SharperDingaan

One of a kind. May the rest of us bow before the master! SD

You might also want to keep in mind where your bio-metric scans are, if you have a US NEXUS card. And who is selling/benefiting from your DNA data .... were you fool enough to send it in to an ancestry.com etc. All that you have to do is offer a 'perceived benefit', make it socially popular (social media), and charge a modest sum to process (validates the 'perceived benefit'). 'Somewhat' deliver on the benefit, and the data is yours; no paying people to give it, finding them, legal hassles, etc. ... and all the lemmings rushing to your door. Dictators feed stock. Always a need for good anarchists! SD

It is much more likely he eats/drinks something that disagrees with him; some of his friends catching a similar bug at around the same time. Dictators handbook. SD

No comment, re the use of bonds. Inflation itself is just too much money chasing too few goods; higher mortgage costs have sucked much of the money away, and supply chains are now supplying more goods; significant monthly drops in the CPI should not be a surprise. When Jan data reports in Feb, we will also see the impact of year-end bankruptcies and the Jan inventory liquidations. The good news is that even if the BoC reduced rates, there is a good chance the CPI significantly undershoots the 2% target. Hence, it would appear that the Federal 15B building plan stimulus is not just to get political folks re-elected; it is also a shift away from monetary to fiscal stimulus. Not a bad thing, and well overdue. When construction season restarts, the building plan stimulus will lift the CPI; better for everyone if CPI is < 2% at the time. SD

You might want to do a little data manipulation on the BoC JSON CPI data. Today's CPI of 3.1% suggests that CPI is rolling on at around -0.7%/month, next month's CPI will be around 2.5%; when the December number is published in January - it will probably be < 2.5%. As Xmas retail sales confirm guidance, negative press coverage should accelerate; pushing inflation down further. Then remind yourself that nominal return - inflation = real return; and you could do very well over the next little while! There is a reason for the changing Bond/Equity capital allocation that is currently being touted. SD

Keep in mind that there will also soon be a debt restructuring. Argentina first ..... then others. https://ionanalytics.com/insights/debtwire/argentina-investors-foresee-new-sovereign-debt-restructuring-regardless-of-next-president/ All that is needed is a long-dated zero coupon. Benefit as the zero-coupon reprices to a lower yield, and multiple times again over the medium term; depending upon how the FX is managed. Today it's South America, next week it's Greece; no need to rush SD

You can expect that every Argentinian who has not done so already; will be putting everything they have into crypto, ideally BTC. Mortgage money poured into BTC, and local banks pressured to do everything they can to NOT call in the loans. Today, an Argentine mortgage ($1,000), and a BTC asset ($1,000). Argentine currency devalues by 2/3, 1/3 of the BTC asset sold, $1,000 of Argentine money repatriated and the Argentine mortgage repaid. The true 'intrinsic value' of BTC. All that it requires is someone willing to accept Argentine currency for USD, and there is nothing the Argentine central bank can do about it. They pay for the bribes and whatever Argentine goods they can for export in Argentine currency, and wholesale the cargo for cents on the US dollar as soon as the ship is back in international waters. Within Argentina, good for exports immediately rise by 25%. Outside of Argentina, the price of those goods immediately falls 25%. High value goods (meat) travelling by air. SD

2024, we expect that both the US and Canada end up with new government; primarily from existing incumbents losing, vs the opposition winning. No matter what, both end up more conservative; toss up as to whether Canada has another minority government, versus a majority. We would also expect the faces to change fairly soon after the governments do. Most of the incumbents are toxic; losers have incentive to toss early after their loss, winners after they find out who the new opposition is, Darth Sidious when it serves his purpose. O/G fairly low on the mischief list, independence challenges to the BoC/Fed Reserve (heads on sticks) much higher. Energy wise, our own candidates are reinstatement of Keystone XL, dropping of Kyoto commitments, and a two-stage more rationale energy policy/carbon tax regime; Canada wide first, then Canada/US integration. The industry objection to carbon sequester is the truly-gifted, incompetent policy implementation; the idea itself, is generally well supported. The Kyoto thing, primarily stemming from a realization that the climate models upon which Kyoto was based, are so deeply flawed as to be unusable. They did not adequately allow for the multiple global firestorms of late, arctic melting releasing spumes of methane, ocean waters as warm as bathwater, volcanic activity, etc. Good intent remains, but implementation needs to change. Comes back to strategic swing trading, and the use of liquidity/options to exploit the extremes. One of the better avenues being the sale of out-of-the-money puts, with the intent of getting called; simply 'cause if you were going to buy anyways, you might as well get paid for it as well You don't own O/G, you rent it. SD

Oil is the most manipulated commodity price on earth; wouldn't read much into the current price level. The big inventory build is per an EIA report, following a two-week reporting silence. Whereas, the intervening API reports showed a cumulative crude build that was well under the EIA number; and is consistent with the reduced demand of the concurrent refinery maintenance season. Most would surmise it's simply market overreaction to EIA modelling quirks. The US wants prices < USD 70 for SPR refill; the ME wants prices in the USD 80-90 range for budget purposes. Most would expect WTI range bound between USD 70-80 with periodic spikes up/down; all nothing new for o/g! Within NA, heavy oil is the temporary exception, Demand continues to rise, and supply essentially remains flat (why Cushing has been draining); the imbalance showing up in smaller differentials. Cushing storage is currently so low, that it will take months of expanded TMP flow to restore normality. Global oil prices aren't going to change much until Iran/Iraq egress is reduced. OPEC+ can extend cuts for another 6 months, but until there are reductions in the sanctioned flow ... don't expect price hikes to stick. Iranian oil flowing out of an Iraqi pipe, looks like it is Iraqi oil ... especially when both flows come from the same reservoir. The US is in a tough place, and will act accordingly. Welcome to higher volatility. SD

It would a lot better if they also published a card deck; a named bounty on each card, and each card/suite ranked. Competition to rank well on the deck, individual incentive to move up by informing on the guy above, and collective incentive to greater fame by raising the bounties on all. Yes, ABC was scum; but his bounty was only 100M, whereas mine is 150M! Then .... just let the market do its thing ... SD

One of the biggest issues around blockchain and AI is the lack of discussion around the ESG and CSR impacts. Just because you could do repetitive tasks cheaper, more efficiently, and with fewer people 'does not mean that you will be allowed to'. Those menial jobs feed millions of people; take them away via the poor use of technology, you get violent civil unrest, and regime change. A great many people on minimum wage can no longer afford the cost of living; they live in trailers/tents, and rely on both public transit to get to work, and food banks. Furthermore, as work is either eliminated, or displaced (WFH); transit volumes sink, ticket prices rise, and the social issues rapidly worsen. Depending where you live, regimes will act differently, but they will/do act. Ant Financial discovered the hard way, that size is not protection. NA has tremendous new technologies in the wings, and is very good at implementing. Tossing sh1te against the wall to see what sticks, is just messy execution of 'agile project management'. It ain't pretty, but it optimises practical solutions very quickly, and the US is very good at it. We have the technology, and failure is not an option. Another roaring 20's is inevitable; but 100 years+ later, don't expect it to rhyme. SD

The reality is that the more 'comfortable' living becomes; the less participants 'apply' themselves in useful every day activity. To significantly change a standard of living, requires a change in mindset; and the more 'comfortable' you are, the less incentive you have to do so. The middle-class will continue to do very well/thrive, but it will look nothing like it does today. Most would expect a great many of today's fat and lazy to drop out, replaced by a new crop of the lean and mean, and a smaller total number. Simply the well-know rags-to-rags in 3 generations; and not a bad thing. Those < 15 have an entirely different mindset, long absent from more recent generations. One of the more striking differences is trades school first to get a ticket, then a gap-year of decisions, then university/profession/post-grad. Greater maturity, confidence in decisions, and more of the applied versus academic. Expectation that the professional will also hold a trades ticket, and never be out of of work for any extended time. Multiple short/medium term careers, of conventional employment, and continuous side hustles (electrician, plumber,welder, etc.). Treat employees poorly, and you bankrupt as your employees walk out the door. Also notable is the much stronger sense of family; they've seen the failures of mom/dad, gran/gramps, and are not about to repeat them. Most would also expect a secular decline in both the wedding and legal trades, as attitudes are very, very different. Then add to it, that this is the generation that will be implementing today's new technologies ...... All good. SD

BTC is around 40% of our cash equivalent by market value, 25% by cost price; most of it bought over Q3, Q4, Q1, Q2 via systematic reinvestment of 25% of realised o/g gains. We subsequently reallocated an additional 25% of our cash equivalent into UBS when CS imploded. The BTC weighting looks different today, simply because the market value of BTC has risen faster than the rest of our cash equivalents; it would he higher still were UBS also not performing. Ideally the rumoured US spot BTC-ETF funds get approved, BTC runs up quite a bit, and we sell/reallocate to treasuries to get BTC back to 15% or so. Add another 10% on a subsequent market wide sell-off, and we're back to a 25% weighting at cost Thereafter, 1/2 the cash equivalent gets liquidated and the funds repatriated and applied against outstanding mortgages. SD

We just flatly refuse industry convention, and think for ourselves. Fiat cash -> Issued and guaranteed by the Central Bank. T-Bill -> Issued and guaranteed by the Central Bank. Cash and T-Bill are cash equivalents, differing ONLY in liquidity/ability to convert into cash without loss. Agrees with industry convention. GSIB (Globally Systemic Important Bank) -> Shares issued by the bank -> solvency guaranteed by all Central Banks that are part of the Basel Accords; systemically the same as the Central Bank guarantee supporting a T-Bill. T-Bill and GSIB are cash equivalents, differing ONLY in liquidity AND inability to convert into cash without loss. The $100 T-Bill could go to $95, the $100 GSIB share could go to 1 cent. Industry convention says it is not a cash equivalent, 'cause industry convention DOES NOT ACCOMMODATE inability to convert into cash without loss. BTC is the hated/direct competition to central bank fiat, differing ONLY in degree of utility. The $100 coin could also go to 1 cent, and industry convention again says it not a cash equivalent, 'cause industry convention DOES NOT ACCOMMODATE inability to convert into cash without loss. Industry convention ALSO says BTC has no value, 'cause there are no quantifiable future benefits to PV. BTC at USD 34,000 says otherwise ... We just recognise the emperor (industry convention) has no clothes, and call the bluff. Always the good anarchist! SD

We hold BTC for cash equivalency diversification, and because we think it will go up over time; volatility is part of the attraction. T-Bills (US Fed Reserve), UBS (GSIB guaranteed by most CB's), and BTC (via an ETF). Keeping 1 of the 3 entirely independent of reserve banking is just pragmatic. Net of inflation; over a 2-yr hold our real return on the T-Bills might be 50bp, 75% on UBS, and 250% on BTC. We hold 'crypto', primarily for experience in its use; no different to choosing to live without a car, yet being familiar with how/where to rent and drive one. The reality is that 'crypto' implements using agile project management, and that most all today's crypto apps will either no longer exist, or look quite different five years out. We have no idea who tomorrows winners/losers might turn out to be. Almost universally, blockchain and smart contracts are recognised as a key technology that will both change the world and drive the next industrial revolution. However, we're still in the very early stages, the technology is still largely a toy of the IT silo, and the business/industry applications are still evolving. Hence, this is where we spend much of our energy. SD

Like anything, the higher up you go the less enjoyable it gets - when everyone is playing patterns and the very technical, you might as well just play a computer; then they meet the disruptive (applied game theory), and the technical/pattern players all have a tough time. After that, match two disruptive's in a fast game; and you have entertainment! Funded quite a few pints back in the day SD

No different to someone in the US investing in the shares of some other company outside of the US (Canadian Oil Sands, Swiss Banks, etc.). Your great return on the year may well be little more than your unit of account (USD) simply devaluing against the foreign currency The USD/CAD trade is attractive 'cause CAD also periodically revalues about once/decade. Today's low cost oil sand investment bought at 73c in the dollar, sold at a much higher price later, and the funds repatriated at 1.03 in the dollar; the FX gain alone - repaying much of your mortgage SD

The reality is that 'Intrinsic Value' has multiple meanings. To the trader it is simply what the vehicle can be bought at today, versus what it could be flogged for tomorrow. That value is entirely in the traders head; at any given time everybody will have a different value, and the value will move with the trader's moods. Your thinking it's worth something, is little more than your feeling happy and the other guy feeling depressed. Any objective value, is simply the PV of some forecast; with the timing and magnitude of future benefits and discount rates in constant flux. Near term gain/loss is little more than the PV of actual vs forecast, from today through to the next significant financial announcement (earnings release, purchase/sale, drill plan/result, etc.). 'Objective', being the same approach that everyone else would use (CFA way, peer review, academic papers, etc). Failure to play the game, a firing offence. All readily exploitable; provided you are comfortable going against the herd. Comes down to whether you've treated 'investment' the same as any other business (you're there to make money), or whether you've treated it as 'entertainment'. Losses as the cost of the ticket to see/experience the show. SD

I hear you! We have a very protective mama bear around her youngsters, who would prefer they live a sheltered life She wasn't impressed upon discovery that her boys had been managing a lock-up of vodka/caviar through the disposal process; had to ensure that we were all far away, when grandma broke the news. SD

I picked the 200 miles just so as to include the road distances for Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Thunder Bay, Guelph, Waterloo, etc. But quite true, most everyone is within 100 miles of the US border as the crow flies. Great work with the First Nations! I did my MBA with some folks from the Kainai (Blackfoot Confederacy), and learnt a lot. For those in the city, many are going to experience a marked decline from an already high standard of living, and poor decisions made during the decline are likely to make it worse; going from richer to poorer, doesn't translate well. Whereas for many First Nations it's more one of going from a bad to a better standard of living, with Truth and Reconciliation Report calls to action further improving the way; translates better. Relativity optics. Good luck with the tools ... you might want to look at Mitac grants as well SD

Just to throw out some observations ... You cannot just save your way to a better life; it will help, but you really need to grow the pile ... and to do that you need to embrace risk. Boarding schools are much maligned, but the youth who go; quickly grow up, learn risk/return, what pays, what they are good at, and how to handle bullying/hazing. Thereafter it's largely oversight, and ensuring that risk/return remains in the legal realm; bummer at times! Much of the illiteracy is because it is taught so badly; TVM almost exclusively focuses on use of the Excel functions, via applications that are primarily number crunching exercises. Re-frame it into how much undergraduate debt you can afford to graduate with, based on the starting pay of the entry-level job you hope to get; and you get very different results! Same use of tools, but now you 'think' as well. Different people, measure by different strokes; and power to them. We have a nephew who studied geography, but kept getting lost as soon as he was in the countryside. His solution, with his portion of some smuggling gains, was to contribute to the purchase/installation of bilingual (Welsh/English) directional signs on a well-known Welsh hiking trail; so that he would never get lost again! SD

70% of Canadians are financially illiterate, and Canada is one of the most financially literate countries in the world, according to both national and international measures. The good news is that Canadian youth < 15 are amongst the top 2 most literate in the world. https://www.canada.ca/en/financial-consumer-agency/programs/research/review-financial-literacy-research.html Financial literacy is influenced by a range of related factors. Ability to make a decision, ability to persist through a problem to find the right solution, ability to plan out financial behaviors and stick to that plan. The research cites four key dimensions. • financial confidence (and its cognitive cousin self-efficacy) • executive functioning (e.g., self-control, working memory, problem solving) • attitudes towards money (e.g., time-orientation) • behavioral habits All Canadians means everyone from Inuit/First Nations people, through to retirees, and the executive suites of Bay Streets towers, from 1-100+ yrs old. Assume maybe 60% financial illiteracy for the vast bulk of Canada’s population living within 200 miles of the US border. So what? Assume 60% financial illiteracy within the sample, 60% financial illiteracy within the subset ‘investing’ (the young through to the old), and that only 1 in 4 have the financial confidence to engage in the more advanced financial investments (options, bond duration, distressed valuation, etc.). Roughly, what % of the population actually knows what it is doing in the investment space? Binomial calculation suggests about 4% [100x(1-.6)x(1-.6)x(1/4)]; and that all the top 2% ‘elite’, use experienced advisers that know what they are doing. COBF is an ‘investment’ board, has 3,000 members (big enough sample), and should be representative of the second level; 4% at the third level suggests that about 120 posters know what they are doing, past and present. Seems about right ….. if you have been on COBF for some time, you could probably even identify them. Please don’t! We see a lot of the four dimensions play out across COBF space, hence it’s an excellent training tool. Furthermore, as compounding does its thing, the COBF literacy rate should also gradually creep up. All good. Takeaways? A lot of people are going to get burned over the next 5 years, some deservedly, some not so much. If you are on this board, you are already in the 16% most financially literate, and learning from the best. You might want to quietly find some of the deserving who could use a little guidance. SD

We own both of these, reduced our weighting, and have redeployed into other WCSB o/g. The service coy's are a seasonal Nov-June trade, and most would expect the focus this season to be primarily on M&A vs new drilling. Nobody wants to pressure daily rates more than they have to; expect drilling plans adjusted to pick up available rigs, but that's about it. The service side should thrive next season. All the consolidators will be 'manufacturing', higher-end rigs will be on-site longer, drilling more and longer length horizontal wells; lower-end rigs will also be boring for water floods. Assuming USD 70-80 WTI, most wells should have payback periods < 1 yr; and it'll be a great time for the rig pigs. For the service side; higher day rates, a lot more days on site, and not many more net new rigs ... as there just aren't the crews. There may be some M&A in the services space, but expect it to be small, and primarily tuck-in acquisitions. It's also Canada; take your time over winter/spring, favour quality over quantity, and use the sales to fill up the pantry. If you have the life stage, and the risk tolerance; favour quantity as there could well be some life-changing opportunities. May we all do well. SD

You get what you pay for. If your intent is to 'trade' you need to be in the $3-10 stocks; and using margin to mitigate against the periodic 'no bid' (why the spread rose). When it goes 'no bid' use the margin to make an all-or-none stink bid; when liquidity returns, bleed the shares off and repay the margin. If your intent is to 'invest', these are the wealth makers with 6-10 yr holds, that are periodically added to; bail, and you're also bailing on a fully paid off house within 10-15 years. Know your game. 4,000 shares at $25, is not the same as 100,000 shares at $1. You buy cheap when you're fairly sure the $1 share is actually a $3 share covered in sh1te; your hope is that the fertiliser, plus years of rain will grow it into a $5+ sparkler, and a 500K mortgage repayment. That $25 share that grew to $28 is only worth 112K, and not going to move the dial. SD

M&A window. There will be a lot of market disruption once both pipes are delivering, toll charges settle, and demand forecasts play out (or not). It will also take time for the new run-rate economics to settle, and the excess egress capacity to emerge. However, you're basically correct - M&A until the majority of the new capacity is spoken for. It's remains money back to the shareholder (minority partners are also shareholders), but its also inventory optimisation. Buy/develop where you have advantage, divest where you do not, and reinvest proceeds in your best prospects. Buybacks used to brute-force valuation comparables to 'norms', and reduce pressure on drilling costs. You might want to look at OBE SD