gfp Posted February 27 Posted February 27 Here is a bloomberg "gift link" that will work for the first few folks I believe https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-27/fairfax-said-to-lead-race-for-8-billion-india-bank-stake-sale?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTc3MjE5NjY0OCwiZXhwIjoxNzcyODAxNDQ4LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJUQjJDR0hLSVVQWDQwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiJDQzBDODMzNzNFQjM0MDk5QkQ3QTM2RkVBMTJDMTRFRCJ9.dlO_srN5-ytZA8ZHp-54_A4MNQMBOkO3HNkgtev1Om8
Hoodlum Posted February 27 Posted February 27 5 minutes ago, gfp said: Here is a bloomberg "gift link" that will work for the first few folks I believe https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-27/fairfax-said-to-lead-race-for-8-billion-india-bank-stake-sale?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTc3MjE5NjY0OCwiZXhwIjoxNzcyODAxNDQ4LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJUQjJDR0hLSVVQWDQwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiJDQzBDODMzNzNFQjM0MDk5QkQ3QTM2RkVBMTJDMTRFRCJ9.dlO_srN5-ytZA8ZHp-54_A4MNQMBOkO3HNkgtev1Om8 Here are the details of what was said. The rest of the article is just rehashing previous articles and comments. Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. is the frontrunner to buy a majority stake in IDBI Bank Ltd., according to people familiar with the matter, in what could be the biggest foreign investment in India’s banking sector. Shares rose. Fairfax, founded by Indian-born Canadian billionaire Prem Watsa, is in advanced talks with the government and is considered ahead of rival bidders, the people said, asking not to be identified because the process is private. The 61% stake that the government and a state-run insurer hold in the private lender is worth about $8 billion at the current market price. Negotiations are ongoing and there’s no certainty a deal will be completed, the people added. Spokespeople for India’s finance ministry and Toronto-based Fairfax didn’t respond to requests for comment. IDBI Bank declined to comment. Shares of the lender erased their losses and rose as much as 2% in Mumbai, hitting their highest level since Feb. 18.
Parsad Posted February 27 Posted February 27 Question about the bid for IDBI...are they doing this through Fairfax or Fairfax India? Doesn't indicate in the various articles out there. It's about an $8B bid, so I'm just wondering how they are going to finance this through FIH. Cheers!
MMM20 Posted February 27 Posted February 27 1 hour ago, Parsad said: Question about the bid for IDBI...are they doing this through Fairfax or Fairfax India? Doesn't indicate in the various articles out there. It's about an $8B bid, so I'm just wondering how they are going to finance this through FIH. Cheers! I’ve heard you’ve got some giant pension funds up there who write some huge checks.
hardcorevalue Posted February 28 Posted February 28 Do we think this gets structure as straight equity with partners or GP/LP structure with FIH receiving a fee?
TwoCitiesCapital Posted February 28 Posted February 28 3 hours ago, hardcorevalue said: Do we think this gets structure as straight equity with partners or GP/LP structure with FIH receiving a fee? I'd guess just straight equity since it's publicly traded? GP/LP might make sense for the private assets like the airport, but for something that's publicly traded that FIH is just buying a large stake in - does it make sense others would participate for a few when they can just buy it on the open market?
SafetyinNumbers Posted February 28 Posted February 28 (edited) 15 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said: I'd guess just straight equity since it's publicly traded? GP/LP might make sense for the private assets like the airport, but for something that's publicly traded that FIH is just buying a large stake in - does it make sense others would participate for a few when they can just buy it on the open market? I asked the question at the 2024 AGM (although they butchered my name in the transcript ). Prem seemed to tell us exactly what is going to happen but it remains to be confirmed. Only 5% of the IDBI float is listed so it’s impossible to get a size position. I think the deal will be done at a discount because the minority will be offered the same deal and the price has to be low enough that they don’t tender. I’m not sure if it’s possible but if was them I would simultaneously have IDBI offer to buy CSB for stock. That immediately increases IDBI float. The deal would have to be done at a premium to convince the CSB minority to sell. My guess is it won’t be hard sell given CSB management likely has a plan to increase IDBI ROE that is been refining for the past 3 years and it won’t be hard to find investors that can see the upside. If this comes to fruition, the benefits to FIH book and intrinsic value could be dramatic if we consider the premium on CSB and the NPV of the fee stream for the GP. It also flips a key narrative for not owning FIH, the fee structure. Edited February 28 by SafetyinNumbers Added transcript
Saluki Posted March 7 Posted March 7 On 2/28/2026 at 12:39 AM, SafetyinNumbers said: I asked the question at the 2024 AGM (although they butchered my name in the transcript ). Prem seemed to tell us exactly what is going to happen but it remains to be confirmed. Only 5% of the IDBI float is listed so it’s impossible to get a size position. I think the deal will be done at a discount because the minority will be offered the same deal and the price has to be low enough that they don’t tender. I’m not sure if it’s possible but if was them I would simultaneously have IDBI offer to buy CSB for stock. That immediately increases IDBI float. The deal would have to be done at a premium to convince the CSB minority to sell. My guess is it won’t be hard sell given CSB management likely has a plan to increase IDBI ROE that is been refining for the past 3 years and it won’t be hard to find investors that can see the upside. If this comes to fruition, the benefits to FIH book and intrinsic value could be dramatic if we consider the premium on CSB and the NPV of the fee stream for the GP. It also flips a key narrative for not owning FIH, the fee structure. This is an interesting idea. I guess you could avoid the problem of issuing shares at a discount by letting new LPs come in through a different class of shares and issue them a different incentive fee (or the same) with a high water mark based on the date they invested. I think you could also structure it to let them invest in some trophy assets, like airport, instead of the whole fund, so they get exposure to it, and you can get good marks for the premium assets instead of some mark for the entire fund. I don't think it worked out well for Boston Omaha, but I think a lot of their joint ventures were not great businesses.
Crip1 Posted March 7 Posted March 7 6 hours ago, UK said: Sorry if this already was posted I've seen a few presentations by Ben and always found him to be thoughtful and his message to be compelling. As he's in line to take over the Chairmanship of FFH when appropriate, the company seems like it's in good hands. However, as I watched this, there were a couple things that came to mind that are concerning. Apologies if someone else pointed this out before. 1) There is a fine line between presenting compelling information and being sold, and he gets closer to the line of selling. This is based on a few things, one of which is not hearing him invert, always invert, as Charlie recommended countless times. A discussion of "What can go wrong here" would be appreciated. A presentation of "This is what we do, and this is why we do it" is great, but then saying "I hope you invest with us" takes it to a slightly different place. 2) Ben is the Chairman of FFI, a company which has seen Book Value CAGR of less than 8%/Year where Marval has had a CAGR of well over 25%. I thoroughly understand that we're talking apples and oranges in terms of structure and, based on BIAL alone the current Book Value is understanded, perhaps dramatically, but the difference is striking to say the least. Clearly he's been able to identify solid investments in India, so why is FFI not identifying the same investments or realizing similar results? Not suggesting anything nefarious, it just does not make sense to me. -Crip
SafetyinNumbers Posted March 8 Posted March 8 (edited) 13 hours ago, Crip1 said: Clearly he's been able to identify solid investments in India, so why is FFI not identifying the same investments or realizing similar results? Not suggesting anything nefarious, it just does not make sense to me. FIH has a different strategy than Marval but has had strong returns in public investments and in private/public monetized investments. I think the Track Record suggests that its private investments are either not performing well or are conservatively marked. Based on what we know about Fairfax’s culture the latter makes more sense. We also have other confirmation given we know BIAL might be marked at less than half its fair value. We can also see the discount rates and other assumptions in their DCFs to value the other investments. They are conservative by most standards. This suggests the whole private book might be undervalued. That’s the bet in a nutshell on FIH. If BVPS was $40/sh which is where liquidation value might be, it would be closer to a 14% CAGR from $9.50 instead of 7.9% to $22.94. A big change recently that will help BVPS momentum is the BIAL model price is now above the price paid to Siemens and has been for the past two quarters. We should continue to see that accrete which should help the stock perform and make it easier to own waiting for other catalysts like the BIAL IPO and IDBI. Edited March 8 by SafetyinNumbers
gfp Posted March 8 Posted March 8 13 hours ago, Crip1 said: 2) Ben is the Chairman of FFI, a company which has seen Book Value CAGR of less than 8%/Year where Marval has had a CAGR of well over 25%. I thoroughly understand that we're talking apples and oranges in terms of structure and, based on BIAL alone the current Book Value is understanded, perhaps dramatically, but the difference is striking to say the least. Clearly he's been able to identify solid investments in India, so why is FFI not identifying the same investments or realizing similar results? Not suggesting anything nefarious, it just does not make sense to me. Seems like it's a little early to criticize this discrepancy? Ben started his track record at Marval in 2017 and took over the Chairman role at Fairfax India in mid-2024. Has Fairfax India even made a new public market investment since July 2024? Wouldn't the Chairman of the board role be pretty different than sole Portfolio Manager? You start at Fairfax India in July 2024, the Indian stock market peaks in September 2024 and then starts an 18 month correction Fairfax India is a US Dollar based investor so Indian stocks in general would have produced an 11% -ish loss on average since Ben was made chairman of FIH.
SafetyinNumbers Posted March 8 Posted March 8 2 minutes ago, gfp said: Seems like it's a little early to criticize this discrepancy? Ben started his track record at Marval in 2017 and took over the Chairman role at Fairfax India in mid-2024. Has Fairfax India even made a new public market investment since July 2024? Wouldn't the Chairman of the board role be pretty different than sole Portfolio Manager? You start at Fairfax India in July 2024, the Indian stock market peaks in September 2024 and then starts an 18 month correction Fairfax India is a US Dollar based investor so Indian stocks in general would have produced an 11% -ish loss on average since Ben was made chairman of FIH. FIH is trying to achieve absolute returns. If successful, they will beat the market over the long term. This is another situation where investors think the market is efficient when it’s clearly not.
Hoodlum Posted March 8 Posted March 8 (edited) Does anyone know if there is any accuracy to this. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/ipos/fpos/fairfax-omers-to-extend-ipo-timeline-of-bangalore-airport-holding-company/articleshow/129253901.cms?from=mdr Fairfax Financial and OMERS have extended by 12 months the timeline for the planned IPO of Anchorage Infrastructure, the holding company owning a stake in Bengaluru’s Kempegowda International Airport. The revised deadline is September 2026, giving investors more time to secure approvals and create a monetisation route for OMERS’ investment. Edited March 8 by Hoodlum
sholland Posted March 8 Posted March 8 2 hours ago, Hoodlum said: Does anyone know if there is any accuracy to this. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/ipos/fpos/fairfax-omers-to-extend-ipo-timeline-of-bangalore-airport-holding-company/articleshow/129253901.cms?from=mdr Fairfax Financial and OMERS have extended by 12 months the timeline for the planned IPO of Anchorage Infrastructure, the holding company owning a stake in Bengaluru’s Kempegowda International Airport. The revised deadline is September 2026, giving investors more time to secure approvals and create a monetisation route for OMERS’ investment. Yes, it’s in the annual letter
Parsad Posted March 8 Posted March 8 3 hours ago, gfp said: Seems like it's a little early to criticize this discrepancy? Ben started his track record at Marval in 2017 and took over the Chairman role at Fairfax India in mid-2024. Has Fairfax India even made a new public market investment since July 2024? Wouldn't the Chairman of the board role be pretty different than sole Portfolio Manager? You start at Fairfax India in July 2024, the Indian stock market peaks in September 2024 and then starts an 18 month correction Fairfax India is a US Dollar based investor so Indian stocks in general would have produced an 11% -ish loss on average since Ben was made chairman of FIH. +1! Yes, way too early and also remember Fairfax's investment team works as a committee to tear ideas apart. While Ben will be overseeing one major area, other team members will be overseeing other core areas of investments. Combine that with the insurance engines (overseen by others) and fully-owned, non insurance businesses, you have a variety of people leading the company's growth engines. Again, the de-centralized nature of the business allows people to succeed and to eff up...but corrections and decisions can be made quickly. Maintaining the culture is paramount...and that's where any "perceived" deficiencies in the children's investment abilities, would be made up in spades by Ben and Christine's leadership abilities to remember what their father taught them about Fairfax and responsibility to its shareholders! Cheers!
Crip1 Posted March 8 Posted March 8 3 hours ago, gfp said: Seems like it's a little early to criticize this discrepancy? Ben started his track record at Marval in 2017 and took over the Chairman role at Fairfax India in mid-2024. Has Fairfax India even made a new public market investment since July 2024? Wouldn't the Chairman of the board role be pretty different than sole Portfolio Manager? You start at Fairfax India in July 2024, the Indian stock market peaks in September 2024 and then starts an 18 month correction Fairfax India is a US Dollar based investor so Indian stocks in general would have produced an 11% -ish loss on average since Ben was made chairman of FIH. That's a fair point, thank you for making it. I still think it's fair to question this. Example, Marval researches and becomes interested in buying XYZ company. Does Ben bring it to FFI? Who buys it first? It allows for a David Sokol/Lubrizol scenario. I am not suggesting any malfeasance has occurred. Just noting that it does look to be a potentially tricky situation. -Crip
Parsad Posted March 8 Posted March 8 37 minutes ago, Crip1 said: That's a fair point, thank you for making it. I still think it's fair to question this. Example, Marval researches and becomes interested in buying XYZ company. Does Ben bring it to FFI? Who buys it first? It allows for a David Sokol/Lubrizol scenario. I am not suggesting any malfeasance has occurred. Just noting that it does look to be a potentially tricky situation. -Crip Yeah, this is an issue both Berkshire and Fairfax have addressed in the past. They have internal decisions about how these are made...I wouldn't worry too much about it. Fairfax has their own in office trading desk/room that Frances Burke used to run...not sure who oversees it now. I believe they would generally execute their order for all of the subsidiaries and then allocate based on size/percentage. Also, certain stocks belong with certain subsidiaries...for example, you aren't going to buy stocks for American subsidiaries that are in FIH...so the issue never comes up. I would imagine when Ben is fully integrated into Fairfax long-term, Marval will be bought out by Hamblin-Watsa...just like Hamblin-Watsa was brought in-house. Regarding the Lubrizol/Berkshire issue with Sokol, it was over a personal position he had taken. Again, I suspect Fairfax has internal structure on how this is done or not done. They've been pretty good about being proactive on these things over the years. At Berkshire, before the two T's, Buffett would just do everything. Not sure how it works now.
SafetyinNumbers Posted March 8 Posted March 8 50 minutes ago, Crip1 said: That's a fair point, thank you for making it. I still think it's fair to question this. Example, Marval researches and becomes interested in buying XYZ company. Does Ben bring it to FFI? Who buys it first? It allows for a David Sokol/Lubrizol scenario. I am not suggesting any malfeasance has occurred. Just noting that it does look to be a potentially tricky situation. -Crip I agree it should be addressed but once again FIH has positions where they have significant influence and Marval owns small positions in bigger companies.
Hoodlum Posted March 8 Posted March 8 38 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said: I agree it should be addressed but once again FIH has positions where they have significant influence and Marval owns small positions in bigger companies. At the moment they seem to be on different lanes, but that could change over time. BIAL and assuming IDBA would dwarf everything else so trading of stocks would seem quite small.
SafetyinNumbers Posted March 8 Posted March 8 2 hours ago, Hoodlum said: At the moment they seem to be on different lanes, but that could change over time. BIAL and assuming IDBA would dwarf everything else so trading of stocks would seem quite small. IDBI might dwarf everything in terms of related fees but not sure about in size. We likely contribute our CSB stake but not necessarily a ton of cash.
Xerxes Posted March 13 Posted March 13 Copy paste from the political thread : Recent conflict in the Middle East, Iran and UAE would probably mean a re-balancing of long haul flights away from the Ethihad, Qatar and Emirates, and their hubs and toward Bangalore, Istanbul and other hubs. Call it a structural change. Tourism to the Middle East will of course not stop. But there is no reason for that over concentration to not be rebalanced for transiting passengers. It is up for grabs
TwoCitiesCapital Posted March 13 Posted March 13 Well, seems like FIH can refocus all its energies on Anchorage now that the bank is out of the picture....
valueinvesting101 Posted March 13 Posted March 13 I always wondered why they didn't consider buying stake in something like IDFC First Bank. It was being shopped around and it has done other large offering with recent one around 1.1 P/B may be they didn't like the jockey. Interestingly I had asked Mr. Deepak Parekh about his favorite mid-sized bank in India during last AGM for Fairfax India and he had mentioned IDFC First Bank. Now I don't know how that translates into favorite investment or valuation but there are definitely some elements which match with what Fairfax is looking for in their investments.
hardcorevalue Posted March 14 Posted March 14 or just buyback stock in FIH! I don't think FIH works out well as a platform unless they crush it on BIAL. The market price is implying very little value for BIAL so I'd just double down on that rather than planting more seeds. You need the p/b to trade at a a large premium so they can grow faster and issue shares and acquire more. Too much of a good thing can be wonderful!
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