Jaygo

I think more Para, Tsmc, hopefully some amazon, wouldn't be surprised to see visa too as it was sub 200 for while I guess chevron would have had some announcement but i'm sure he is liking the return of capital. I wish he would hunt in the Canadian market, our values are so much cheaper and there are tons of oligopolies.

These are the rust belt states. Japan ate their lunch in the 60-80s the eastern block and China afterwards. They are all east of the Mississippi and we’re river barge industrial states. I’m just surprised Michigan is not on there. Also places with a consistent winter season will always have lower participation rates. Cash for plowing is a thing and seasonal works is very much part of the system

I don’t buy de-globe thing. China has become a massive goods producer, why would they throw away all of that industrial capacity. Not to mention employed people don’t cause trouble politically. some critical items may shift but frankly we will never accept the pollution here that comes with mass heavy industry. gregmal sowing tshirts, parsad assembling iPhones. Nope not happening any time soon. We may have some bespoke furniture and specialty items that we demand American made but if it’s light enough to ship cheaply it will come from Asia for a long time.

Yes labour and productivity are the keys to a better life for all, rich and poor. I will never understand the government incentives to limit labour. income tax seems like the exact opposite incentive, welfare too. These programs need to be drastically changed or everyone will suffer.

Guys if you want to lower inflation go produce something that your neighbor needs. We have higher inflation now because people are lazy as hell and just sit around with their phones or push paper around. The government condones this shit for some reason. The last decade we had low inflation because poor nations were working their asses off for us. That stopped during CoVid. It is starting back up and inflation will drop. there is a video of a shirtless roughneck covered in drill mud working an oil rig. That bad ass hombre is the solution to inflation not typing on a forum or trading stocks back and forth with each other. sorry guys but if you are not part of the solution your part of the problem. Myself included. Look around society. Most people do not produce shit. also low interest rates should reduce inflation in a healthy free economy by allowing for increased production of goods. I’m hungover and am really part of the problem today. Sorry for the cussing .

The Amazon call was quite cautious. There are very few companies around that would have the instant economic data feedback that they have access to. I’d say the tone was not positive on the broader economy. It’s worth a listen imo. The fed ex call last quarter was similarly negative and provided a really good lens’s to view the broader economy. (Not bad but slowing) Im looking forward to this coming call to see if things have perked up. as far as I can tell the only things doing really well are the CoVid backlash stuff like travel and restaurants, fast fashion and the payment processors. ggg. Graco a company I know very well talked a very confident game yesterday but actually saw lower sales if the inflation was stripped out. Another note on that call was some serious hubris about squeezing margins up 3% in the North American contractor market. Unit sales are down and these clowns are taking record quarters. my bellweathers say this fall is going to be slow as molasses, time will tell. Invest as you wish.

Congrats Gregmal. That wins the "what are you buying today" Even though I dont even know your name (although i assume its Greg or Malt lol ) I am legit excited for you and especially your kids. I am human, so I'm also a bit jealous. Enjoy every minute of it!

Sold my small amount of FND today. I visited 5 stores last week, all but one were basically empty, so I expect I may get a better price down the line. IF that doesn't happen then oh well. My research continues current holding or not. The five stores were in the Carolinas, Virginia, DC metro and south Penn. South penn was a Saturday and it was definitely the busiest which tells me the homeowner is driving the bus not flooring contractors. I dont know how to process that information yet. It think it is probably a category killer and I anticipate buying back what I sold. The reason for selling is that a 25% gain in a month to me with limited cash inflows is too sweet to turn down. 2 grand USD profit for my tfsa in 19 business days. The money went back into BRK.b that acts as my savings account. If i decide to buy back after more research it will go into a taxable account that forces me not to dick around with trades.

It has a ways to go before getting into the territory of Johns Manville but you never know. 3M patents are in almost everything

If WB was a younger man I think he would go after 3M In the year 2000 they bought Johns Manville for a 2 billion, JM at the time was trading at 1.1 times sales and had a huge liability overhang due to asbestos. JM had started paying out to sick employees as early as 1933 but really got in trouble in the late 80's (this is where 3m is now) It took a decade for them to build up a trust for future liabilities and was hampering the companies ability to operate, Buffet saved the day by guaranteeing the company would stay solvent and the liabilities would be settled. The jobs were saved and the injured compensated. For this guarantee from buffet he paid 5 times earnings and was able to work out a deal to limit the future liability to something he could tolerate. 3M now has a huge liability overhang with the PFAS chemicals and looks like they are going to end up having to build out a liability trust as well. Ive seen numbers into the 100 of billions in liability to the groups involved. 3M's share may be as much as 30 Billion. The chemicals don't break down, great for keeping you pots and pans slick, shoes and carpets dry or food wrappers from degrading but not what you want bioaccumulating in your body. Scotchgard and Teflon are examples of the uses. The chemicals are literally in everything we touch and consume from clothing to the epoxy coating the inside of a can of beans. 3m is the poster child for PFAS but there are hundreds of companies who made and used them. Du pont was the inventor but 3M manufactured and distributed the majority of it. There is evidence showing 3m and others were aware of the bioaccumulation but not necessarily the negative health effects. If conclusive evidence is found that they knew of the health effects and tried to keep it quiet it may be lights out for 3m ( somehow tobacco and cola has survived ) 3M is in big trouble, but they also have 95,000 employees and 60,000 products that are used everyday and will not go down without a fight. A younger buffet with his actuarial genius would probably be licking his lips. Too hard pile for me but thought it was interesting since we all use 3M products every day.

DOO.to BRP is the maker of powersports equipment like skidoo, Seadoo, fishing boats and a whole host of other awesome gear. I grew up with these bad boys. They are category leaders in water and snow and in the top 3 for Atv / offroad Rumours of electric motorcycles as well as a further push into boating. Came public with a float of 118 Million shares and now 10 years later have 78 million shares out. Something about these Quebec industrials and their incredible capital allocation. Also pay a healthy dividend and are expanding through acquisitions all the while buying back half the stock. Pure cannibal.

I marvel at this even within the States. In NJ its $10 for a Big Mac meal and yea like $8 for breakfast. The dollar menu is now the $3 each menu. In Georgia or Tennessee? You can still get 2 1/4 pounders with fries and a drink for $5. Sorry Gregmal but this looks like it’s pretty widespread Same meal as in lower PA from the above post and today outside of Charlotte. Same price. also now I’m in DC. A lululemon shirt I bought two weeks ago for 90 CAD in Toronto was 88 usd in tyson corners mall companies are raking you guys over the coals as far as I can tell.

All i know is America is very expensive vs Canada. All prices (except fuel) are basically the exact same except our currency is 35% lower in value. You guys should be sale shopping in Canada. Both for products and investments. I would say that to come back in line you could see prices drop 20-40 % ( a recession / depression on paper ) just to get back in line with your friends to the north. Considering everything ive seen I am confident to say your inflation has gone from money supply increasing to companies taking their pound of flesh, why is Mcdonalds charging 8 USD for a breakfast meal when the Canadian version is charging 7 and change CAD. Mcdonalds canada has better coffee too. I see some pain ahead for the US markets and I will be allocating more investment dollars to Canadian companies. Better Value on paper and far more stability in earnings potential. If only we could find some unloved companies with Canadian expenses getting paid in USD I also see a path for further depreciation of the Canadian $ vs USD since your interest rates should stay higher longer than ours.

are you talking about MRG.un

I'm no political analyst but when you want to keep over a billion people from revolt you need to keep them busy. China needs American consumers for their own political stability. Link to a business friendly china article https://www.politico.eu/article/china-diplomacy-liu-he-europe-beijing-davos-world-economic-forum-xi-jinping/ China has exported deflation for 20 years through the Walmart's, Targets and Dollarama's of the world, that stopped during Covid. That engine of deflation is trying to get started again

This is probably best in the brk thread but since I opened the topic I will respond here. I don’t think brk has much key man risk any more. It might have headline risk when he passes but Greg is running the operations. Buffett is the goat and built a structure that wins in every way. Greg just needs to make sure the operating businesses are doing well. The investments will take care of themselves. Coke, apple, Amex etc don’t need input from anyone. If they sold all investments and shrunk itself via buybacks or a giant return of capital you would be paying under ten times earnings. Buffett in charge or not it’s a safe way to get into American business. I am interested in the leaps you mentioned but until investing is my day job I’ll let that opportunity pass me by.

If you look at our population pyramid we have the two biggest brackets fighting for the same stuff. This is why real estate is crazy, the older bulge are too young to move from their homes and the younger bulge are making babies and trying to buy homes. The pyramid will tell you everything you need to know if you know how to read it. in a decade funeral homes, aging related medicine and whatever people in their 40’s do will be the benefactors Since our pyramid is is pretty tame looking just know that every one percent is 3.7 million people. Or there are about 9 million more 25-39 year olds than age 10-24

so you are saying equities are best for that period of time? Long term i understand that equities are the best but i cant see anything short of bonds or treasuries do well during a period of deflation. I have a finite amount of capital so rather than ride out a storm i try and skip a bit of downside to generally capture more upside. This is usually just switching from US ETF's when times are good to Canadian ETF's when we slow down. This worked well the past few years Over the past month i have sold off a bunch of my Canadian dividend ETF's and moved into VSP but that wont work if we have any sort of deflation

Gimmicky title eh! I should really write a book. IN the event we enter into a period of falling prices over and above the stop in prices rising. Is there an asset class other than bonds/cash that will perform well? Everyone is talking inflation and I just dont see the causes lasting too long. The main causes have pretty much stopped. 1. The money supply was increased so prices should rise in tandem with those increases. Stopped 2. Workers were paid to not produce, that is extremely inflationary and has stopped for now. 3. People who were not getting paid or working before got a nice little boost of payments, this was inflationary in common goods like food and drinks, smokes and small discretionary. Stopped but could start again with UBI (god i feel like an asshole saying it, but Sin stocks here we come if we get UBI) 4. Assets inflated quickly due to interest rate policy taking even more people out of the workforce. 5. China and supply chain issues are healing slowly it seems. I'm not saying outright deflation is very likely but i could definitely see a period of a year or two where prices stop increasing and recede at the same time as interest rates remain above what the economy should bare. Why? Well an economy if left to its own devices is actually pretty simple. The more we produce the more there is for everyone and prices trend down as life improves. This was interrupted but that interruption is ending. 1. If we go back to pre-covid times the economy in north America was robust but certainly not a runaway train, healthy 2 % growth with interest rates probably belong in the 1-3 % range for our demographics. 2. All the talk of deglobalization is probably BS. If china doesn't want to play ball what are the population going to do? China has not shown much global aggression and has stayed regional in their ambitions. Chances are they would like to continue on their modernization and not upset the apple cart. They main concern for the CCP is the billion people who refuse to consume on our level, thus eliminating a internally funded economy, To keep the populace happy ( docile ) the people must be occupied and feel the wealth effect. (just like us) so my guess is Globalization is back and running in no time. My thinking is Continental North American focused growth stocks take back the drivers seat and we see a serious resurgence in TINA. In the interim I would expect a hell of a bumpy 9 months between the yay inflation is dead to TINA. A prediction worth the paper it written on is that we get back around all time highs by may, then the deflation creeps in and everyone panics until the rates get back to the 0 range. At that point any company that can show growth will be the place to be and we will have another decade like the 2009 - 2019 period of low rates and low to no inflation. As Mr. Dealraker would say "ramblings over coffee" Any ideas on what would perform best in a disinflation , short burst of deflation scenario?

Sorry i meant BBBY as in Bed Bath & beyond not BBY for Best buy. I understand the tax consequences but unless you own shares in a excellent capital allocator as well as a strong operator than the dividend is better imo. If you have a great company like Polaris industries, who are excellent operators, but not the best allocators. Their buybacks ramped at $150 but stoped at $ 80 id say the dividend would be better taxes or not. I guess I just want to be the one to choose how to handle our excess capital. Polaris is an exceptional company who defined at category for years with the polars RZR. they have 7x earnings since 2005, well they bought back 3 million shares at 21/PE and now only 1 million at half the share price and a 10PE. I want to own Polaris for their operating savvy and not the allocation. Alas I do not own it. With a dividend I could decide to drip in times like these and gather cash in times of 21 PE. I feel the same with Apple as I do Polaris by the way. Now you have DOO, a rival of Polaris has shown to be extremely astute with their capital allocation and operations so I am happy shareholder since I know they will buy stock hand over fist if the cycle turns like it seems it is now.

Thanks, I will have a listen

Dividends are probably better since we are the owners getting money that is rightfully ours. We can then allocate ourselves. brk, tjx,Azo, Home Depot bought back 12% of the shares in the gfc. Hell ya that’s how you do it! .These are excellent allocators so it’s better for them to buyback since they are far better investors than I am. There is good operators and good allocators imo, sometimes a company has both or just one. As a business owner I would like to decide if I have both or not. This blanket statement saying buybacks are better has persuaded good operators and bad allocators to the point that most companies now buyback at any price and that is detrimental to us, the owners. Bby is the obvious one here but there are so many that do it. Buy on the way up and stop when the cycle turns against them.

I personally like a bit of both. Dividends are great because it lowers your cost base. But not tax efficient when in a taxable account so I would say a 50/50 mix or the company should make it clear that they will not pay a dividend ever so we can place the business in the correct type of account. Brk sits in my taxable account, Tobacco in my Registered. The trouble with buybacks is most companies dont do them well. When done properly they are powerful, Autozone is the king in this regard. They have bought back 50% of shares in ten years. An important aspect is that they have consistent earnings and a relatively good value on the share price. I cringe when I hear every company doing buybacks last year since it is the "thing" to do.

FND Floor and Decor. 1.5% position so just a nibble for now. This keeps me interested and should the thesis remain but the stock get cheaper I will add. Its currently trading at 2x sales which is roughly the same as home depot while growing much much faster. Its a fast growing store count play same as my Aritzia thesis. Management expects to triple store count within a decade.

He has been saying that for a decade or more but in a many ways he is correct. China has had some pretty epic problems arise and worsen. housing affordability, property developer failures and a perverse investment culture. they are pariahs now siding with Russia geopolitically, xi basically getting rid of anyone who disagrees with him shows fear based decisions. Worsening demographics and foreign investment leaving. not to mention their treatment of minorities shows a moral collapse that I think has an impact on their society. looks to me like the thesis is coming to fruition just in a much more mannered way. Big headlines sell books and consulting gigs so Peter takes the shock and awe route with his pronouncements.