Fairfax stock positions

[gfp]

15 minutes ago, Parsad said:

Would Atlas benefit from the recent spike in shipping rates through the Gulf? 

 

 

 

 

Of course not.  Have you forgotten Atlas's business model?  

[Parsad]

34 minutes ago, gfp said:

 

 

Of course not.  Have you forgotten Atlas's business model?  

 

Well they have long-term contract rates, but they also have ships coming on line.  They may be able to take advantage of spiking rates.  Cheers!

[Txvestor]

53 minutes ago, Parsad said:

Would Atlas benefit from the recent spike in shipping rates through the Gulf? 

 

As well, is Fairfax underwriting any policies on shipping in the area with the massive spike in insurance that the U.S. government is now covering? 

 

Cheers!

Likely via the Lloyds syndicate and Brit. 
I'm not sure how much long term rates go up due to these hopefully shorter term dislocations. I think Sokol is building this more into something like a utility or railroad type model with predictable financing and cash flows. 

[Parsad]

4 minutes ago, Txvestor said:

Likely via the Lloyds syndicate and Brit. 
I'm not sure how much long term rates go up due to these hopefully shorter term dislocations. I think Sokol is building this more into something like a utility or railroad type model with predictable financing and cash flows. 

 

Yup...I agree.  I just remember the last time there was a huge spike in rates, they locked in 5-7 year terms at those rates.  Not that this dislocation will be as long...but they may be able to lock-in high 3-4 year contracts.  

 

Apparently of the 750 or so ships that go through Hormuz, about 100 or so are containerships.  If the U.S. government entity now guarantees the insurance rates on those ships...well, it's like getting coverage for nearly free, while shipping rates are through the roof.

 

Interesting times!  Cheers!

[TwoCitiesCapital]

New charter rates LESS the rising insurance costs on all of their boats to reflect the elevated risks? 

 

Not sure this is gonna be a net plus for them? 

New charter rates LESS the rising insurance costs on all of their boats to reflect the elevated risks? 

 

Not sure this is gonna be a net plus for them? 

 

Edit: I was under the impression the "insurance" the govt was providing were envoys to accompany the ships. Did the government say they'd be providing actual underwriting of property insurance for the boats? 

Edited March 4 by TwoCitiesCapital

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

Edit: I was under the impression the "insurance" the govt was providing were envoys to accompany the ships. Did the government say they'd be providing actual underwriting of property insurance for the boats? 

 

Yes, according to the Guardian and a few other articles out there.  Cheers!

 

19h ago23.21 GMT

The US navy could begin escorting oil tankers through the strait of Hormuz if necessary, president Donald Trump said on Tuesday, in one of the administration’s most aggressive steps yet to attempt to contain soaring energy prices sparked by the US-Israel war with Iran.

As the escalating conflict in the Middle East has raised risks to shipping through key waterways, Trump said that he had ordered the US international Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide political risk insurance and financial guarantees for maritime trade in the Gulf.

Global crude prices have spiked since Israeli and US forces began striking Iran over the weekend, leading to fighting that has interrupted Middle East oil tanker shipments.

Ship owners and analysts were uncertain that military escorts and insurance backstopping by the DFC would be enough to stop rising prices, however. The DFC, launched in 2019, is a government agency that partners with private investors to support projects in developing countries.

Trump has made lower fuel costs for Americans central to his economic messaging, and the move signals a willingness to use financial and military tools to prevent disruptions to global crude supplies.

“No matter what, the United States will ensure the free flow of energy to the world,” Trump said in a social media post.

[petec]

I'd be surprised if Atlas benefit much. Yes, some containers go through Hormuz but it's a tiny fraction of global container volumes and it's not strategically important - my guess is they just stop. And Atlas' newbuilds tend to be contracted before they're ordered, so it's not the ones coming online that can benefit - only the ones rolling off contract. The odds of getting a long term contract at a high rate because of a (likely) short war seem limited to me. 

 

In entirely separate news, an anecdote: a small company I chair is renewing its insurance. Very standard general SME policy in the UK. The rate is down 30% y/y. 

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, petec said:

I'd be surprised if Atlas benefit much. Yes, some containers go through Hormuz but it's a tiny fraction of global container volumes and it's not strategically important - my guess is they just stop. And Atlas' newbuilds tend to be contracted before they're ordered, so it's not the ones coming online that can benefit - only the ones rolling off contract. The odds of getting a long term contract at a high rate because of a (likely) short war seem limited to me. 

 

In entirely separate news, an anecdote: a small company I chair is renewing its insurance. Very standard general SME policy in the UK. The rate is down 30% y/y. 

 

Hmmm...thanks!  Cheers!

[Hoodlum]

Bloomberg did an interview with Murad Al-Katib of AGT Foods. 

 

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/shows/the-close/2026/03/05/agt-foods-to-rebuild-investor-confidence

 

Edited March 6 by Hoodlum

[SafetyinNumbers]

BAMI initiation at NBF last week

 

 

[SafetyinNumbers]

EUROB buying a lot more stock back on Iran conflict sell off. 

 

 

[djokovic1]

Thanks @SafetyinNumbers thats a really good spot. Great to see Eurobank being opportunistic on share repurchase and 3x the pace of daily buybacks at lower prices while fundamentals are great and compounding. It's very rare to see management acting so opportunistically and practically. Makes me want to independently look into Eurobank as an investment!

[Viking]

I have begun the process of updating my Excel tracking sheet for Fairfax's equity holdings. The Excel workbook is attached below. Please let me know if you see any errors.

 

Summary of the high-level logic that was used.

 

1.) Begin with Fairfax’s summary of common stock holdings from page 15 in 2025AR.

 

Update share count and carrying value.

Get the spreadsheet to match each of the holdings and each of the totals (Dec 31, 2025):

• Mark to market
• Associates
• Consolidated

2.) Incorporate positions we know about that Fairfax did not included in their summary.

• Limited partnerships: BDT, Shaw Kwei and Waterous/Strathcona
• Associates: Waterous/Greenfire (share count) + legacy positions

3.) Add new news from Q1 2026

• Increase in Under Armour
• Small add to John Keells
• AGT IPO

Thanks to @SafetyinNumbers for help with share count for Waterous/Strathcona and Waterous III/Greenfire (estimates as Fairfax did not give actual share count in AR).

 

To state the obvious: the spreadsheet is a very rough estimate. 

Fairfax Mar 9 2026.xlsx

Edited March 9 by Viking

[Viking]

Here is an update on AGT Food & Ingredients - post IPO. Fairfax did two things:

• Converted sponsor notes to equity = C$340M = US$249M
• IPO - Private Placement = $200M = US$146M

This is a significant equity investment for Fairfax. Of course, they understand the investment very well (having owned it since 2018). 

 

The market value of Fairfax's investment in AGT is US$571M, making it something like Fairfax's 10th largest equity holding. But at ~2% of the total equity portfolio, it is a small position. 

 

This will be an interesting position to monitor in the coming year. The IPO did not go well. What was the problem? Here are some guesses:

1.  AGT is a business in transition - from a commodity to more of a packed goods business. 
2. There has been a lot of change happening under the hood at AGT. They had a lot of debt. This has been eliminated (Fairfax converting their sponsor notes to equity, the IPO and private placement with Fairfax).
3. Reputation - AGT. AGT was a terrible investment the last time it was public. Why would they get the benefit of the doubt now?  
4. Reputation - Fairfax. The last two take public investments Fairfax sponsored were Farmers Edge and Boat Rocker. Both were train wrecks for minority shareholders. Why would Fairfax get the benefit of the doubt now?

AGT is important. Is it an example of 'old Fairfax'? Where minority shareholders lose a bundle? Or does it become an example of 'new Fairfax'? Where minority shareholders actually do well when they partner with Fairfax on an investment? I am betting on the latter (I bought a starter position in AGT on Friday). 

 

Fairfax needs to continue to earn back the trust of investors (yes, it remains a work in progress). It has been doing all the right things for the past 5 years. In the coming years, the AGT IPO will provide another important data point.  

 

Edited March 9 by Viking

[SafetyinNumbers]

38 minutes ago, Viking said:

Here is an update on AGT Food & Ingredients - post IPO. Fairfax did two things:

• Converted sponsor notes to equity = C$340M = US$249M
• IPO - Private Placement = $200M = US$146M

This is a significant equity investment for Fairfax. Of course, they understand the investment very well (having owned it since 2018). 

 

The market value of Fairfax's investment in AGT is US$571M, making it something like Fairfax's 10th largest equity holding. But at ~2% of the total equity portfolio, it is a small position. 

 

This will be an interesting position to monitor in the coming year. The IPO did not go well. What was the problem? Here are some guesses:

1.  AGT is a business in transition - from a commodity to more of a packed goods business. 
2. There has been a lot of change happening under the hood at AGT. They had a lot of debt. This has been eliminated (Fairfax converting their sponsor notes to equity, the IPO and private placement with Fairfax).
3. Reputation - AGT. AGT was a terrible investment the last time it was public. Why would they get the benefit of the doubt now?  
4. Reputation - Fairfax. The last two take public investments Fairfax sponsored were Farmers Edge and Boat Rocker. Both were train wrecks for minority shareholders. Why would Fairfax get the benefit of the doubt now?

AGT is important. Is it an example of 'old Fairfax'? Where minority shareholders lose a bundle? Or does it become an example of 'new Fairfax'? Where minority shareholders actually do well when they partner with Fairfax on an investment? I am betting on the latter (I bought a starter position in AGT on Friday). 

 

Fairfax needs to continue to earn back the trust of investors (yes, it remains a work in progress). It has been doing all the right things for the past 5 years. In the coming years, the AGT IPO will provide another important data point.  

 

 

Thanks @Viking, this is great. 
 

I would like to understand how much FCF we can generate and how much we need to reinvest to achieve growth targets. FCF conversion last year was decent. Going forward it should be higher with so much debt repaid. Could it be north lf $1.50/sh? Can they pay $1 a share dividend and still grow? 
 

The stock is down 10% from the IPO and given the deal closed today, we might see research coverage soon.

[Viking]

1 hour ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

 

Thanks @Viking, this is great. 
 

I would like to understand how much FCF we can generate and how much we need to reinvest to achieve growth targets. FCF conversion last year was decent. Going forward it should be higher with so much debt repaid. Could it be north lf $1.50/sh? Can they pay $1 a share dividend and still grow? 
 

The stock is down 10% from the IPO and given the deal closed today, we might see research coverage soon.

There is a lot to like about AGT 2.0. Strong founder/seasoned CEO. Clean balance sheet. Strategic transition to more table results already well underway. But it might take two or three quarters to get a cleaner look at the business results (with debt/interest expanse largely eliminated). AGT releases Q4 and YE results on March 16 after market close. 

[SafetyinNumbers]

25 minutes ago, Viking said:

There is a lot to like about AGT 2.0. Strong founder/seasoned CEO. Clean balance sheet. Strategic transition to more table results already well underway. But it might take two or three quarters to get a cleaner look at the business results (with debt/interest expanse largely eliminated). AGT releases Q4 and YE results on March 16 after market close. 

That’s probably when we find out what the dividend will be. Think it matters if it yields >5% or not?

[yesman182]

5 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

That’s probably when we find out what the dividend will be. Think it matters if it yields >5% or not?

I am not Canadian, but paying a fat dividend seems like an easy way to get shareholders in Canada . So I think it matters 

[Viking]

2 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

That’s probably when we find out what the dividend will be. Think it matters if it yields >5% or not?

I hope the Murad (CEO) manages investors/analysts like Fokion (CEO at Eurobank)… underpromise and over deliver.
 

In terms of amount for a possible dividend, the key will be to do two things. Set it at a rate where:

1. It doesn’t handcuff the business - short or long term.
2. It can be modestly increased each year.

It will not be good if Murad overpromises and then under delivers. People are going to give him a chance… but they will probably be quick to exit if disappointed. 

Edited March 10 by Viking

[Txvestor]

34 minutes ago, Viking said:

I hope the Murad (CEO) manages investors/analysts like Fokion (CEO at Eurobank)… underpromise and over deliver.
 

In terms of amount for a possible dividend, the key will be to do two things. Set it at a rate where:

1. It doesn’t handcuff the business - short or long term.
2. It can be modestly increased each year.

It will not be good if Murad overpromises and then under delivers. People are going to give him a chance… but they will probably be quick to exit if disappointed. 

The key difference is the pristine balance sheet. He knows what the cash flows are and in that business they're fairly reliable and consistent. Having Fairfax as a majority owner is an additional plus as they're undeniably a financial backstop. 
If a manager knows his estimate cash flows and what the reinvestment/expansion needs are, and isn't leveraged then it's not rocket science to determine what level of dividend could be supported. 

[Hoodlum]

Fairfax has sold just over half it's shares (23.2% of outstanding) in Poseidon for $1.9B.   Fairfax still own 22.1% of outstanding shares.

 

https://www.fairfax.ca/press-releases/fairfax-agrees-to-sell-a-portion-of-its-interest-in-poseidon-corp-2026-03-10/

 

 

 

Edited March 10 by Hoodlum

[Hoodlum]

I believe this will provide a ~$900M ($43/share) gain in Q2 once this closes.  I hope that is accurate.

[djokovic1]

13 minutes ago, Hoodlum said:

Fairfax has sold just over half it's shares (23.2% of outstanding) in Poseidon for $1.9B.   Fairfax still own 22.1% of outstanding shares.

 

That's amazing. The carrying value was $2bn and market value was $2.6bn. 50% Sale at $1.9bn implies a valuation of $3.8bn. Another amazing success for Fairfax. 

More cash for buybacks and a nice realised gain for the analysts who care about accounting numbers.

[MMM20]

1 minute ago, djokovic1 said:

 

That's amazing. The carrying value was $2bn and market value was $2.6bn. 50% Sale at $1.9bn implies a valuation of $3.8bn. Another amazing success for Fairfax. 

More cash for buybacks and a nice realised gain for the analysts who care about accounting numbers.

Stock should be up 3-5% on this news all else equal. 

[Hoodlum]

33 minutes ago, djokovic1 said:

 

That's amazing. The carrying value was $2bn and market value was $2.6bn. 50% Sale at $1.9bn implies a valuation of $3.8bn. Another amazing success for Fairfax. 

More cash for buybacks and a nice realised gain for the analysts who care about accounting numbers.

 

The Poseidon shares are owned by the insurance subs, so my guess is that the insurance subs could allocate this towards the IDBI Bank acquisition depending on how it is structured.

 

Edited March 10 by Hoodlum