Jaygo

have you read the wager by Grann? Also about shipwreck. i love audio books but this on has some maps and pictures that are nice to reference.

Heading to the Florida keys with the family. Any ideas for 6-9 and 30 year olds.?

Ill throw my hat in the ring, if anything just to get to look back and think how naive i was in my 30's I am going to go with Aritzia I would anticipate that they would add roughly 4-5 stores in the US per year bringing them level with the number of Canadian locations. I think 5 years time will also bring us a few international stores most likely in the UK and Australia but Korea or Japan would not surprise me either. So lets say a total of 142 stores. Today you pay just shy of 25 million CAD a location. 2.8 Billion in cap vs 114 stores. (lulu goes at 95 million USD a store fyi) on that basis with some store valuation increases and 25% more stores I could see a double easily from here. I think we will have decent growth in stores, decent growth in SSS and decent growth online. my wild ass guess would put 2029 sales at 4 billion CAD and i think we will have a higher valuation so I could see a double through this point of view as well. My expectation is we get a change of heart about Aritzia, not the 60pe stupidity of 2021 but the businesslike understanding of a modest grower that is very profitable. The stores are generally built from cashflow as has been the several hundred million dollar distribution centre in the Toronto area so it kind of always looks like they are not making money. Management say the average store recoups its cost in under 18 months and some far better so I do like those economics. Lets say for fun they get to 400 million in earnings, a little boost from going international, get some more adults in the room and maybe a better CFO I dont think an 18 pe is too much to ask and a 7.2 billion CAD valuation. Call it a 20% a year cagr. just like a nude you cant scrub from the web, here's my retail stock pick for perpetuity.

It was dealraker with the inspirational account of his accounts.

Hey finally some else who likes terravest!

I am in no way giving advice, it was a curiosity about the setup and logic. Prem and Warren have done well but as warren showed with his bet with the hedge funds that most do not beat the market. Another way of looking at it is if an insurance company with cheap float provides a leveraged investment return than even a market average will beat the market in a way.

When you say corporate account, are you referring to a Canadian corporate hold co? if so are the taxes not basically the same as personal these days? Not to get off topic but I’m eager to implement some housekeeping with my books and have been looking at investing through my operating business and taking lower personal salary.

It’s part of my kennel portfolio. Gladly bought right around 90 at the end of September. I’ve followed it for a long time though so I recognized it instantly. I’m not sure about the lawsuits but the patented products are in everything.

3m?

Financial wealth is derived from owning assets, true wealth comes from having enough financial wealth to live the life that gives you purpose. Dealraker this is some inspirational stuff. Thank you.

I’m in a similar boat. I work in the construction industry and have architectural experience from my early days. SSD is miles ahead of mitek imo. Not in connectors but all the places ssd is going in infrastructure is really amazing. that said I sold my cost basis last week after 7 years. It’s simply too expensive vs the other adjacent dive looked at recently.

A question is why do these companies not just index. if the business of insurance is good why have a side business of investing. There are some funds that do 20% a year. Why not leave it to those guys or the index and focus on your business of insurance? we all have dogs but when I look at ffh it’s seems like some real mutts. Blackberry, recipe corp with the crappiest restaurants, shipping companies, I’m not a billionaire nor so successful people know me on the streets, so instead of criticizing I’m just really curious about it. I actually think brk is the same and really hope Greg starts to unwind the investments portfolio so it makes up a much smaller part of the business. Using the proceeds to shrink the equity at these very reasonable prices compared to the greater market.

I'm looking at some beaten down real estate Artis REIT and Morguard north American real estate trust in particular. These babies are left for dead so do as the vulture does. I think Aritzia will shoot the lights out this holiday season and get back into the $40's ( 700 million CAD Christmas quarter is my high estimate ) or 13x earnings for a stable grower. A basket of home construction stuff. JELD-WEN, Builders First Source, Doman Building supply in Canada, and for the risk averse there is Richelieu If rates remain above inflation for much longer all the above will probably get kicked in the ass. I Kind of like the looks of Mako mining too but a microcap gold mine in Central America is just too speculative to sully the good Jaygo name on.

The growth in money supply should track the actual output of the economy. So population growth plus productivity growth. If we create too much money like during covid you are going to cause all sorts of disruptions in pricing as that money finds a home. Some get rich off of it while some suffer higher prices on what they buy without the increase in assets. I now have roughly 2 million in assets and 500k in long term dept, And I spend about 100k per year so my net assets probably increased by 40% to get me to the 2million, my depts are reduced in actual value by 40% devaluation of currency and my expenses only increased by 40k per year and will soon be absorbed by increases in income. I am neutral to positive in actual net worth, someone without assets took it on the chin and all those numbers on the things they want are bigger. The real winners of this bullshit are the highly levered asset owners just like always! The money supply increased by 40% and by in large prices of things like land, gold, perishables, profitable companies ect have gone up in price by roughly 40%. It takes time but that is what should happen. This is not inflation based on supply and demand or demographics. An example of real inflation is what we have in Single family homes where the supply is being constrained so the price goes up if you want to have that item is real inflation and not currency devaluation. I think Red Lion sees this and is leaning into SFH's since you have the tailwinds of supply and demand as well as the currency devaluation of dept to boost the potential returns.

Artis reit. Ax.un in Toronto

Sold my cost basis in federal signal. A direct beneficiary of infrastructure and reshoring but 35x pe is a little much. The majority of the industrial segment is crazy expensive right now. I love the sector since I can understand it better than others but graco at 30x federal signal at 35x Tennant at 28x, Ingersoll rand at 42x and all the materials at 30-40x just seems nuts. Its funny when you have Linemar the maker of skyjack sitting there at like 9x and Oshkosh at 13x

According to a podcast recently it was Ted who bailed out home capital group. Small compared the gfc but still relevant.

sold my cost basis in SSD. Love the company and will keep the house money invested but id like to put the proceeds into adjacent companies that have better value.

not if everyone is doing it.

Inflation was not caused by a hot economy it was caused my money printing and policies restricting production. (Government policies and not animal spirits) Rates were brought in to help cool inflation but rather than fix the issue of production it likely slowed down those repairs as well as took some purchasing power away from consumers. if they drop rates I think we can say goodby to the recession and we will get back to the Decent but not crazy economy of 2019. this will really help China and Germany too by putting the consumer back in charge. Toss in a bit of near-shoring and we may just get those earnings growth numbers. The entire world is in recession bar the USA and a few other outliers. It’s all rates of the big dog

Yes simple is often better. But there are also traps that look simple but can be far more complex. maybe an easy example would be the growth of e-commerce vs the share price of container-board/ cardboard box companies. How have these not been a home run? West rock is one of the big ones and the share price is flat to down for 10 years. oil and war in the Mideast is another one that is just confusing.

Yes the action on ssnt is crazy. As my quick calculation came to buying at todays price and discounting the existing business and the dividend marks the newco at around 12biillion dollars. Kind of steep for a platform without a single acquisition. folks do love a story though. I bought purely to keep tabs so I don’t forget to dig deeper down the road once it’s up and running. as I mentioned above. 40% in five days would be great if I had bought any quantity.

Up 23% so far. Thankfully it was just a tracker so I wont get an ego. Nor much more than a champagne lunch for one. Anyway Brad Jacobs will be using this as a platform for his building products dist acquisitions. After reading the filings the owners of SSNT will only be getting 15 basis points of the new co and a 2.5 million dollar or 5% one time dividend. So the jump up in shares seems just news driven and will not be overly beneficial. The value of brad Jacobs entity to current shareholders is roughly 10 million or 20% of current cap. Is there a thread on Building products distribution? may be time to start one since Site, ferg, Building products group, richelieu have all done very very well and now we have one of the best acquisitors coming into the space.

I have never really had any sort of life changing gains. The highest percentage wise is Shopify by a large margin. Bought 20 shares pre split at around 105 and selling at roughly 1700 a few years later. Nice little boost to the tfsa but cant quit my day job. Most money earned is BRK with about 60,000 usd in gains so far. Thanks warren I think my excessive diversification is going to keep me from that until i learn options.

Bravo Rosie. Except on economist productivity readings. Canada's economy will never have the productivity rates of the USA and comparing the two is stupid. Canadian people as in individuals are most likely equally or even more productive simply because we are less obese (sorry) But for our economy as a whole the numbers will show less productivity. It is nearly impossible for the whole place to freeze over and remain in static productivity vs our friends to the south where half their landmass remains relatively unscathed by cold. On the rest of his ramblings id have to agree, the economy is hurting because interest payments and the prospective of higher payments is taking a lot of juice out of consumers. Lets not forget that the long depression of 1873 ( railroads, excessive immigration and real estate) and great depression (stocks and real estate) were caused by a debt fuelled asset booms and subsequent government intervention causing bust. Ouch Id wager that our dollar will crater to the lowest valuation ever in the next couple of years and canada will be the best place for Americans to invest without a doubt for the second half of the 20's, it probably already is but there will be bumps a plenty. If i was an American I would be studying the top 20 or 30 names to be prepared for a bargain basket. ill toss some names for those interested. There are lots of high quality midcap names that are very dynamic. The Kitchener, Cambridge, Waterloo area of the GTA and Ottawa to Montreal corridor is nurturing some incredible small companies especially in the smart industrial space and tech. The bond proxies like banks, utes and telcos are all very good as well due to the oligopolies that exist but since the dividends make up a lot of the total return and is not tax efficient for Americans they are probably less favorable. Equitable bank BRP Richelieu GFL Opentext, CGI, CSU Linemar, magna, ATS Smartcentres, Granite Reit, MEQ, MRG Thomson Reuters BN and colliers Terravest, Exchange income corp, transforce, Gildan Activewear Wajax and toromont There are many others but these are all pretty reliable and could be spectacular if we have a stock slump combined with currency appreciation.