Jaygo

I think advances in robotics will be just as important in productivity as AI will be. I have some machines that cost under 25k that now reduce my needed workforce by 1-2 people per day. Let’s call it 1 per day to be on the safe side. The kicker is that the machine is still producing the same outcome as before but with one man vs 2 or 3. these are still human controlled machines but with robotic or computerized features that really boost the bottom line. I am pretty sad about our society lately but productivity is a ramping up and to the right imo.

I didn't find his tone to be overly dour. Perhaps just cautious and a bit nostalgic for the days of KO and AMEX, higher returns and possibly fewer headaches. Moreso I think he is making a statement on the juxtaposition of men and women working their asses off in freezing weather, scraping bodies off the tracks only to be manipulated by the Washington ( politicians, ESG dicks, WS ) elite with a stroke of a pen from the comfort of a taxpayer funded office. I think the same goes for the capital and ingenuity of BHE and the like. If you want to unfairly punish the utility sector for political points enjoy sitting in the the dark, we will take our new capital elsewhere. The utility is mandated to provide power even in the most remote places but when storms, or fires hit these hard to service remote places the utility is on the hook for damages. People bitch when the power is out, bitch when the bill comes due and now litigate for freak accidents in areas where power lines probably shouldn't have been in the first place.

Great letter. The part about the utilities and their troubles further confirms my fears we are living in an atlas shrugged era where the builders and most productive of society are drowned by the egotistic, power hungry and overly “moralistic” assholes who while claiming to care for the masses will degrade all of our lives and livelihoods by their “popular” decisions. rant over, I love WB and brk.

Does brk break down the revenue or are you getting the numbers from another source?

I was doing some work on Terravest last night and was thinking that another line that would fit was rail tank cars. So a quick market search puts Union tank car company as the big dog in the industry. Well that’s a Marmon subsidiary. They build, repair, certify and own/ lease hundreds of thousand of tank cars. so I started a little digging on marmon and am just amazed at that company. They have businesses in everything, tons I didn’t know I know and see in life. The filters for my water softener are filtrex, the work cloves I buy from Lowe’s, the special rubber coated screws I used on my shop roof are atlas, a marmon company. my point is that if Marmon alone is a treasure trove of businesses what is the rest of Berkshire? We see the numbers at quarters end but are we really getting the whole story here. I believe that the book value of brk is now completely useless and this thing would be worth multiples if these businesses were separated. what would Marmon be worth alone if little Terravest is now at one billion. Im not saying a breakup is needed or warranted but simply that brk is a value stock compared to the market as a whole.

Agree, I think the real economy warrants around 2.5 to 3 max. Businesses and individuals should be able to borrow for productive needs without the fed worrying about asset prices inflating. Maybe if we got rid of deductibility of interest for financial assets it may limit a bubble in the markets but allow for a productive economy to borrow. I’m seeing large equipment loans at ten plus percent. If that’s the case for long the productivity of the economy will suffer imo

This seems nefarious and it is definitely strange. Is someone at Morningstar on the take?

Ok, toro company would be really close here too. I’m going off my iPhone stock list without cheating. It’s fun.

Is that Starbucks?

Key West Painkillers from a place called the tipsy rooster. Amazing drink, definitely going to enter the Christmas time drink repertoire. it’s cinnamon infused rum with coconut and pineapple plus some other stuff. Nutmeg on top. Lots of ice. Tastes like heaven.

Were down in Key West Florida. Its absolutely amazing, tropical and friendly. This place really shows how incredible the USA is. Top Geography of any country in the world by far in its diversity. The road down is a fun drive too. Ive never met so many active elderly with a buzz lol. Id say its not exactly the best place for kids but mine are doing just fine so far.

have you read the wager by Grann? Also about shipwreck. i love audio books but this on has some maps and pictures that are nice to reference.

Heading to the Florida keys with the family. Any ideas for 6-9 and 30 year olds.?

Ill throw my hat in the ring, if anything just to get to look back and think how naive i was in my 30's I am going to go with Aritzia I would anticipate that they would add roughly 4-5 stores in the US per year bringing them level with the number of Canadian locations. I think 5 years time will also bring us a few international stores most likely in the UK and Australia but Korea or Japan would not surprise me either. So lets say a total of 142 stores. Today you pay just shy of 25 million CAD a location. 2.8 Billion in cap vs 114 stores. (lulu goes at 95 million USD a store fyi) on that basis with some store valuation increases and 25% more stores I could see a double easily from here. I think we will have decent growth in stores, decent growth in SSS and decent growth online. my wild ass guess would put 2029 sales at 4 billion CAD and i think we will have a higher valuation so I could see a double through this point of view as well. My expectation is we get a change of heart about Aritzia, not the 60pe stupidity of 2021 but the businesslike understanding of a modest grower that is very profitable. The stores are generally built from cashflow as has been the several hundred million dollar distribution centre in the Toronto area so it kind of always looks like they are not making money. Management say the average store recoups its cost in under 18 months and some far better so I do like those economics. Lets say for fun they get to 400 million in earnings, a little boost from going international, get some more adults in the room and maybe a better CFO I dont think an 18 pe is too much to ask and a 7.2 billion CAD valuation. Call it a 20% a year cagr. just like a nude you cant scrub from the web, here's my retail stock pick for perpetuity.

It was dealraker with the inspirational account of his accounts.

Hey finally some else who likes terravest!

I am in no way giving advice, it was a curiosity about the setup and logic. Prem and Warren have done well but as warren showed with his bet with the hedge funds that most do not beat the market. Another way of looking at it is if an insurance company with cheap float provides a leveraged investment return than even a market average will beat the market in a way.

When you say corporate account, are you referring to a Canadian corporate hold co? if so are the taxes not basically the same as personal these days? Not to get off topic but I’m eager to implement some housekeeping with my books and have been looking at investing through my operating business and taking lower personal salary.

It’s part of my kennel portfolio. Gladly bought right around 90 at the end of September. I’ve followed it for a long time though so I recognized it instantly. I’m not sure about the lawsuits but the patented products are in everything.

3m?

Financial wealth is derived from owning assets, true wealth comes from having enough financial wealth to live the life that gives you purpose. Dealraker this is some inspirational stuff. Thank you.

I’m in a similar boat. I work in the construction industry and have architectural experience from my early days. SSD is miles ahead of mitek imo. Not in connectors but all the places ssd is going in infrastructure is really amazing. that said I sold my cost basis last week after 7 years. It’s simply too expensive vs the other adjacent dive looked at recently.

A question is why do these companies not just index. if the business of insurance is good why have a side business of investing. There are some funds that do 20% a year. Why not leave it to those guys or the index and focus on your business of insurance? we all have dogs but when I look at ffh it’s seems like some real mutts. Blackberry, recipe corp with the crappiest restaurants, shipping companies, I’m not a billionaire nor so successful people know me on the streets, so instead of criticizing I’m just really curious about it. I actually think brk is the same and really hope Greg starts to unwind the investments portfolio so it makes up a much smaller part of the business. Using the proceeds to shrink the equity at these very reasonable prices compared to the greater market.

I'm looking at some beaten down real estate Artis REIT and Morguard north American real estate trust in particular. These babies are left for dead so do as the vulture does. I think Aritzia will shoot the lights out this holiday season and get back into the $40's ( 700 million CAD Christmas quarter is my high estimate ) or 13x earnings for a stable grower. A basket of home construction stuff. JELD-WEN, Builders First Source, Doman Building supply in Canada, and for the risk averse there is Richelieu If rates remain above inflation for much longer all the above will probably get kicked in the ass. I Kind of like the looks of Mako mining too but a microcap gold mine in Central America is just too speculative to sully the good Jaygo name on.

The growth in money supply should track the actual output of the economy. So population growth plus productivity growth. If we create too much money like during covid you are going to cause all sorts of disruptions in pricing as that money finds a home. Some get rich off of it while some suffer higher prices on what they buy without the increase in assets. I now have roughly 2 million in assets and 500k in long term dept, And I spend about 100k per year so my net assets probably increased by 40% to get me to the 2million, my depts are reduced in actual value by 40% devaluation of currency and my expenses only increased by 40k per year and will soon be absorbed by increases in income. I am neutral to positive in actual net worth, someone without assets took it on the chin and all those numbers on the things they want are bigger. The real winners of this bullshit are the highly levered asset owners just like always! The money supply increased by 40% and by in large prices of things like land, gold, perishables, profitable companies ect have gone up in price by roughly 40%. It takes time but that is what should happen. This is not inflation based on supply and demand or demographics. An example of real inflation is what we have in Single family homes where the supply is being constrained so the price goes up if you want to have that item is real inflation and not currency devaluation. I think Red Lion sees this and is leaning into SFH's since you have the tailwinds of supply and demand as well as the currency devaluation of dept to boost the potential returns.