Txvestor Posted January 19 Posted January 19 It's actually a fairly decent dining experience at a modest and affordable point. I usually go maybe 5-6 times a year. Standards are fairly well maintained across branches. I happen to have 4 within 5-6miles of where I live.
Hoodlum Posted January 19 Posted January 19 (edited) Eurobank currently trading above 4 Euro this morning for the first time, even with the Europe market indexes down due to Tariff threats. Edited January 19 by Hoodlum
dartmonkey Posted January 19 Posted January 19 33 minutes ago, Hoodlum said: Eurobank currently trading above 4 Euro this morning for the first time, even with the Europe market indexes down due to Tariff threats. Fairfax’s stake is now worth over US$5.5b, on top of possibly more realized gains from sales last quarter required to keep them from going over 33%. For context, Fairfax has a market value of US$39b. At 14%, Eurobank does not represent quite as large a proportion of Fairfax’s market cap as Apple did for Berkshire at its peak (about 25%), but (a) it may eventually and (b) at 8.5x earnings, it’s not as worrisome as far as overvaluation.
Viking Posted January 19 Posted January 19 (edited) Eurobank is up big to start 2026, ~+829 million. Fairfax is currently trading at 1.4 x YE BV. Cheap. Investors are also getting significant "hidden value" of about $4 to $5 billion for free (Eurobank is about $3 billion). The hidden value can be looked at in two ways: Apply it to current book value. This would add about $155, which would put YE 2025 BV at ~$1,400. This means Fairfax is trading at 'economc' P/BV = 1.25 Apply it to future earnings (via investment gains). This results in a higher ROE. Instead of mid-teens (base case, excluding 'hidden value') we now get high teens. Higher future ROE means Fairfax is worth a much higher multiple (than current 1.4x). The net result is "hidden value" can be and should be included in a valuation of Fairfax. The fact that most investors (and analysts) instead chose to ignore it is fascinating. Edited January 19 by Viking
Duke In Shadows Posted January 19 Posted January 19 On 1/18/2026 at 2:47 PM, hardcorevalue said: These will do well! There's a lot of social media presence for this brand that will have young canadians curious My hot take is that FFH spending $1.2B on Recipe Unlimited was one of its weaker capital allocation decisions of the past decade. It reminds me of BRK buying Kraft or the Buffalo News....great businesses in their day, but bought after the future had already started to shrink. The problem isn’t management, it is the segment. Middle-of-the-road casual dining is getting hollowed out. Consumers are either moving downmarket for the cheapest & fastest option, or upmarket for something genuinely distinctive. I’m 22, and neither I nor my family nor my friends have been to places like Swiss Chalet or Olive Garden in years. They’re simply not in the default choice set anymore. The category is being carried by the 50-plus demographic, not replenished by younger ones. I went to a Swiss Chalet last week for the first time in a couple of years and roughly three-quarters of the dining room was seniors. The quality was subpar as well. From a capital allocation standpoint, it's a terrible place to anchor permanent capital as casual dining has high labor intensity, large footprints, and limited pricing power, so most reinvestment just slows decline rather than compounds value. The ~$80M FCF (as of '21) may hold up for a while, but durability is very uncertain imo. For Fairfax, this is obv a case of buying something familiar and stable. unless something drastically changes I fear I will be proven right on this overtime however the timeline it takes is hard to tell. the blessing is that this will not have a large impact on FFH's overall portfolio.
SafetyinNumbers Posted January 19 Posted January 19 8 minutes ago, Duke In Shadows said: My hot take is that FFH spending $1.2B on Recipe Unlimited was one of its weaker capital allocation decisions of the past decade. It reminds me of BRK buying Kraft or the Buffalo News....great businesses in their day, but bought after the future had already started to shrink. The problem isn’t management, it is the segment. Middle-of-the-road casual dining is getting hollowed out. Consumers are either moving downmarket for the cheapest & fastest option, or upmarket for something genuinely distinctive. I’m 22, and neither I nor my family nor my friends have been to places like Swiss Chalet or Olive Garden in years. They’re simply not in the default choice set anymore. The category is being carried by the 50-plus demographic, not replenished by younger ones. I went to a Swiss Chalet last week for the first time in a couple of years and roughly three-quarters of the dining room was seniors. The quality was subpar as well. From a capital allocation standpoint, it's a terrible place to anchor permanent capital as casual dining has high labor intensity, large footprints, and limited pricing power, so most reinvestment just slows decline rather than compounds value. The ~$80M FCF (as of '21) may hold up for a while, but durability is very uncertain imo. For Fairfax, this is obv a case of buying something familiar and stable. unless something drastically changes I fear I will be proven right on this overtime however the timeline it takes is hard to tell. the blessing is that this will not have a large impact on FFH's overall portfolio. I haven’t taken the time to analyze it closely but from what I can tell, the levered it up to 4x EBITDA on purchase and managed to pay the debt down over that period before relevering it up to buy in the family’s interest and the royalty company. My guess is the return on invested capital exceeds their 15% hurdle rate even if it’s not there on an accounting basis yet (it might be).
Viking Posted January 19 Posted January 19 (edited) 1 hour ago, Duke In Shadows said: My hot take is that FFH spending $1.2B on Recipe Unlimited was one of its weaker capital allocation decisions of the past decade. It reminds me of BRK buying Kraft or the Buffalo News....great businesses in their day, but bought after the future had already started to shrink. The problem isn’t management, it is the segment. Middle-of-the-road casual dining is getting hollowed out. Consumers are either moving downmarket for the cheapest & fastest option, or upmarket for something genuinely distinctive. I’m 22, and neither I nor my family nor my friends have been to places like Swiss Chalet or Olive Garden in years. They’re simply not in the default choice set anymore. The category is being carried by the 50-plus demographic, not replenished by younger ones. I went to a Swiss Chalet last week for the first time in a couple of years and roughly three-quarters of the dining room was seniors. The quality was subpar as well. From a capital allocation standpoint, it's a terrible place to anchor permanent capital as casual dining has high labor intensity, large footprints, and limited pricing power, so most reinvestment just slows decline rather than compounds value. The ~$80M FCF (as of '21) may hold up for a while, but durability is very uncertain imo. For Fairfax, this is obv a case of buying something familiar and stable. unless something drastically changes I fear I will be proven right on this overtime however the timeline it takes is hard to tell. the blessing is that this will not have a large impact on FFH's overall portfolio. @Duke In Shadows, my view is Recipe was a terrible investment for minority shareholders. I think Fairfax took it out at a low price in 2022. The key, as @SafetyinNumbers suggests is what is the capital Fairfax put in (and it's not anywhere near $1.2B). And what is the return the investment is generating today. My guess is the return is solid. Recipe has been an active investment for Fairfax over the past year: Takeout of minority shareholder (16%) - funded by Recipe, I think Takeout of Keg Royalties Income Fund - getting control of Keg banner Purchase of rights to Olive Garden Canada (and 8 locations) Spin-off of Keg out of Recipe I would love to see Recipe do more spin-offs. Quick service. Full-service. Etc. Get entrepreneurs running smaller companies. Hopefully, what they appear to have done with the Keg is foreshadowing what they have planned. I think full service restaurants are having a very good year in Canada (Canadians not travelling to the US - eating out more). We will find out when Fairfax reports year-end results. ---------- PS: When we lived in Langley, BC, Olive Garden was one our favourite restaurants to have a family meal at. I think the banner might do ok. I am watching to see if the long term plan is to build/own or franchise. In the beginning build/own makes sense (to work out the kinks). Longer term, I am hoping they franchise. Edited January 19 by Viking
gfp Posted January 19 Posted January 19 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Haryana said: Gains on mark to market holdings are included in the current quarterly/annual income. Is that income then excluded from the calculation of current quarterly/annual taxation? Yes, there are essentially 3 sets of books. One for IFRS sedar reporting, one for tax accounting, and one for statutory accounting for insurance regulators. (just like Berkshire - the difference between cash taxes due a period and the ever shifting deferred tax liability) Edited January 19 by gfp
gfp Posted January 19 Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, Haryana said: Is tax on all mark to market gain on bond holdings deferred till bonds are sold or matured? Yes
gfp Posted January 19 Posted January 19 Just now, Haryana said: Well thanks, that explains why the average tax rate is lower when MTM gains are higher. I thought it was due to lower tax rate on the capital gain proportion of the overall income. Haryana do you live in a country where you are taxed on unrealized gains on your investments?
Haryana Posted January 19 Posted January 19 Just now, gfp said: Haryana do you live in a country where you are taxed on unrealized gains on your investments? No, I thought that only for corporations. Several years ago, the corporations were required to include MTM gains in their current income by the new accounting regulations of that time. I thought it would increase taxes. For individuals, it is different because they usually never even report the unrealized gains.
Parsad Posted January 19 Posted January 19 48 minutes ago, Viking said: @Duke In Shadows, my view is Recipe was a terrible investment for minority shareholders. I think Fairfax took it out at a low price in 2022. The key, as @SafetyinNumbers suggests is what is the capital Fairfax put in (and it's not anywhere near $1.2B). And what is the return the investment is generating today. My guess is the return is solid. Recipe has been an active investment for Fairfax over the past year: Takeout of minority shareholder (16%) - funded by Recipe, I think Takeout of Keg Royalties Income Fund - getting control of Keg banner Purchase of rights to Olive Garden Canada (and 8 locations) Spin-off of Keg out of Recipe I would love to see Recipe do more spin-offs. Quick service. Full-service. Etc. Get entrepreneurs running smaller companies. Hopefully, what they appear to have done with the Keg is foreshadowing what they have planned. I think full service restaurants are having a very good year in Canada (Canadians not travelling to the US - eating out more). We will find out when Fairfax reports year-end results. ---------- PS: When we lived in Langley, BC, Olive Garden was one our favourite restaurants to have a family meal at. I think the banner might do ok. I am watching to see if the long term plan is to build/own or franchise. In the beginning build/own makes sense (to work out the kinks). Longer term, I am hoping they franchise. That Olive Garden in Langley is still always busy...slower than in the past with the general malaise of consumers eating out...but it remains quite busy and I don't think it will close...unlike other restaurants. Also the deal with Richard Jaffrey and his brand, might open the door to Fairfax acquiring the Fuller Family's chain of restaurants one day (Cactus Club, Earls, Joeys, Birdies). Probably the best run restaurant chain in all of Canada for the last 40 years...on par or better run than The Keg! These are the restaurants my family and I have been going to for the last 30+ years...we hardly ever go to Olive Garden...never to Swiss Chalet! NY Fries at the mall is usually a quick stop for poutine...I think they could grow that brand even more across Canada. Cheers!
Hektor Posted January 19 Posted January 19 3 minutes ago, Parsad said: Olive Garden in Langley is still always busy...slower than in the past Does the slowness include inhouse dining and takeout?
Parsad Posted January 19 Posted January 19 4 minutes ago, Hektor said: Does the slowness include inhouse dining and takeout? That's part of it, but there is a general turndown in how much consumers are eating out...even after including delivery and takeout. Those with money are eating out as usual...me and my family included...the deals and Happy Hours are abundant because restaurants are struggling. Those stretched are making big changes in how they are eating out. How long and how deep is the question. 7,000 restaurants closed in Canada last year...another 4,000 are expected to close this year! Cheers!
Viking Posted January 20 Posted January 20 (edited) On 1/16/2026 at 10:56 AM, Viking said: Commercial International Bank – Great bank. Tough country. (Egypt) 2025 was a fantastic year for Fairfax's equity holdings - the top 10 public holdings delivered a total return of ~47%. Amazing. The performance was broad based - 7 of 10 holdings each delivered a return of better than 30%. One of the holdings, CIB, had a very strong 2025, up 40%. And so far in 2026 it is up another 19%. The strong performance in 2025 has carried over to 2026. Let's review CIB in a little more detail. Commercial International Bank (CIB) is Egypt’s leading private-sector bank and one of the country’s most respected publicly traded companies. Fairfax first invested in CIB in August 2014, committing approximately $330 million. Today, Fairfax owns roughly 6.26% of the company. At current prices: Market value of Fairfax’s stake: ~$553 million Share of Fairfax’s equity portfolio: ~2% of ~$27 billion Recent Performance CIB’s performance over the past year has been exceptional: Market value (Dec 31, 2024): ~$331 million Market value (Jan 15, 2026): ~$553 million Increase: +$222 million (+67%) CIB also pays a dividend, though I have not quantified the cumulative payout over the years. However, this recent strength masks a long period of disappointment. From 2014 to 2024, CIB was a poor investment for Fairfax in USD terms. Returns were likely limited to dividends. Therefore, the opportunity cost of holding the position was substantial. So, What’s Problem? CIB itself is not the problem. It is: Well managed Operationally strong Consistently profitable The issue is location. Egypt—like much of Africa—is politically and economically unstable. Chronic currency depreciation has repeatedly wiped out the benefits of CIB’s strong operating performance for foreign investors. Local-currency success has failed to translate into meaningful USD returns. This is a classic case of a great business trapped in a difficult macro environment. Bottom Line It will be interesting to see how CIB performs moving forward – does business quality (finally) win over country risk? CIB Investor Relations Company web site: https://www.cibeg.com/en/investor-relations Q3-2025 Corporate Presentation: https://www.cibeg.com/-/media/project/downloads/investor-relations/ir-library/ir-and-esg-presentations/2025/3q25-ir-ppt.pdf Comments from Prem about Commercial International Bank from Fairfax’s 2024AR. “Commercial International Bank (CIB) led by Hishan Ezz Al-Arab had very strong results in 2024 with an ROE of 50%, net interest margin of 9.5%, earnings growth of 86% and loan-loss provision coverage ratio of 351%. There is significant hidden value in the build-up of provisions on the balance sheet which, if adjusted for, reduces the price-to-book ratio to 1.2x. Since 2014, the bank has continued to compound book value per share and EPS by nearly 20% per annum. The key driver of value to Fairfax and other foreign investors in CIB is the stability of the Egyptian pound and the development of new businesses within the bank. CIB is close to launching a new tech- enabled business line which caters to retail banking and lower-income markets. CIB’s shares are trading at very attractive levels at 4x earnings. The Egyptian government asset disposal program is well underway with $35 billion committed by the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority to develop the Egyptian North Coast. Many other infrastructure assets including the country’s largest airports will also be sold to address the country’s high sovereign debt. While there is much work to do, opportunity awaits given the relatively low asset prices and size of the market with over 100 million people. Since our purchase of CIB shares, they have increased 664%, compounding at 21% per year in local currency (including dividends). Unfortunately, due to depreciation in the Egyptian pound, our return in US dollars is just 7% or 1% per year.” Prem Watsa – Fairfax 2024AR I wonder if Fairfax has reduced their stake in CIB in 2025. We will find out when we get the 2025 annual report in March (and an updated share count for the big equity holdings). At year end 2024, Fairfax owned 215.5 million shares, or ~7%. In CIB's most recent corporate presentation (Q3-2025) they have Fairfax's ownership stake at 6.26%. Total share count at CIB is 3.07 billion, which puts Fairfax ownership at 192 million shares. So we will see. https://www.cibeg.com/-/media/project/downloads/investor-relations/ir-library/ir-and-esg-presentations/2025/3q25-ir-ppt.pdf Edited January 20 by Viking
LC Posted January 20 Posted January 20 2 hours ago, Haryana said: Several years ago, the corporations were required to include MTM gains in their current income by the new accounting regulations of that time. I thought it would increase taxes. IIRC that was the IFRS rule change which just impacted the P&L. Actual taxes paid are not incurred until something is sold, so you wind up with these big deferred tax amounts on the b/s.
adventurer Posted January 20 Posted January 20 (edited) 6 hours ago, Viking said: I wonder if Fairfax has reduced their stake in CIB in 2025. We will find out when we get the 2025 annual report in March (and an updated share count for the big equity holdings). At year end 2024, Fairfax owned 215.5 million shares, or ~7%. In CIB's most recent corporate presentation (Q3-2025) they have Fairfax's ownership stake at 6.26%. Total share count at CIB is 3.07 billion, which puts Fairfax ownership at 192 million shares. So we will see. https://www.cibeg.com/-/media/project/downloads/investor-relations/ir-library/ir-and-esg-presentations/2025/3q25-ir-ppt.pdf I lean to liking the idea of having this position sold, even if it is painful. Egypt is a military dictatorship. The performance can be best in class. It does not matter if its offset by the depreciation of the currency. Especially for such a long time. Global diversification is a good idea and with Greece you have a very good example where it is paying off. But the political ditch between Egypt and other countries Fairfax is involved in is obviously large and I would like to see a more far-sighted approach from Fairfax. Especially concerning Africa/Middle East. But what do I know about their idea entering in the first place... Edited January 20 by adventurer
Hamburg Investor Posted January 20 Posted January 20 11 hours ago, Haryana said: Well thanks, that explains why the average tax rate is lower when MTM gains are higher. I thought it was due to lower tax rate on the capital gain proportion of the overall income. My best guess is, that most of us are calculating intrinsic value with too high taxes on current growth (e. g. "growth in book value per year"), while the real tax paid on growth is way lower (below 20% or 15% or even lower?). The difference comes from the deferred tax float, if I get it right. I think, that's another mosaic of the bigger picture: Holdings do have so many layers and all too often people tend to build in margins of safety in each layer, sometimes without even realizing. "If you have a hammer, everything looks like a nail" - the same seems to be true for a value investor with the margin of safety. So value investors typically calculate every part within a holding conservatively. And than the small investments are often completely excluded with reference to margin of safety; you wouldn't exclude any earnings income stream at, for example, Meta or Amazon, would you?). But then there is even less risk with FFH than with others. And there's a lag in paying taxes (not calculated by value investor). CR? Let's be conservative. Bond rates? Let's be conservative. Returns on reinvested cash? Let's be conservative. But why? FFH has completely different investment opportunities (bonds, buying shares or wholly owned businesses, buying insurance, buying in different regions, investments into organic growth of subsidiaries, or into insurance growth, TRS, etc.). I don't see e. g. NVIDIA having as much different investment opportunities. If other chips are needed in the world of quantum computers and they are not supposed to be the first, then what? If FFH has invested big in Blackberry and it doesn't pan out, that's manageable. So from a standpoint of risk it should be just the opposite: If you're having one or a few income stream, like e. g. most of the Magical 7 have, than - all else equal, e. g. equal moats - the risk is higher, than at e. g. BRK, FFH, BAM, DHR. Margin of safety is all important; but riskier businesses should be calculated with a higher margin of safety and good holdings like FFH trying to hide assets etc. the opposite, shouldn't they? Otherwise we do not apply the same standards to investments, underestimating some and overestimating others.
jbwent63 Posted January 20 Posted January 20 (edited) 14 hours ago, Viking said: I wonder if Fairfax has reduced their stake in CIB in 2025. We will find out when we get the 2025 annual report in March (and an updated share count for the big equity holdings). At year end 2024, Fairfax owned 215.5 million shares, or ~7%. In CIB's most recent corporate presentation (Q3-2025) they have Fairfax's ownership stake at 6.26%. Total share count at CIB is 3.07 billion, which puts Fairfax ownership at 192 million shares. So we will see. https://www.cibeg.com/-/media/project/downloads/investor-relations/ir-library/ir-and-esg-presentations/2025/3q25-ir-ppt.pdf It looks like the share count is much higher. Per the website, at the end of Q3 there were 3.378 billion shares outstanding, multiplied by 6.26% is about 211.46 million shares owned by Fairfax, so maybe slightly less than Q4-24. Edited January 20 by jbwent63
Hamburg Investor Posted January 20 Posted January 20 On 1/17/2026 at 7:14 PM, Maverick47 said: I think Buffett has occasionally found ways to take large unrealized and tax deferred gains in companies and managed to exit the positions through receiving assets of the companies rather than cash. So in that regard he manages a similar outcome as a 1031 exchange available to real estate investors. Take his long held position in Gillette, which was acquired by Proctor & Gamble. He exited P&G with Duracell instead of cash. With the Washington Post, he exited with their cross holdings in Berkshire stock and some TV stations. Yes, selling is only the "normal" and tax-inefficient way to realise profits. But Buffett in particular was very creative in this regard. I believe that if you gradually buy shares in a company and do not extract assets from the company in exchange for shares (like the Duracell deal), but instead take over the entire company in a final step, this is another way of avoiding paying taxes on the profit.
Viking Posted January 20 Posted January 20 (edited) Orla Mining - OLA.TO – Prospecting for Discovering Gold January 20, 2026 Recent Developments Orla released a production update for Q4-2025. It was better than expected. Orla Mining Achieves Record Quarterly Production Propelling Company Above 300,000 Ounces for 2025, setting up a Catalyst-Rich 2026 https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/orla-mining-achieves-record-quarterly-production-propelling-company-above-300-000-ounces-for-2025-setting-up-a-catalyst-rich-2026-821150642.html Shares are spiking higher. 20 days into 2026, Fairfax’s investment in Orla is up ~$250 million. This is after a $729 million gain in 2025. Yes, Orla has been an outstanding investment. December 31, 2025 Orla Mining Ltd. is a Vancouver-based mining company focused on acquiring, exploring, developing, and operating mineral properties to produce gold, silver, zinc, lead, and copper. Fairfax first invested in Orla between Q3-2022 and Q3-2024, accumulating 56.8 million shares through open-market purchases. In November 2024, Fairfax increased its exposure by investing $150 million in convertible bonds and warrants, bringing its total exposure to 101.9 million shares. On December 5, 2025, Fairfax reduced its position by approximately 25%, selling 25 million shares. Fairfax’s Investment Snapshot As of December 31, 2025: Market value of Fairfax’s stake: ~$1.0 billion Portfolio weight: ~3.8% of Fairfax’s ~$26.7 billion equity portfolio Portfolio rank: Orla is Fairfax’s 4th largest equity holding. Company Website: https://orlamining.com/investors/ Company Presentation: December 2025 https://wp-orlamining-2024.s3.ca-central-1.amazonaws.com/media/2025/12/Orla-Corporate-Presentation-12-2025.pdf Performance in 2025 With gold prices surging, 2025 performance was exceptional: Total return: +$729 million Continuing position: +$551 million Shares sold: +$177 million (128% return) Orla has quickly become one of Fairfax’s best investments in recent years. Return on Shares Sold in 2025 On December 5, 2025, Fairfax announced the sale of 25 million shares for $316 million (roughly 25% of its total position, including convertibles and warrants). Performance on shares sold: Cost: ~$98 million ($3.94 per share) Sale price: $316 million ($12.64 per share) Profit: $218 million (~$8.71 per share) Return: 221% Fairfax invested a total of $374 million in Orla ($224 million equity + $150 million convertibles). This partial sale returned a significant amount of its original investment. A Lesson in Capital Allocation In 2022, Fairfax sold Resolute Forest Products for a premium price at the top of the lumber cycle. Late in 2024, they sold Stelco to Cleveland Cliffs at a premium price, capitalizing on the acquisition mania in steel producers. And now they are selling 25% or Orla for another big gain. This is just the latest example of Fairfax’s management team executing at a very high level. Over the past five years, they have been putting on a master class in capital allocation. Why Is Orla Surging? Orla’s share price has been on fire over the past 18 months: June 30, 2024: $3.90 December 31, 2025: $13.45 Gain: +245% What is going on? Gold is widely viewed as a hedge against: Uncertainty Inflation Today, we have both. It should not surprise anyone that gold prices have been ripping higher — and that Orla’s share price has followed. Where Do We Go from Here? President Trump is still early in his second term. My guess is elevated uncertainty will persist for at least the next three years. Tariffs are central to Trump’s economic strategy. Tariffs are inflationary. My expectation is inflation remains elevated (around 3%?) for several more years. Bottom line: The current bull market in gold could continue for a few more years. If so, Fairfax’s investment in Orla may just be getting started. The Investment Thesis With its investment in Orla, Fairfax is effectively betting on: Gold prices staying higher for longer. Above-average management at Orla, capable of transforming the company from a two-asset producer into a multi-asset, intermediate-sized gold producer. A strong ownership group — Fairfax, Fidelity, Pierre Lassonde — which enables long-term thinking and rational, shareholder-friendly capital allocation. Fairfax planted another seed in its equity portfolio. In a short time, it has already turned into another home run. It will be fascinating to see whether gold’s improbable march higher continues. Partnering With Proven Winners Fairfax is not blindly speculating in commodities. They are consistently partnering with world-class operators and investors. Jurisdiction Matters The majority of Fairfax’s resource investments are located in North America — a far lower-risk jurisdiction than many global mining regions. This is no accident. All of Orla’s producing assets are in North America. Experience Matters Yes, Orla looks like a terrific investment for Fairfax. But there is a bigger lesson here. Fairfax has a deeply seasoned investment team — both at corporate and at Hamblin Watsa. Some team members were active investors in the 1970s and 1980s, the last sustained inflationary period. That experience likely contributed to Fairfax initiating this position back in 2022. In an environment of high uncertainty and persistent inflation, experience matters more than ever. Fairfax appears extremely well positioned not just to survive — but to thrive. Orla is a real-world example of that advantage. Comments about Orla Mining from Prem from Fairfax’s 2024AR. Orla Mining, run by Jason Simpson and his exceptional team, had a transformative 2024. In November, Orla announced the acquisition of the Musselwhite gold mine in Ontario from Newmont. Fairfax participated via a $150 million investment in convertible bonds (4.5% coupon, Cdn$7.90 conversion price and 0.66 of a warrant with a Cdn$11.50 per share exercise price). Musselwhite is a low-cost, long-life asset in one of the best mining jurisdictions in the world. The addition of Musselwhite will more than double Orla’s annual gold production to approximately 300,000 ounces a year. Orla’s Camino Rojo open pit mine in Mexico continues to perform extremely well, producing approximately 137,000 ounces of gold in 2024. Exploration activity at Camino is indicating the viability of an underground mine at the site with attractive economics. Lastly, progress continues to be made in permitting their South Railroad mine in Nevada.South Railroad is likely to be a low-cost mine with high free-cash flow. Orla generates attractive levels of free cash flow and has ample liquidity to fund its development and exploration activity. Orla is carried at its listed price of $5.47 per share (Cdn$7.87) or $311 million. Prem Watsa – Fairfax 2024AR Edited January 20 by Viking
Duke In Shadows Posted January 21 Posted January 21 (edited) 5 hours ago, Viking said: Orla Mining - OLA.TO – Prospecting for Discovering Gold January 20, 2026 Recent Developments Orla released a production update for Q4-2025. It was better than expected. Orla Mining Achieves Record Quarterly Production Propelling Company Above 300,000 Ounces for 2025, setting up a Catalyst-Rich 2026 https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/orla-mining-achieves-record-quarterly-production-propelling-company-above-300-000-ounces-for-2025-setting-up-a-catalyst-rich-2026-821150642.html Shares are spiking higher. 20 days into 2026, Fairfax’s investment in Orla is up ~$250 million. This is after a $729 million gain in 2025. Yes, Orla has been an outstanding investment. December 31, 2025 Orla Mining Ltd. is a Vancouver-based mining company focused on acquiring, exploring, developing, and operating mineral properties to produce gold, silver, zinc, lead, and copper. Fairfax first invested in Orla between Q3-2022 and Q3-2024, accumulating 56.8 million shares through open-market purchases. In November 2024, Fairfax increased its exposure by investing $150 million in convertible bonds and warrants, bringing its total exposure to 101.9 million shares. On December 5, 2025, Fairfax reduced its position by approximately 25%, selling 25 million shares. Fairfax’s Investment Snapshot As of December 31, 2025: Market value of Fairfax’s stake: ~$1.0 billion Portfolio weight: ~3.8% of Fairfax’s ~$26.7 billion equity portfolio Portfolio rank: Orla is Fairfax’s 4th largest equity holding. Company Website: https://orlamining.com/investors/ Company Presentation: December 2025 https://wp-orlamining-2024.s3.ca-central-1.amazonaws.com/media/2025/12/Orla-Corporate-Presentation-12-2025.pdf Performance in 2025 With gold prices surging, 2025 performance was exceptional: Total return: +$729 million Continuing position: +$551 million Shares sold: +$177 million (128% return) Orla has quickly become one of Fairfax’s best investments in recent years. Return on Shares Sold in 2025 On December 5, 2025, Fairfax announced the sale of 25 million shares for $316 million (roughly 25% of its total position, including convertibles and warrants). Performance on shares sold: Cost: ~$98 million ($3.94 per share) Sale price: $316 million ($12.64 per share) Profit: $218 million (~$8.71 per share) Return: 221% Fairfax invested a total of $374 million in Orla ($224 million equity + $150 million convertibles). This partial sale returned a significant amount of its original investment. A Lesson in Capital Allocation In 2022, Fairfax sold Resolute Forest Products for a premium price at the top of the lumber cycle. Late in 2024, they sold Stelco to Cleveland Cliffs at a premium price, capitalizing on the acquisition mania in steel producers. And now they are selling 25% or Orla for another big gain. This is just the latest example of Fairfax’s management team executing at a very high level. Over the past five years, they have been putting on a master class in capital allocation. Why Is Orla Surging? Orla’s share price has been on fire over the past 18 months: June 30, 2024: $3.90 December 31, 2025: $13.45 Gain: +245% What is going on? Gold is widely viewed as a hedge against: Uncertainty Inflation Today, we have both. It should not surprise anyone that gold prices have been ripping higher — and that Orla’s share price has followed. Where Do We Go from Here? President Trump is still early in his second term. My guess is elevated uncertainty will persist for at least the next three years. Tariffs are central to Trump’s economic strategy. Tariffs are inflationary. My expectation is inflation remains elevated (around 3%?) for several more years. Bottom line: The current bull market in gold could continue for a few more years. If so, Fairfax’s investment in Orla may just be getting started. The Investment Thesis With its investment in Orla, Fairfax is effectively betting on: Gold prices staying higher for longer. Above-average management at Orla, capable of transforming the company from a two-asset producer into a multi-asset, intermediate-sized gold producer. A strong ownership group — Fairfax, Fidelity, Pierre Lassonde — which enables long-term thinking and rational, shareholder-friendly capital allocation. Fairfax planted another seed in its equity portfolio. In a short time, it has already turned into another home run. It will be fascinating to see whether gold’s improbable march higher continues. Partnering With Proven Winners Fairfax is not blindly speculating in commodities. They are consistently partnering with world-class operators and investors. Jurisdiction Matters The majority of Fairfax’s resource investments are located in North America — a far lower-risk jurisdiction than many global mining regions. This is no accident. All of Orla’s producing assets are in North America. Experience Matters Yes, Orla looks like a terrific investment for Fairfax. But there is a bigger lesson here. Fairfax has a deeply seasoned investment team — both at corporate and at Hamblin Watsa. Some team members were active investors in the 1970s and 1980s, the last sustained inflationary period. That experience likely contributed to Fairfax initiating this position back in 2022. In an environment of high uncertainty and persistent inflation, experience matters more than ever. Fairfax appears extremely well positioned not just to survive — but to thrive. Orla is a real-world example of that advantage. Comments about Orla Mining from Prem from Fairfax’s 2024AR. Orla Mining, run by Jason Simpson and his exceptional team, had a transformative 2024. In November, Orla announced the acquisition of the Musselwhite gold mine in Ontario from Newmont. Fairfax participated via a $150 million investment in convertible bonds (4.5% coupon, Cdn$7.90 conversion price and 0.66 of a warrant with a Cdn$11.50 per share exercise price). Musselwhite is a low-cost, long-life asset in one of the best mining jurisdictions in the world. The addition of Musselwhite will more than double Orla’s annual gold production to approximately 300,000 ounces a year. Orla’s Camino Rojo open pit mine in Mexico continues to perform extremely well, producing approximately 137,000 ounces of gold in 2024. Exploration activity at Camino is indicating the viability of an underground mine at the site with attractive economics. Lastly, progress continues to be made in permitting their South Railroad mine in Nevada.South Railroad is likely to be a low-cost mine with high free-cash flow. Orla generates attractive levels of free cash flow and has ample liquidity to fund its development and exploration activity. Orla is carried at its listed price of $5.47 per share (Cdn$7.87) or $311 million. Prem Watsa – Fairfax 2024AR one correction or nuance here would be on Jurisdiction. saying "North America is a far lower risk jurisdiction" is so broad based it's not accurate. for example operating Nevada is amazing, California is terrible. Mexico (where ORLA has an asset) is today a quite poor jurisdiction with moderate to high risk. While many non-north american jurisdictions such as Western Australia, Queensland or Botswana rank far higher on mining attractiveness indexes. Edited January 21 by Duke In Shadows
Jaygo Posted January 21 Posted January 21 On 1/19/2026 at 3:39 PM, Duke In Shadows said: My hot take is that FFH spending $1.2B on Recipe Unlimited was one of its weaker capital allocation decisions of the past decade. It reminds me of BRK buying Kraft or the Buffalo News....great businesses in their day, but bought after the future had already started to shrink. The problem isn’t management, it is the segment. Middle-of-the-road casual dining is getting hollowed out. Consumers are either moving downmarket for the cheapest & fastest option, or upmarket for something genuinely distinctive. I’m 22, and neither I nor my family nor my friends have been to places like Swiss Chalet or Olive Garden in years. They’re simply not in the default choice set anymore. The category is being carried by the 50-plus demographic, not replenished by younger ones. I went to a Swiss Chalet last week for the first time in a couple of years and roughly three-quarters of the dining room was seniors. The quality was subpar as well. From a capital allocation standpoint, it's a terrible place to anchor permanent capital as casual dining has high labor intensity, large footprints, and limited pricing power, so most reinvestment just slows decline rather than compounds value. The ~$80M FCF (as of '21) may hold up for a while, but durability is very uncertain imo. For Fairfax, this is obv a case of buying something familiar and stable. unless something drastically changes I fear I will be proven right on this overtime however the timeline it takes is hard to tell. the blessing is that this will not have a large impact on FFH's overall portfolio. I largely agree intuitively but in reality you and I are wrong. it is really important to try and look at life / relationships / investing etc through other peoples eyes. I personally think most of the recipe resto's are pure shit but they do attract a certain clientele and I think there is a lot of juice to squeeze out of the boomers. I think many young like yourself don't realize how much money is sitting in accounts of the boomers who may be too weary to travel, to weak to ski and for whom going out to a restaurant is the most exciting thing they can do. They want something brightly lit ( bad eyes ) not too much character ( not cool and definitely not noisy ), reliable taste ( bland ) and the recipe banner fits this perfectly. I think they will get a decent return on recipe and once the category ages out completely they can wind down what's not working or sell it to PE
villainx Posted January 21 Posted January 21 2 hours ago, Jaygo said: boomers who may be too weary to travel, to weak to ski and for whom going out to a restaurant is the most exciting thing they can do. They want something brightly lit ( bad eyes ) not too much character ( not cool and definitely not noisy ), reliable taste ( bland ) and the recipe banner fits this perfectly. That's too mean! Unless you are talking about someone else.
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