SharperDingaan

The coalition falls tomorrow, there are elections, new leadership, and an end to the war; oil prices drop like a brick. To your point ... keep doing the same things over and over, and there very likely will be more wars. So one has to try something different; best case it results in something better, worst case it defaults back to today's outcomes. But there is no possibility of a better outcome unless one attempts it. Every time there is another war, it is a roll of the dice. Even if you consistently have the mightiest armies, best intelligence services, tightest grip on your people, etc ... keep rolling the dice ... and eventually the dice will roll against you. Nobody is omnipotent forever. Israel is a small country, fighting a war, and burning resources at an incredible rate; rolling general strikes will quickly bring Israel to its knees, forcing change. That change can either come the revolutionary way, or the civilised way - but it will come. SD

What is the view now that there are nation wide general strikes in Israel? Sure it's no big deal to legally ban today's strike; but nothing prevents a new strike tomorrow, and the more days of strike, and the more times strikes are banned ... the more unstable the coalition wobbles. The Ukraine had the Orange Revolution ... and it ultimately changed the world; have to think that something similar is at risk here. https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2024/9/2/israelis-strike-for-gaza-deal-after-more-captives-found-dead https://www.yahoo.com/news/israeli-labor-court-orders-strike-163640648.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orange_Revolution It would seem that the issues are being forced to a head, one way or another; and by the US election date. No dog in this (other than the direction of oil prices), but one has to think that it's past time to give peace a chance. SD

Interesting reading .... but a couple of caveats. This is just the <5% of successes in both business, and succession; most of that other 95% will have had very different experiences. It is also a very different thing when you're a private vs a public company; as nobody regrets getting out of public reporting and its short-term mindset. Then keep in mind the colourful 5-10% that are very good at what they do; but habitually just happen to be on the wrong side of the law ... lot of generational businesses in there! Personalities also have a lot to do with it. SD

The takeaway from all this .... is evolution. Getting comfortable with being both 'buy and hold' (long core position) and short (flex, swing-trade, etc.) - on the same stock, and at the same time; and often on many of the same companies! (we prefer to do FFH around dividend time). It's not giving up on a thesis, it's merely using your accumulated knowledge/experience (alpha). Recognising that you can't swing for the fences until you have both ongoing liquidity (T-Bills &/or marginable stock > USD 10) and reliable diminished cash outflows. Then recognising that when you do swing at a junior, you need to have at least a 100,000+ shares at < 1.00 if the risk is to produce a meaningful result. Most have this backwards. Recognising that AUM is purely a wealth managers compensation metric. Most people just want to be able to eventually reliably retire comfortably; AUM primarily exist to be used, not to contribute to someone else's compensation. Realising that the tax tail shouldn't wag the dog. Take the gain today, pay the tax, pay down some mortgage .... versus risk losing it altogether and/or suffering a benefits claw-back later (for the rest of your life) 'cause your taxable income is now too high. Takes a while to learn! SD

Yes it's the GSIB bank. Not a popular choice, but with the forced merger of CS, and the Basel related guarantees of ALL Central Banks, it's pretty hard to see it as anything else. At the current price it's still less than double what it was in March 2023 (CS merge), the Swiss Central Bank isn't going to be accepting of anything less than a 'Swiss Finish', and we would have no difficulty exiting at market price. SD

We periodically pull capital out of the equity portfolio to keep it within our tolerance (forced sale), and park the funds in T-Bills/Canada's/BTC/UBS for a time before ultimately repatriating some of the capital. Creates an always-on-call marginable liquidity cushion should we need it. We can also 'sidecar' the equity portfolio as we need to, via 're-assignment'. We treat BTC/UBS as cash equivalents which a lot of others wouldn't do .... a privilege that comes with managing your own funds vs OPM. SD

No worries! it's just a different approach. We systematically take $ off the table, because we invest in oil/gas (high volatility) ... and forever have the well-known bumper sticker branded on our ass ... “Please God, give me one more oil boom. I promise not to piss it all away next time.” Obsidian being a very good example! Truly despised back in the day (and still is), OBE was < CAD 30c (post 7:1 consolidation) at one point, run by idiots ... and you couldn't spit/sh1t it far enough! But .... good bones can carry a lot of sh1te; and despite managements (& the markets) best efforts, OBE refused to die. We had progressively swing traded down, eventually ending up with a huge position (and a lot of capital 'at risk') that would buy us a house (mortgage free) if it worked out, and were ridiculed! Fast forward; it has worked out very well, we have a nice house mortgage free, and 40% of the original position left - now entirely funded with house money. Were OBE to go to zero tomorrow we've still won. However, we continue to hold 'cause we're pretty sure that isn't going to happen. Future promise is always alluring, but how much is it actually worth today? We use a 35% discount rate, and on concentrated positions ... prefer to reduce our 'at risk' capital to manageable levels as soon as practical. Sure we give up opportunity ... but when you will still be up millions, it really doesn't matter; and is a small price to pay for a sound sleep every night. Wouldn't do this with a BRK; but I'd be an idiot not to .... were I investing in a highly volatile BTC-ETF. Different strokes. SD

One concentrates to get rich, and diversifies to stay rich. It's not a casino, and a live hero progressively takes $ off the table as the position performs; paying down debt/mortgages to lower monthly P & I obligations. ' Cause if you are suddenly underwater tomorrow ... it's a lot easier carry when you have lower monthly payments to make. Swing trades are expected, and part of the process. These are companies that you know extremely well, how they make money, when, and their inherent risks; manic depressives will routinely offer you opportunities, that should be exploited. Systematically sell high, buy back low, and take the $ gains off the table. Solid risk management, and temperament are core; most don't have the patience, can't tolerate being a 'market outsider', and lack the circle of competence/technical expertise. But after a while, move a good chunk of the portfolio out of your direct management; hubris is a fine line. Also keep in mind that for most people,diversification doesn't mean an index fund; it's often 3-5 dividend payers, T-Bills, bonds, indexed pensions, and a fully paid off house. Minimised cash outflow obligations, offset against pension cash inflow, with dividends/interest covering any shortfall; T-Bills covering sudden liquidity demands. Diversification via different means. SD

Our big summer transaction was a BTC swing trade around the halving, and a gradual 50% repurchase around the 58K mark; gains poured into GXE.TO which has remained flat-lined, but pays a 9% monthly cash dividend. Very old fashioned .... until that one day .... when we'll suddenly look like a hero SD

First there was temple-bar in the afternoon, then the concert ... then the airport show the next morning! The 3-hour pre-arrival for international flights that became 4-hours, as every 2nd/3rd hung-over 65+ geezer in AC/DC gear made their way home ... playing the sound on their phone (as loudly as tolerable), 3-5 at a time! I understand that similar to Taylor Swift ... Dublin return via Ryan Air, plus two nights hotel, plus concert ticket, plus a duty-free 750 ml bottle of Jameson to take home with you, was expected to be about the same price as buying a ticket at home (were it available). Of course ... it's Ryan Air .... so you're only taking your passport/carry-on with you Great concert. SD

ETH ... The reality is that ETH is obsolete from the business POV. It is the old world give me development cash for a functional token (running on an ERC code) that does something ... vs the new world of bypass the token entirely and pay only for the demonstrated functionality as/when needed with CBDC. No developer risk, no inventory of non-liquid token with minimal cash value, don't pay if it can't do. Startup developers nightmare. ETH is obsolete processing. It is far cheaper to simply buy capacity on someone else's high capacity private ledger that includes smart contract capability; no different to the everyday make vs buy decision that all businesses do every week. However it will not takeoff until a MicroSoft offers this to the masses the same way that it offers Excel, Word, Access, etc. Not tomorrow ...but the fuse is clearly burning. Marketing wise, ETH is a failure because there is no mass product (ie: MS Office). Functionally, it's purely a startup development tool within the tech community, a step up from a Go Fund Me campaign; serves a purpose, but it's never going to be mass market. It is also questionable whether ETH or CBDC/T-Bills better diversify a crypto portfolio. Do your own back tests before forming an opinion ... Tech has little choice but to sing praises to ETH as it is a development funding tool. However, everyone else doesn't have to swallow the Kool-Aid. SD

MtGox, FTX/Alameda, multitude of smaller law enforcement seizures in various jurisdictions around the world, collateral that was put up for loans (Tether), etc. While derivatives can transfer beneficial ownership at any time (avoiding on-chain visibility), borrowers have to maintain enough ongoing liquidity to settle MTM adjustments; when they suddenly can't .... it's the same as a margin call. Collateral gets sold down, not HODLed. SD

AC/DC in Dublin. Last show in the European Tour. SD

Few doubt that demand for BTC will increase with rising adoption in the institutional market, but there is very little recognition that bankruptcies have frozen 10%+ of total supply. As that supply gets distributed it will force down price as recipients sell at the margin. Selling pressure also amps further as miners have incentive to sell their BTC asap versus hold for an appreciation gain as well. Sell quick to maximize cash, hedging covering losses on any BTC below the strike. if you think bankruptcy recipients will not sell down their written off BTC, power to you. But most everyone who has a lottery win spends at least part of it, before putting away the rest. An unstable market overhang that could go at any time. Sentiment changes every day. Have to think there will be at least a few days when the manic depressives are doing their thing. Seems a shame to stand in their way! SD

The reality is that btc is < 60,000 when many hoped it would be > 8O,000 by now; lot of bunnies looking for 'guidance' and not finding it. Not much reason to accumulate until US election results are known, and lots of reason to trade the rips - raising volatility. Opportunity. GLTA SD

Just another day during the 'good old days' of the VSE Nobody can make anything on these things unless they control the box, and they are most vulnerable just before the pump is launched. Blow the box apart, collapse the track record, and their creditors will do the rest. Thereafter, make a bulk offer for the now dud inventory .... and take over the box As with everything else there are a few very good at this; they pay a fee, and are left to keep the rest in line. Regulation just done a different way, and far more effective than it might otherwise be. SD

The US (+ most of western Europe) has long kept its BTC, acquired over the years via its various security arms, as a 'off-book' strategic reserve. Ever since the Silk Road clampdown, the US has remained one of the biggest holders of BTC, and is very likely the actual owner of many a cold storage whale vault. Bills quietly die, and business goes on as usual. SD

It would seem that BTC has been making its way into many an institutional IPS, and that we're finally moving towards a more widespread commercial implementation of a version of BTC protocol. Winners and losers, largely a function of their ability to successfully manage change. SD

It's summer, silly season, and a lot easier to just follow the haters versus think for yourself. Notable is that the drillers Q2 report outlooks are suddenly more optimistic, and that the WCP Q2 vs Q1 netbacks are $5+ higher; with only 1/2 of 1 one month reflecting the lower differentials resulting from new TCP pipe. Most would expect the Q3 netback to be similar or better, and WCP to be representative. Help yourself, while everyone is enjoying the Olympics. Then join them at the patio once you're done SD

We did very well on AQN; but exited a long time ago as there are so many better Canadian risk/return options. If you think the Republicans sweep the upcoming US election, TC Energy is a far better opportunity. Pure speculation: Imagine that 'Drill Baby Drill' also translates into a change in the Canadian federal government, and the Keystone XL pipeline being restarted. The existing write-offs would very likely be reversed, and otherwise payable compensation re NAFTA would very likely go toward guaranteeing debt on the remainder of the pipeline build. An additional 830K bbl/day of heavy crude, on top of the new egress from Canada's west coast - and all of it a material bump in TC's rate base, leading to higher dividends Complete Keystone XL, and the McKenzie Valley quickly enters the frame; transporting Alaskan/North-Shore/Beaufort Sea oil/gas to the US - via pipeline through the US/Nunavut/BC/Alberta instead of via sea. Debt repayment on Keystone funding the build cost. Sock drawer stock, that will benefit the next generation. SD

Its really an indication that the MakerDAO ecosystem is under stress. Any CB with a CBDC could do this tomorrow (China); the CB simply creates a new ledger for every treasury issued, and thereafter processes the security the same way as it is already doing with its CBDC. Full transparency (to the CB) over the securities life from birth to death. Trying to do this via a stable-coin is an attempt to money launder, via a treasury purchase out of the market. Gives an idea as to the nature of MakerDAO's ecosystem, and its magnitude. MakerDAO is a Chinese entity SD

Please, please, please ..... let the US Fed take over what the US security services currently holds. 'Cause without it, we're all f***** !!! SD

Just keep in mind that it's only Q2; many a company will announce direction but doesn't actually declare until January. SCR also have incentive to buy back some of their own stock (using dividend funds) and do tuck-in acquisitions paid for with stock and cash from the drilling budget. Drilling companies are all forecasting 'no change in activity' for the rest of the year, and the industry has been paying down debt for quite some time. Most would expect that post TMP expansion, newly found cash will be aggressively going into M&A consolidation. SD

Welcome to the board! Long a proponent of concentrated positions, a couple of takeaways .... 1) How you get into it, drives your investment approach; getting rich, versus staying rich, is very different. 2) Successors have different interests, tastes, and skill sets; there are ways around this, but assume riches/rags in 1 generation. 3) Investment expertise and an independent approach helps; but simpler the better. On real estate, we take a page from the multi-generational living page-book. Rather than each generation on a different floor within the same house; we prefer to split the house ownership across generations - kid with 50%+ financed via a mortgage, parents/grandparents willing their <50% to future grand-kids. Investment RE held in a corporate structure, each property in its own entity, and debt used to reduce net income to zero (zero-tax). Whether the RE be a dwelling (London, UK), or the partnership portion in a hotel (Paris, France). Sadly, the better one does at this, the more corrosive to the overall family that success becomes. Hence, to keep the family 'healthy' you need to have a way of systematically giving some of it away; we try to trigger an earlier payment of taxes, so that there's less to pay on passing. Just have to get past intentionally writing the CRA a cheque! SD

Now with a 7:1 consolidation, a ridiculous share count, and a trading opportunity. www.cathedralenergyservices.com/_files/ugd/b8bab0_244f29c1d5694e80b1ed6b998900a6a7.pdf SD