SharperDingaan

Brain drain. It used to be that the US benefited 'cause the money, freedom to do the research, and ability to work with the best in the world were there. Now the money is restricted (for classified purposes only), you are much more constrained (outside of classified research), and many of the best (outside of classified research) can no longer travel to the US (visa refusals/restrictions)... either for work, or to attend academic conferences. You work in a Canada, Europe, Asia, South America, etc; funded by globally integrated Horizons grants instead. Their loss .... SD

Immediate and material jump in spot crude price, adding to the reduction from Russian exports SD

Shuush ...... Don't crowd out the trade, 'cause if they don't get done for front running ... you will not either! SD

Keep in mind that the US is also actively doing its best to mitigate the rise in the price of crude and LNG. Part of that is singing lullaby's, while also aggressively selling spot and buying futures. When the fat lady sings .. it's usually a good time to consider taking the other side; the higher the octaves, the cheaper the position cost SD

GDP Growth reflects productivity (more goods for sale), and the greater export of those goods (competitiveness). Goods produced by either machine (robot, software, reused rockets (SpaceEx), etc.), or humans (crops, retail, nursing, manufacturing unskilled/semi-skilled labour, etc.). The US made a lot of lot of goods by machine, cheap enough that the world wanted to buy them; and didn't have to pay as much as it should have for the manual labour used (use/abuse of illegals, etc). That labour saving pushing GDP higher. With today's tariffs; US goods are now more expensive to make, not as globally competitive, and buyers have active incentive to diversify away from the US as much as possible. US deportations also reducing the cheap labour pool, and pushing up costs. Today's GDP growth star (US) .... becoming tomorrows dog. Today's dog (Canada) ... becoming tomorrows star as greater volumes of oil sell to the world at higher prices, using pretty much the same number of people. CAD progressively strengthening against USD. Most everywhere you look, the name of the game is distrust and reduced exposure to the US. Wherever possible, supply chains permanently diversifying reliance upon US sources, moving away from USD pricing, and engaging in tariff free trade with each other wherever practical. Many already avoid tourism is the US, boycott US produce purchase, etc ..... were tariffs to go to zero tomorrow, it isn't going back to what it was. Obscure linkages, highly unlikely to change the mind of anyone in the US, but it really doesn't have to. She still gets to go to the ball, but all the other girls at the party progressively get more dances at her expense. SD

Think I found some of the members of the COBF Favourites are Walter, and Achmed the Dead Terrorist. https://ca.video.search.yahoo.com/yhs/search?fr=yhs-fc-5918_3&ei=UTF-8&hsimp=yhs-5918_3&hspart=fc&param1=7&param2=eJwtjstqwzAURH9FywQk%2BV5bkqVoFTfNB5SuKrRQHNURfmI7uPTri0uYzcCcgdOku7P%2B44IAUpbKUT846wWAcNTvk6O%2BdtYbYxz1aXLWYym41hyF4SU46ps4Ouvr4Kh%2FBmd9P%2F6mrguZ5EAOWxru47aQYSUIHCzZ0qCEJT9KHEmYpi5u8damNZNFyQtFDu1j7TtKutRG0sS6HY%2BkfsxjHzMUisMesoTvMKfXZdda0kv1ucT5v78VQsp3DQxAVQzxiszoa8E0XtRZF1idVbXz9Q7nkCsGOYP8E80JyxMonmv4%2BgMi31GY&p=walter+from+jeff+dunham&type=fc_A0DBACA6D59_s69_g_e_d_n4004_c999#action=view&id=34&vid=5721e536f105007f4e1db18bb58a0574 Enjoy! SD

Over the shorter term; boots either hit the ground and everything spikes on the uncertainty, or there's an agreement and a price spike on the Iranian assassinations. No idea what prevails, or when; but the obvious approach is a long straddle. Over the nearer term; we have no idea as to the full extent of damage caused (existing, and to come). Best expectation is lower prices than today, and prices a lot higher than they were before the war started; pick your own range and timing. What we do know, is that with higher prices, the whole o/g sector becomes materially more profitable. How much to the upstream and downstream a mystery; largely dependant upon local geography, production and refining. How much of a windfall tax, and for how long ... dependent upon lobbying and bribes. O/G can either pay down debt, buyback shares/pay higher dividends, consolidate via M&A, or drill. The least tone-deaf is consolidation, drilling and processing to extract the efficiencies, and paying down post acquisition debt as rapidly as possible. Avoidance of excessive buybacks and dividend hikes, also avoiding windfall tax. O/G flush, while other sectors experience liquidity loss. Sector rotation into O/G dropping index levels further as other sectors sell down. Range of opportunities . Volatility management is part of investment. SD

There is nothing wrong with macro, as long as it is within context. If you make your money trading volatility, then day-to-day macro shocks can matter - but it's not most people. If you make your money investing over multi-year time horizons, it is much less relevant; what matters is the more medium term developing patterns, and their likely directional impact. Not to say that one can't do both, and at the same time ... but it's entirely different mindsets. SD

Thing is, after everything is blown up and the opposition leadership is gone, one can't just get back on the boat and/or fly home. One needs presence on the ground to fill the power vacuum left behind, to cut deals with the next set of warlords, leave ships behind to keep the SOH open. All those targets, still high crude prices, and a constant dribble of body bags back home. Vietnam 2.0 ... but without the draft, and fewer protests. WTI at USD 75/bbl plus for some time, with periodic spikes. Without a regional 'deal' that all can live with, this doesn't end well. Spikes before then, but one year out .... WTI at USD 65-70/bbl plus for a long time ... inclusive of some kind of transit fee for a global maritime policeman over major shipping routes. SD

The left hand tail risk (great investment, not recognised) is visible to all, the right hand tail risk (utter sh1te, not recognised) is not; we just don't want to hear it. Example: Right after a utilities dividend is cut in 1/2; the stock will typically drop a good 40%+, in addition to the recent 25%+ decline to date. It's a scam!, can't trust the management!, will never touch this sector again!, gran/grandpa venting on their stupid decision!, yada, yada. When it is actually one of the best times to buy; the div yield will often be 6%+, and often a lot higher 5 years out as the utility tries to restore as much of the 'cut' dividend as possible. The press will even give you the name in live time .... you will not even have to search for it . There are many other examples as well. In most every case one will have today's price, at least 5-10 yrs of historic financials, lots of drama ... and a number of potential paths out. However; crowd paralysis, and herd mentality ... will ensure the stock remains a tail risk, until somebody proves otherwise. When suddenly you're a hero. These are great investments ..... if you can get out of your own way. Not many people can. SD

They've got broad shoulders .... they'll be fine . Lots of US friends; whereas the government ... not so much a fan. The US has a great many very real problems, they are getting a lot worse, and they are spilling over into neighbour's. While we wish them the best, it is hard to see how it ends well, or without another Kennedy. Sadly, the best that we can do is a better boat, against the day the sh1te hits the fan. SD

Tail risk is just part of life. We can do the Taleb Bar-Bell (long straddle) and make it work for us, or try to do our best to avoid it. It's a much richer life taking on risk (love, adrenaline sports, etc.), than living under a rock hoping the sky doesn't fall. Evolution is constant; so it should not be surprising that what worked well last cycle, maybe doesn't today. SD

That 20.7% for the US is mostly the contribution from ripping off all those millions of illegals ..... Now deported. Edit: On the agricultural side; paying < minimum wage, not paying at all under threat of deportation, scalping on cheque clearing and money transfers, overcharging on substandard accommodation, etc, etc; lot of others, on the manufacturing side as well. Take away that abused labour, and you ain't getting 20.7% growth. SD

Notable is that there isn't much difference between the two. Of course, it's a public trial balloon ... so they aren't going to agree with each other ; look at the commonalities/differences instead. https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3/25/us-iran-mediation-what-are-each-sides-demands-and-is-a-deal-possible No nukes. China/Russian supervision instead, no different to Israeli/American supervision ? End of war/proxy fighting (Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthi, Israel, Gulf States, etc.). Private settlements remain open ? No objection to SOH transits and reparations. Mechanism and duration to be negotiated ? War-crime exposures settled the old fashioned way, .... problems that all would prefer to 'go away'. SD

Way more rabid than most .... As do many others, we primarily use cash/BTC/bonds to handle the tail risk. We give up some upside to hopefully avoid most of the downside; insurance. Where possible, re-entry via warrants, LEAPS and calls in the same stocks; all very conservative. Then, very occasionally, a material disruption threatens (war, expropriation, etc) ..... and we play rough hockey. Gloves off offence, winner take all, life changing gains; expectation that we lose everything at home, more than make it back elsewhere, but will need to start again ... ahead of where we were. BTC for good reason, and very hard to kill. Should it ever happen; ideally, we don't lose our home .... and are just very well paid for our risk tolerance, expertise, and experience . Not long after completing university, I partnered with friends to undertake an "adventure in the nature of trade"; to quietly bulk buy clothing out of a former soviet military warehouse on the Baltic coast (Glasnost/Perestroika time), resell it in the west, and keep the gains. More familiar with the dark arts, I was one of those doing the on site 'negotiation'. One of the takeaways was that while the people overall were incredibly kind, it was hard to ignore the ingrained poverty, .... and we all swore it was never going to happen to us. A long and winding path later we ended up with 672 premier tickets to the most prestigious Millennial Ball in Vienna, a once in a century all night tuxedo/gown event, that really had to be experienced to be believed. Spouse and I unable to go ... as we had to babysit and test Y2K rollovers that went flawlessly . The event of the f******* century, and we swore it was never going to happen to us again! Point here .... enjoy the rewards as well ! SD

Keep repeating ... " I need a long straddle on Orange Boy, I need a long straddle on Orange Boy ... quick!; before some idiot takes him out too early ". But miss the opportunity .... and Orange Boy will piss on your grave, for the rest of your days. SD

Nations can put up war ships, sailors, helicopters for a time ..... but the reality is that it's expensive, pushes up insurance rates, and it's a time limited engagement. Or nations can be intelligent; pay the levee, recover it through lower insurance costs, and apply those naval savings against higher energy costs. It isn't whether to pay or not, it's how much, and for how long Lot to be said for a high rate, and for 10-15 years; proceeds used to pay for damages throughout the gulf, not just Iran. The political solution. No different to paying for damages after a bar fight; you broke it, you pay for it. This is just how you go about doing that. SD

Existing pipelines run in corridors of 'negotiated' land; back in the day, the pipe was suspended on stilts that kept them above the ground (cheaper to build). The monster at that time was the Trans Mountain Pipeline from Alberta to BC tidewater, which is now roughly 75 years old, and due for replacement. The modern replacement would be a tear out and replacement at near 3x the size, that would also remove the environmental hazard of such old pipe. Relatively straight forward with today's tech, very difficult to environmentally oppose, but would be expensive and time consuming while temporarily not disrupting flow as the build goes ahead (similar to reworking a major train station while hourly trains keep running). It will happen, but the limitation is primary the labour to build, and expanded tanker traffic at tidewater. The major eastern opportunity is above ground replacement of the Sarnia pipe that supplies Ontario's refineries. Straight forward build, tied up in Michigan opposition and US politics, but the build could be completed within one presidential cycle. Keystone expansion (southbound pipe) is similarly hamstrung as Venezuelan production; the previous build had to be removed and written off because the US changed its mind. A new build would be contingent on the US reimbursing the write-off, and that reimbursement paying for the build. Longer term, the big opportunity is greenfield state of the art new rail, electric, and pipe through to the port of Churchill (Manitoba), supported with state-of-the-art ice-breakers. Primarily engineering, marine, and manufacturing/construction challenges for Canada's youth that opens up the north; nukes at Churchill potentially also supplying electricity to the eastern north coast and Greenland. All of this requiring enormous vision/borrowing, both internally and externally, to bring it forward. Opportunity of a lifetime for the homegrown with deep expertise/experience in major project execution, and the young 'best of best' ..... hence the dollar-a-year men/women. The tell your future grand kids that you helped build this stuff. Yet 18 months ago, this was utterly unimaginable; we've come quite a ways since Orange Boy showed up SD

Almayadeen is the main Lebanese newspaper, no different to Qatar's Al Jazeera; it is simply the view from the Arab side of the street, vs western propaganda. We know there are talks going on; and it is highly likely this was an intentionally 'leaked' story with an agenda. It's a negotiation, demands are fluid, and a haggle; nobody has to agree with all of it, they just have to be able to reach an accommodation they can all live with. Trump and Netanyahu are old men, quite possibly dead/invalided within 10 years; defer war crime prosecution until both are dead. We've been given a glimpse. SD

Just looking at the world as it is ... not the way we would like it be. The world needs this to end, this is just the starting draft, and the end result will be better. It will not be what either the US/Israel or the Iranians want, it will be something that they can live with. Each side will rant, but unless they have something better ..... Wars occur because both parties couldn't get a political solution. Might may win for a time, but eventually you will be forced to give the land back .... as almost every former colonial power learns over time. SD

We are extremely fortunate to have a Carney ... very well versed politically (multiple central banker!), but not a career politician. Things are happening, but it takes a while to both turn things around and recompense/fairly treat many of the long standing grievances across the land. Recognise that there are actually FOUR founding nations in Canada (Inuit, First Nation, French, English), and goodwill opens a lot of possibilities. Then you need to execute on that goodwill .... BC's recent lack-of-a-treaty ruling included. Japan used to have MITI; it would seem that Canada is doing something similar, with Calgary's major projects office as one of the nodes. Not just the projects, but the new 'dollar-a-year' men to drive their financing, execution, and build out as well. Most would expect that the scale will require financing on par with Canada's War Bond campaigns through WWII, and we are already seeing signs of it. That proposed Defence, Security, and Resilience Bank didn't just suddenly ... 'appear' https://www.economicsonline.co.uk/factors-of-production/miti-and-the-economic-development-miracle-of-japan.html/ https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/news/2026/03/canada-hosts-partners-to-advance-establishment-of-the-defence-security-and-resilience-bank.html This isn't just a 'wealth transfer' it's a way more valuable 'execution transfer' as well. That fit, able, and open-minded young person looking for adventure ... hard pressed to find a better opportunity. But it would never have happened without Orange Boys threats. SD

It isn't just what the asset and liability FX denominations are, it's also where the head office (controlling mind) is, the investor protections on that home exchange (TSX), and what the overall USD exposure looks like net of FX swaps for the next decade or so. A FFH would be similar to the big 5 banks, big 3 Lifeco's, etc. Canadian. SD

Iranian conditions for ending the war ... https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/senior-iranian-official-outlines-conditions-for-ending-war Tehran has outlined six key conditions as part of what the official described as a new legal and strategic framework: Guarantees to prevent the recurrence of war Closure of US military bases in the region Payment of compensation to the Islamic Republic An end to wars across all regional fronts Establishing a new legal framework for the Strait of Hormuz Prosecution and extradition of media figures deemed hostile to Iran Have to think the media figures are Netanyahu and Trump, prosecuted for war crimes; an eye (Khomeini) for an eye (Netanyahu/Trump), ultimately dropped for an end to wars across all regional fronts. Guarantees to prevent the recurrence of war, and a new legal framework for the Strait of Hormuz, rolled into one under a coalition type umbrella. Orange Boy goes home, US military bases in the region are closed, a SOH transit fee compensates the Islamic Republic, and the Iranian nuclear program continues under a Chinese/Russian umbrella (adults in the room). Spin it as you like. Noteworthy is that Netanyahu/Trump are also a material problem within both Israel and the US, that all would like disposed of (bath tub, tall building, etc). Perhaps what cannot be done at home, can be done as a war crime prosecution at the Hague instead ???? Establish the process .... Putin and others to follow . Very shrewd, and right up there with the best. Interesting times. SD

Float 'awe & might' destruction if you don't open the SOH, right now! Sure bud .... crude/LNG is still flowing, you weren't able to do it for the last two weeks, and friends wouldn't contribute escorts while hostilities continued - so why take the yap seriously ??? Cry wolf too often, and we all stop listening . It would seem that paymasters told Orange Boy to f*** o** , and negotiate. Blow the power/water facilities and people die, restrict the SOH transit and buyers just pay more; paymasters ALWAYS get reimbursed for failed protection It's pretty clear that Orange Boy is fishing for an exit ... and there is little reason to be gracious. Most would expect continued high prices for many months, a transit fee paid to Iran for damages, some sort of coalition shipping escort, and a series of US humiliations. 90-days to exit some of the Gulf bases (permanently), non-confidence cancellation of US weapons purchases, accelerated withdrawal of US capital to repair/rebuild, etc, etc. After all .... what good is a US base in a Qatar if it just attracts attacks ??, the US can't reliably defend it ??, and it shuts in exports when tensions explode ??. Better to kick the US out, pay some of the protection money elsewhere, and get back to making money. A year out, it could look quite different . Cuba next ... but maybe ongoing refined product now comes from the Gulf vs Russia ?? Squeeze . SD

Highly suggest that you pass on Porto at the moment, as the flooding has been devastating. Tourist operators are asking that tourists temporarily stay away, and leave what's available to the rescue workers. Come back next year; there will be lots of deals and the population will really thank you for the business. Highly recommend a visit to the Imperial McDonalds; it truly has to be experienced! https://www.localporto.com/mcdonalds-imperial-porto-restaurant/ SD