SharperDingaan

The 'war is over' euphoria comes down to this .... "I think the war is very complete, pretty much," the president said, speaking from his Doral, Florida, golf club. "[Iran has] no navy, no communications, they've got no air force. Their missiles are down to a scatter. Their drones are being blown up all over the place, including their manufacturing of drones." "If you look, they have nothing left. There's nothing left in a military sense," Mr. Trump said. "I have no message for him. None, whatsoever," the president said, adding that he has someone else in mind to lead the country. "We're very far ahead of schedule," he told CBS News on Monday. The same afternoon the president said the war is "very complete, pretty much," the Department of Defence posted on X, "We have Only Just Begun to Fight" and "no mercy." So far, seven Americans have died in combat. Later Monday, Vice President JD Vance will attend a dignified transfer of the remains of U.S. Army Sgt. Benjamin Pennington, who died of injuries he suffered in March 1 attack at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia. Asked whether he thought the war could wrap up soon, the president said, "Wrapping up is all in my mind, nobody else's." https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/trump-says-the-war-is-very-complete/ar-AA1XQWQu?ocid=winp2fptaskbarhover&cvid=69af29f3cfaa4f1690f9a9534b1b5f55&ei=14 In other words; Orange Boy can't enforce regime change, can't keep the SOH open, can't get the SPR release he wanted, can't put a lid on rising gas prices, can't get cooperation without giving up tariffs, and can't get the replacement weaponry to extend the war . Orange Boy badly needs an 'off' ramp .... so float the idea that in his mind he can't win from here, war's over ! ... everyone can now come home PR and press scrums ain't going to do it ...... this is the land of an 'eye for an eye'. Tar pits strangle their victims via exhaustion and suffocation - no exceptions. SD

Their reserve release will go to their own refiners ... everybody else, out of luck SD

Pretty sure this wasn't in the plan ..... remove your tariffs, and maybe we will reconsider ?? The Group of Seven major industrialised powers have decided against using strategic reserves for now to counter the impact on oil prices from the Iran war. “We’re not there yet,” French Finance Minister Roland Lescure said after chairing a meeting of his G7 counterparts. “We are ready to take necessary and coordinated steps in order to stabilize markets, such as strategic stockpiling,” Lescure told reporters in Brussels. https://apnews.com/live/iran-war-israel-trump-khamenei-03-09-2026#0000019c-d31c-d9cb-ab9d-f71f198a0000 SD

At times of war .... there are no fundamentals; simply 'cause nobody has any confidence in how it ends up 'X' months from now. There is only volatility; your choice to make it either friend or foe. SD

The reality is that Kharg Island is no different to the former Nordstrom 2 pipeline. The only way to reliably stop via flow (incentivised via bribes), is to destroy it. So long as the US/Israel continue to only bomb .... the oil continues to flow, and crude prices are mitigated. As the regime cannot realistically defend it; as soon as troops touch the ground it's torched, and crude prices rocket upwards. SD

You might want to keep in mind that SPR releases will be via oil-swaps and futures delivery. Today's China SPR sold to a Gulf State at today's price, in return for a higher volume futures delivery at price Y some months from now. Iranian crude included ...... with settlements processed via the Chinese banking system. Lots of crude ... far away from US/Israeli attack. That same system that is processing for Russia ... as sanctions relief does not include insurance/settlement processing though the western rails. Squeeeze ... the Orange SD

Q4 reporting this week should be illuminating SD

It would seem that the US has panicked, and that the SOH will remain closed for much of this week. Pre release 'discussion', the Dow was trending towards an opening down 1100 points .... now it's down only 600. .. but on words only. Feeling lucky ?? The US doesn't have the heavy oil required, and those SPR releases will go to the home countries first. Unless sanctioned heavy is now allowed in quantity (Russian & Iranian), this isn't going to work. It's also a very simple matter to change ownership of both ship and cargo .... and suddenly there is no Iranian oil .... it's comes from somewhere else Stress the heavy and the cost of downstream refined product goes up .... USD 5/gallon gasoline. Great time for Canadian heavy SD

It comes down to how high spot goes, how much a producer chooses to hedge, and what they intend to do with that hedged cashflow. This evening WTI is USD 107, and Brent is USD 109. Hard to see a practical reopening of the SOH this week, and spot WTI NOT moving up to USD 120/bbl+ as the lack of egress shuts more producers in. If so, the entire futures curve moves up USD 30/bbl+, and out further. Of course it will not last …. so the gamechanger is how much production a producer hedges, when, and why . A hedge at USD 125/bbl, when budget is USD 75/bbl, is extremely attractive. A gross USD 50 spread on 1,000 bbl/day for 30 days is an extra USD 1.5M/month (CAD 2.1M). Were a CJ able to do this on the 6,500 bbl/day of Reford 1 production for six months … they would gross another USD 58.5M (CAD 82M) [1.5 x 6.5 x 6] ... or a very material portion of the cost of Reford 2. Clearly, the when and why matters. The big beneficiary is M&A, as the wise acquirer has strong incentive to immediately hedge up to 50% of the targets production. Higher prices for assets translating into higher valuations across the sector, and incentivising earlier rotation into o/g. There is a reason why all have a close eye on a Waterous, etc. 18 months out … fewer and more profitable players within the WCSB, and higher dividends. Until then, look to trading gains. SD

Current speculation is Brent at USD 110-120/bbl, as Iranian oil infrastructure is now also being hit. Record call volumes, evidence that capital has begun to roll into oil (price expected to remain higher for a while), and out of both tech and the broader market indices. As soon as call availability tightens, capital will move into options on the oil names themselves . To lower the spot crude price; spot/forward-rate parity requires a sale of ATM spot (higher call volume) and a purchase of longer term forwards. The record volumes are 'cause the US has been trying to game the market down . The rotation is draining liquidity out of the broader indices and crypto markets, so expect price drops. The USD 115 B of tariff refunds will go primarily to US importers; but not until another 30 days+ yet. Opportunity. Disruption is now spiralling and spreading. Absent a material change, USD 5/gallon gasoline in most US states is maybe two weeks away. SD

Pretty sure WTI goes > USD 100/bbl on Monday ..... "Kuwait said it is cutting oil production due to “Iranian threats against safe passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz.” Kuwait is the fifth-largest oil producer in OPEC. It produced approximately 2.6 million barrels per day in January." https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/07/kuwait-oil-cut-iran-war-strait-hormuz.html SD

Another tanker hit in the SOH today, after another one yesterday; this one waiting for an escort that failed to turn up. Way to go ... reliable reinsurance! https://english.mathrubhumi.com/news/world/iran-irgc-drone-strike-marshall-islands-flagged-tanker-strait-of-hormuz-fp7xzr4f SD

I understand that the new multi-billion insurance/armed escort scheme, for shipping to transit both the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea/Suez Canal .... was not well received . By some reports .... the US was out-of-touch and clueless; by others ... it was an attack on the private insurance market, that just will not be tolerated. It ain't WW II bud, and 75+ years later .... not the same ball game. Good possibility that shipping remains blocked next week, alongside most of the Gulf producers declaring force majeure and shutting in. Crude prices going higher, indexes going lower, gas in most US states at USD 4/gallon ... and tipping into USD 5/gallon 2-3 weeks out . Hard to see how Orange Boy hasn't cooked the goose this time. It is straightforward to distract with a new outrage when the linkages are abstract, and the outrages aren't immediately affecting the pocket book .... but a different thing entirely when the adverse change is directly reinforced, every time there is a fill up at the pump. Ship baby, ship! . A trapped short is a beautiful thing .... a trapped orange, even better . The body bags that follow, if/when there are boots on the ground, will be harder still to 'distract' from. SD

12M/day is an extra USD 360M (CAD 500M) per month; buys back a lot of stock. SD

Keep in mind that BTC is also a higher volume alternative to the ME Hawala system; the Iran/Gulf war demand is elevating demand at present, and miners are using it to exit. We're currently at roughly the MSTR break-even .... but most would expect that as/when that ME liquidity abates, and the tide goes out .... price will come down quite a bit Most would also expect a bottom, shortly before the US Fed is forced into issuing a BTC backed debt instrument. The lower BTC goes, the easier it will be to deliver the required marketing 'bump' alongside implementation; the broader indexes are selling down, liquidity is draining, margin calls cannot be that far away. A 60K floor is reasonable; we just expect to rise up to it, following an 'event'. For us ... re-entry will be primarily about keeping the funny money gains from o/g, versus whether BTC rises tomorrow. We just need a liquid parking spot, not in a broader market index, that is likely to hold its value for a time ... any subsequent rise is just bonus. Good luck SD

The TSX-300 closed friday last week at 34,339, it's currently at 33,199, down 1,140 points (3.32%) week to date ... way to go Orange Boy . Similar thing on the DJ Index. There are only five ways by which to mitigate the current oil price run-up. 1) Reduce/remove sanctions on Russian/Iranian/Iraqi/VZ crude ... so that a China/India etc don't have to buy unsanctioned supply; 2) Flood the market with crude from SPR's/non-ME suppliers ... to raise supply; 3) Game the market via paper barrels and the spot/forward markets; 4) Keep the ME pumping, refining, and liquification going .... to keep supply lines full; 5) Keep both the desert pipelines and the SOH open, and tanker transit profitable. Low cost insurance and military escort through both the SOH and related collection zones ain't going to cut it. At best, boots on the ground seizure and control of Kharg Island, and removal of sanctions on Iranian crude might ... but oil prices will spike a lot higher until implementation is actually delivering (inventories loading, and new supply continuing to flow in). Show me, don't tell me . No help from friends; until tariffs are removed/reduced, and tariff reimbursement implemented. We still love you, but threats and bullying goes both ways. SD

Illuminating test ..... When you are a commodity company, and the price of the only commodity you sell rises, so should your share price. Particularly if you sell primarily one product (WTI/related pegged blends), the price rise is extreme, and the review period is short (< one week) WTI (02/27 close) was USD 67.02. Current WTI price is USD 85.78 WTI Ratio = current price/02-27 close = 85.78/67.02 = 1.28x WTI Ratio x share price (02/27 close) = Expected share price today Expected share price today - share price (03/05 close) = Price delta ((Price delta/Expected share price today)-1)x 100 = Price delta (%) Price delta (%) is around -18% for many WCSB companies (1.00-Price delta (%)) x current WTI price = assumed WTI price. Compare assumed WTI price to the USD 67.02 close last week. Current WTI prices are not being priced in Help yourself boys and girls .... there is almost no WTI price risk in the share prices . While in the real world, that WTI production is selling for materially more, and the forward market is suddenly deep and wide open Gotta love pillage SD

Friday last week (Feb-17), WTI closed at USD 67.02/bbl. Thursday this week (Mar-05), at about 15:20 EST, WTI is USD 81.65/bbl ... and may well be higher by end of day tomorrow. 21% higher, week to date . 4 of the 52 US states already have gas >$4/gallon, only 16 are < $3/gallon. Doesn't look good for next week. https://www.gasbuddy.com/usa Lot of Canadian producers are wildly profitable at WTI > USD 80/bbl, and many will be using the opportunity to hedge drilling/acquisition budgets. What one can't drill, one buys, and the WCSB is still very cheap . CVE needs to pay down its MEG debt, it's raining money, and there will be little problem moving properties for sale. And Orange Boy has cut lots of points off the indexes this week, making everything cheaper than it should be. What's not to love SD

See the energy thread .... All those bunnies adding all that 'funny money' to the stack ... and all certain, that oil cannot possibly also go down . May cheap options be widely available, and the pillage awesome! SD

Nah .... it's more like the gas is $4/gallon, I can't afford to drive ... DO SOMETHING! Gimme cheap gas, don't give a sh1te about inflation !!! SD

One of the drivers in our beer business is drink less, drink better ... or smaller portions, of better food. Deadly to the CPG business as it destroys the high volume model, touting 'value' as the quantity of food on your plate for the price paid. Great for us though! Same opportunity around airlines ... SD

Ya all might want to keep in mind that Friday prayers are coming up, and the US has just assassinated a whole lot of the Iranian clergy. The Iranian war is spreading, this is clearly not how it was supposed to go, and one would expect that comes tomorrow .... Americans, everywhere in the world, will be the adverse subject of a radicalised fatwa. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fatwa Oil is up 'cause Iran is no longer constraining tanker strikes to the SOH. If crude prices are to be contained, American tanker insurance and escorts now has to extend to everything in the Gulf, Arabian and Caspian seas; further still as/when radicalised Islamist start killing Americans in both Asia and the US. Still think that oil prices go lower ???, or that this is going to be over quickly ??? The US doesn't have the ships, and needs friends. Sure bud ... after you deposit the 110B+ in illegal tariff collection at the IMF (or elsewhere), and remove/reduce the remaining tariff levels .... bullying is such a bitch; we need the money to pay the higher fuel bills that you are creating . With the US both borrowing and printing USD ... how do you think the bulk of that 110B actually gets repaid ??? Still want to hold USD paper ??? But worse still ... what if Orange Boy also looses the midterms . It's spiralling. SD

Back in the day, I learnt some of the finer points from a pair of elderly Iranian brothers, very good at making ships and cargoes, both appear and disappear ... most anywhere in the world Sadly they had way more flexibility in their time.... but much of it today is the same old, in new wrappers. They were both wicked chess players, masters at sleight of hand on the board, and great fun to play against (widespread cheating on both sides!). Friends of a grandfather, and something of an apprenticeship in the dark arts; my kind of scum Typically family businesses .... invitation only. SD

Tankers will ultimately move through the SOH, but it's in no ones interest to make it easy, or cheap. That Iranian crude is currently sanctioned, and going to Russia/China at deeply discounted prices .... keep it blockaded, and crude goes up as both Russia/China are forced into the unsanctioned market . Lift the blockade, pay the 3-5% 'tax' per cargo, Kharg Island continues to flow, crude prices largely remain as they are, Russia/China pay world price, and Iran's revenue shoots up But .... how does a very vain man ... publicly lift sanctions on a nation that the US is currently at war with ? pay the smugglers to not go scorched earth, and improve the oppositions ability to fight . Welcome to Iran! SD .

The article neglects to mention .... it's also a US blockade on sanctioned Iranian exports, and only on certain cargo's. As long as its a ship registered to friendly parties, or a cargo owned by friendly parties, you're golden Maybe those Chinese cargo's are allowed through for the right 'fee' ? .... or maybe not. Maybe that temporarily US owned cargo on an Iranian ship ... for the right fee? If you want production from Kharg Island ..... ships routinely sink in awkward places, and Iranian oil smugglers are amongst the best in the world SD