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Tim Eriksen

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Everything posted by Tim Eriksen

  1. It is a bit weird but PIF3 has different setup than PIF2 and PIF4. PIF3 says year end allocation while PIF2 and PIF4 have valuation dates triggered by redemptions or contributions.
  2. From the annual report, if more than $25,000 comes into or out of the partnership, incentive fees are assessed whether or not it is the end of the year. To be fair what they would have to do is pro-rate the 6% hurdle for a partial year and assess incentive fees if any were earned. That way everyone is treated equally and the NAV can be the same for all. Thus it would be impossible to come in above the HWM since the new addition would trigger assessment of incentive fees.
  3. This is a bold accusation. My understanding is that new investors come in at all time high water mark - NOT from purchase price. IF I'm correct in this understanding, would you agree that your scheme above would not be accurate? GP doesn't get paid until they've made 6% compounded annually from all time high water mark. Thus, if someone buys in today, NAV would have to compound at 6% annually from Dec 2017 high. Maybe some funds do it that way, but I have never seen it. Since incentive fees are usually charged at year end, it is the year end high water mark (not all time) that matters. Typically new investors come in at the current NAV which is that investor's high water mark. Even new money for existing investors is blended so that once the dollar difference between current value and the high water mark for incentive fees is hit they are charged incentive fees.
  4. For 2020 first quarter: PIF2 -33.7%. PIF3 -27.7%. PIF4 -40.4%. S&P 500 was -19.6%, NASDAQ -13.9%. PIF2 Annualized return NET since October 2000 is 9.6%. S&P 500 is 5.1%, NASDAQ 4.9%. (even with market since June 2002) PIF3 Annualized return NET since February 2002 is 8.2% S&P 500 is 6.8%, NASDAQ 9.1% PIF4 Annualized return NET since October 2003 is 5.0% S&P 500 is 8.1%, NASDAQ 10.5%. For informational purposes. I am not trying to pick on the guy.
  5. In general they trade at a multiple of AUM; however since fees vary widely versus twenty years ago that greatly impacts the valuation. A sub-advisor earning 30 bps or a fixed income manager earning 40-50 bps is not near the same as an equity manager at 80-120 bps. ETF have even lower fees, hedge funds much higher. Then you factor in operating margin. Traditionally average 30-35% but some are clearly take a bigger piece of the pie than others. So basically I guess it is really based on free cash flow and not AUM. :) Look at fund performance (actual investing) and fund flows (which shows how good the marketing is).
  6. PICO Holdings (PICO) - water rights in Nevada and Arizona JG Boswell (BWEL) - water rights in California and Australia
  7. Margins and return on invested capital is not the same. A grocer can earn high returns (plus 20 pct) with low margins, high volume. Thanks, but how does that differ from market investing using leverage? Was the grocery business thought so stable that one could use greater leverage? (I assume it is not thought so anymore.) Totally unrelated. Borrowing to invest in the market expecting to earn a rate higher than your cost of debt is not the same as a business with low margins and high turnover. It doesn't necessarily require debt. A 3% profit margin that is achieved six times a year is a roughly 18% return on capital.
  8. Am I missing something? Relatively costless policy changes???? Aren't the proposals massively costly? In the trillions in terms of the US economy.
  9. “You shall not oppress a hired worker who is poor and needy, whether he is one of your brothers or one of the sojourners who are in your land within your towns. You shall give him his wages on the same day, before the sun sets (for he is poor and counts on it), lest he cry against you to the Lord, and you be guilty of sin." - Deuteronomy 24:14,15 Should there be fees for the worker to access what they are due? I don't think so. Why should the laborer have to provide what is effectively an interest free loan to the employer. I am generally on the conservative end of the spectrum, but that doesn't mean employers should take advantage of workers. It seems to me eventually technology will make daily pay or "advances" easier, and government will compel it by law. If men were angels government wouldn't be necessary. The truth is, men (and women) aren't, therefore if employers won't do the right thing voluntarily it must be compelled. Fair pay (minimum wage) and timely pay. I would love to see the whole payday loan industry be put to death. It is not a service. It is abusive, sick and shameful.
  10. For 2019 first half: PIF2 3.8%. PIF3 2.2%. PIF4 14.6%. S&P 500 was 18.5%, NASDAQ 21.3%. PIF2 Annualized return since October 2000 is 12.2%. S&P 500 is 6.0%, NASDAQ 5.3%. PIF3 Annualized return since February 2002 is 10.0% S&P 500 is 7.8%, NASDAQ 9.7% PIF4 Annualized return since October 2003 is 8.5% S&P 500 is 9.3%, NASDAQ 11.3%. quote from the letter "These last twenty years have been filled with tremendous learning and fun. I have taken plenty of arrows in the back. Made a zillion mistakes. I can honestly say that today I am at the top of my game. I am the best I have ever been as an investor."
  11. $50 billion gain means the half they purchased in the 1970's for $47 million is now worth $25 billion. WOW Is the $50 billion realistic? Underwriting pre-tax was $2.4 billion. GEICO has $22 billion of float out of BRK's $123 billion. Investment income was $5.5 billion, or about 4.5% of float. If I attribute 1/6 of that to GEICO that is another $0.9 billion. Total pre-tax would be $3.3 billion. 16x pre-tax or about 20x after tax for a best in class, strong grower.
  12. After the meeting at the Willow Oak event I spoke with a guy who said he was the one who asked the question. I had skipped out of that part of the meeting so I can't confirm it was him. He was annoyed that Buffett didn't really answer the question. The guy said he purposely included arbitrage because he said that Alice Schroeder had told him that Buffett had said to her that he believed he could make 50% annually in treasury arbitrage.
  13. I don't think they are out yet. The nine month results someone passed on to me were not good. PIF2 -26.4%, PIF 3 -32.8% and PIF4 -10.5%. Rain Industries continued to fall in Q4 from 166 to 134. It is currently at 116.75. For 2018: PIF2 -35.3%. PIF3 -41.9%. PIF4 -22.8%. PIF2 Annualized return since October 2000 is 12.3%. S&P500 is 5.1%. PIF3 Annualized return since February 2002 is 10.2% S&P500 is 7.0% PIF4 Annualized return since October 2003 is 7.8% S&P500 is 8.4%.
  14. I don't think they are out yet. The nine month results someone passed on to me were not good. PIF2 -26.4%, PIF 3 -32.8% and PIF4 -10.5%. Rain Industries continued to fall in Q4 from 166 to 134. It is currently at 116.75.
  15. If Og is the same Eric Schleien who plead guilty to this then I understand the concern https://www.eagletribune.com/news/new_hampshire/schleien-pleads-guilty-to-assault-on-teen/article_3807787a-106c-52b7-822a-3f9759c02453.html
  16. Yes, although it includes related persons, so it if it is a larger fund it would include all the employees.
  17. It is completely wrong for the step mother to put any pressure on her. As others have said you need to find out additional information. Where are 2017 numbers?? Was the father involved in the operations? Was he drawing a salary or other benefits (medical, life insurance, season tickets)? Other deductions is a large % of revenue. Is it utilities and other normal expenses? Does the step mom work in the business? Is she drawing any benefits? The offer price is below book value which is extremely low in comparison to earnings. Return on equity is above 50%. The offer is below the cash in the business. Retained earnings has decreased over the last few years even though income is positive. Someone took a large draw. You have to answer these questions before you know for sure. On the surface it is a ridiculously low offer. Your gf may want to offer her mom 5k more for her step mom's share and see how she reacts. Structure it so the business repurchases the half interest using its cash. Or... Why sell at all? Could they set up an LLC and structure it so she receives the same payments as the step mom??
  18. That is more of a byproduct of Title IX. Very few sports are profitable. It is my understanding that NCAA CFB teams must have 65 scholarship athletes meaning there must be 65 female scholarship athletes regardless of whether the sport is profitable.
  19. Forbes has an article on the revenue and profitability of college football teams. Surprisingly, the most profitable program was Texas A&M. Go Ags! https://www.forbes.com/sites/chrissmith/2018/09/11/college-footballs-most-valuable-teams/#3ae541ef6c64
  20. It is interesting. Higher than I would have guessed. Not sure why the writer said "Income accrued within retirement accounts is tax free." Tax-deferred is a more appropriate description.
  21. The Buffett fee column is incorrect.
  22. Minimum net worth requirements in order to charge incentive fees are the same for SMA's and hedge funds. Both are the higher amount. My fund's annual admin, tax, and audit runs about 23k annually. The expense is shared by all partners, GP included. I found SMAs less sticky. The client questions everything, especially positions that go down.
  23. Agree. Not just price. If "only price" were true you could sit on an investment for years w/o showing Buffett's 20+% returns. Have seen this first-hand waiting on cigar puffs to yield large gains. Prior to, there were many years of zero yield crops. Shouldn't a value investor try to assess which catalyst will catapult price? And once established, shouldn't the "when" question follow? Cigar butts often aren't growing intrinsic value. Thus the discount is deceptive. Looking for a catalyst in a stock, or becoming it in Sandborn Maps, is not market timing. Market timing is basing your decision to buy based on overall market valuation and/or direction.
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