SharperDingaan

Just to stir the pot ...... For the next 2-5 years FFH is in a fluid opportunity window, after which the game is going to largely 'set' for a good decade plus. Today FFH has excess capital, the low multiple, established beach-heads, and relatively small size going for them; but once WEB passes, one has to think that it will be very different. Most would expect the 'Buffet of the North' thing to drive up the multiple; if only because one USD BRK share goes for a lot more than one CAD FFH share. As the 'mantle' will also make it much harder to buy anything at a reasonable price, the beach-heads will also need to already be in place; and FFH will primarily have to extract value via growing their various equity investments, versus seeing them only as trading bits of paper. Nothing new for FFH; but it has its own risks. BRK is great, but it's primarily old businesses operating the old way; whereas in today's world, the operational technology is very different, far more productive, and highly trans-formative. Tech that FFH will have to be involved in, and will benefit mightily from, as it finances the turnover of capital stock in its long-term equity investments. Tech that is going to include crypto; whether it be for settlement, secure record storage, or tamper proof titling (India). A future so bright, I gotta wear shades (Timbuk3 song). The India/BRIC thing is great, but it's a multi-decade thing, and largely a wash. As that great Indian investment that shot the lights out in local terms, looks very different when assessed in USD terms; and 'association' will periodically cost more than it adds. Not a bad thing, but a source of volatility and a cost of doing business. So what? Have to think that for the next 2-5 years, maybe this is the time to buy 5 shares, for every 4 sold .... and if that accumulation can be paid for primarily via house money - so much the better May we all do well! SD

Agree it will continue to exist but the amount in circulation will progressively be reduced. Friends laugh at this as there is still a need for pay for the drugs and black market activity - and little does it better than cash! SD

Fees. Cash is totally anonymous, and CBDC is free to use with near instant settlement; layer 2 ... not so much. SD

Keep in mind that BTC is a single security and already has a market cap in the global top 10-15 names. If one believes that a halving doubles the value of BTC every 4-yr cycle, it will not be that many years before BTC has the largest cap of all (& then some). And if BTC is programmed to double every 4 years ... the un-leveraged 4-year CAGR to beat is 18.97%. The reality is that in every nation, a BTC-ETF is very likely never going to value at anything much different to the most common fiat bill in circulation (assume $20 bill in the US). If Joe Sixpack wants to spend, he would simply hold the $20 as either a bill or as US CBDC. If Joe wants to save he would simply hold the $20 as a US BTC-ETF, immune from inflation. As and when the value of BTC to the value of supported US BTC-ETF issued periodically exceeds $20, there is simply a unit split. Long term we have a similar view to rkbabang, but with perhaps more against bonds. Real estate can be nationalised/seized at any time, whereas bonds can easily be denominated in BTC to facilitate creation of today's Euro-Dollar and Euro-Yuan market equivalents. Also the higher that BTC goes, the safer it gets. BTC at 40T is 1.9M per BTC. Essentially the currency for government to government settlement, that displaces reserve currency. SD

Gotta love the smell of napalm first thing in the morning (Apocalypse Now, 1979); BTC at USD 57,500 and falling. By now, retail around the world has discovered that BTC/BTC-ETF's are no longer marginable, and that margin accounts with BTC are either getting sold out, or the BTC in them severely sold down. Daily capital flow into crypto is now negative, the margin restriction has diverted money-laundering elsewhere, and it has put a hold on the inclusion of BTC in corporate Investment Policy Statements. It is also no longer worth borrowing against BTC to pay the monthly mining bills, and the current crop of Chinese BTC-ETF launches ... have strong incentive to withdraw from the market and 'relaunch' in 6 months. And this is just BTC ..... not crypto in general; have to think that BTC is going a lot lower .... Lot of those who sold into the halving are looking at potential swing trade gains in the five digits; they also aren't going to be in a hurry to buy back in. Interesting times. SD

Very good! SD

Seldom talked about is that this can ALSO drive very predatory behaviour which needs to be controlled. You may believe that XYZ is a very good 2-5 year investment that you should be exposed to (anchor), but if you're swing trading XYZ; it's a very stupid idea to both excessively wait on your repurchase (predatory), and reinvest swing gains in additional XYZ (predatory). You need to piss off the house, and take the swing gains out of the market entirely. Lot of folks have done very well selling out BTC in the run up to the halving. Were they to buy back today, they would be up another un-leveraged 16%+; but were they to simply buy back two-weeks out (after the Chinese BTC-ETF take-up is better known), it could well be 20%+. I.E: Predatory delay of BTC repurchase to force miners to sell BTC collateral early, and to force price down via a lower demand expectation and higher supply .... the market at work But if you put that one month 20% gain into additional BTC, only the house would win. Whereas if you took it off the table entirely, and parked it in treasuries ... it will be available for when the house eventually errs (Nash Game Theory)... and needs to make an offer that cannot be refused; by even the mighty! (GS/WEB preferred share offering). If it never happens, no big deal; ...... but if it does, and you're there; Lenny, ..... you're made for life! Play your own game. SD

The more meat for the pot the merrier! However, ideally not all of them as roadkill ... as there's only so much chilli that one can put with! SD

A worthwhile read, with results that are not unexpected. However, there are actually 3 BTC markets, not 2. On-chain, off-chain (Lightning network, stable coin, BTC-ETF, etc), and derivatives (OTC and non-OTC); the silence around the derivatives market speaking volumes. The markets are also stratified, and facilitate money laundering; (1) Borderless BTC but subject to the 'influence' of the big holders, (2) semi-borderless BTC options/futures (US exchange [CME], borderless (but known) buyers/sellers, (3) less borderless BTC-ETF that is largely confined within the host nation. Money laundering via real estate is visible at scale, but much less so via crypto; all those empty towers in the desert and new cities in Asia being prime examples. Rather than fight it (venereal disease approach), money laundering is simply co-opted to benefit everybody - as volatility to trade against (the largest money launderers in the world are nation states) Less borderless as a US BTC-ETF can be pledged as collateral for a non USD loan. Authorities know who you are, but can lean on the lender at any time to seize the collateral - Russia (JP Morgan) and China (Binance) as more recent examples. We live in interesting times. SD

Quite agree! for the next few years Europe is fine for vacation. But as pointed out, if you want to do the more 'exotic' stuff (Trans Siberian, Orient Express, etc.); get it done, or risk losing the opportunity - which may not come round again during your remaining go-go/slow-go years. I have been waiting for years to finish travelling overland from London to Capetown via the old 'Red Route'; but so long as the Sudan conflict continues - one has to overfly the Sahara crossing, and there is no overland travel to Abu Simbel from the Ethiopian highlands (source of the Nile) via the desert. When we can visit anytime, we take it for granted; and assume the destination will always be there, and/or look the same. We just recognise that the world is changing, and it wouldn't hurt to be a lot more appreciative of our current abilities. SD

The down-side to this is that senior officials have begun talking about a 'pre-war' stage; and war occurs in Europe about every 70+ years (i.e: overdue). 2%+ spending targets have now become priorities (Russia/Trump effect). And seem to be getting met through ramped up new weapons production (shells, drones, rockets, etc.), logistics rotating through existing hot zones for 'practice', and a build-up of mass deployable 'inventory' outside of domestic budget controls (US/Ukraine), etc. Alongside quiet re-militarisation of Germany and Japan. Not a bad thing; but if you want to get that European travel in .... do it sooner rather than later. SD

Miners have incentive to borrow against their stash to pay the bills. Bankers have incentive to lend out the collateral via derivatives. As long as the miner can continue to pay the interest, everyone wins. But some miners are going to get liquidated, their stashes increasing the BTC float and lowering the BTC price. However, the obvious buyers have no incentive to buy, as all they need do is simply wait on puts to get assigned; and short (via CME options/futures) on the way down .... for a few extra bucks. SD

Nah ... I'm just ahead of everyone else The whole currency thing is that if you can pay for something with it, it's a form of cash; we just don't like the form. Could be USD, bricks of cocaine, hi-tech chips/weapons, oil, 'influence', or BTC; whichever is 'best' depends upon the purpose. Materially changing valuation is the norm, not the exception. SD

Doesn't really happen though; think of a cash holding in BTC/BTC-ETF. If you think your cash/BTC is going to be worth more next year (by at least inflation) you would be inclined to HODL .... but in reality, the cash/BTC is going to be swing traded around a core holding; hopefully for gains that will be spent within the next year. But ..... while the gains are free money, they are only going to be 'spent' as long as they are relatively small (low spending bar); the reality is that the larger gains are going to be 'invested' ... in new truck/car, mortgage repayment, house upgrades, more bonds, etc (high spending bar). But what when the cumulative gain to date has become so large, that you have now both paid off everything, and established the family 'pile' for generations to come? ... any further gains are now destructive to both you and your family. The gains get given away ... ideally on something lasting and worth while. It used to be that cash (at best) earned a real return of 0-1%; but in the BTC age ... 50%+ year is not that unusual. Changes the whole perspective. SD

Nobody is indispensable - even Julius Caesar. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Julius_Caesar SD

If there is going to be a lasting peace, there is going to have to be a 2 state solution; as/when there are 2 states, this will be a non-issue. After last night's fiasco, one has to think the current coalition government is done; it has now been 6 months+ since the Oct 09 attack, and the blood-lust has to be pretty much over. SD

The best outcome would be peace breaking out; Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, unrestricted aid flows across Gaza, Gulf state funded field hospitals on the Egyptian side of the Rafah crossing, Houthis give Red Sea shipping a break. Oil prices fall like a brick, partial diversion of Israeli weapons flow to Ukraine, and Israel prepares for a new round of elections. Not in many peoples interests, but the calculus changed last night. Longer term; all that destruction in Gaza has to be rebuilt. Most would expect a change in Gaza's status, gulf state money combined with Gaza labour, and Israel excluded as much as possible. Without the war spending and cheap labour, Israel goes into recession. SD

I routinely point out to both undergrad/grad students, that to get ahead - you must expose yourself to risk; and that most of us will only have two risk-windows per lifetime. We have a variety of tools by which we can mitigate and/or position ourselves to benefit from risk; but it's to us to both act, and recognise opportunity as it is passing. Most people lack the imagination, and the ability to apply; hence the well-known 'you can lead a horse to water, but can't make it drink'. However, while there are infinite possibilities, whatever you choose also needs to be a good match for you. No different to finding your 'significant other'; yet look around you .... at how few seem to be able to do it. SD

The hard reality is that Israel f****d up badly when they struck the Iranian consulate in Damascus; senior officials rolled the dice, and almost pulled the US and UK into Gulf War III. There are a lot of bills to pay for last nights bail-out, and there will be consequences. The only reason we don't have Gulf War III this morning is because Iran also has very smart generals, who managed to launch a face-saving sovereign-on-sovereign strike that was designed to reliably fail. Now it's purely a personal matter between families; the perpetrators will be known, and its old world 'eye-for-an-eye'. One day ... they will be suddenly gone, the matter closed, and we will all be the safer for it. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/4/why-does-israel-keep-launching-attacks-in-syria Lot of very smart people acted last night; we owe them all an enormous favour. SD

There is nothing wrong with dissenting opinion, and it is to be encouraged; but there's also reality. China is a communist country, and for the western investor, property rights are about 'might is right'. You have them only while China needs the West more than the West needs China, after that .... not so much. If you were unsure of that, look no further than both Hong Kong, and Taiwan. Participation also doesn't mean investment in China. China is well known for over-developing mines in 3rd world countries, and using the resultant surplus global over supply to force down the commodities price for decades. When the host nation objects, the mine and rail/port labour is simply replaced with expats and the commodity proceeds processed through the Chinese banking system. Object some more, and you're replaced with civil war. Age-old fair game .... but it's the real meaning of 'belt and road'. However; every former Colonial Power has learnt the hard way, that eventually the natives take back the assets, and the asset strip is a time limited engagement. Changing the face of the colonialist doesn't change the eventual end-game. It eventually catches up. China has made amazing progress over the decades, but it's been very much along the failed 'Asian Tiger' model. Same as Japan; burn the population pyramid to do it, finance it with extraordinary credit expansion, and allow the wealth to build up in highly leveraged real estate. Thing is ... you run out of babies 'cause everyone is working stupid hours, the real estate depends on ongoing ability to repay, and the whole thing tanks when the increasingly limited Chinese labour pool eventually ages out. As with Japan, interest rates plummet/stay there for years, and the whole world exploits the dirt cheap money. Do you really want to be the lender in this, or would you much rather be the borrower? Then add to it the dictators playbook; when things aren't going well at home, distract attention by 'creating an enemy' that everyone can be rallied around .... and in a communist country, there is only one 'leader'. If you're going to take this kind of risk, there are a great many other places with better returns/unit risk in which to do it. Not what many want to hear. SD

Do this in a tax exempt/deferred account (TFSA/RRSP), and the math looks a little different SD

The reality is that BTC-ETF's are not 'investments'; they are trading sardines, and 3-months is a long time. Lot of folks think BTC is 85K 4-months out (+21% from today's 70K ); but obviously it's not a straight line rise. Uncertainty drives FOMO that drives volatility that drives gambling. Should BTC fade back to 65K; that 4-month gain at 85K is now +31% China's BTC-ETF introduction has indeed the potential to move the market, but to move the dial it has to overcome the widely expected post-halving mining drag. There's a reason why Chinese BTC-ETF's are coming to market, after the current halving. Step away for a time, break the feedback loops, and come back with fresh eyes; the bunnies will still be there later SD

Over time each becomes its own very strong stand-alone regional business. Each does a small IPO (10-15% of the entire business) to establish a public market, a current share value, raise its own capital, and create the ability to issue its own stock options etc. The other 85% of the shares remain held by FFH, with dividends flowing up to FFH as already occurs. Puts an easy daily minimum sum of the parts value on FFH, and is standard operating procedure in most corporate finance shops. Nothing magical. SD

There are many different methodologies by which to value a company; no 'one way' is right. Most often one would use a weighted average, adjusting weights to each methodology according to whatever one expects the business climate to be over the next year. Most weighted averages would point to north of 1,600/share. Some (MW); will focus on only the lowest number, but if the arguments just aren't credible .... it's no different to the whining kid in the back of the mini-van. If the squeaky wheel gets the grease, simply buy in their shares at adjusted book value and cancel. Thank you for making it possible in a single transaction! and an adjusted book value towards 1,600. Our own view is that the US, India, and Euro-bank are obvious concentrations. One business growing into 3 new ones over time, that ultimately get spun off into majority holdings under a holding company paying a very high dividend. Good luck to all. SD

We expect a mining sell-off the closer we get to halving date, and lower prices through the summer. Anticipate buying back cheaper. We've also done very well via the BTC-ETF's; but we're trading stupid quantities of units, and our portfolio distortion is extreme. Needs to end. It also doesn't hurt that MW has also given us another opportunity by which to temporarily park some change in FFH A month out, we could well be up another 4% SD