SharperDingaan

Not a trade, investment strategy. Wherever practical, within North America, CAD denominated assets and USD denominated debt. SD

Over time, FX rates are driven by the combination of fiscal/monetary/trade policy of country A (US) vs country B (Canada). Canada has been able to use Trumps disruption, and intelligently invest in/renew sorely needed infrastructure across the nation. Once built (3-5 yrs out), Canada will be exporting a lot more, the US will be a smaller trade partner, and Canada will be a lot less vulnerable to catching a cold/flu when the US falters. Construction work, and Canadian sourcing during the build, further mitigating US exposure. Rising anti fragility. The US has not been able to use Trumps disruption and intelligently invest. AI as the great saviour has limited scope; it doesn't help with planting and bringing in the crops, flipping burgers at minimum wage (or less), and the sale of US manufactured goods that are now too expensive for foreign buyers, relative to the competition. Tariffs, global disruption, etc also actively working against holding USD reserves ... further worsening US prospects. GBP used to be the reserve currency; it's demise through the 1950's/1960's offers useful takeaways. The 'GoGo' 1960's wasn't just about the pill, freedoms, and fashions ... it was primarily because for owners of the ascending reserve currency (USD), quality companies with long established trading relationships were dirt cheap. The same thing might be said today with Yuan replacing USD. Americans chose Trump to break the frame; the bet being that radical change was better than more of the same (similar to Brexit). Power to the Americans, but the risk is on them, not everyone else; far better to hold one's wealth in some other currency than USD while the US experiments. Not that long ago Canada's official opposition should have won a material majority; as the then prime minister was despised across the land, and anything else was better. Instead, they failed; the sitting prime minister was persuaded to 'take a walk in the snow', replaced with a better candidate, and the opposition exposed as to how bad they actually were. The rest is history. Similar thing in the US today, Trump owes much of his control to how bad his opposition is. While the US works it out, the risk is on them and not everyone else; again, far better to hold one's wealth in some other currency than USD. Net result ??? it is preferable to hold CAD over USD for most of the next decade. SD

+100 SD

'Friends' advise that it was a higher value/volume replacement for the Hawala system. A more anonymous version of L2 Lightning, handling much larger amounts ... and able to settle 'black' transactions without risk of exposure. SD

Cash (T-Bills/Bonds, BTC, etc.) is the same as any other asset. 'Fully Invested' is a minimum portfolio weight of X% or higher; the weight driven by the why. We're higher risk. Risk management dictates a sale and return of original cash as soon as we double, the residual position becoming house money. Thereafter, swing trade around the residual position to increase it at little risk to ourselves. High cash, so that we still live if/when we screw up. We're concentrated. Quantity often requiring that we have to make a market, know the company, and be willing to sit on the unpopular position for years. Ability to execute on life changing positions of dog sh1te, on a dime, requires experience, expertise, and high cash. We're intentionally harder to kill than most. BTC in case we ever have to run, and the patience/expertise/experience to use it wherever we land. Interim systematic use to protect from inflation and grow the pile, requires high cash. One of the best uses of cash is to protect against the loss of 'funny money' gains (Mag-7, O/G, etc.); today you're a lucky hero, but tomorrow you're a bum unless you kept it; reinvest a small % of the cash raised in long puts for more 'funny money' on the way down. Nothing to do with opportunity cost. One of the other best uses of cash is market making. XYZ coy's distressed 7% bond at 33c, that literally nobody wants as it is expected to be rolled into a debt/equity swap within 18 months. Institutions need to sell, and you step up for 300K of principal in one trade ; thereafter sell the debt for equity 5 years out, and take home a 40-60% CAGR. With no need or intent to sell early ... no opportunity cost. SD

Hard for an American to see, particularly when you have benefited from it for most/all of your life ..... but the USD is loosing its reserve currency status. These things are 'managed', with Yuan a more recent example; now also a petro recycling currency, with completely separate competing banking/settlement, digital currency, etc, etc. Sanctions on anybody are unenforceable unless they agree to it. Live in North America; some of your assets will be in either USD/CAD/PESO (house, chequing/savings accounts, etc.); you can do things to mitigate the exposure, but whether you are an individual or an company - one of them will be your accounting 'currency of record'. The longer you look out, the more reasonable it seems that the USD trades at a discount to CAD at some point; 40%+ F/X gain should it occurr. There are other reasons as well, but Lotsofcoke can speak to them. SD

O/G, BTC, drug dealers Wherever we can ... minimum USD exposure and long straddles on Orange Boy. May the gods protect his Twitter fingers! ..... and the next guy/gal not miss!! SD

Yet still just yapping and not actually leaving SD

It isn't going well. Orange Boy cannot get out; if he could, he would have already done so. Now it's panic time, hence the anger. SD

Higher O&G exports at higher prices, brings in a lot of cash that Canada could use. Cash going into all kinds of new infrastructure, export diversification/integration, and job creation as those things get built. All with as little US input as possible . Lot of pain, but Orange Boy has been great for us! as we have found a way to make the disruption useful. Whereas for the US ... hard to say the same . SD

Just in case you weren't sure the US Treasury wasn't heavily manipulating WTI ....... All these premiums in addition to the higher transit costs (distance + tanker rates), and the lower throughput yields from feedstock they really weren't designed to process. "Refiners in Asia are paying huge premiums for crude that could replace some of the supply stuck in the Middle East, with the most suitable grades from Norway and the U.S. being bid at record-high double-digit premiums over Dated Brent." https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Asian-Refiners-Pay-Record-Premiums-for-Non-Middle-East-Crude.html And that SOH opening thing .... All those marines and planes/choppers flying cover and attacking drones .... while your fully loaded US insured tanker/cargo (bomb) is trying to cross without going off ??? Sure .... planning to swap out American crews for the crossing as well ?? Or ... just pay the protection fee ... and switch on the transponder for safe passage. The spiral is accelerating. SD

Great Financial Crisis. Nobody wanted to hear it, cause if it went down ... there would be far more immediate things to think about. This is no different. SD

Inplay Oil (IPO.TO). Very small float, a 5,000 share purchase will move the market unless it is a limit order. For bigger blocks you will need to use a bought deal. Good luck! SD

Look at IPO, and do your DD quickly. SD

Come enjoy the dark side! It's a lot more fun; the angels can wait for some other day SD

We're all friends with Iran now! Iranian sanctions about to be lifted http://xcancel.com/DropSiteNews/status/2034627104726196694#m Of course this assumes that the owners of those cargo's in the Russian and Iranian tankers, are willing to sell ... and not simply keep them for themselves. A squeeze is a terrible thing to waste SD

Shush .... all that confusion adds to the gains SD

It would seem that Orange Boy cannot control his Israeli partner; the US supplies the weapons, air-to-air tankers, targeting, etc, etc .... yet the US knows nothing about the strike on the Iranian gas fields, until afterwards ???? Sure .... new US Sec Defense, maybe by the end of next week! The Iranian one missile hit on Yabu was a demonstration; they can disrupt it. The E-W pipeline itself is not defensible, and it is a simple matter to mine the Bab al-Mandab strait ahead of a tankers passage. Even the US treasury will not be able to keep WTI spot < USD 100/bbl . The Jones Act was suspended 'cause it's primarily only the shadow fleet tankers that are available; most everything else is tied up in the Gulf. Can't load US crude from a US facility (land/sea) for Dubai/Europe to arbitrage the price difference, on a sanctioned ship Gulf States were OK with some collateral damage, but clearly - not the destruction of major facilities and the extended shut-in of exports; this is what they pay protection money for. Typically, when protection isn't doing its job ..... lessons are enforced (temporary pull/freeze of funds), and alternatives sought. Funds flow out of the US . It's spiralling, the SOH remains closed to allied Gulf States, and the Red Sea would appear to be next. We live in interesting times. SD

The trade isn't the crude spike, it's the futures curve moving up and out for 12-18 months . Good already, a lot better 3 months from now , but spectacular if BTC also falls down a well . A month from now, 'security of supply' will be top of mind. Rotation into the WCSB. SD

1B in debt; 1B and $1 in assets; $1 in net worth .... in Trump coin . Old man, out of his depth, looking for someone to dump this on. SD

Hey bud .. we made the fertiliser available to you, we helped on the crude thing by upping output of heavy crude; but the price thing .... that was all on you . SD

US farmers being made to pay a lot more for fertiliser ... as well as tariffs on the now inflated prices The other input is migrant labour to tend/pick/package the crops .... now ICED (deported)! It doesn't end well. SD

Always refreshing to have some facts ... vs US spin Since March 1, the day after the U.S. and Israel started bombing Iran and killed the Ayatollah, Iran’s crude oil exports have averaged around 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd), according to data from Kpler cited by Bloomberg. That’s not a major slump compared to about 1.5 million bpd in exports from the Strait of Hormuz before the war. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Tehrans-Oil-Exports-Remain-Resilient-as-Iranian-Crude-Passes-Hormuz.html 142% more (1.7M b/d) should Iran choose to allow the UAE to keep the Fujairah facility open ... A lot quicker, and more reliable that Orange Boy begging for armed ship escorts; and being told to f*** o** Fujairah exported more than 1.7 million barrels per day of crude oil and refined fuels on average last year, according to Kpler data, a volume equal to about 1.7 per cent of daily world demand. The port is located on the Gulf of Oman, approximately 70 nautical miles from the Strait of Hormuz, which is effectively closed due to the Iran war, increasing the importance of Fujairah’s flows to the global market during the current conflict. https://www.malaymail.com/news/money/2026/03/18/drone-strikes-expose-reliance-on-uaes-fujairah-port-as-a-critical-middle-east-oil-bypass/213052 WTI futures now > USD 72/bbl all the way out through July 2027. Gotta love the US treasury manipulation . Physical spot Dubai Crude now at USD 127.86/bbl vs the Cushing USD 98.73/bbl SD

Allies do that by NOT aiding with the Iran war, negotiating passage through the SOH, and pricing cargo's in Yuan vs USD. Sovereign funds continue to reduce US bond holdings in favour of Yuan, and continue to move physical bullion out of the US via derivative settlements. USD exposure replaced via options should Orange Boy suddenly change his mind (or experience demise) .... so as not waste the opportunity Gas prices rise in the US, the Iran war drags on, cheap labour dries up, tariffs collapse, etc ... Orange Boy looses the midterms. All those deportees ... who now plants/picks the crops? works the under-the-table jobs?. Many just a paycheck away from a financial collapse; all those coming cc/mortgage defaults, bankruptcy's and higher food import prices .... just in time for midterms. SD

Highly recommend a look through the 'Alex' cartoon strips as it's reminiscent of what we see today .... 'Alex Masterly' inspired thousands aspiring to the City for generations, and the strips were required reading. Xmas 2023 advising SantaCorp, Xmas 2019 advising on Brexit, and the early 2000's selling souls for the devil's bank are favourites https://www.theoldie.co.uk/blog/farewell-alex-the-cartoon-rogue-of-the-city-by-robert-bathurst Far too honest for today's crowd SD