Elon Musk...human? - Political

[Spekulatius]

57 minutes ago, DooDiligence said:

 

I watched a bit of CNA recently and saw a documentary that covered anti-corruption efforts in Singapore over the decades. Pretty draconian at times. Let's do it and let's start with everybody in DC left and right, now.

 

https://www.cpib.gov.sg/about-corruption/legislation-and-enforcement/prevention-of-corruption-act/

 

 

It’s going dramatically the other way:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/02/pausing-foreign-corrupt-practices-act-enforcement-to-further-american-economic-and-national-security/

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/supreme-court-maintains-pause-trump-bid-immediately-fire-watchdog-agen-rcna192643
 

[Hektor]

10 minutes ago, Saluki said:

Yes, for instance if your client runs out of money during a criminal trial, your ethical duty is to still represent him and pay for things like expert witnesses, if needed. It would be an interesting conversation if an MBA was involved. 

 

And the ban on fee sharing is pretty common in other industries, to prevent shady practices. For example FINRA Rule 2040 or NFA Rule 1101 prohibit fee sharing with unregistered people.

Thank you.

[james22]

7 hours ago, Saluki said:

I don't have a person in mind, but I have a system in mind.

 

+1

 

I'm reminded of Michael Lewis' description of Germany's civil servants:

 

He is a type familiar in Germany but absolutely freakish in Greece—or for that matter the United States: a keenly intelligent, highly ambitious civil servant who has no other desire but to serve his country. His sparkling curriculum vitae is missing a line that would be found on the résumés of men in his position most anywhere else in the world—the line where he leaves government service for Goldman Sachs to cash out. When I asked another prominent German civil servant why he hadn’t taken time out of public service to make his fortune working for some bank, the way every American civil servant who is anywhere near finance seems to want to do, his expression changed to alarm. “But I could never do this,” he said. “It would be illoyal!”

 

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2011/09/europe-201109#gotopage1

 

Those better men didn't protect them from the GFC.

 

Instead:

 

 

I do not believe that the solution to our problem is simply to elect the right people. The important thing is to establish a political climate of opinion which will make it politically profitable for the wrong people to do the right thing. Unless it is politically profitable for the wrong people to do the right thing, the right people will not do the right thing either, or it they try, they will shortly be out of office.

 

― Milton Friedman

 

Change the assumption that nothing can be done about government waste and fraud and politicians will do something about it.

[Stuart D]

I’m just happy the conversation is around whether they’ve cut $60m, $6b or $60b. I much prefer this conversation vs the usual: “we spent more money on this project than any government has ever spent before.”

[cubsfan]

6 minutes ago, Stuart D said:

I’m just happy the conversation is around whether they’ve cut $60m, $6b or $60b. I much prefer this conversation vs the usual: “we spent more money on this project than any government has ever spent before.”

 

Yup, all the man is trying to do is answer one question:

"What the hell happened to the money?"

[lnofeisone]

11 hours ago, Stuart D said:

I’m just happy the conversation is around whether they’ve cut $60m, $6b or $60b. I much prefer this conversation vs the usual: “we spent more money on this project than any government has ever spent before.”

Lets reframe this a little. The rhetoric you get is how they want to save 60m, 6b, 60b. So far they've wasted way more than 6m (i think it is closer to 60m) sending the dumb give me 5 points email. The actual savings have yet to be demonstrated. Oh and the courts ruling that the govt now might need to bring all the people they fired and most likely with back pay. All while the government is losing qualified people, some of whom will find employment in the private industry, domestic or foreign. Some leadership. 

Edited February 28 by lnofeisone
grammar

[thepupil]

I’ve avoided commenting but I’ll just say that I think what’s happening and the pace at which it is happening appears counterproductive and chaotic and without regards to any kind of logic.

 

i harbored no antipathy to the civil service and most government workers I know (in my DC burb bubble) are highly educated hard working people who work for the feds because they want to a) serve the country b) not work nights/weekends so they can raise families and c) because they often have family money and can afford to make the low salaries of federal workers. Obviously that’s a type specific to my neighborhood.

 

my other exposure to this is my wife is in the medical field and trained at federal government hospital where they are perpetually understaffed in her field. She works in private practice. 2 of her former colleagues are looking to join her which will gut the VA hospital’s ability to perform care…why work for the feds under this admin? 

that’s just anecdata. For actual data regarding the cost of the civil service,where the growth and bloat is I would point to this paper from Brookings

The federal government employees has been flat for decades while the economy and population grew significantly. Most of the growth in spending is with contractors, 60% of which are defense related.

 

gutting the national park service or (pick your agency) to save dollars seems wholly ineffective. 
 

Back to anecdata and biased opinions.
as a trump hating conservatively inclined person, I think this will swing the country HARD to the left.
 

 

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/is-government-too-big-reflections-on-the-size-and-composition-of-todays-federal-government/

Edited February 28 by thepupil

[dealraker]

Wife: "Hubby!!!   We got our Beach trip paid for.  I love Donnie and Elon so much!"

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/27/trump-musk-promote-idea-of-5000-doge-dividend-checks.html

 

Husband: "Sweetie, deficits going up; taxes too; and a recession is coming where I'm gunna  lose my damn job."

 

First fascinate the fools, then muzzle the intelligent.

Edited Friday at 02:25 PM by dealraker

[Hektor]

There is probably some method to what seems to be madness

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/28/us/politics/musk-federal-bureaucracy-takeover.html

 

Excerpt from the news article

 

How Elon Musk Executed His Takeover of the Federal Bureaucracy

The operation was driven with a frenetic focus by the billionaire, who channeled his resentment of regulatory oversight into a drastic overhaul of government agencies.

 

On the last Friday of September 2023, Elon Musk dropped in about an hour late to a dinner party at the Silicon Valley mansion of the technology investor Chamath Palihapitiya.

 

Mr. Musk’s visit was meant to be discreet. Still skittish about getting involved publicly in politics, he told the guests he had to be careful about supporting anyone in the Republican nomination fight. And yet here he was at a $50,000-a-head dinner in honor of the presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, who was running as an entrepreneur who would shake up the status quo.

 

As the night wore on, Mr. Musk held forth on a variety of topics: the U.S.-Mexico border; the war in Ukraine; government regulations hindering SpaceX; and Mr. Ramaswamy’s highest priority, the dismantling of the federal bureaucracy.

 

Mr. Musk made clear that he saw the gutting of that bureaucracy as primarily a technology challenge. He told the party of around 20 that when he overhauled Twitter, the key was gaining access to the company’s servers.

 

Wouldn’t it be great, Mr. Musk offered, if he could have access to the computers of the federal government?

Just give him the passwords and he would make the government fit and trim.

 

What started as musings at a dinner party evolved into a radical takeover of the federal bureaucracy. Mr. Musk’s strategy has been twofold. His team grabbed control of the government’s human resources agency, the Office of Personnel Management, commandeering email systems to pressure civil servants to quit so he could cull the work force. And it burrowed into computer systems across the bureaucracy, tracing how money was flowing so the administration could choke it off.

 

Mr. Musk’s transformation of DOGE from a casual notion into a powerful weapon is something possible only in the Trump era. It involves wild experimentation and an embrace of severe cost-cutting that Mr. Musk previously used to upend Twitter — as well as an appetite for political risk and impulsive decision-making.

 

Mr. Musk’s stealth approach stunned both Democrats and civil servants. Failing to imagine an incursion from inside the bureaucracy, they were caught essentially defenseless.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[John Hjorth]

2 hours ago, dealraker said:

Wife: "Hubby!!!   We got our Beach trip paid for.  I love Donnie and Elon so much!

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/27/trump-musk-promote-idea-of-5000-doge-dividend-checks.html

 

Husband: "Sweetie, deficits going up; taxes too; and a recession is coming where I'm gunna  lose my damn job."

 

First fascinate the fools, then muzzle the intelligent.

 

Thought-provoking, Charlie [ @dealraker ],

 

Reminds one of the madness with helicopter & fiat money in both USA and Europe during the pandemic.

Edited Friday at 02:42 PM by John Hjorth
Fixed spelling

[cubsfan]

31 minutes ago, Hektor said:

There is probably some method to what seems to be madness

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/28/us/politics/musk-federal-bureaucracy-takeover.html

 

Excerpt from the news article

 

How Elon Musk Executed His Takeover of the Federal Bureaucracy

The operation was driven with a frenetic focus by the billionaire, who channeled his resentment of regulatory oversight into a drastic overhaul of government agencies.

 

On the last Friday of September 2023, Elon Musk dropped in about an hour late to a dinner party at the Silicon Valley mansion of the technology investor Chamath Palihapitiya.

 

Mr. Musk’s visit was meant to be discreet. Still skittish about getting involved publicly in politics, he told the guests he had to be careful about supporting anyone in the Republican nomination fight. And yet here he was at a $50,000-a-head dinner in honor of the presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, who was running as an entrepreneur who would shake up the status quo.

 

As the night wore on, Mr. Musk held forth on a variety of topics: the U.S.-Mexico border; the war in Ukraine; government regulations hindering SpaceX; and Mr. Ramaswamy’s highest priority, the dismantling of the federal bureaucracy.

 

Mr. Musk made clear that he saw the gutting of that bureaucracy as primarily a technology challenge. He told the party of around 20 that when he overhauled Twitter, the key was gaining access to the company’s servers.

 

Wouldn’t it be great, Mr. Musk offered, if he could have access to the computers of the federal government?

Just give him the passwords and he would make the government fit and trim.

 

What started as musings at a dinner party evolved into a radical takeover of the federal bureaucracy. Mr. Musk’s strategy has been twofold. His team grabbed control of the government’s human resources agency, the Office of Personnel Management, commandeering email systems to pressure civil servants to quit so he could cull the work force. And it burrowed into computer systems across the bureaucracy, tracing how money was flowing so the administration could choke it off.

 

Mr. Musk’s transformation of DOGE from a casual notion into a powerful weapon is something possible only in the Trump era. It involves wild experimentation and an embrace of severe cost-cutting that Mr. Musk previously used to upend Twitter — as well as an appetite for political risk and impulsive decision-making.

 

Mr. Musk’s stealth approach stunned both Democrats and civil servants. Failing to imagine an incursion from inside the bureaucracy, they were caught essentially defenseless.

 

Nice article. Thanks @Hektor - since I can't get beyond paywall.

 

Pulling DOGE off will certainly be one of the most difficult tasks of any US President.

 

It's much, much easier to tax & spend, tax & spend - throw money around like it's nothing and leave

the disaster for the next administration.

 

I'm not sure when the Federal Government willingly attempted such a task.

Everyone knows it has to happen.

 

It's great to see it happen.

 

 

[james22]

1 hour ago, cubsfan said:

Nice article. Thanks @Hektor - since I can't get beyond paywall.

 

https://archive.ph/ggj86

[james22]

 

 

[lnofeisone]

10 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

 

Is he going to fess up to these errors?

 

"The savings, deleted with no explanation from DOGE or the White House, include: a $232 million cut to the Social Security Administration that actually amounted to only $560,000; an $8 billion cut at Immigration and Customs Enforcement that was actually only $8 million; and three $655 million cuts at the U.S. Agency for International Development that ended up being a measly $18 million. These mistakes all seem to be completely avoidable human errors."

https://www.yahoo.com/news/doge-secretly-changes-website-being-203001406.html

 

 

Also, what a terrible way to make decisions. In my grad school days, one of my advisors had an experiment that pertained to nuclear sensors. The length of the experiment was roughly 10 years and needed daily monitoring and adjustments. Imagine if you "accidently" shut this down and bring the person back 3 days later. Your experiment is wrecked and what will you be doing? Paying for another 10 years of experimental work? He is lucky that nothing bad has happened yet. 

[Ulti]

14 minutes ago, lnofeisone said:

is lucky that nothing bad has happened yet. 

That you know of… anecdotal….  .. on a small scale…Just talked to my accountant… was involved in some IRS audits…. Auditor got fired and all is up in the air… apparently a common theme thruout the IRS

[lnofeisone]

Just now, Ulti said:

That you know of… anecdotal….  .. on a small scale…Just talked to my accountant… was involved in some IRS audits…. Auditor got fired and all is up in the air… apparently a common theme thruout the IRS

Yeah, IRS fired a bunch of their Large Business and International (LB&I) and Small Business (SBSE) Revenue Agents that started in October. This is going to tie up a lot of cases. In some instances taxpayers are due refund which screws with everyone.

 

1) The taxpayers generally pre-pay potential tax liabilities while arguing with IRS. This is done to avoid penalties and interest if the IRS finds them in the wrong. So now taxpayers don't have funds to spend and may need to wait even longer. 

2) IRS pays you interest if they hold on to your refund. They can even issue you a 1099-INT. I got one. It is definitely neat (and also reported as income). That interest is going to go straight into the budget deficit. 

 

But, you know, savings according to DOGE. 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

5 hours ago, thepupil said:

I’ve avoided commenting but I’ll just say that I think what’s happening and the pace at which it is happening appears counterproductive and chaotic and without regards to any kind of logic.

 

 

The revisions in Atlanta Fed GDPNOw estimates agree with you. 

 

We seem to be headed for a contraction fairly quickly. About to line up another Republican led recession and Trump will be 2 for 2 in "being good for business" while wrecking the economy.

Edited Friday at 05:09 PM by TwoCitiesCapital

[Ulti]

23 hours ago, cubsfan said:

^^^ Term limits and restrictions on post-private sector jobs would be awesome.

You forgot to address nepotism 

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/education/article300615279.html

I luv it that the ripoff company hired the 

Son of the legislature cosponsor of the bill

 

[james22]

41 minutes ago, lnofeisone said:

Is he going to fess up to these errors?

 

Fess up? He's stipulating "We will make mistakes."

 

What more do you want?

 

41 minutes ago, lnofeisone said:

Also, what a terrible way to make decisions.

 

As opposed to?

 

Did Clinton manage to Reinvent Government?

 

 

Bureaucracies perpetuate themselves (goal displacement).

 

You can't immanentize the eschaton and you can't make an omelet without breaking eggs.

 

[cubsfan]

Don't expect a lot of tears to be shed for a vicious and out of control Federal government that got replaced.

 

When you destroy lots of high paying pipeline, oil & Gas, mining and manufacturing jobs - and tell those impacted "learn how to code" - you won't get much sympathy from your citizens.

When you send hundred of armed law-enforcement agents to arrest senior citizens at gunpoint with swat teams to rifle through underwear drawers - you're getting what you deserve.

 

Unlease the IRS & NSA & FBI & DOJ on political opponents?   Shoe is on the other foot for once.

 

Agencies like USAID funnelling money to censor political opponents and solely fund the favorable press?  Close it down.

 

Unfortunately, a body deeply infected with cancer requires chemotherapy that is pleasant for no one. 

 

But the Federal government earned it.

Edited Friday at 05:35 PM by cubsfan

[Ulti]

8 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Unfortunately, a body deeply infected with cancer requires chemotherapy that is pleasant for no one. 

 

But the Federal government earned it.

Again nobody is disagreeing with you … last time I checked with my doc buddies

all this type of treatment is rationally and efficiently planned out prior to starting…and the patient is fully informed and prepared 

Simething the current administration should have done to begin with.

[cubsfan]

4 minutes ago, Ulti said:

Again nobody is disagreeing with you … last time I checked with my doc buddies

all this type of treatment is rationally and efficiently planned out prior to starting…and the patient is fully informed and prepared 

Simething the current administration should have done to begin with.

 

I seriously doubt that would ever work. The entrenched resistance in the ranks is much too deep.

The same assholes that fought every step of the way in the President's first term.

 

Radical surgery breaks some glass, but works time & again.

 

So we will just beg to differ.

[flesh]

I’m with dalio. Call me a trumper, I see the opposite of the will to do this on the other side and this is 80% of why I voted for trump this time. (I voted Hillary) All I want is what dalio wants. I see zero evidence the left will do it. I see the first chance since the mid 90s to get something done. The rest is noise to me. I have zero faith in the left to do it in any way. I see no evidence it can actually be accomplished in this climate without pissing everyone off. 
 

The real selling point is by reducing the deficit rates can come down and reduce interest costs by 100s of billions.. multiplier effects. If you haven’t read dalio in full on the subject recently it’s very informative. 
 

“There are three main types of levers that can be pulled to control the deficit: tax increases, spending cuts, and lower interest rates. To achieve the goal of stabilizing debt relative to income, it would take about a 11% increase in taxes, about a 12% cut in spending, or about a 3% cut in interest rates, all else being equal, if just one lever were used alone. Of course, any one of these numbers alone is way too large, so managing the adjustment will require a good combination of two or three of them.”

 

https://time.com/7221862/ray-dalio-cut-the-budget-deficit/

[lnofeisone]

1 hour ago, james22 said:

 

Fess up? He's stipulating "We will make mistakes."

 

What more do you want?

I want a planned (predictable), methodical approach that demonstrates results. Not gloating with numbers that turn out to be off by 99.9%. Put another way, he has overestimated his cuts by a factor of 1,000. Pretend you have an investment and a CEO did this. Would you be long? This isn't something he is forced to do. This is a basic contract and math mistake that a rookie contracting officer could help with. Very clear that this guy is clueless about what he is reporting on the DOGE website. Very clear that he doesn't know what he is doing.

 

I also want these "savings" to go to deficit and debt reduction. Not some idiotic $5k check to everyone. Is that too much to ask for?

 

Clinton cut 400k Gov't employees. I can't wait for you to find something on tweeter about "bump and retreat" for federal employees. I'll let you do the math of how that will increase gov't cost. 

 

[lnofeisone]

1 hour ago, cubsfan said:

Unfortunately, a body deeply infected with cancer requires chemotherapy that is pleasant for no one. 

What a terrible analogy. What's happening now is more like someone going outside, grabbing 20 random people, and subjecting them to chemotherapy. Do they all need chemo? No. But as some on the board would say - we can fess up to errors and unplug the chemo.

 

Is weaponizing Gov't agencies OK by you? Don't you think Dems will ever win WH/Congress and eventually SCOTUS? Be careful what you wish for.