2907 days until President 46th

[Cardboard]

I think that I will update the countdown everyday for our friends from the Left.  ;D

 

And what a pick for the Supreme Court last night:

 

http://www.cnn.com/2017/01/31/politics/donald-trump-supreme-court-announcement/

 

And he should last well beyond Trump!

 

Cardboard

 

 

[no_free_lunch]

I am on your side, more or less, but this is not constructive.

[rogermunibond]

2018 midterm will be interesting.

[berkshiremystery]

I think that I will update the countdown everyday for our friends from the Left.  ;D

 

And what a pick for the Supreme Court last night:

;)

http://www.cnn.com/2017/01/31/politics/donald-trump-supreme-court-announcement/

 

And he should last well beyond Trump!

 

Cardboard

 

Hey, my dear friends cardboard & no_free_lunch,...  ;D

 

I just had a nap, woke up again, you made my day 

 

Good to have humble friends, I always enjoyed your gracious opinions.

Friends are like stars, you not always see them, but they are always there.

 

Awesome pick, i agree,... I freely join your daily countdown for 202O ;)

 

While taking nap, i made the decision to 'support' some awesome new project of a courageous humble person,... as probably the major backer. Project has already, currently over 100,000 members,... with some decent growth predicted til 2020. Awesome, well publicly known famous intellectual's from academia and authors have there, their free choice of speech,

free minds for free markets....  ;D

 

 

berkshiremystery

 

 

[ScottHall]

It will be a sad day for America when Trump leaves office. America's story is his story now, and as the standard bearer of our nation we must do all we can to support and protect the first family while they Make America Great Again.

 

My only fear is that too much damage has been done under 8 years of Obama for Trump to fix all of his messes by the end of his second term, and we'll be right back to politics as usual afterwards with big government bloat, partisan gridlock and an America brought to her knees at the hands of a weak Jimmy Carter-style president who inspires NOBODY.

 

This is our one chance and we cannot screw it up. While Trump focuses on fixing America, we should engage our representatives to repeal the undemocratic 22nd Amendment and allow the voice of the people to be heard again. No more artificial restrictions; leadership continuity is so important as always, but especially now. Eight year terms are simply too short to allow a president to implement the full extent of his world view on the global stage!

[AzCactus]

I'm probably missing something here but isn't 2907 days about 8 years. Does this assume he gets re-elected after less than a month in office ?

[Mephistopheles]

I'm probably missing something here but isn't 2907 days about 8 years. Does this assume he gets re-elected after less than a month in office ?

 

He won't get re-elected because he won't be up for re-election.

[Jurgis]

I can't outdo ScottHall - he's the best - but I still decided to become Trumpian. I'm a rich white guy for x sakes! Go Trump! Screw Muslims, immigrants, women, working class, Mexicans, Democrats, Europe and all the other low energy people. Down with government shit. No taxes baby! Who needs EPA, NASA, public schools, abortions, and assisted suicide. Actually who needs the obstructionist Congress and Senate? Just give this guy unlimited power - none of that lawsuits against EO crybaby business.

 

Gonna buy myself a ranch on DAPL, a bunch of guns and f u commie city liberals.

 

There you go.

 

Born again Jurgis

 

Edit: this is so f liberating! You guys should try it too! Don't be gov't slaves!

 

[dyow]

For trump supporters, you are really fighting a losing a battle.

 

Obama got elected bc you had a crazy hillbilly from the sticks (and ex coke head) who decided to invade countries just because he felt like it.

 

The love for obama came from hatred towards bush (and his hillbilly followers).

 

The love for trump came from hatred towards obama (and his tree hugger followers).

 

Your next president will probably be someone that is the opposite of Chump, maybe a lesbian minority or something along those lines, which is gonna be payback.  and the cycle will continue. Why does everything have to be so extreme with you guys?   

 

Honestly, long-term, it's not looking good for you guys in the US.  If you use a stock analogy US is kinda like Sears. 

     

[DooDiligence]

I can't outdo ScottHall - he's the best - but I still decided to become Trumpian. I'm a rich white guy for x sakes! Go Trump! Screw Muslims, immigrants, women, working class, Mexicans, Democrats, Europe and all the other low energy people. Down with government shit. No taxes baby! Who needs EPA, NASA, public schools, abortions, and assisted suicide. Actually who needs the obstructionist Congress and Senate? Just give this guy unlimited power - none of that lawsuits against EO crybaby business.

 

Gonna buy myself a ranch on DAPL, a bunch of guns and f u commie city liberals.

 

There you go.

 

Born again Jurgis

 

Edit: this is so f liberating! You guys should try it too! Don't be gov't slaves!

 

I heard there's a vidi on the net of Hillary peeing on the Donald (she told him she'd throw the election if he'd let her do it...)

[Tim Eriksen]

For trump supporters, you are really fighting a losing a battle.

 

Obama got elected bc you had a crazy hillbilly from the sticks (and ex coke head) who decided to invade countries just because he felt like it.

 

The love for obama came from hatred towards bush (and his hillbilly followers).

 

The love for trump came from hatred towards obama (and his tree hugger followers).

 

Your next president will probably be someone that is the opposite of Chump, maybe a lesbian minority or something along those lines, which is gonna be payback.  and the cycle will continue. Why does everything have to be so extreme with you guys?   

 

Honestly, long-term, it's not looking good for you guys in the US.  If you use a stock analogy US is kinda like Sears. 

   

 

Your ignorance of US politics is astounding.    Sure there is a pendelum aspect with "cycles" of 8-12 years since Carter, but you would have been way closer to quote Carville "it's the economy stupid" as the reasons for each swing.

[rb]

Only in republican circles the economy sucked in 2000 and 2016.

[Poor Charlie]

Wow!  A big thanks to all the political commentators for this first-class exhibition of drivel—You’ve reminded me what the breakdown of otherwise well-functioning cognition looks like and why I never want to go there.

[John Hjorth]

..., but this is not constructive.

 

I'm with no_free_luch here. To me, [by that phrase I mean: It's not for discussion on this board, how I perceive this topic], it's just [yet another] political board spam topic.

 

Let's all go back to discuss investing.

[Tim Eriksen]

Only in republican circles the economy sucked in 2000 and 2016.

 

What??  2000 was not even referenced in the post.  The post started with Bush in office.  If you don't think the weaker economy in the rust belt had any effect then you need to do more reading.    It doesn't take a national issue like 2008.  Regional can matter too. 

[AzCactus]

I'm not really into politics but it sounds like most people would be better served using their mental energy for other endeavors. 

[SharperDingaan]

For those of us a little more commercially minded ;)

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/us-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=2657726

 

I understand that supposedly 9 of the last 10 US presidents had assassination attempts on them, and that the odds on impeachment are usually around 4:1 – about the same as for assassination. Donald’s doing 4-5x that.

 

And ... as Paddy Power is Irish – a win would be tax free

Even the Donald would approve  :D

 

SD 

 

[rkbabang]

I'll make a prediction right now that Trump is re-elected and serves 8 full years. That is as long as he stays healthy, he is 70.

[DooDiligence]

..., but this is not constructive.

 

I'm with no_free_luch here. To me, [by that phrase I mean: It's not for discussion on this board, how I perceive this topic], it's just [yet another] political board spam topic.

 

Let's all go back to discuss investing.

 

++ for yours & AzCactus's suggestion

[valcont]

 

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/no-gday-mate-on-call-with-australian-pm-trump-badgers-and-brags/2017/02/01/88a3bfb0-e8bf-11e6-80c2-30e57e57e05d_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_trumpaustralia-815pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.e7cb44811e2c

 

 

I may vote for him next time because I have never been entertained so much by a real life show. There is something to look forward to everyday.

[loganc]

Only in republican circles the economy sucked in 2000 and 2016.

 

What??  2000 was not even referenced in the post.  The post started with Bush in office.  If you don't think the weaker economy in the rust belt had any effect then you need to do more reading.    It doesn't take a national issue like 2008.  Regional can matter too.

 

Against my better judgement, I am going to try to shift this political discussion to something that is more relevant to investing.

 

Tim,

 

I have seen some of your investing commentary and I respect that you are thoughtful in that regard.  I have also seen some of your political commentary and would say that I am generally in disagreement with respect to Trump.  To be clear, I am certainly no "Liberal" as it pertains to economic policy.  Given that I haven't read everything you have written on all things Trump, I am going to make some assumptions here about your support for his economic agenda generally and as it pertains to trade.  If I am wrong about this, I apologize.

 

That being said, I am curious as to why you think the Trump economic policies that we can make reasonable predictions about at this point are going to actually help, rather than hurt, the rust belt areas.  Specifically, I think it is pretty clear at this point that there will be some sort of anti-free trade legislation passed in some form.  Given the EOs so far, the Trump trade rhetoric during the campaign, and the commentary from Navarro, I believe that is a near certainty that either (1) the corporate tax reform bill will include some sort of border adjustment tax or other measure that will be a de facto tariff on imports or (2) direct tariffs or border taxes (the same thing) will be implemented against China, Mexico, etc.

 

I am in agreement that things like lower tax rates (individual and corporate) and deregulatory measures will be of some help to the rust belt areas.  However, it seems to me that there is a very high likelihood that border adjustment taxes or tariffs are going to ultimately be a net negative.  I am EXTREMELY skeptical that such anti-free trade measures will ultimately result in any significant increases in jobs for low skilled labor and that the nearly certain rise in consumer prices will be a net negative for these individuals.  Further, the second order effects from ad hoc economic policy (e.g. border tax on Mexico to pay for the wall) are very likely in my view to have very negative unintended consequences.

 

So, I am just curious if you have any specific empirical data that would support the notion that a border adjustment tax or some similar measure will yield a significant net positive benefit to low skilled labor in the rust belt.

[rb]

Only in republican circles the economy sucked in 2000 and 2016.

 

What??  2000 was not even referenced in the post.  The post started with Bush in office.  If you don't think the weaker economy in the rust belt had any effect then you need to do more reading.    It doesn't take a national issue like 2008.  Regional can matter too.

 

Tim,

 

I'm sorry, I thought that the post was about presidential switches between parties every 8 years or so. You mentioned the economy so I thought it was relevant. In 2000 the economy was doing well and then republicans won the presidency with a program of top end tax cuts and deregulation and then bricked the economy.

 

In 2008 it was of course all about the economy. Id you weren't concerned about the economy. Also around that time regarding the mid-west I remember that it was the Democrats who supported the auto bailout and the republicans strongly opposed it. It pays for people to have short memories i guess.

 

In 2016 maybe it was the I'm sure it was the economy to some extent. As someone once said: "There is no such thing as a recession. If you have a job life is good. If you don't have a job then it's a depression". However if you look at the mid-western swing states: say Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Iowa, their unemployment is generally below US average and below their 2007 levels. The 2 exceptions to that rule are Michigan where unemployment is above US average (but its been thus for a long time) but it's still below its 2007 level. The other is Penn which about even with the US but about 1% above it's 2007 level.

 

I know there are still issues around under-employment and such. But the economic situation in the mid-west is not as dire as put forward. Definitely a long way from being dire or apocalyptic or anything like that. In addition if one were to look at New Hampshire the unemployment there is really low but the election was really tight as well. So while the economy was probably a factor to some extent I'm sure it wasn't the most important one by far.

 

Now you have a new administration coming on a message of top tax cuts and deregulation. -- I know I've heard that before somewhere.... ??? Now I should say that I'm not a fan of regulation. Definitely for regulation sake. But there are some areas where regulations are heavily merited. Off the top of my head:

1. Essential services. You don't get to drive up prices like crazy with small alterations in supply.

2. The environment. You don't get to pollute the water just because it's good for business. Sorry.

3. Financial services. You don't get to destroy the financial system. This is one I know quite a bit about and I can say that as a matter of course it need a lot of regulation especially around items like derivatives and prop trading. Since we tend to be Buffett fans on this board I would like to direct members to the 2002-2005 annual reports and their descriptions of BRK derivatives adventure post acquisition of GenRe and the losses they took to eliminate that risk in an up market. If Warren wouldn't have taken those action BRK may not have been with us today let alone given up their gains from the 2008 period. I'm sorry but our financial system cannot be based on the idea the every FI head or MD is as wise as Warren Buffett.

 

In addition the current administration wants to remove the Obama fiduciary rule. That regulation states that an advisor has to act as a fiduciary. Every honest advisor's reaction when that was passed was "Huh? That wasn't there already?". That's the correct reaction. Every client or 4th grader would have had the same reaction. Why the rush to undue it i wonder?

[rb]

 

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/no-gday-mate-on-call-with-australian-pm-trump-badgers-and-brags/2017/02/01/88a3bfb0-e8bf-11e6-80c2-30e57e57e05d_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_trumpaustralia-815pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.e7cb44811e2c

 

 

I may vote for him next time because I have never been entertained so much by a real life show. There is something to look forward to everyday.

Dude, this is why we have novels and Hollywood. That way we can let Bruce Willis save the world. We don't have to play real life russian roulette. "Oh let's see what happens if i press this!"

 

America is a great and powerful nation. However a lot of time it tends to overestimate its abilities. Not long ago it declared that they will "go it alone". It didn't end up so well. Now America seem again to be determined to gratuitously alienate its friends.Now this version may be more exhilarating but i still prefer the one where Bruce Willis does the work.

[rb]

@rb Can you please modify your response to my post in a formatting that is decipherable?  I think you are probably trying to argue against me when I agree with much of your politics. 

lognac,

 

I don't think that I've replied to your post. Putting all that aside, I don't know exactly what you mean. My post was in plain English text and I can see it with no problem. I don't know what you mean by formatting that is decipherable. Can you send me a screen grab? Maybe we're having a technical issue.

[loganc]

@rb Can you please modify your response to my post in a formatting that is decipherable?  I think you are probably trying to argue against me when I agree with much of your politics. 

lognac,

 

I don't think that I've replied to your post. Putting all that aside, I don't know exactly what you mean. My post was in plain English text and I can see it with no problem. I don't know what you mean by formatting that is decipherable. Can you send me a screen grab? Maybe we're having a technical issue.

 

I misread your post.  I apologize.