Jaygo

Well my hope is it gets caught up in the wave of Nuclear fomo and gets bid up outside of fundamentals thus delivering a really great return. Actual fundamentals gets me a slightly better valuation than the attempted acquisition a few years out. Say in the range of 14-17 a share. When the company was involved in getting acquired last time there was a lot of interest.

Velan VLN.to Nuclear renaissance play combined with Cryo for LNG. I think we are in a industrial recession similar to 2015 era but nobody is getting dinged yet. Graco showed that today with poor results. I think Velan will push right through due to the nuclear and LNG projects then get acquired by an industrial trying to boost the sales slump. I am aware I have a major bias here, I have a very soft spot in my heart for small industrials for some reason so I could be totally out of whack here.

VVV - Valvoline has been putting up some pretty impressive numbers. Good revenue growth and about 18% buyback over the past 4 years. Also just to highlight Artis REIT again from a while back. I know office is dead and all but Samir Manji has been very consistant in buying in commons and preffered. In 2024 they have spent 48 million CAD on a 600 million market cap For commons they started the year at 112m shares out and now at 103.5 m shares out.

He's 94 years old. I think it is unlikely. Maybe a quick glance at the numbers on paper but not a real assermentent.

Its not the size of the business it is the nature of it. A conglomerate who has a hundred of businesses are complex and tend to have issues surrounding management. Do you think anyone at HQ is looking at ACME Brink to ensure its being run in the best way possible. Even Benjamin Moore, a company who has an incredible amount of consumer good will has been trounced by is competitors. Go into a store and ask the dealer ( label changes and product name changes for no reason, paint shortages long after competitors corrected their shortages, Insufficient marketing budgets etc, not keeping up with the trends and influencers, Joanna Gains reps Masco paint ) BRK could buy a whole host of companies and the earnings at the parent would grow but the earnings at the acquired may not. I dont see a maximum size in business. I see a maximum attention span in business and I believe that BRK is above that threshold right now. Managers must be managed and the bigger the wider the assortment of businesses the tougher this becomes. Maybe Greg turns out to be the saviour who recognises the issues and brings everybody back into shape and earnings from ACME to XTRA start to improve. Only time will tell thus my comment on waiting for clue before making a decision. I still believe that the makeup of the company is excellent.

They very well could. I just feel that the size of the conglomerate has likely become an obstacle. Yes there is an incredible amount of money coming in so they have many options but is another totally different business being added to the fold going to be easy to manage. I highlighted the above companies because I feel they fit the culture of BRK. All the above have had pretty big downswings in the past few years and they didn't buy into them or buy them outright. This tells me they may be stretched as is.

Its a tough decision and cant be made simply because WB is gone. You have to watch the business and see how it evolves. Dont forget JP Morgan died 10 years before Jamie Dimon was even born and many would be happy owners of JPM stock today. Everything changes, you just have to pay attention and sell when you feel the business is well ahead of itself or disintegrating ala General Electric. Apple too has added the majority of its value since Jobs Died. Ya just never know.

I wouldn't really want the dividend either. The reason I would sell is strictly due to valuation and the opportunities I see elsewhere. Greg is already in charge and is likely pushing the subs harder than WB. The business idea of float, investments and constant reinvestment is still in place, they are just struggling to find places for reinvestment. It likely a low single digits above inflation return from here with changes. Not bad but not great. They could have bought MMM but were likely scared of lawsuits, they could buy FAST, GGG, SHW, TORO even SBUX and a whole bunch of great businesses that they understand but they dont. I think the system is hitting its limits on size so an exceptional buyback, return of capital or dividend is needed.

Bingo I think this is a really big headwind for the company. Working for or selling out to Warren Buffett of 20 years ago was something to be proud of, something to aspire to. Working for Greg Able is awesome but it does not have the same cache. So even an exceptional company or an all star manager is going to get lost in the weeds of BRK. I think the money as a motivator is really short sighted. Money is great but once you get wealthy are you really going to dedicate your life to something when you know your never going to get any recognition for it? My guess is that's unlikely in most people. Warren has always espoused mid western values, and maybe with midwestern values business fame and recognition are less important to those folks. Better start shopping in Minnesota baby.

Thanks. FRFHF doesn't seem to trade much at least on my garbage RBC brokerage account. It will show the same price all day then adjusts the following day.

Do any Canadians hold FFH in USD. Sounds silly but I have lots of Canadian ideas right now but few US so i have a lot more USD cash laying around.

Thank you

could Fairfax handle 1 billion in losses in Florida this year? I only ask since helene, milton and a possible SE florida cane 10 days out seems like a lot of losses in a short span, especially since we have just bough ZZZ and bauer.

I just dont see how making the company larger is going to help at all. I'm not saying that something is broken but if i put myself in the shoes of management of a business would it really be better to be owned by a conglomerate? Lets say WB went and bought Graco(ggg) a favorite of mine and a really exceptional company. Honestly its a perfect fit for BRK. Right now Graco is like a big family, management can look at the incredible growth and feel proud, satisfied and eager for more of the same success. Once they became part of Berkshire they would no longer have a share price to be proud of, they would turn from being one of the most successful companies in history to less than 1% of a Giant that wouldn't even make the pages of the letter. Great companies dont want to be hidden in a conglomerate. I can just about guarantee the problems with culture would soon manifest. I think the future of BRK will be a dismantling via spinoffs if only to reinvigorate the love of the businesses remaining. I think it needs to be understood that in a post Buffett company the excitement of being purchased by the goat will be gone. That is not necessarily a bad thing even though it may be counter to what WB wants.

This one is going to be a terrible mess. The current track lines right up to Tampa and right along through Orlando. Looking at the barrier islands like anna maria, longboat key etc I just worry for all those old folks who live there. When we were there in February mentioned how vulnerable it all seemed. Just the fact that everything is connected by bridges and traffic was bad in a normal environment. The amount of neighborhoods that channel traffic through one little intersection and now the streets are clogged with junk from Helene. From bad to worse.

Next one looks like in has the Tampa Bay area as a possible landfall.

There is a newsletter "nates notes" his portfolio has basically killed it over 20 odd years as afar as I know.

Anyone notice some new sleep country advertisements. I dont watch too much TV so maybe they have been running the whole time and I never paid attention until the fairfax deal I also noticed they dumped the Canada in the name. Maybe a US expansion?

Glad you found value in the book. I always consider it as a good foundation especially for younger readers. Before you start reading Buffett and Greenblatt on up why not just get a feel for what the world of money is. Figure out where you stand, figure out where you want to be then get to work!

Another gulf system expected around October 5th as well. Really hope this does not form into anything. The damage must be in the tens of billions from this storm. In eastern tenn and western NC many bridges have completely washed away. Is it possible this is not a major cat? I dont really understand the insurance industry

Watching the aftermath of this storm is so sad to me. I really cant imagine having your possessions and memories just wash down the river. Not to mention the lost lives. Some videos of rapid mudslides and the floods hitting areas where people never expected to be in a flood zone is just terrifying. I wonder if the idea of a flood plain or flood zone will be expended as a result.

Slimming down my Aritzia position. I just sold about 20% of what I have after it creeped up to my 3rd largest position. Still very much a believer here, I do expect that after the 130% return this year we will have a better buy again. Even if only at $40 again. The earnings are in a couple weeks, the last Q was the bell ringer saying were back. I think this one will be the bell that says the story is still just as strong but the consumer has tightened their belts. I expect not great guidance.

Looks like the hurricane will be quite severe but making landfall in a less populated area. Tallahassee will likely have a lot of wind damage and Tampa on north up the coast will see major storm surge. Its fast moving so likely an abundance of damage moving inland. Atlanta is in the cone and will likely have a cat one or less but with tons of rainfall.

Appreciate it Eldad. They just cant help themselves I guess.

I fully realise that the past performance of the S&P beats gold. A successful business is there to make money, the metal is there to be money, so obviously the entity who's goal is to actually produce should do better over time. That said Gold has done admirably considering it just sits there and does nothing. I look at it like a insurance policy to government stupidity. On the tax side. How and why would taxes ever be paid on something like this. If my dad had left a roll of 100's in a drawer for me would that ever see the tax man? The relationship I expect to have with my children is nothing short of love and trust, we can live outside a lawyers agreement ment for a few oz of gold to each child.