Jaygo

Dont forget that the psychology of many Chinese would still be affected by the disastrous policies and mass starvation in the late 50's and I would imagine most people are terribly afraid of a return to those days. Its like the people who grew up during the great depression who are hoarders and refuse to waste anything. My dad grew up on a dirt floor in the wreckage of the Spanish civil war. He would not waste anything, ever!, old food, no problem just salt it heat it and eat it., carpet, paper clips, even small pieces of paper had to be used over and over until you could not fit a note anywhere. I remember after college I threw pounds of old papers in the recycling bin, by dad made a comment and I brushed it off. Later that day I saw he had removed every paper clip from the bunch and stacked up all the papers that still had a white side. My dad was not a nut by any means, he was wealthy, hardworking and incredibly sharp, most likely the person with the widest breath of knowledge I have ever met. He did have some serious PTSD from his formative years in poverty and intelligence aside he once spent 4 hours cutting up an old carpet from a reno into rectangles to use as floor mats. We literally had shitty old purple carpets for our front entry mat my entire life lol. To turn the Chinese into a consumption led economy will be a very tough road ahead and could take generations. In the west we have an abundance that has shaped our patterns, stocks only go up, gas is cheap, food is plentiful ect. This is certainly not the case everywhere.

What one did you choose?. I'm looking for one as well. I thought about VTI but would prefer less holdings overall

Dim bulbs can be wonderful investors. Some people just see what's around them and know intuitively what is a good long term business. I know a guy who is a categorical under achiever and a bit of a bum. He recommended Facebook 3 months after the ipo, apple like 3000% ago, shoppers drug mart about a month before getting bought out. Lakeshore gold before 10x and honestly a whole bunch of shit I'm truly flabbergasted by. I doubt if he saw a balance sheet he would even know what it was. The guy has never left his hometown and if he acted on any of these stocks with conviction he could be a multimillionaire.

Its was predictable but also pretty tough to act on. My macro feels have been damn good the last few years, My equity picks not so much. I think we are in a period of perfect harmony between some consumer money still available for use, plus were lubed up and ready for higher prices so we are overjoyed to get some 2x4's at 3 bucks a pop again, ribeye's at 13 a lbs ect.. Now most companies are still making excess profits off the continued spend. Graco is a bellwether for me and their contractor segment has sucked for 6months. Pepsi the behemoth has grown revenue but not volume. I phone sales down 6% y/y. That tells me that some of us have cash and are doing well, lots of us in the middle class are starting to tighten our belts but its summer so f..k it! And im guessing a whole bunch are actively trying to cut spending and this is why volumes are down in many segments. Time will tell, id say the fall will bring back the vol and scary headlines.

My plan was always have 1/3 net worth in stocks, 1/3 in house, 1/3 in business equity It has been damn hard to keep up with our ex-urban Toronto house and now id say we are well beyond 50% in our home. The thing is without the real-estate growth we would be nowhere near where we are today since we started so small and with mostly dept. It started back in 2012, a small home for 325k, i put 60k down at the same time I had about 50k in the market. we sold that house for 850 and traded up in 2020 for 1.1 million. my neighbors empty lot just sold for 1.6 mill for the same 4 acres give or take a bit. There is no damn way I can keep up with that even though my savings rate is close to 40%. this past year we passed 800k in the market. In my example the house has out earned my wife and I and our investments after taxes. There is no way renting and investing will keep up with a mortgage and investing the excess savings. The leverage is just to important to ignore. I have given the same advice to my youthful acquaintances that something just mentally changes when you have a house and mortgage. For me all of a sudden I was an adult and had to put on my big boy pants, no more clubs, stupid purchases and wasting money. It was work, read, reno repeat for a long time and one day I realized i had become relatively wealthy and I can now see the snowball picking up speed. The 30k in dividends we get a year is now about the same as my after tax income back in 2012 lol. Real estate for the win if only to give a young a guy a kick in the ass!

Yeah he is doing great work and I am a fan of his show. Frankly i should have not said that. If you can’t say something nice, don’t say anything at all! I guess I kind of see podcasts as a placeholder for what’s hot and popular. BB has a discussion about FFH and it coincides with lots of COBF member buying FFH It’s was energy last year and lumber the year before.

Kiss of death, sorry BB if your on here lol

I’m having swimming pool quotes come in 10k cheaper than last year lol. I didn’t pull the trigger last year as a valuable contract was yet unsigned. Now I have a bumper year out to 2025 so splish splash. it’s not really deflation per say, but trades being less busy is taking some froth out of the prices that’s for sure.

Hi Viking. are you doing this through an etf?

Watering the weeds today. aritzia, smartcentres, small bits of each. Man I’ve had some real dogs lately. Woof throw in bti and most of my “best” ideas are on a pretty ugly slope in the wrong direction.

Yeah same with Florida. it’s a perfect way to look at it. With people living longer you have extended the age of downsizing / dying off. most boomers have the vitality to stay in the big houses and if they have a pool or some land it’s a great way to get the grandkids knocking. so here we are, the 28 year old couple are bidding against their peers for the housing their parents won’t give up. the dick in the feds, nimbys, green libs and the rest are raising rates, blocking development and generally making the family formation a real slog. go talk to a 25 year old male. I guaranfuckintee you he has lost money on pump and dumps, weed stocks or crypto ect cause they are all looking for a big score since they have no way of competing for the same goods with an honest living. They are demoralized because they see the writing on wall, pussy is relegated to their car or when mom and dad go to the cottage or work late or even worse her parents basement. I don’t know how long this will go on but higher rates will only make it worse.

These guys are either dumb as rocks or nefarious in their business. Raising rates makes inflation go up as it lowers production of most goods. With our demographics we need cheap money to keep raising our standard of living. Housing is going to keep rocking until the boomers die 10 years, 15 or more who knows but when you have the two largest age cohorts fighting for the same thing you get a lot of demand.

Thank you for the ideas, but if my TFSA and RRSP is already max contributed wouldn't that not work. I actually considered taking my TSFA selling all, paying the $ 170,000 of my mortgage and borrowing it back to refill the tfsa but My accountant said it would not be deductible in a registered account. So ive left the TFSA as is and borrowed from the house to invest in a taxable account.

I am doing this in Canada. It is referred to as the smith maneuver since I am using proceeds from my Home Line of Credit. Essentially the goal is to go from mortgage that is not a deduction to a line of credit that is a deduction. I started with $ 50,000.00 in VCE and for most of 2021 and 2022 the dividends were covering the interest. now not so much. This represents about 7% of my investable cash but I am willing to go up to about 25% over time. My basic rules are based on the fact that I can service the dept out of my own savings rates up to about $ 2500/month if it got to that point. last year I had a tax right off of roughly $2,200.00 so I saved about $800.00 in taxes. This year will be more since my rate is now %7.2 I

If I had tons of money I’d still stay here at least part time, my roots are here, my friends and most importantly my kids friends are here so they would want to stick around. at this point in life my priorities place my children and our relationship above everything else. Canadians bitch and complain with the best of them but it’s not a bad place to be despite what we say. just curious spek, where would you be?

Yep that just about nails personal wealth/desires. We live in a world of abundance and rich is what you make it. But we need to be honest with ourselves, flying private must be the tits! And I am not flying private rich by a long shot so therefor I am not todays rich.

Yeah it doesn't feel rich that for sure. I'm in a similar boat and let just say I chuckled as opposed to popped champagne! Plain and simple most of us are living in rat race type areas with lots of visually rich folks around making us feel like we still have work to do. I feel blessed and rich in certain areas and I feel like a popper when I turn onto my street or pick my kids up at pool parties lol.

This stuff is all so relative. Here in the northern burbs of Toronto I would say around 20 million. Some guy on my street has that much Parked in his garage and I’m over here with a mortgage and leaving the house at 530am every morning. When I was in Spain this past winter I’d put it around 2 mill or less in most places (not Marbella or Madrid) my number is 2 mill and no mortgage, I couldn’t care less about displaying wealth so that helps. I’ll be rich enough not to worry and poor enough my kids will still have to work on average I’d say 12 million is the new millionaire.

For what reason? Is a TRS a bet in a way? I guess I dont understand if there is a situation where the bank will lose and FFH will gain in this case.

By my understanding low interest rates should actually lower end prices to consumers overall as a proportion of their earning power. Cheap rates should equate to more production which should equate to a higher standard of living for everyone. the problem with ultra low rates is that is gooses asset prices and inequality so people look at it in a negative way. I personally think a 3% rate is perfect for North American demographics. I say lower taxes and lower rates will solve the inflation issue. also nimbys, the lazy, bureaucrats and generally whiny c.nts also need step aside so the real producers can do their work.

It turns out that after 6 months this was pretty much bang on. The good news is “I was right” the bad news is I did not act accordingly and basically held what worked the year before and has not worked this year to the tune of -7 on the year. the basis was an expectation of mild deflation and I’m sort of still leaning in that direction however less so than before. I do still think the real economy continues to turn down, in the market we likely have our highs by early summer and fall takes a tumble like so often has. Time will tell.

Looks amazing

I don’t think we should compare to brk as they are wholly different. Brk is the gold standard and should trade at a higher multiple based on quality and durability alone. I would roll 100% brk if I had to, I would not with any other company. What should this trade at. Is. 10% yield better. What would be a good comp in North America?

Sold half my GFL position. Basically doubled my money so I'm happy to take my original funds out.

These guys should just buy CNQ and forget about shale and exploration all together. I'm sure they have looked at Canada but our government is suspect so I get the hesitation. Long lived assets, tons of sunk capex and room for more, seems like a pure buffet play.