SharperDingaan

It isn't going well US gas prices continue to rise, tariff continuation now under threat and refunds due, midterms rapidly approaching, debt getting harder to sell, indices trending down, petroyuan getting a boost, and now; every nation negotiating safe passage through the SOH ... pissing on Orange Boy, while lowering crude prices . Welcome to the Muppet Show ! SD

Opportunity, opportunity, opportunity !!! SD

Pretty simple choice: 1) Free world accedes to US demands for military escorts through the SOH and the Red Sea; or 2) negotiate with Iran for free passage. Mines in the water, blowing up whatever traffic is non compliant; refused tariff removal for escort participation ????, take the negotiated option https://www.cnbctv18.com/india/india-in-talks-with-iran-for-safe-passage-of-oil-tankers-through-strait-of-hormuz-jaishankar-araghchi-ws-l-19867053.htm Physical spot delivered in Asia trades for USD 140/bbl+ vs USD 100/bbl at Cushing; Europe either matches the price or loses the cargo of a diverted tanker. Negotiation is not volume constrained, delivers immediate results, and is a lot more reliable that sending escorts ... and hoping they don't sink. Negotiate All that Orange Boy can do is yap and threaten ... all hat, no cattle No ships. No NATO obligations either as the US was not intentionally attacked. Want help ? drop tariffs .... or please f*** o** ..... your choice Great for Canadian west coast exports though! Fill our own contracted tankers, sell at the Asian spot, and sell as much as we can possibly send. Premium prices though ... as this is heavy oil, and even more in demand Draw. SD

Shush The beaters are flushing birds through the trap. SD

Sure ... take the tariffs off, and we'll talk about it All I see is a drowning man. SD

Most would expect crude to again be > USD 100/bbl this week. https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-market-set-tumultuous-week-100738952.html There is no reason to help the US until they drop tariffs. To date, to mitigate the adverse economic effects; sanctions have been removed from Russian oil, and the largest SPR release in history approved .... yet the US is still imposing tariffs on its friends, and turning away help 'cause 'we've already 'won'. Crude continues to flow out to a China and there is no reason for them to send ships or help 'pay' for the security; it is only different for everyone else, who are allowing US bases on their soil to be used. There are simple solutions ... but zero incentive to engage them, until tariffs are gone Much better, if the SOH remains closed another week There is also no need for an Iran to use western bank rails, or settle in USD. China's banking system is quite capable, and has also handled most Russian trade/settlement for quite some time. Petroyuan recycling can readily parallel/replace Petrodollar recycling. The US is pissed 'cause they've been shown to be incompetent, have no plan, and friends are backing away. All that shock and awe; yet Iranian missiles continue to fly, and it is Iranian efforts that are allowing trickles of crude past the SOH. Bombing isn't doing anything but dig the hole deeper. Have to think there's a new US Secretary Defense within the new few weeks. SD

Actually, take out the consumer and nobody loses 5% margin on $2 gasoline is only 10c ... but on $4 gasoline, it's now 20c !! Trucks and drivers will typically be fixed costs, that do not change with more but shorter deliveries; assuming no idiots driving hybrids or all electric trucks ... screwing up the party. Long haulers lose traffic to inter-modal rail, but pick it up again at the last mile. Joe six-pack ain't gonna walk, and just buys $20 worth of gas at a time. Comes back tomorrow if he doesn't get rid of the gas guzzler or change his driving habits. Repeats a few times ... and suddenly all kinds of F150, F250, and F350 become available cheap, via repossession. SD

Nah ... it's just price at whatever the market will bear. Go next door until their tank runs dry, then pay my price until his next delivery arrives .... on which he will charge more than what I'm charging you; gotta love competition No change in working capital, as suppliers partially fill their tanks for faster turnover, and motorists buy less per fill while filling more often. All about that Roman SPQR! (Small Profit Quick Return). SD

Ordinarily, a few days at most ... as every fuel supplier will instantly raise prices to get a windfall out of the existing inventory. By the end of the week there would be a national cap on the amount that can be charged, and a steep rise in the futures curve; downstream losses recouped upstream SD

All that crude leaving Kharg Island by tanker .... also leaves the Arabian Sea without incident, before passing into the Indian Ocean. No seizures ... yet there are so many US ships there .... it is like flies on sh1te Simple matter to change cargo ownership to Chinese and Russian, and to use the Russian shadow fleet. Drones in, crude out, wave at the pretty sailors as you sail by A draw. SD

Until now, Orange Boy has always been able to escape his disruption caused. But Iran is a 'tar baby', he has trapped himself, and has now begun to drown. Friday's doubling down were the first thrashings of a man who can't swim . Crude futures run up next week, there ain't no SPR release to bail him out. This time out It'll be relaxation of tariffs, UK/French ships escorting Iranian cargo's out, and extended relaxation of Russian o/g sanctions. SOH closed for another week. Every godfather knows .... capos are there to take the blame. When that doesn't work, partners; maybe Netanyahu's rumoured demise becomes a reality .... fog of war, etc. And when doesn't work .... SD

If he was going to bomb the oil he would either have already done it, or the marines would already be there. They aren't, and Iranian oil continues to flow out to China every day; shortly flowing to France and the UK as well ... potentially under their fleet protection. The US is just pissed 'cause the Iranians have forced a draw ... all that shock and awe failing to produce a win. Destroy Kharg facilities, the Iranians blow the E-W pipeline, and 4M+ bbl/day of supply instantly vanishes. Another American cluster f***. A draw. SD

Nah .... those less successful people just recognise that Orange Boy is worth more dead than alive; he's the better and bigger target, and they will be beneficiaries of the vacuum his departure creates. Professional courtesy SD

Nothing wrong with keeping limbs intact, and a clear head Also very useful being able to operate in both environments. Warlords change but regimes have a habit of successful adaption to changing times. When the wealth is in the ground, via agriculture or distribution; it isn't possible to get it out, without paying a protection fee that also extends to the ports. One can disrupt, and maybe live long enough to benefit ...... but it isn't going away A year out ... it probably looks very much like it looks like today; just higher prices and different faces. SD

Congratulations on getting out. SD

Two articles worth keeping in mind: Alberta (and BC/Saskatchewan) producers are going to be coining it. While the love will be spread around, most of the production benefit will go to the heavy oil and gas producers; Asia bound Russian cargo's sold to Europe at a premium, and swapped for Canadian West Coast cargos to save on the transport costs. “$90 a barrel over the course of the year would be sufficient to wipe out, and probably turn into a surplus, what was going to be a $10-billion deficit,” Tyler Meredith, former economic adviser to Canada’s prime minister, said. Even the planned OECD release by members of the International Energy Agency is unlikely to reverse the price trend, Meredith noted, and he is not alone. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Canadian-Crude-Cashes-In-on-War-Premium.html Orange Boy may hate them ... but windmills, wave turbines, etc, exist so as to reduce an importers dependence upon crude. That initial higher cost is an insurance premium ... that disappears as the number of units is scaled up. "The Strait of Hormuz crisis did not create Europe’s energy vulnerability. It merely reminded us that it exists. If the current Hormuz disruption proves anything, it is that the argument was never primarily about climate. It was always about security." https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/North-Sea-Drilling-Wont-Protect-Europe-from-Global-Price-Shocks.html Prices are not going down anytime soon, and windmills are not going away. Not what many are trying to sell SD

Just to add to this ..... Orange Boy is quite some scum, but also the best thing a young person could possibly hope for. Your future depends on change, and the more radical and extreme the change agent the better. Few have been better at burning the establishment down than Trump . The lives of wealthy kids are mapped out for them at birth; while most will cave to the social pressure, only a few rebels are tolerated .... and kids will eventually mellow them (Paris Hilton, Prince Harry, etc). Similar thing for the poor and middle class kids; but the limiter is opportunity, not ability. Those that are able, make opportunity. All those rebels, able to think/do for themselves, and all with chips on the shoulder .... what could possibly be better . Partner, give as well as you get, embrace the world as it is, squeeze, and let the cream rise to the top! Orange Boy has been working hard on removing your barriers Look to the Rockefellers, Morgans, Capones, etc. versus the Musks and Zuckerbergs as the examples ... and the world is yours. Keep in legal, always within the industry 'norm' ..... and you will be your own man. SD

That's simple .... they would like the US red states to separate and make the new capital Mara Lago, Florida!. No more nut cases, illegals, folks disagreeing with you, dysfunctional politics, king of our own castle .... get the hell off my cloud !! Welcome to everyday Quebec! but less strong minded and good looking Last time the north and south battled it out the north won. It would seem that some are hoping for a rematch with a different outcome. SD

Nah ... "Man" implies maturity; "Boy" ..... implies not so much Then the man does love Florida ... maybe there's a servitude thing in there as well ! WTI up nearly USD 10/bbl today, and the day is still early; but hey, we've won https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Trump-Declares-Victory-Over-Iran-Even-as-the-Conflict-Escalates.html SD

Remember ENRON ??? Kenneth Lay did whatever he wanted 'cause he knew he would be dead before the law ever caught up with him (same as Trump); Skilling ( the American people) ended up taking the fall from errors in judgement. Hell of a gig .... as long as nobody calls the game on you. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enron_scandal Thing is ... the game instantly gets called, should Trump get assassinated tomorrow; a gray swan event that is now in a great many state and narco/war lord interests. The top job is a limited time engagement; whether incumbents exit voluntarily, or in a box. What goes around, comes around, and even Caesar went down to his senate. When enough people have no way forward .... the best solution is to break the rack. And when there are lots of potentials that will never feel the fall ... that solution gets a whole lot closer. Gotta love a long straddle SD

9-hour delay, and discussions around tying in additional egress. What would have been tied in during maintenance, now has to be done via a temporary curtailment. Not an issue. SD

Wise men recognise that most others do not have the same experience, expertise, and risk tolerance that they have; markets move on how the 'majority' see the opportunity, not the better informed. That hubris can kill you For many, it is not so obvious that the price of oil through November; will be driven primarily by the US price of gasoline per gallon, and the US indices hitting new records .... agreeing or not is irrelevant. Joe six pack who recognises that could do very well; Joe six pack who doesn't ... remains poor. Doesn't matter much now, but it could be very different come Christmas. You acted, your friend didn't .... he/she is being forced to the food-bank, you've paid all your debts off and have something in the bank as well. Awkward SD

Depending on source, there is still approx 6.9Mb/d of shut in production, net of this. The US can threaten Kharg Island, Iran can threaten that pipeline ... a draw. Ballistic missiles are very good at stationary targets, and at the practical level .... pipelines are very difficult to continuously protect along their entire length. $5/gallon gasoline is probably going to be here for a while. SD

Some idea as to the thinking around an emergency coordinated SPR release ... https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/why-emergency-oil-releases-won-090036135.html “If not for the SPR releases, we likely would have had gas above $5 a gallon for a number of weeks (in 2022) rather than just for a few days,” said Tom Kloza, an independent oil analyst and an advisor to Shell Oil. Canada's contribution would probably be maximisation of heavy oil flow to BC tidewater via existing pipe; good for heavy oil producers throughout the WCSB, and maintaining global refining at existing levels. Elevated, vs spiked prices, for weeks until the US/Iran reach some kind of deal around the SOH. $5 a gallon gas, and pending midterms, incentivising discussion. All those full tankers of sanctioned crude sitting off China's coast, are the floating storage, and market price is the clearing mechanism; not the G7 SPR. SD

All good stocks, and little reason to sell; as they generally didn't run up with the rise in oil price, there is no reason to sell them off either. While there will be a few days benefit from higher prices, and maybe some short term hedging as well ... we will not know what happened until Q1 2025 numbers are released in May. Even if SOH transit resumed unmolested tomorrow, with all the shut-in's, it will take at least a month or two to restore the flow; in the meantime crude may not be USD 100/bbl, but it will very likely remain elevated ... to the benefit of these companies. SD