Jaygo

Sold the TQQQ, got my bounce

Strathcona Linemar Simpson Fairfax Canadian National Railway BRP ATS Automation Red Pine Exploration Thinking about calling all those pooches back to the Kennel ( not yet, probably shouldn't ) Nike (trade) TQQQ (trade)

Can you illustrate the amount of tariffs that are being collected by Canada at the expense of the USA? I know we have some that are meant as stop gaps for critical industries like Agriculture but as far as I am aware most items are free. I order parts and equipment from the USA and its generally without duties.

I think we are set for a decent bounce, maybe in the next day or two I still expect downward pressure on the Global markets as reality of sand in the gears of trade sets in but my guess is the bounce gets us back about 8% with some chop. Likely lower in the summer but not too bad. I think the talk of 40-50% is pretty silly. This is a dust up, nothing more. At the end of the day China needs the USA just like the USA needs China. The two combined cause stability in the populations. Americans get cheap shit and the Chinese get to put a billion people to work in factories rather than cause trouble. One hand washes the other. The only population that consumes enough is the good ol USA and that's not changing any time soon. Countries who have any idea of what's up will bend the knee enough to appease dear leader, he gets a win and everybody gets back to work. Does anyone really think China and Germany can increase trade without stepping on each others toes? there is no alternative to the USA trade deficit. Fake money for real shit, then the fake money becomes real once it gets to China, Europe or SE Asia. Then they spend it on more real shit like cement, vacuums and refrigerators. The Ponzi must go on!

That's where the problem lies. Money doesn't talk so loud during a conflict. Nobody needs Google in Cold war 2 or WW3. Amazon on the other hand would be highly valuable as they are the logistics masters. If there was a hot war with China the USA would start running out of material pretty quick. China can out manufacture almost every country on earth combined. The only way the US could hope to reach that ability is through a long, painful road to rearmament by onshoring all production to the Americas and get Canada and Mexico digging and assembling and the central Americans making the cheap shit like textiles. I have a deep seated fear this may be the play here and not just Trump being a twat. The above fear is is not my expectation as I believe China is far more rational, peaceful and just wants to keep the populace busy enough not to revolt.

The US cant build ships anymore because of many things and none of them are China related. Americans are great at building things that are profitable until they find out they can make more profit by getting others to do it for them. Sadly the best and brightest go towards making the most profit and that happens to be financialization of everything and they love making fun of the Europoors who actually build amazing stuff. Spain, known for beautiful women, sandy beaches, old churches and Iberian ham makes a better car for its domestic market than any sub 50k American cars ive been in. Why? Because SEAT prides itself in quality and a fair price VS 3$ dollars X 200,000 axles means I can spend more at Ricks with the big boss next Q. These tariffs are are brilliant in many ways because it may just get everyone head of of their asses. Adam Smith said that if two countries can trade their expertise they will both benefit. He never said get your adversarial trading partners to build your bullets for you if you so you can make an extra penny. American corporations sold out the American people, it has nothing to do with China, Canada or Cambodia.

Cubs I agree it is not Americas job to take care of foreign citizens. In the case of poor countries like Cambodia, Vietnam and Bangladesh the populace is incredibly poor and they are willing to sew textiles for us for practically nothing. We benefit enormously by this setup. This is not some charitable donation to the countries, they are just very low on the production line of global trade. The trouble with the Trump admin is they dont give a shit about anyone but themselves and possibly their voters. At the end of the day some poor soul in Cambodia is just as human as an American and pulling the rug from under them is simply a prick move whether is helps America or not. The worst part is it does not help America at all, so its just hurting others because they want to kick some dust up. If they had made an organised effort to bring valuable and security related production back to US soil I would respect it even if I thought it poor policy. The fact is they are hurting the most vulnerable on American soil and foreign soil with the retarded policy and having fun doing it.

Interesting was of framing it value vs growth mindset. But does he really embody the above? Everything ive seen so far has been less free market small government and more rules, taxes and government but just a different version of the previous. From what I see he isn't draining the swamp at all, he just kicked the alligators out and brought in the crocodiles.

Exactly. Slowing free global trade is bad for everyone. Some things I get, if you want to subsidize ship building or pharmaceuticals so they can be made onshore for a little more safety sure. But to go after every country on earth is just like jamming a stick in the wheels of trade. Everyone looses especially the worlds largest economy. The other thing to consider is the pain caused to other humans. Like sure a few points on the Dow sucks for us but what about the girl in Cambodia making $1600 a year? Let them eat dirt? When DJT was on Rogan I liked him, If I was American I would have voted for him. He sounded rational and spoke to causes that resonated with me. Now he is just a complete prick.

Trump is a zero sum guy. That is both stupid and counter to the last couple hundred years of human progress. Adam Smith has a book Trump should read. The idea of one human selling clothing to another far cheaper than he can make himself raises both sides. If trump thinks its wise to loose this position he's Fucked. The only time when zero sum sense is when production capacity is placed above economic efficiency in the hierarchy of needs is if a global war was expected in the next 10-15 years so my sincere hope is that Trump is as dumb as he looks and not playing 9D chess. If he is dumb the economy should be able to muddle through until he gets the boot or finds some rationality. If he is preparing for a global conflict where production of everything including textiles is required than stocks be damned buy gold guns and canned goods. Both situations are very bad for the global economy. Best case would be more global integration that raises all boats and hopefully keeps the peace.

Thank you for articulating something I have always suspected but couldn't really wrap my head around. You are bang on here. BRK and safe havens drop with a delay but they do drop.

Are you implying most of your portfolio is Aecon

Nike Filled. Probably could have held on for longer as I fully expect the textiles tariffs to be worked around or cooler heads to prevail. Happy to grab the 3.5% gain on a day like today

Nike is a trade and will likely sell with a 5% bounce I have a open order to sell for 58 Aritzia imo is a gift and it something I am constantly accumulating. Today was just a little extra sweet. I have bought monthly as low as 20 and as high as 60 in the past couple of years.

Aritzia and Nike

small adds to Aecon, Aritzia, Builders First, Soma Gold and a starter in TFII and CNR I recently sold half of my Junior gold exploration positions to fund this. Omai, Fortune Bay, GFG keeping the other half as it is all house money and I still believe in the shiny metal but less so in explore only companies.

The most fun zone imo College and Ossington area but that is a bit far from the financial district. I always enjoy Rodney's Oyster house for a casual place that is lively around Union station. That said I don't enjoy fine dining generally and much prefer warm, lively environments.

This was a really thoughtful convo and described many issues that I would have never thought existed. It paints a pretty bleak picture of the past 30 years for Canadian business and provides a roadmap of what we could achieve if we had a little more foresight. I recommend it to all listeners not just Canucks. The discussion of economics and different trade relations will be interesting for everyone. Low level jobs for IP transfers as a weapon of influence against Canada mainly by the USA and all I can think of is China is now a threat of doing this to the USA themselves. It also made me think of my portfolio companies who are directly affected by this. Ive invested in Velan banking on a takeover by a US company, now maybe i'm hoping it doesn't happen as a national pride thing. Linemar is also a collection of great Canadian manufactures in century long industries and would be a bread crumb for a US company like BRK. I personally know the owners of 2 and soon to be 3 Canadian manufactures who have sold production and Ip / design to US PE firms in the past two years. The brain drain is real, maybe we already are the 51st state and we just dont know it yet.

Looking forward to it.

Hey All. Just bumping this thread up for our American friends. My post above^^ Well I believe the train is parked in the station now. The dollar has fallen roughly 9% and the valuation of many of the companies listed has fallen on an absolute basis. The companies who had a more global footprint and were less effected by tariff talk obviously have performed very well. My immediate suggestion would be get familiar with the companies in Canada you feel comfortable with and start buying. Are we at the lows on the dollar? no clue but I believe we are close. Are Canadian's getting dicked around by a corrupt and or incompetent government ? yep sure are, but we will not go the way of Cuba, Argentina or Venezuela. Are the markets at the low? No, I believe we have more blood to let. Is it a major correction or not is to be seen but start your work now just in case. Are we as dynamic as the American economy? On paper the answer is no! In reality we are absolutely just as innovative and dynamic but much of our IP has flowed south through acquisition thus showing a productivity shortfall. I believe some policy changes, a little more national pride and a stronger Canadian dollar will reverse this flow. If you believe the teachings of Mr. Buffett and agree that a great company can withstand a few years of bad management than this is your opportunity. If you believe the "geography is destiny" thesis of many great geopolitical thinkers than you should understand that the North American landmass is distinctly suited to create economic surplus. Canada holds an exceptional position in the world pinched between the greatest consumer, protected ports with tidewater to the the Asian and European landmass and far fewer natural disasters than our neighbors to the south. We also have the invaluable ability to do absolutely stupid things and not piss everybody off that the current great super powers cant seem to figure out. I just spent 6 weeks in Europe, Peoples eye light up and have nothing but great things to say when you mention you are Canadian. Sorry Merika but ya hated over there right now! Anyway I love American's and befriend many here and in the physical world so I wanted to let you in on the secret that Canada is having a sale.

Yes its actually a scary thought. I'm talking my book because I like alcohol, both the feeling and the taste so in my mind I want it to be ok. Other chemicals, pills, drugs, ect I just didn't care for so they pose no risk. Boose is the big one for me and it needs to be kept in check.

If alcohol is so bad why are Spaniards and Italians living so long? they all drink, not heavily but certainly constantly. If I dont look at studies but instead look at the world around me I would say moderate including daily consumption of low ABV seems to be ok. Just dont pound Vodka or get shot, get hit by a train, try a backflip on a dirt bike, dont huff glue and you'll probably be just fine. Have fun Gentleman you only get one shot at this. Russians drinking vodka = bad 67.2 years male life expectancy Spaniards drinking red wine and beer = ok 80.4 years male life expectancy Czech, loads of beer = ok 79.9 years male life expectancy

Frankly I didn't expect the majority of them to snap back so quickly so basically the value I saw in September of 2023 surfaced quicker than anticipated. The results were quite good in aggregate and I am now trying to lower my cyclical holdings and repatriate my USD to Canadian as I see loads of value up here and less so in the US markets.

I used today's strong market to send these puppies out the door with wagging tails. The recap. Pretty, pretty good. My initial plan was to hold for longer but since the market is wobbling i'm getting an itch to ditch the fleabags and go somewhere safer. MMM - was the top dog. with the spin and USD strength i'm up about 100% DG - what a mutt, frankly its better to be lucky than good. Rode this Bitch from 110 to 145 then visited a store that was a hellscape and sold the stock in the parking lot. C - also close to a double inc divs MO - up about 33% but sold it earlier than I should have and bought Chevron BTI up about 25% HD up around 15% - honestly is a really great company but its time to move on. I like others much better AAP - this is was the weirdest one for me, its in an oligopoly that should do well, this investment is down from 57 to today at 38. the only benefit was seeing it in the low 30's at one point allowed some trading in another account and made a few bucks here and there but am currently out entirely. DIS - it should never have been allowed into since it did not pay a div. sold soon after the initial post and bought SBUX The new additions, about 11 mths ago I sold the above back down to 7500 and bought SWK, Newmont and PLOW with the proceeds, since then the newbies have disappointed. A monkey could have picked a better gold stock than Newmont. All in all it was a good exercise and the proceeds remain in cash for now. Maybe I will get a cat!

This whole crash is really just a rotation so far. I'm down maybe 1% on the year as I tend to keep most assets in Canadian small cap companies short of BRK, my Dogs and some housing stuff.