Fairfax stock positions

[StubbleJumper]

18 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

Equity/stock investments will fluctuate, but it will be nice to see how much recurring interest income they are generating now.  They must have put more money into even higher yielding bonds.  It will be interesting to see the insurance losses for the two storms and is insurance still powering through.  Cheers!

 

Agreed on both.  I would add that the *really* interesting thing will be to see what they've done with duration.

 

 

SJ

[Viking]

1 hour ago, StubbleJumper said:

@Viking  Thanks for the update on the equities.  It provides a more precise view of what we knew was going on -- there will be a mark-to-market loss reported when Q3 gets published in November, and then the benefit of the takeovers won't likely show up until Q1 2023.  So, the headline EPS number will have a M2M loss on equities of $310m, and then looking at the fixed income sensitivity table published on page 20 of the Q2, a 100 bps parallel shift in the yield curve would be a mark-to-market hit to the bond portfolio of $263.2m.  Call it a M2M loss on investments of $500-600m when the numbers are released.

 

The headline numbers won't be pretty, but maybe it'll set up FFH to initiate a buyback at favourable prices.

 

SJ

Stubble, yes, Q3 reported results could be ugly:

1.) mark to market equities    -$350

- my estimates are usually light (of whatever the trend is)

2.) mark to market bonds      -$500

- i think the move in rates was larger than Q1 or Q2. In Q2 the loss from bonds was +$400 million?

3.) hit from hurricane Ian could be substantial; RBC is saying large size of losses could hit reinsurers like Fairfax hard.

- this will be the big unknown going into earnings. 
———-—

Looking past Q3 earnings we will have BV with:

1.) equities valued at close to bear market lows

2.) bonds valued at close to 4% treasury yields across the curve

3.) hard market in reinsurance

Bottom line, book value will have digested pretty momentous changes in financial markets. If Fairfax has been able extend duration the earnings power of the company will be very good. And the opportunity to grow book value will be large. 
—————

i think you were thinking FFH could get to US$450 during hurricane season… well done! Perhaps we see US$400 if Mr Market does not like Q3 results and the overall market continues to sell off. One can hope. I am back up to 40% cash and would love to add to my position  The fly in the ointment to getting a much lower share price might be the pet insurance business closing. That could be a big catalyst for shares. When they did the deal Fairfax said 2H closure. During Q2 conference call i think Prem said ‘next quarter’. 

 

Edited October 3, 2022 by Viking

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, StubbleJumper said:

 

Agreed on both.  I would add that the *really* interesting thing will be to see what they've done with duration.

 

 

SJ

 

Yes, I'm really interested to see if they've gone longer or are staying short-term...and how much are they putting into each duration.  Cheers!

[TwoCitiesCapital]

1 hour ago, Parsad said:

 

Yes, I'm really interested to see if they've gone longer or are staying short-term...and how much are they putting into each duration.  Cheers!

 

Fingers are crossed. Back in June the 10-year was @ 3.5ish. Now it's 3.65ish. not much change for the 1.50% in hikes that occurred in the interim (with obvious fluctuations both higher/lower during that time). 

 

We might be close to seeing the highs on the long-end at least if the last 3 months is any guide so hopefully they take the cue and start locking this in for the pivot that the market expects in 2023. 

[Crip1]

14 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

Fingers are crossed. Back in June the 10-year was @ 3.5ish. Now it's 3.65ish. not much change for the 1.50% in hikes that occurred in the interim (with obvious fluctuations both higher/lower during that time). 

 

We might be close to seeing the highs on the long-end at least if the last 3 months is any guide so hopefully they take the cue and start locking this in for the pivot that the market expects in 2023. 

I'd be happy with cash put to work with 2-year treasuries...don't see the benefit of pushing durations out appreciably longer at this point.

 

-Crip

[TwoCitiesCapital]

53 minutes ago, Crip1 said:

I'd be happy with cash put to work with 2-year treasuries...don't see the benefit of pushing durations out appreciably longer at this point.

 

-Crip

 

The benefit will be when the Fed pivots and rates go back to zero. We had very little interest income from 2016 - 2021 because of the move to short term bonds and the missing of the last Fed pivot. 5-years we've paid the price of having very little income on tens of billions of dollars on bonds because 2-year bonds were reinvested at essentially 0% rates when they came due. 

 

All I'm asking is that they lock in a portion of it this time around. They don't have to dump the entire portfolio into long treasuries, but I don't want another 5-years of zero interest income if the Fed pivots again.  

 

They've missed most of the pain in fixed income markets this year. They should congratulate themselves and lock some of that in by extending duration to ~4-5 years at this point IMO. They could do that with a bond ladder extending our to 10-15 years and not be taking undue duration risk. 

Edited October 4, 2022 by TwoCitiesCapital

[SafetyinNumbers]

On 9/15/2022 at 9:34 AM, SafetyinNumbers said:

Does anyone else wish there was a listed options for FFH on the Montreal Exchange?

 

Apparently, the MX has a monthly listings meeting so maybe if they get enough requests they will list eventually list them so I sent them an email. If anyone else wants to it’s: 

 

[email protected]

 

I also asked a few of my brokers to request FFH listed options. I figure it doesn’t hurt to have a few participants also request listed options. I’m not sure if any of them will want to make a market though.

I heard back from the MX. They say FFH is not liquid enough for listed options. 

[glider3834]

Would be good to get some more info on Grivalia Hospitality 

 

• On July 5, 2022 the company increased its interest in Grivalia Hospitality S.A. ("Grivalia Hospitality") to 78.4% from 33.5% by acquiring additional shares for cash consideration of $194.6 million (€190.0 million). The company will commence consolidating Grivalia Hospitality in the third quarter of 2022. Grivalia Hospitality acquires, develops and manages hospitality real estate in Greece, Cyprus and Panama.

 

Fairfax picked up an additional 45% stake that would value the equity at USD 430 mil approx

 

I saw this article below that suggests a valuation for the portfolio when these luxury hotels are completed - could there be NAV upside? It is unclear what the cost to complete & capital position will be - we just don't have enough data here.

 

'Today the company's portfolio (Amanzoe, One&Only Aesthesis in Asteria Glyfadas, ON Residence, Avantmar in Paros, etc.) includes ultra-luxury tourism projects with a value exceeding 510 million euros and when those under development are completed, this value will exceeds 1.1 billion euros.'

https://www.moneyreview.gr/business-and-finance/business/91384/oloklirothike-i-metafora-edras-tis-grivalia-hospitality-stin-ellada/

 

 

 

 

 

Edited October 24, 2022 by glider3834

[glider3834]

45 minutes ago, glider3834 said:

Would be good to get some more info on Grivalia Hospitality 

 

• On July 5, 2022 the company increased its interest in Grivalia Hospitality S.A. ("Grivalia Hospitality") to 78.4% from 33.5% by acquiring additional shares for cash consideration of $194.6 million (€190.0 million). The company will commence consolidating Grivalia Hospitality in the third quarter of 2022. Grivalia Hospitality acquires, develops and manages hospitality real estate in Greece, Cyprus and Panama.

 

Fairfax picked up an additional 45% stake that would value the equity at USD 430 mil approx

 

I saw this article below that suggests a valuation for the portfolio when these luxury hotels are completed - could there be NAV upside? It is unclear what the cost to complete & capital position will be - we just don't have enough data here.

 

'Today the company's portfolio (Amanzoe, One&Only Aesthesis in Asteria Glyfadas, ON Residence, Avantmar in Paros, etc.) includes ultra-luxury tourism projects with a value exceeding 510 million euros and when those under development are completed, this value will exceeds 1.1 billion euros.'

https://www.moneyreview.gr/business-and-finance/business/91384/oloklirothike-i-metafora-edras-tis-grivalia-hospitality-stin-ellada/

 

 

 

 

 

I found this https://greekvalueinvestingcentre.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/1.George-Chryssikos-The_Grivalia_Story-1.pdf

 

[Viking]

20 hours ago, glider3834 said:

I found this https://greekvalueinvestingcentre.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/1.George-Chryssikos-The_Grivalia_Story-1.pdf

 

Glider, thanks for posting. I have been trying to understand Grivalia Properties difference from Grivalia Hospitality and this helps. Some takeaways:

1.) on page 8 of the presentation you linked they summarized what Fairfax earned on their investment in Grivalia Properties = 24% per year (2011-2020). From initial purchase to when Grivalia Properties were merged with Eurobank. Not too shabby. 

2.) I wonder what else Fairfax owns that we know nothing about. Prior to the Q2 release i never knew they owned a large chunk of Grivalia Hospitality. 
- From the Q2 release: “On July 5, 2022 the company increased its interest in Grivalia Hospitality S.A. ("Grivalia Hospitality") to 78.4% from 33.5% by acquiring additional shares for cash consideration of $194.6 million (€190.0 million). The company will commence consolidating Grivalia Hospitality in the third quarter of 2022. Grivalia Hospitality acquires, develops and manages hospitality real estate in Greece, Cyprus and Panama.”

3.) with a total value of about $340 million, Grivalia Hospitality is now a top 10 equity investment for Fairfax. It is worth about what Stelco is worth. 
4.) the new investment spend of $195 million on Grivalia Hospitality is significant: 
- take advantage of weak Euro (to US$)

- increase exposure to real estate - considered a good inflation hedge

- hospitality segment - high net worth individuals (any trophy properties?)
5.) The majority of Fairfax’s new investment spend in 2022 is going to increasing positions in businesses they already own a large stake in and therefore understand exceptionally well:

- Fairfax India - $65 million ($12/share)

- John Keels - $75 million (convertible debenture)

- Grivalia Hospitality - $195 million

- Recipe take private - @ US$330 million?

- Allied World - reduce minority interest; funded with $750 million in debt

- Fairfax has also exercised warrants to increase stakes in Ensign Energy and Altius Minerals

- Fairfax shares - my guess is we will see buybacks increase in Q4 2022 (once pet insurance deal closes Oct 31). 

So Fairfax has been greedy during the current bear market. In companies it understands very well. At what look to be attractive prices (some look very attractive).

Edited October 24, 2022 by Viking

[Viking]

Recipe take private has received shareholder approval and should be completed Oct 28. That was quick! Another outstanding piece of business at Fairfax getting completed prior to the Q3 earnings release (along with pet insurance sale). Lots to discuss on the conference call. FYI, last year Fairfax released results on Nov 4, 2021.

—————-

My guess is Recipe will post pretty good results in Q3. This is the first quarter since 2019 that results at full service restaurants in Canada were not significantly impacted by covid (primarily lockdowns). It will be interesting to see how Recipe performs for Fairfax in the coming years… how much cash does it generate? 
—————-— 

- https://recipeunlimited.investorroom.com/2022-10-21-RECIPE-UNLIMITED-OBTAINS-SHAREHOLDER-APPROVAL-FOR-GOING-PRIVATE-TRANSACTION-WITH-FAIRFAX-FINANCIAL-HOLDINGS-LIMITED

 

TORONTO, Oct. 21, 2022 /CNW/ - Recipe Unlimited Corporation ("Recipe" or the "Company") (TSX: RECP) announced today that at the Company's special meeting (the "Meeting") of its shareholders (the "Shareholders") held earlier today, an overwhelming majority of Shareholders voted in favour of the special resolution (the "Arrangement Resolution") approving the previously announced statutory plan of arrangement involving the Company and 1000297337 Ontario Inc. (the "Purchaser"), a newly-formed subsidiary of Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited ("FFHL"), pursuant to which the Purchaser will acquire all of the issued and outstanding multiple voting shares ("MVS") and subordinate voting shares ("SVS", and together with MVS, the "Shares") in the capital of the Company (other than those Shares owned by FFHL and its affiliates (collectively, "Fairfax") and 9,398,729 MVS owned by Cara Holdings Limited ("CHL")) at a price of $20.73 in cash per Share, subject to the terms and conditions of the arrangement agreement dated August 31, 2022 (the "Arrangement Agreement") between the Company, the Purchaser and FFHL (the "Arrangement").

 

Recipe anticipates returning to the Ontario Superior Court of Justice (Commercial List) (the "Court") on October 25, 2022 to seek a final order of the court approving the Arrangement. Completion of the Arrangement remains subject to closing conditions as set forth in the Arrangement Agreement, including approval of the Court. Assuming that the conditions to closing are satisfied or waived (if permitted), it is expected that the Arrangement will be completed on or about October 28, 2022. Following completion of the going private transaction, Recipe will be de-listed from the Toronto Stock Exchange and applications will be made for Recipe to cease to be a reporting issuer.

 

 

Edited October 24, 2022 by Viking

[glider3834]

7 hours ago, Viking said:

4.) the new investment spend of $195 million on Grivalia Hospitality is significant: 
- take advantage of weak Euro (to US$)

- increase exposure to real estate - considered a good inflation hedge

- hospitality segment - high net worth individuals (any trophy properties?)

yes agree also some tailwinds for this business

- 2022 tourism revenues surpassed 2019 in Greece https://greekreporter.com/2022/10/17/greece-october-tourism/

- Greek economy one of the best in Europe in terms of GDP growth- even although 2023 will be tougher https://www.ekathimerini.com/economy/1195395/imf-sees-greece-outperforming/

- real estate in Greece is seeing record foreign investment in 2022 https://greekreporter.com/2022/10/21/golden-visa-greece/

 

 

 

[glider3834]

3Q result was interesting with Exco - its been a wild ride - Fairfax's share of profit

 

1Q  38M

2Q  (38.5)

3Q  43.5

 

4Q? 

 

Exco have hedges rolling off so I am thinking that is affecting results in this topsy turvy way, but the next 12 months hopefully will benefit from the stronger 12mth natural gas strip pricing we saw in 2022 vs 2021.

 

Strip pricing has come back off its highs for 2022 now at $5.35 for next 12mths but still above the 2021 avg and IMH0 outlook still constructive for natural gas - the energy problems are far from solved in Europe https://www.iea.org/news/europe-needs-to-take-immediate-action-to-avoid-risk-of-natural-gas-shortage-next-year 

 

Edited November 4, 2022 by glider3834

[Xerxes]

See this new thread by Spek

 

There is a bit about the “Grivalia story”. Perhaps Video becomes available at a certain point.

https://greekvalueinvestingcentre.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/1.George-Chryssikos-The_Grivalia_Story-1.pdf

Keynote Speaker

Presenter: George Chryssikos, Vice Chairman, Non-Executive Director of the BoD, Eurobank Group, Athens, Greece
Topic:  “The Grivalia Story”

View PowerPoint Presentation
Video Not Available Yet

Edited November 7, 2022 by Xerxes

[nwoodman]

The MS analyst Nida Iqbal recently updated her model (attached) for Eurobank who report Q3 results later today (10th November).  She is tipping EUR0.045 EPS.  The shares have run up a bit (EUR1.071) over the last month, and the current Market Cap is $3.87B and is much closer to FFH's carrying value.   Eurobank's management has previously flagged they will recommence divs 

 

"The bank’s business plan for 2022-24 set a target of 13% average earnings per share growth per year and more than 100 basis points of capital generation annually out of profits.

The bank will begin to pay dividends out of this year’s earnings, with the planned payout ratio seen at around 20%, it said."

 

This is likely to be in the range EUR0.05-0.06 per share. Shares Out 3.71B.  This should deliver around 0.05x3710*0.322=60-70m of cashflow from divs. Nothing to sneeze at and if you take the view that the USD is overvalued it might be even sweeter. 

 

 

Purchasing Power Parity (ubc.ca)

 

Perhaps not their greatest investment but one that looks like it will soon be paying its way.  

 

EUROBANK_20221102_0000.pdf Eurobank Model 10-11-22.xlsm

[nwoodman]

15 hours ago, nwoodman said:

The MS analyst Nida Iqbal recently updated her model (attached) for Eurobank who report Q3 results later today (10th November).  She is tipping EUR0.045 EPS.  The shares have run up a bit (EUR1.071) over the last month, and the current Market Cap is $3.87B and is much closer to FFH's carrying value.   Eurobank's management has previously flagged they will recommence divs 

 

"The bank’s business plan for 2022-24 set a target of 13% average earnings per share growth per year and more than 100 basis points of capital generation annually out of profits.

The bank will begin to pay dividends out of this year’s earnings, with the planned payout ratio seen at around 20%, it said."

 

This is likely to be in the range EUR0.05-0.06 per share. Shares Out 3.71B.  This should deliver around 0.05x3710*0.322=60-70m of cashflow from divs. Nothing to sneeze at and if you take the view that the USD is overvalued it might be even sweeter. 

 

 

Purchasing Power Parity (ubc.ca)

 

Perhaps not their greatest investment but one that looks like it will soon be paying its way.  

 

EUROBANK_20221102_0000.pdf 363.63 kB · 0 downloads Eurobank Model 10-11-22.xlsm 4.5 MB · 0 downloads

Results in line

https://www.eurobankholdings.gr/-/media/holding/omilos/grafeio-tupou/etairikes-anakoinoseis/2022/3q-2022/3q2022-results-presentation.pdf

 

EPS €0.04

TBV €1.64 +14% YoY

NPE 5.6%

 

All headed in the right direction

[glider3834]

1 hour ago, nwoodman said:

Results in line

https://www.eurobankholdings.gr/-/media/holding/omilos/grafeio-tupou/etairikes-anakoinoseis/2022/3q-2022/3q2022-results-presentation.pdf

 

EPS €0.04

TBV €1.64 +14% YoY

NPE 5.6%

 

All headed in the right direction

Yep looks like they are guiding normalised EPS €0.17 on €1.09 share price - 15% yield - thats decent 

Edited November 10, 2022 by glider3834

[Viking]

Here is a mid quarter update on Fairfax's equity holdings. As a reminder, Fairfax has an investment portfolio of about $51 billion = about $36 billion in fixed income and $15 billion in 'equities' (loosely defined). So how is the $15 billion in equities performing so far in Q4? Pretty well. Total increase = $875 million. Of this, about $340 million is mark-to-market = $14.40/share. All numbers are pre-tax. If we get a continuation of the current rally into year end, we should see a nice rebound in the valuation of Fairfax's equity holdings.

 

Movers:

1.) Eurobank +$313 million

2.) Atlas        +$178

3.) FFH TRS  +$158

 

PS: please let me know if you see any material errors in the Excel spreadsheet attached below.

Fairfax Equity Holdings Nov 10 2022.xlsx

[nwoodman]

45 minutes ago, glider3834 said:

Yep looks like they are guiding normalised EPS €0.17 on €1.09 share price - 15% yield - thats decent 

Indeed.  While no Bank of Ireland, which was a relative sugar hit in terms of timing. Eurobank has a more meat and potatoes feel about it.

 

This was a big call, and I know Prem is always talking his book, but ya never know.  The Macro charts at the end of the Eurobank pres, look promising

 

 

[Viking]

4 hours ago, nwoodman said:

Results in line

https://www.eurobankholdings.gr/-/media/holding/omilos/grafeio-tupou/etairikes-anakoinoseis/2022/3q-2022/3q2022-results-presentation.pdf

 

EPS €0.04

TBV €1.64 +14% YoY

NPE 5.6%

 

All headed in the right direction

@nwoodman and @glider3834 thanks for the links/comments on Eurobank. It looks to me like the turnaround at Eurobank was largely finished in 2021. We are now seeing the bank execute. The management team has done a great job, especially the last few years. I am still amazed at how opportunistic they were in getting non-performing loans significantly lower over the last 2 years (while the market was open to those type of transactions). Smart buggers. 
 

Prem has stated the expectation at Fairfax is that all equity holdings will deliver returns of 15% per year. This looks achievable for Eurobank. This is great news for Fairfax shareholders as Eurobank is Fairfax’s second largest equity holding with a value today of $1.3 billion (9% share of Fairfax’s total equity book). 15% return = @$200 million benefit to Fairfax = $9/Fairfax share (pretax). 
 

The expected slowdown in the economies of Europe over the next 6 months will likely be a headwind for Greece and Eurobank. But as we get to the other side (late 2023?) Eurobank certainly looks well positioned. 
—————

Morgan Stanley is estimating Eurobank will earn about €0.19/share in 2023 and €$.20/share in 2024. PE of 5.5? Wow. 

Edited November 11, 2022 by Viking

[MMM20]

2 hours ago, Viking said:

PE of 5.5? Wow. 

 

I keep saying the same about Fairfax.

[glider3834]

2 hours ago, Viking said:

@nwoodman and @glider3834 thanks for the links/comments on Eurobank. It looks to me like the turnaround at Eurobank was largely finished in 2021. We are now seeing the bank execute. The management team has done a great job, especially the last few years. I am still amazed at how opportunistic they were in getting non-performing loans significantly lower over the last 2 years (while the market was open to those type of transactions). Smart buggers. 
 

Prem has stated the expectation at Fairfax is that all equity holdings will deliver returns of 15% per year. This looks achievable for Eurobank. This is great news for Fairfax shareholders as Eurobank is Fairfax’s second largest equity holding with a value today of $1.3 billion (9% share of Fairfax’s total equity book). 15% return = @$200 million benefit to Fairfax = $9/Fairfax share (pretax). 
 

The expected slowdown in the economies of Europe over the next 6 months will likely be a headwind for Greece and Eurobank. But as we get to the other side (late 2023?) Eurobank certainly looks well positioned. 
—————

Morgan Stanley is estimating Eurobank will earn about €0.19/share in 2023 and €$.20/share in 2024. PE of 5.5? Wow. 

just on Greece saw this

 

Edited November 11, 2022 by glider3834

[glider3834]

4 hours ago, Viking said:

Here is a mid quarter update on Fairfax's equity holdings. As a reminder, Fairfax has an investment portfolio of about $51 billion = about $36 billion in fixed income and $15 billion in 'equities' (loosely defined). So how is the $15 billion in equities performing so far in Q4? Pretty well. Total increase = $875 million. Of this, about $340 million is mark-to-market = $14.40/share. All numbers are pre-tax. If we get a continuation of the current rally into year end, we should see a nice rebound in the valuation of Fairfax's equity holdings.

 

Movers:

1.) Eurobank +$313 million

2.) Atlas        +$178

3.) FFH TRS  +$158

 

PS: please let me know if you see any material errors in the Excel spreadsheet attached below.

Fairfax Equity Holdings Nov 10 2022.xlsx 255.46 kB · 8 downloads

thanks viking 

[Viking]

Once a year I find it is useful/interesting to rank Fairfax's equity holdings by size. Learnings?

1.) each year, for the past 5 years, the overall quality of the collection of holdings has been steadily improving. This is very subjective. Some, like Eurobank, keep getting better (management doing what its supposed to do). Others, like Resolute, got lucky and stumbled into a bull market in lumber (they did buy two lumber mills at the bottom of the cycle so it was not all luck). Most of the resource plays look very well positioned (this was a very different picture 5 years ago). Atlas continues to execute its aggressive growth business model. New add Grivalia Hospitality looks solid. Other new adds like BAC, OXY and CVX are solid. More money is going to private equity (ShawKwei and more recently JAB) where there is a proven, successful, long term track record. Fairfax continues to grow ownership in existing holdings (Fairfax India, Stelco, Recipe). I could go on. Bottom line, i like the progression we are seeing over the past 5 years to an overall higher quality group of holdings. This bodes well for future returns from the equity portfolio.

2.) there is concentration at the top: top 3 positions = 30% (top 10 positions = 55%)

- but this is a little misleading as Fairfax India, BDT and ShawKwei are very diversified.

3.) after the top 10 positions you really have a lot of diversification. Well over 40 positions represent the remaining 45%. 

4.) there is also a lot of diversification of the holdings by:

- region: US/Canada, India, Greece, Asia

- sector: financials, commodities, hospitality, etc

- 13% managed by private equity funds (BDT, ShawKwei etc) and JAB will take this higher.

5.) Big changes year over year?

- Resolute will be coming off the list; monetization of a top 5 holding at a premium price is a big deal.

- Recipe take private roughly doubled its size.

- Given how far out of the money they are I did not include the Blackberry debentures in the Blackberry total (my subconscious just wanted to get BB out of the top 10 .

- BAC, OXY and CVX were sizable adds in Q2; has more been added in Q3? (In the 2008 bear market Fairfax loaded up with purchases like these… quality US big cap. Will they do the same thing over the next year?)

—————

EA: equity accounted; MM: mark-to-market; CE: consolidated equity

 

 

Edited November 11, 2022 by Viking

[nwoodman]

1 hour ago, Viking said:

Once a year I find it is useful/interesting to rank Fairfax's equity holdings by size. Learnings?

1.) each year, for the past 5 years, the overall quality of the collection of holdings has been steadily improving. This is very subjective. Some, like Eurobank, keep getting better (management doing what its supposed to do). Others, like Resolute, got lucky and stumbled into a bull market in lumber (they did buy two lumber mills at the bottom of the cycle so it was not all luck). Most of the resource plays look very well positioned (this was a very different picture 5 years ago). Atlas continues to execute its aggressive growth business model. New add Grivalia Hospitality looks solid. Other new adds like BAC, OXY and CVX are solid. More money is going to private equity (ShawKwei and more recently JAB) where there is a proven, successful, long term track record. Fairfax continues to grow ownership in existing holdings (Fairfax India, Stelco, Recipe). I could go on. Bottom line, i like the progression we are seeing over the past 5 years to an overall higher quality group of holdings. This bodes well for future returns from the equity portfolio.

2.) there is concentration at the top: top 3 positions = 30% (top 10 positions = 55%)

- but this is a little misleading as Fairfax India, BDT and ShawKwei are very diversified.

3.) after the top 10 positions you really have a lot of diversification. Well over 40 positions represent the remaining 45%. 

4.) there is also a lot of diversification of the holdings by:

- region: US/Canada, India, Greece, Asia

- sector: financials, commodities, hospitality, etc

- 13% managed by private equity funds (BDT, ShawKwei etc) and JAB will take this higher.

5.) Big changes year over year?

- Resolute will be coming off the list; monetization of a top 5 holding at a premium price is a big deal.

- Recipe take private roughly doubled its size.

- Given how far out of the money they are I did not include the Blackberry debentures in the Blackberry total (my subconscious just wanted to get BB out of the top 10 .

- BAC, OXY and CVX were sizable adds in Q2; has more been added in Q3? (In the 2008 bear market Fairfax loaded up with purchases like these… quality US big cap. Will they do the same thing over the next year?)

—————

EA: equity accounted; MM: mark-to-market; CE: consolidated equity

 

 

Thanks @Viking,  there may be a bit of a currency tail wind for a portion of those holdings if the USD normalises.  It strikes me that even the Recipe buyout may look sensible in that light.

 

Blackberry so far down the list only produces a slight grimace now, rather than the stomach cramps it used to

 

I am also dying to have that EXCO black box prised open at some point