Fairfax stock positions

[[email protected]]

12 hours ago, Txvestor said:

We don't know what they have in their investment pipeline or plans they have for their cash on hand and what's coming in, but I can't imagine their TRS position staying at -350M if they do any significant amount of share buybacks. Of course we never know what share prices do.
Either way it's a solid investment for them until the share return to something resembling intrinsic value. 
2 questions on that though.

-Do you all know of those gains are settled/paid up every Q or at the closing of the position? 

-What is the carrying cost of this position? 
May apologies if this has already been mentioned somewhere, but I can't remember seeing it. 
Looking forward to the results later this week. I'm very bullish and see us landing in the $60-70 region. 

 

I think we do know one large potential investment. I think FFH is in the last stages of a bid to take majority ownership of a large Indian bank- IDBI. The winner of the bidding gets announced in March 2026, but it’s supposed to be valued around 7.5+ billion.

[dartmonkey]

10 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

It’s because they didn’t post an announcement this past Friday that I’m inferring with high confidence they are next week. 

I expected results this week -  they always report on Thursday after market close, and in the last fourteen years results have been between February 10 and February 18, and never as late as February 19. That would seem to make Thursday Feb 12 (this week) more likely than Thursday Feb 19. 

 

But I am pretty sure Safety is right, since they have always pre-announced the conference call by at least the Friday of the prior week, and often by the Friday 13 days prior, and occasionally even earlier, and never in the same week they published earnings.

 

So this year is likely to be the latest earnings report date in 15 years (by one day), unless they have just forgotten to pre-announce, which is possible but, I think, much less likely. 

[Hoodlum]

11 hours ago, Crip1 said:

I've not seen that announcement, can you post? I thought it was this week as well since they announced Q4 last year on February 13th.

 

-Crip

 

I initially thought it would be this week as well.  It looks like we were not the only ones confused, as the Globe also had Fairfax results this Thursday when they posted this last Friday.

 

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-calendar-what-investors-need-to-know-for-the-week-ahead-126/

 

Thursday February 12

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of Feb. 7. Estimate is 220,000, down 11,000 from the previous week.
 

(8:45 a.m. ET) Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers joins fireside chat in Toronto.
 

(10 a.m. ET) U.S. existing home sales for January. Consensus is an annualized rate decline of 3.2 per cent.
 

Earnings include: Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd., Airbnb Inc., Air Canada, Applied Materials Inc., Bombardier Inc., CAE Inc., Canadian Apartment Properties REIT, Canadian Tire Corp. Ltd., Cenovus Energy Inc., Definity Financial Corp., Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd., Fortis Inc., H&R REIT, IGM Financial Inc., Keyera Corp., Mullen Group Ltd., New Gold Inc., Restaurant Brands International Inc.

 

Edited February 10 by Hoodlum

[SafetyinNumbers]

34 minutes ago, [email protected] said:

I think we do know one large potential investment. I think FFH is in the last stages of a bid to take majority ownership of a large Indian bank- IDBI. The winner of the bidding gets announced in March 2026, but it’s supposed to be valued around 7.5+ billion.

That investment would be done at the insurance subsidiaries level so shouldn’t impact the holdco. Don’t expect FFH’s stake to be more than $2.5b.

[jbwent63]

4 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

New Fairfax investment in a Canadian listed company CVW.V

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cvw-sustainable-royalties-announces-50-120300004.html

Another follow Pierre Lassonde investment?

[Haryana]

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/stocks/CVW-X/profile/

CVW Sustainable Royalties Inc is a clean technology company engaged in the commercialization of Creating Value from Waste (CVW) that recovers bitumen, solvents, critical minerals, and water from oil sands froth treatment tailings while significantly reducing their emissions and enhancing tailings management. All of the company's activities and assets are located in Canada.

Key Executives

Name	Title
Kevin Moran	Chief Technology Officer/Executive VP
Akshay Dubey	CEO/Director

[Hoodlum]

6 minutes ago, Haryana said:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/stocks/CVW-X/profile/

CVW Sustainable Royalties Inc is a clean technology company engaged in the commercialization of Creating Value from Waste (CVW) that recovers bitumen, solvents, critical minerals, and water from oil sands froth treatment tailings while significantly reducing their emissions and enhancing tailings management. All of the company's activities and assets are located in Canada.

Key Executives

Name	Title
Kevin Moran	Chief Technology Officer/Executive VP
Akshay Dubey	CEO/Director

 

Pierre has been on the board as a special advisor since 2022.

 

https://cvwsustainableroyalties.com/about-us/

 

Mr. Lassonde joined CVW CleanTech as a special advisor in October, 2022 and is a highly respected Canadian professional engineer, entrepreneur, investor, and philanthropist. He founded Franco-Nevada Corp. in 1982, introducing the royalty financing model to the mining sector which led to the creation of one of the world’s largest royalty businesses today. 

 

https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/cvw-cleantech-announces-maiden-royalty-investment-into-northstar-clean-technologies-and-15-million-brokered-private-placement-874387262.html

Directors and Special Advisor to the Company Pierre Lassonde are supportive of the Transaction. The Offering is anchored by Mr. Lassonde who intends to personally invest $1,000,000 bringing his ownership in the Company to approximately 8% of the Company.

Edited February 10 by Hoodlum

[Viking]

2 hours ago, jbwent63 said:

Another follow Pierre Lassonde investment?

 

@jbwent63 and @Hoodlum , thanks for pointing out the Pierre Lassonde angle to the investment in CVW Sustainable Royalties. This is a very small investment for Fairfax ($37 million = C$50 million). 

 

 

https://wp-cvwcleantech-2024.s3.ca-central-1.amazonaws.com/media/2026/02/2026-02-CVW-Investor-Presentation-1.pdf

 

Edited February 10 by Viking

[Haryana]

 

[Viking]

On 2/9/2026 at 2:13 PM, Viking said:

How is Fairfax’s equity portfolio performing YTD-2026? It is up in value by ~$1.4B, or ~$62/sh. Very strong start to the year. Big gainers? Eurobank, Orla (gold), CIB, UA (new) and Foran (copper). Q1 will also see ~$250M gain on sale of Eurolife. 

 

Importantly, my tracker only captures the change in value of the public equities, which represents ~60% of total holdings. This means public equities are up ~8.8% to start the year (not the 5.2% in my summary below).

 

Of course the 40% of holdings that are not public are also going up in value.  

 

For those who want to get into the weeds, my Excel tracker is attached below.

 

Fairfax Feb 2026.xlsx 357.01 kB · 8 downloads

Josh Brown making a big call on this years dominant investment theme: HALO stocks

• Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence

“These are the stocks that are going up in 2026.”

• Can’t be disrupted by AI. 
• Not about value or growth.

Sectors: Energy, materials, consumer staples

 

No idea if he will be right. I do find Josh’s views to be pretty insightful. (Skip ahead to 4:30 mark to get to his explanation of what a HALO stock is.)
 

Guess whose portfolio is stuffed with HALO stocks? Fairfax. Their equity holdings smoked last year. And they off to a very strong start in 2026. Let’s hope Josh is right. 
 

 

Edited February 11 by Viking

[SafetyinNumbers]

27 minutes ago, Viking said:

Not about value or growth.

But they are cheap!

 

 

[Txvestor]

1 hour ago, Viking said:

Josh Brown making a big call on this years dominant investment theme: HALO stocks

• Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence

“These are the stocks that are going up in 2026.”

• Can’t be disrupted by AI. 
• Not about value or growth.

Sectors: Energy, materials, consumer staples

 

No idea if he will be right. I do find Josh’s views to be pretty insightful. (Skip ahead to 4:30 mark to get to his explanation of what a HALO stock is.)
 

Guess whose portfolio is stuffed with HALO stocks? Fairfax. Their equity holdings smoked last year. And they off to a very strong start in 2026. Let’s hope Josh is right. 
 

 

Might give them opportunities for some good exits, which would be even better while their stock is cheap and the have minority partners to buyout. but quite literally some of these HALO companies don't really have the earnings or growth prospects to justify the current prices. Just market participants looking for somewhere to hide as everyone is afraid of cash and treasuries aren't yielding very well

tl compensate for the currency risk: 

However my view is that the AI is eating software trade is overdone. Rather than the analogy of newspapers in 2002, I'm reminded of the every bricks and mortar retailer is going to be "Amazoned" trade circa 2017 I think. I remember them taking high-quality names like Costco to the woodshed. Costco traded into the 140s. I always wanted to buy Costco, but it persistently stayed expensive. It's up 6-7x since then. Nonetheless that industry has seen some failures, has seen slower growth, and has seen certain blue chips, like target struggle. I think at times like this when there is in discriminate selling there's always some names that will come out of this with exceptional outcomes. Never easy identifying them though. 

[Viking]

26 minutes ago, Txvestor said:

Might give them opportunities for some good exits, which would be even better while their stock is cheap and the have minority partners to buyout. but quite literally some of these HALO companies don't really have the earnings or growth prospects to justify the current prices. Just market participants looking for somewhere to hide as everyone is afraid of cash and treasuries aren't yielding very well

tl compensate for the currency risk: 

However my view is that the AI is eating software trade is overdone. Rather than the analogy of newspapers in 2002, I'm reminded of the every bricks and mortar retailer is going to be "Amazoned" trade circa 2017 I think. I remember them taking high-quality names like Costco to the woodshed. Costco traded into the 140s. I always wanted to buy Costco, but it persistently stayed expensive. It's up 6-7x since then. Nonetheless that industry has seen some failures, has seen slower growth, and has seen certain blue chips, like target struggle. I think at times like this when there is in discriminate selling there's always some names that will come out of this with exceptional outcomes. Never easy identifying them though. 

I am a complete idiot when it comes to understanding how the market trades. It will be interesting if the selloff in software stocks is for real (I have bought a little CSU and ADBE on the big drawdown) and if the shift into HALO is for real. But if the momentum crowd gets interested we could see it pop. And these are small sectors (energy, materials, consumer staples) - a large inflow of $ could have an outsized impact. 

Edited February 11 by Viking

[UK]

The question is why banks and insurance themselves do not fall under his HALO narrative? I mean sure these are not some heavy asset businesses, but they are heavy capital businesses and the need for capital and also very high regulatory barriers/moat seems to work fine for them? Perhaps AI could increase productivity of banks and insurers, but could it be put in charge of making final underwriting and capital allocation decisions? Not very likely? 

 

Edited February 11 by UK

[UK]

For what it is worth (weak in my opinion):

 

Based on research from February 2026, Barclays has significantly downgraded its outlook on the European insurance sector to "underweight," warning of a "slow burn" de-rating driven by structural risks. This sentiment suggests that the selloff in insurance stocks is "only just starting". 
Here are the key details regarding the Barclays insurance downgrades:
1. Structural Threats (AI and Autonomous Vehicles)
Motor Insurance Risk: Barclays analysts, including Claudia Gaspari, flagged that the rise of AI-driven platforms and autonomous vehicles poses a long-term threat to motor insurance, which accounts for 35-40% of global property and casualty premiums.
De-rating Potential: The sector faces further downside, with valuations potentially dropping another 5-25% as the market begins to price in these technological disruptions.
Aviva Exposure: Barclays highlighted Aviva as being particularly exposed to this AI-driven de-rating in the motor insurance sector. 
2. Sector-Specific Downgrades (June 2025 - Early 2026)
Allianz (ALV): Downgraded from Equalweight to Underweight in June 2025, with analysts citing "demanding consensus expectations" and limited upside potential.
Tryg (TRYG): Downgraded from Overweight to Equalweight in January 2026, due to "limited scope for positive earnings revisions" despite a strong Nordic market.
AIG: Downgraded to Equalweight in December 2025, due to limited growth prospects and high-risk, low-profit, recent transactions.
Zurich Insurance (ZFSVF): Downgraded from Overweight to Equal Weight in June 2025.
Sun Life Financial (SLF): Downgraded to Underweight in July 2025.
RenaissanceRe: Downgraded to Underweight in January 2025, citing pressure in the property catastrophe segment. 
3. Broader Market Impact
Sector Outlook: The European insurance sector was downgraded to "underweight" (sometimes referred to as "reduce holdings" in reports) following the launch of AI tools like Insureify's ChatGPT, which triggered fears of sector disruption.
Why Now? While not predicting immediate catastrophe, Barclays argues that the sector is already struggling with weak earnings per share momentum and is now facing structural, long-term erosion. 

 

Edited February 11 by UK

[Viking]

1 hour ago, UK said:

For what it is worth (weak in my opinion):

 

Based on research from February 2026, Barclays has significantly downgraded its outlook on the European insurance sector to "underweight," warning of a "slow burn" de-rating driven by structural risks. This sentiment suggests that the selloff in insurance stocks is "only just starting". 
Here are the key details regarding the Barclays insurance downgrades:
1. Structural Threats (AI and Autonomous Vehicles)
Motor Insurance Risk: Barclays analysts, including Claudia Gaspari, flagged that the rise of AI-driven platforms and autonomous vehicles poses a long-term threat to motor insurance, which accounts for 35-40% of global property and casualty premiums.
De-rating Potential: The sector faces further downside, with valuations potentially dropping another 5-25% as the market begins to price in these technological disruptions.
Aviva Exposure: Barclays highlighted Aviva as being particularly exposed to this AI-driven de-rating in the motor insurance sector. 
2. Sector-Specific Downgrades (June 2025 - Early 2026)
Allianz (ALV): Downgraded from Equalweight to Underweight in June 2025, with analysts citing "demanding consensus expectations" and limited upside potential.
Tryg (TRYG): Downgraded from Overweight to Equalweight in January 2026, due to "limited scope for positive earnings revisions" despite a strong Nordic market.
AIG: Downgraded to Equalweight in December 2025, due to limited growth prospects and high-risk, low-profit, recent transactions.
Zurich Insurance (ZFSVF): Downgraded from Overweight to Equal Weight in June 2025.
Sun Life Financial (SLF): Downgraded to Underweight in July 2025.
RenaissanceRe: Downgraded to Underweight in January 2025, citing pressure in the property catastrophe segment. 
3. Broader Market Impact
Sector Outlook: The European insurance sector was downgraded to "underweight" (sometimes referred to as "reduce holdings" in reports) following the launch of AI tools like Insureify's ChatGPT, which triggered fears of sector disruption.
Why Now? While not predicting immediate catastrophe, Barclays argues that the sector is already struggling with weak earnings per share momentum and is now facing structural, long-term erosion. 

 

 

@UK , thanks for posting. My guess is this partly explains the elevated volatility we have been seeing with P/C insurance stocks over the past 6 to 9 months. This volatility will likely persist moving forward.

 

The key for P/C insurers will likely be earnings, dividends and buybacks - those components may well represent most of the return investors receive moving forward (not a lot of multiple expansion for the group as a whole). 

 

We appear to be at the 'wall of worry' part of the cycle. 

Edited February 11 by Viking

[SafetyinNumbers]

1 hour ago, Viking said:

 

@UK , thanks for posting. My guess is this partly explains the elevated volatility we have been seeing with P/C insurance stocks over the past 6 to 9 months. This volatility will likely persist moving forward.

 

The key for P/C insurers will likely be earnings, dividends and buybacks - those components may well represent most of the return investors receive moving forward (not a lot of multiple expansion for the group as a whole). 

 

We appear to be at the 'wall of worry' part of the cycle. 

It seems like AI is a narrative for multiple contraction in a lot of sectors while real assets or HALOs are getting bid up. 

[value_hunter]

2 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

It seems like AI is a narrative for multiple contraction in a lot of sectors while real assets or HALOs are getting bid up. 

 

Actually Gemini's response is positive for Fairfax.

 

Will AI have positive or negative impact on Fairfax earning?

 

AI is expected to have a 

net positive impact on Fairfax Financial’s earnings in the short-to-medium term, primarily by enhancing its two core "engines": underwriting profitability and investment returns. Unlike many peers, Fairfax's highly decentralized model and specialty-risk focus act as a partial shield against the structural "auto insurance" risks cited by investment banks like Barclays.

 

1. Positive Impacts on Underwriting Earnings

• Operational Efficiency: Fairfax’s property and casualty (P&C) subsidiaries (e.g., Allied World, Odyssey Group, Northbridge) are integrating AI to automate routine tasks, which can reduce underwriting processing times by 31% to 70%.
• Surgical Precision in Risk: In late 2025, Fairfax reported a consolidated combined ratio of 92.0%, signifying highly disciplined underwriting. AI-driven predictive models further refine this by improving premium accuracy by up to 53% and cutting fraud losses by nearly 30%.
• Agile Response to Hard Markets: Fairfax’s decentralized structure allows individual subsidiaries to pivot quickly. For example, during the 2024-2025 "hard market," multiple Fairfax companies used AI to rapidly expand their presence in high-margin Cyber and Specialty lines, which now drive a significant portion of their record US$32.8 billion in gross premiums. 

 

2. Positive Impact on Investment "Float" 

• The "Watsa Effect" & AI Stakes: Fairfax manages a massive $70.9 billion investment portfolio. CEO Prem Watsa has a history of investing in technology-adjacent firms. AI is expected to boost earnings for banks and asset managers within the Fairfax portfolio by lowering credit monitoring costs and improving fraud detection.
• Higher Investment Income: For Q3 2025, interest and dividend income rose to US$655.4 million, up from US$609.9 million the previous year. AI-driven market analysis and algorithmic trading help optimize these returns across their vast bond and equity holdings. 

 

3. Mitigation of Negative "Auto" Risks

• Low Relative Exposure: While Barclays warns of a "slow burn" de-rating for insurers heavily reliant on motor insurance (like Aviva), Fairfax is less vulnerable because its revenue is heavily skewed toward commercial casualty, reinsurance, and specialty lines.
• Strategic Divestment: In late 2025, Fairfax agreed to sell its 80% stake in Eurolife for approximately US$940 million, effectively doubling down on its more profitable, AI-resilient P&C and reinsurance operations. 

 

Potential Risks to Earnings

• The "Commodity Trap": If AI-powered comparison tools eventually dominate commercial lines as they have retail auto, Fairfax could face margin compression as brokers gain more leverage to force lower premiums.
• Investment Volatility: While AI can help, Fairfax's earnings remain sensitive to macro swings. If AI-driven disruption causes defaults in the corporate loans or private equity stakes held in their portfolio, it could offset underwriting gains. 

 

 

Summary Table: AI Impact on Fairfax (FFH) Metrics

 

Metric	AI Influence	Trend
Combined Ratio	Improved precision and fraud detection.	Down (Positive)
Gross Premiums	New AI-enabled lines like Cyber and Specialty.	Up (Positive)
Operating Income	Massive reduction in document processing time.	Up (Positive)
Investment Gains	Enhanced risk modeling for the $70.9B float.	Stable/Up

[SafetyinNumbers]

I hope to come across Sanjay Tugnait, CEO of Fairfax Digital Services, at the AGM. I’m curious how big an operation that is as he has a very impressive resume. He’s used to managing a good sized operation and presumably servicing Fairfax related companies assuming that’s their mandate is a pretty big client list on its own. 
 

https://www.fairfaxdigital.ca

 

One of the reasons I’m more bullish on underwriting than the street is because I think Fairfax insurance subs have put some of their operating leverage savings into upgrading productivity through technology spend. Presumably, those investments kick in at some point in the expense ratio.  If I’m wrong, it’s hecause it’s table stakes but that’s not the impression I get of the industry. It’s expensive and risky to replace old systems so most don’t do it. 

[Hektor]

13 hours ago, value_hunter said:

Potential Risks to Earnings

• The "Commodity Trap": If AI-powered comparison tools eventually dominate commercial lines as they have retail auto, Fairfax could face margin compression as brokers gain more leverage to force lower premiums.
• Investment Volatility: While AI can help, Fairfax's earnings remain sensitive to macro swings. If AI-driven disruption causes defaults in the corporate loans or private equity stakes held in their portfolio, it could offset underwriting gains. 

In addition, If FFH (and other insurers) have not explicitly excluded certain risks (or implicitly identified the risks they will cover to the exclusion of everything else), risks like injury due to a AI bias (e.g. a FFH client is sued by their customer/consumer claiming injury due to the FFH client implementing AI) or inability to attribute fault (e.g. AI controlled system crashes. Who among the owner, operator or manufacturer is at fault?) may add up. Also, there are lawyers out there who specialize only in "mass claims". AI might make their lives easier by discovering plaintiffs faster. 

[Hoodlum]

Goldman Sachs increase their target for Eurobank to 5 Euro and had some interesting comments on Eurobank and the Greek banks in general. 

 

https://m.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/goldman-sachs-upgrades-eurobank-to-buy-downgrades-nbg-in-greek-bank-shakeup-4502222?ampMode=1

 

"The Greek banks have entered an era of higher structural profitability and strategic flexibility supported by strong capital levels, increasingly resilient business models, and a very favourable macroeconomic backdrop," analysts said. 
 

The Eurobank upgrade reflects its "advantageous business mix" with strong presence across Greece, Cyprus, and Bulgaria, delivering sustainable mid-teens return on tangible equity (ROTE), according to the report. 

 

As of the nine months ended September 2025, Greece accounted for 47% of Eurobank’s adjusted net profit, while Cyprus contributed 35% and Bulgaria 16%.

 

Goldman Sachs expects Greek banks to deliver return on tangible equity averaging circa 14% to 15% over 2026-2028, with CET1 ratios exceeding 15%.

 

The banks rank among Europe’s most efficient operators, with cost-to-income ratios in the mid-30% range versus roughly 50% for Goldman Sachs’ broader European banks coverage.

 

Loan growth remains a key driver, with Greek banks expected to grow their loan books at roughly double the European average.

 

The report forecasts loan growth of 6% to 8% annually through 2028, supported by corporate lending demand and gradual improvement in household borrowing.

[Hamburg Investor]

13 hours ago, value_hunter said:

 

Actually Gemini's response is positive for Fairfax.

 

Will AI have positive or negative impact on Fairfax earning?

 

AI is expected to have a 

net positive impact on Fairfax Financial’s earnings in the short-to-medium term, primarily by enhancing its two core "engines": underwriting profitability and investment returns. Unlike many peers, Fairfax's highly decentralized model and specialty-risk focus act as a partial shield against the structural "auto insurance" risks cited by investment banks like Barclays.

 

1. Positive Impacts on Underwriting Earnings

• Operational Efficiency: Fairfax’s property and casualty (P&C) subsidiaries (e.g., Allied World, Odyssey Group, Northbridge) are integrating AI to automate routine tasks, which can reduce underwriting processing times by 31% to 70%.
• Surgical Precision in Risk: In late 2025, Fairfax reported a consolidated combined ratio of 92.0%, signifying highly disciplined underwriting. AI-driven predictive models further refine this by improving premium accuracy by up to 53% and cutting fraud losses by nearly 30%.
• Agile Response to Hard Markets: Fairfax’s decentralized structure allows individual subsidiaries to pivot quickly. For example, during the 2024-2025 "hard market," multiple Fairfax companies used AI to rapidly expand their presence in high-margin Cyber and Specialty lines, which now drive a significant portion of their record US$32.8 billion in gross premiums. 

 

2. Positive Impact on Investment "Float" 

• The "Watsa Effect" & AI Stakes: Fairfax manages a massive $70.9 billion investment portfolio. CEO Prem Watsa has a history of investing in technology-adjacent firms. AI is expected to boost earnings for banks and asset managers within the Fairfax portfolio by lowering credit monitoring costs and improving fraud detection.
• Higher Investment Income: For Q3 2025, interest and dividend income rose to US$655.4 million, up from US$609.9 million the previous year. AI-driven market analysis and algorithmic trading help optimize these returns across their vast bond and equity holdings. 

 

3. Mitigation of Negative "Auto" Risks

• Low Relative Exposure: While Barclays warns of a "slow burn" de-rating for insurers heavily reliant on motor insurance (like Aviva), Fairfax is less vulnerable because its revenue is heavily skewed toward commercial casualty, reinsurance, and specialty lines.
• Strategic Divestment: In late 2025, Fairfax agreed to sell its 80% stake in Eurolife for approximately US$940 million, effectively doubling down on its more profitable, AI-resilient P&C and reinsurance operations. 

 

Potential Risks to Earnings

• The "Commodity Trap": If AI-powered comparison tools eventually dominate commercial lines as they have retail auto, Fairfax could face margin compression as brokers gain more leverage to force lower premiums.
• Investment Volatility: While AI can help, Fairfax's earnings remain sensitive to macro swings. If AI-driven disruption causes defaults in the corporate loans or private equity stakes held in their portfolio, it could offset underwriting gains. 

 

 

Summary Table: AI Impact on Fairfax (FFH) Metrics

 

Metric	AI Influence	Trend
Combined Ratio	Improved precision and fraud detection.	Down (Positive)
Gross Premiums	New AI-enabled lines like Cyber and Specialty.	Up (Positive)
Operating Income	Massive reduction in document processing time.	Up (Positive)
Investment Gains	Enhanced risk modeling for the $70.9B float.	Stable/Up

Yes, but I have another question regarding disruption, addressed it to Perplexity and got to this: 

My personal take is, thinking in three dimensions and maybe it's even chronological (?): 

1. Run for more efficiency: Big Insurers win against smaller in the " ("1st phase")
   1. Every insurer invests into AI, saves costs, margins get better...
   2. BUT: The smaller have to invest the same amount than the bigger ones - but their profit from winning efficiency is smaller. => This creates an advantage for the large companies over the small ones (THINK: "strengthening the moat" and "Higher barriers of entry").
   3. This widens the moat of big insurers against smaller "classical" insurance companies and barriers of entry FFH is special because it can combine the advantages of small insurers with those of large ones if it performs well (the costs of learning and change can be shared; at the same time, smaller units are more agile and quicker to implement changes than large ones, AND FFH learns much faster overall than a centralised insurance unit due to the large number of entities and regions. Think "learning company".
   4. => This should help FFH even more than BRK, MKL and most others etc.
2. BUT: Competition eats away margin gains through AI efficiency gains – either completely or partially ("2nd phase")
   1. If every big insurer has similar efficiency gains, competition will once again lead to falling prices and margin gains being eroded.
   2. This applies more to highly competitive, transparent and large insurance markets than to small, intransparent, "separated" ones, where e. g. other insurers don't have any data to compete (THINK: There's more competition in car insurance than in insurance of a models or footballer's legs in a special insurance deal).
   3. => Here, for example, I would see MKL in front, FFH in the middle and BRK at the end. But FFH has at least a special extra advantage: Regional diversification. That might give them more time to adapt in markets, that are not first movers, so they can learn in e. g. Ukraine or South Africa from what happens in the US (my best guess is, that this will start where AI comes from and is adapted the most into the economy...).
3. "Real" AI disruption through AI disruption in the field of "face to the customer" ("3rd phase")
   1. AI changes how people and companies research for the best fitting insurer. Old analogue networks are becoming less important and losing their binding effect.
   2. The hurdles and time required to compare insurance policies are diminishing enormously, and decision-makers (whether B2C/private or B2B/entity) are being given new tools (whether they are giving better results, I cannot say; but they are used and that's the important thing within this discussion). A 100 pages insurance terms and conditions paper can be proved, understood and compared to others very easily in seconds etc. I just did that with finding an insurance for our new solar roof. You just ask, what's the biggest risk and which one is not so important, if the pricing is better...
   3. The question appears: Who needs human estate agents anymore in an AI search world? The role of the agent is under threat, at least in large areas of insurance, I guess. However, this shifts control over the "face to the customer" into motion. The old models (Think: "the estate agent's office on the corner" and "the existing insurance platforms in the digital world") erode.
   4. To me - clearly not being an insurance guy, I just know a thing or two about moats and disruption in general - here appears a risk that this upheaval will lead to a greater separation between "face to the customer" and "risk assumption" – and that new players will know how to exploit this to their advantage. You don't want to be the risk taker in the background, that could be changed immediately. You don't have to be the face to the customer yourself, but you do want to control the face to the customer one way or another. In all cases you do not want big parts of the interface to the customer being concentrated "elsewhere" in a room out of your own control.
   5. => I don't have any idea, how big this threat really is, but I perceive "change" and that's not necessarily good for moats. At least I am sure, that BRK - being more like a conglomerate owning an insurer, than an insurer owning companies, should be on a less riskier spot than MKL or FFH. FFH again has the regional aspect, so if things get ugly in e. g. the US, they might learn and invest into such a disruption. Still it would change the whole business model in a very meaningful way and the US is their biggest market.

Here's - additionally - what Perplexity told me:
 

"Likely disruption patterns:

• Embedded and B2B2C platforms: Tech and commerce companies integrate insurance as an invisible layer (e.g., at checkout, in mobility apps, in devices, travel), while the actual risk carrier remains interchangeable in the background.
  • Disruption here: Loss of the customer interface, commoditization of risk, margin compression for traditional retail insurers.
• Vertically digitalized insurtechs: Fully AI‑first players in specific niches (usage‑based motor, cyber, parametric, health) that build underwriting, pricing, and claims around AI/automation from day one
  • Disruption here: They attack profitable sub‑segments rather than the entire universal model – similar to how Tesla initially focused on the premium segment.
• New risk information: AI‑enabled telematics, geodata, and image analysis (e.g., wildfire risk from property images) shift information advantages to those who have access to these data sources and the models.

Complete disintermediation of insurers is less likely due to licensing, solvency capital, and regulation; instead, roles are more likely to be reshuffled:
    •    Who holds the capital and bears the risk?
    •    Who owns the customer interface?
    •    Who provides the AI infrastructure/models?

In many scenarios, the insurer still carries the risk but moves a step further away from the customer and has less pricing power."

I am not an insurance guy, so I may be off again here and there - but I am happy to learn as you know.

[dartmonkey]

On 2/9/2026 at 10:15 PM, SafetyinNumbers said:

It’s because they didn’t post an announcement this past Friday that I’m inferring with high confidence they are next week. 

Still no news from the company about the expected earnings release next Thursday, Feb 19, nor any reason given for putting out the report later than the February 10-18 range...

 

[Hoodlum]

3 minutes ago, dartmonkey said:

Still no news from the company about the expected earnings release next Thursday, Feb 19, nor any reason given for putting out the report later than the February 10-18 range...

 

 

The press release that goes out one week in advance of an earnings release, is always done on Friday after hours.  Usually well after 5pm EST.

[John Hjorth]

On 2/13/2026 at 8:11 PM, dartmonkey said:

Still no news from the company about the expected earnings release next Thursday, Feb 19, nor any reason given for putting out the report later than the February 10-18 range...

 

 

On 2/13/2026 at 8:17 PM, Hoodlum said:

The press release that goes out one week in advance of an earnings release, is always done on Friday after hours.  Usually well after 5pm EST.

 

@dartmonkey & @Hoodlum,

 

EDGAR 6-K filing accepted 2026-02-13 17:07:06, exhibit 99.1 :

 

Quote

FAIRFAX News Release

TSX Stock Symbol: FFH and FFH.U

 

TORONTO, February 13, 2026

 

FAIRFAX ANNOUNCES CONFERENCE CALL

 

Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited (TSX: FFH and FFH.U) will hold a conference call at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on Friday, February 20, 2026 to discuss its 2025 year-end results, which will be announced after the close of markets on Thursday, February 19, 2026 and will be available at that time on its website at www.fairfax.ca. The call, consisting of a presentation by the company followed by a question period, may be accessed at 1 (800) 369-2143 (Canada and U.S.) or 1 (312) 470-0063 (International) with the passcode “FAIRFAX”.

 

A replay of the call will be available from shortly after the termination of the call until 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time on Friday, March 20, 2026. The replay may be accessed at (866) 360-3309 (Canada and U.S.) or 1 (203) 369-0164 (International).

 

Fairfax is a holding company which, through its subsidiaries, is primarily engaged in property and casualty insurance and reinsurance and the associated investment management.

 

-30-

 

For further information contact:

John Varnell, Vice President, Corporate Development at (416) 367-4941

 

FAIRFAX FINANCIAL HOLDINGS LIMITED

95 Wellington Street West, Suite 800, Toronto, Ontario, M5J 2N7 Telephone: 416-367-4941 Facsimile: 416-367-4946

Edited February 14 by John Hjorth