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Your 2017 Best Ideas


doughishere
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Energold Drilling.  A vertically integrated driller with activity in oil, mineral exploration, and telecom/water.

 

Fred Davidson is an owner-operator who has been through many cycles. The mineral cycle is starting to turn and oil sands drilling is picking up again. Should be a good year of revenue and margin expansion.  It has been a rough 3 years but they have preserved the balance sheet and stand to benefit.

 

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I went through the 2016 ideas and calculated the hit rate and I must say it is pretty good. So out of 61 ideas. 45 did well and 16 did not. There were quite a few that were multi-baggers. The users that stood out were Picasso and Wilson-TPC. They dropped a couple of ideas that were multi-baggers. So congrats to all who had great ideas this year. Hope 2017 works out for you guys.

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Of the stocks I own, I think PDEX has the highest expected value in 2017. They're currently doing ~$5.4M per quarter and that's going to ramp to over $7M in 3Q17. It won't be as big this time, but last time the company went through a major step up in revenue (2Q16) the stock went on a tear. They also have several potential projects they're working on that will be announced in 2017. Any project win will add a few million revenue per year.

 

In the "special situations with no downside" category, I like the NYRT liquidation a lot.

 

Sadly, CTO has essentially become a special situation at this point. I think Winters is favored to win the ensuing proxy battle so that would be another sale/liquidation.

 

And finally, in the "high quality companies with no catalysts that I'm happy to own for years" category, IBKR and WFCF.

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STRI and 8148.JP

I have that nagging feeling that cash will outperform ~95% of all mid or largecap stocks in 2017.

 

Are you talking about STR Holdings?  It's delisted right?  Curious why you think they'll come back from the dead.

 

Yes, its delisted. Its just the cheapest stock in my portfolio (price/intrinsic value) and i think its time that mean reversion kicks in. Maybe the closing of the malaysian factory is finally visible in the income statement or they get a big cheque from the insurance because of the fire in their factory in china or they simply fix the money leakage somehow. At 15% of NCAV there is a lot of negativity priced into the stock already, even if there is just a 30% chance of going back to NCAV its a very good bet. But i wouldn`t bet the farm on it.

 

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CNRD. 

 

Every other energy/industrial-related stock has done very well in the Trump Rally.  CNRD is actually down.  A good buying opportunity given where oil is today, and anticipated infrastructure spending.

I agree on CNRD and purchased more yesterday.

I also was bought more MFCB - though I am still underwater on both names.

 

I don't know if those are my "best" ideas of 2017 though...I do plan on holding both for the long run.

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Any further insight into the rest of the management team, especially CFO?

 

Energold Drilling.  A vertically integrated driller with activity in oil, mineral exploration, and telecom/water.

 

Fred Davidson is an owner-operator who has been through many cycles. The mineral cycle is starting to turn and oil sands drilling is picking up again. Should be a good year of revenue and margin expansion.  It has been a rough 3 years but they have preserved the balance sheet and stand to benefit.

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I was just looking at last year's thread.  I only looked at the first page and only looked at long stock ideas.  I did not look at dividends or spinoffs, just price performance.  Against the s&p (again just looking at price performance), the group underperformed by a little under a point, worse if you include those who responded "cash".  The majority of the return came from a small sliver of the sample, mainly oil stocks.

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I was just looking at last year's thread.  I only looked at the first page and only looked at long stock ideas.  I did not look at dividends or spinoffs, just price performance.  Against the s&p (again just looking at price performance), the group underperformed by a little under a point, worse if you include those who responded "cash".  The majority of the return came from a small sliver of the sample, mainly oil stocks.

 

Yeah, but if you look at 2016 results, everyone's beating SP500. Conclusions?

 

- People don't post their best ideas?

- People invest in ideas that were not best (but worked out like best)

- People short term trade

- It's easier to click a poll than to post an idea (guilty here too).

 

8)

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My best idea right now (as of Dec 30, 2016) is US cash. I think it is highly likely we get a significant correction in the stock market at some point in Q1 (similar to last year). Should this happen I will likely be buying lots of stocks.

 

Looking at this thread a year later it may look like cash was a terrible idea.

 

Similar to what we have seen over the past 8 weeks I think what Trump does will heavily influence the stock market. The difference is what he does after he is sworn in in January will matter and the stakes will be much, much higher. Markets hate uncertainly and I think Trump is so all over the board that he is going to create a lot of volatility. Having some US cash on hand is my answer.

 

And I say US$ cash because I think the CAN$ is in trouble (I am Canadian so currency matters). The Softwood Lumber deal has ended and duties of 25-40% will likely be put in place on Canadian softwood lumber. Trump wants to renegotiate NAFTA (this is a priority) which will not be good for Canada. Housing in Canada is a bubble looking for a reason to pop. My guess is the Can$ takes it on the chin in Q1.

 

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Yeah, but if you look at 2016 results, everyone's beating SP500. Conclusions?

 

- People don't post their best ideas?

- People invest in ideas that were not best (but worked out like best)

- People short term trade

- It's easier to click a poll than to post an idea (guilty here too).

 

 

There's a timing mismatch.  The posts from the 2016 thread are nearly all from the two-week period before and after New Years.  So, it's really a thread about the best ideas at that time.  The 2016 results thread, however, reflects investment decisions made throughout the year, rather than a portfolio fixed as of mid-January 2016. 

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My best idea right now (as of Dec 30, 2016) is US cash. I think it is highly likely we get a significant correction in the stock market at some point in Q1 (similar to last year). Should this happen I will likely be buying lots of stocks.

 

Looking at this thread a year later it may look like cash was a terrible idea.

 

Similar to what we have seen over the past 8 weeks I think what Trump does will heavily influence the stock market. The difference is what he does after he is sworn in in January will matter and the stakes will be much, much higher. Markets hate uncertainly and I think Trump is so all over the board that he is going to create a lot of volatility. Having some US cash on hand is my answer.

 

And I say US$ cash because I think the CAN$ is in trouble (I am Canadian so currency matters). The Softwood Lumber deal has ended and duties of 25-40% will likely be put in place on Canadian softwood lumber. Trump wants to renegotiate NAFTA (this is a priority) which will not be good for Canada. Housing in Canada is a bubble looking for a reason to pop. My guess is the Can$ takes it on the chin in Q1.

 

Disagree on CAD. Oil and gas exports were down over 40B in 2015, and total lumber exports were 25B in 2015. The recovery in oil and gas prices should outweigh weakness in lumber pricing to the CAD.

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