC). Its telling that there biggest mess here is the cesspool called NYC where you live. You've got your mayor and your governor, both whom have handled things vastly differently. Both of whom you elected. And you blame Trump.... Here you are "rooting for America". What a patriot.
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 5, 2020 Posted April 5, 2020 I haven't seen Flu outbreak do something like this: Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been admitted to hospital 11 days after confirming he had contracted #coronavirus. Hope he's ok.
cwericb Posted April 5, 2020 Posted April 5, 2020 "Now I believe the majority attitude is ok let's err on the side of caution, so what if we overreact." Absolutely. This seems to be what some don't seem to understand. Overreaction will be expensive. Underreaction will kill people. This is new unexplored territory and no one knows how it will work out so it is better to overreact than underreact.
Gregmal Posted April 5, 2020 Posted April 5, 2020 We know the formula: When you criticize a Republican President's terrible response to a pandemic that he minimized repeatedly, you "root for America to fail". When you literally hope for failure in a Democratic President, you deserve the Medal of Freedom: I Hope Obama Fails. --Rush Limbaugh, January 2009 (when America was in the throes of the GFC). Its telling that there biggest mess here is the cesspool called NYC where you live. You've got your mayor and your governor, both whom have handled things vastly differently. Both of whom you elected. And you blame Trump.... Here you are "rooting for America". What a patriot. How am I not? Ive stated plenty off times that now isn't the time to be bitching and moaning and playing politics... I just find it odd how the above works. If you want to assign blame how do you not even mention two guys you elected, responsible for running your city, that have more than their share of "issues"? Its just inconsistent
cubsfan Posted April 5, 2020 Posted April 5, 2020 We know the formula: When you criticize a Republican President's terrible response to a pandemic that he minimized repeatedly, you "root for America to fail". When you literally hope for failure in a Democratic President, you deserve the Medal of Freedom: I Hope Obama Fails. --Rush Limbaugh, January 2009 (when America was in the throes of the GFC). Its telling that there biggest mess here is the cesspool called NYC where you live. You've got your mayor and your governor, both whom have handled things vastly differently. Both of whom you elected. And you blame Trump.... Hey don't knock it - at least they are politically correct!
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 5, 2020 Posted April 5, 2020 We know the formula: When you criticize a Republican President's terrible response to a pandemic that he minimized repeatedly, you "root for America to fail". When you literally hope for failure in a Democratic President, you deserve the Medal of Freedom: I Hope Obama Fails. --Rush Limbaugh, January 2009 (when America was in the throes of the GFC). Its telling that there biggest mess here is the cesspool called NYC where you live. You've got your mayor and your governor, both whom have handled things vastly differently. Both of whom you elected. And you blame Trump.... Here you are "rooting for America". What a patriot. How am I not? Ive stated plenty off times that now isn't the time to be bitching and moaning and playing politics... I just find it odd how the above works. If you want to assign blame how do you not even mention two guys you elected, responsible for running your city, that have more than their share of "issues"? Its just inconsistent I've already criticized De Blasio and praised Cuomo (who is doing a much better job than terrible NYC mayor or POTUS): Yeah, De Blasio also managed this terribly. Nice try bud. And we know the formula any way: Covid bad outcome: blame local leaders Covid good outcome: POTUS gets credit Asymmetry!
cubsfan Posted April 5, 2020 Posted April 5, 2020 You are funny today - you spend all your time slamming Trump, with nary a mention of De Blasio. But Trump is responsible for the NYC nightmare!
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