Jaygo

Artis reit. Ax.un in Toronto

Sold my cost basis in federal signal. A direct beneficiary of infrastructure and reshoring but 35x pe is a little much. The majority of the industrial segment is crazy expensive right now. I love the sector since I can understand it better than others but graco at 30x federal signal at 35x Tennant at 28x, Ingersoll rand at 42x and all the materials at 30-40x just seems nuts. Its funny when you have Linemar the maker of skyjack sitting there at like 9x and Oshkosh at 13x

According to a podcast recently it was Ted who bailed out home capital group. Small compared the gfc but still relevant.

sold my cost basis in SSD. Love the company and will keep the house money invested but id like to put the proceeds into adjacent companies that have better value.

not if everyone is doing it.

Inflation was not caused by a hot economy it was caused my money printing and policies restricting production. (Government policies and not animal spirits) Rates were brought in to help cool inflation but rather than fix the issue of production it likely slowed down those repairs as well as took some purchasing power away from consumers. if they drop rates I think we can say goodby to the recession and we will get back to the Decent but not crazy economy of 2019. this will really help China and Germany too by putting the consumer back in charge. Toss in a bit of near-shoring and we may just get those earnings growth numbers. The entire world is in recession bar the USA and a few other outliers. It’s all rates of the big dog

Yes simple is often better. But there are also traps that look simple but can be far more complex. maybe an easy example would be the growth of e-commerce vs the share price of container-board/ cardboard box companies. How have these not been a home run? West rock is one of the big ones and the share price is flat to down for 10 years. oil and war in the Mideast is another one that is just confusing.

Yes the action on ssnt is crazy. As my quick calculation came to buying at todays price and discounting the existing business and the dividend marks the newco at around 12biillion dollars. Kind of steep for a platform without a single acquisition. folks do love a story though. I bought purely to keep tabs so I don’t forget to dig deeper down the road once it’s up and running. as I mentioned above. 40% in five days would be great if I had bought any quantity.

Up 23% so far. Thankfully it was just a tracker so I wont get an ego. Nor much more than a champagne lunch for one. Anyway Brad Jacobs will be using this as a platform for his building products dist acquisitions. After reading the filings the owners of SSNT will only be getting 15 basis points of the new co and a 2.5 million dollar or 5% one time dividend. So the jump up in shares seems just news driven and will not be overly beneficial. The value of brad Jacobs entity to current shareholders is roughly 10 million or 20% of current cap. Is there a thread on Building products distribution? may be time to start one since Site, ferg, Building products group, richelieu have all done very very well and now we have one of the best acquisitors coming into the space.

I have never really had any sort of life changing gains. The highest percentage wise is Shopify by a large margin. Bought 20 shares pre split at around 105 and selling at roughly 1700 a few years later. Nice little boost to the tfsa but cant quit my day job. Most money earned is BRK with about 60,000 usd in gains so far. Thanks warren I think my excessive diversification is going to keep me from that until i learn options.

Bravo Rosie. Except on economist productivity readings. Canada's economy will never have the productivity rates of the USA and comparing the two is stupid. Canadian people as in individuals are most likely equally or even more productive simply because we are less obese (sorry) But for our economy as a whole the numbers will show less productivity. It is nearly impossible for the whole place to freeze over and remain in static productivity vs our friends to the south where half their landmass remains relatively unscathed by cold. On the rest of his ramblings id have to agree, the economy is hurting because interest payments and the prospective of higher payments is taking a lot of juice out of consumers. Lets not forget that the long depression of 1873 ( railroads, excessive immigration and real estate) and great depression (stocks and real estate) were caused by a debt fuelled asset booms and subsequent government intervention causing bust. Ouch Id wager that our dollar will crater to the lowest valuation ever in the next couple of years and canada will be the best place for Americans to invest without a doubt for the second half of the 20's, it probably already is but there will be bumps a plenty. If i was an American I would be studying the top 20 or 30 names to be prepared for a bargain basket. ill toss some names for those interested. There are lots of high quality midcap names that are very dynamic. The Kitchener, Cambridge, Waterloo area of the GTA and Ottawa to Montreal corridor is nurturing some incredible small companies especially in the smart industrial space and tech. The bond proxies like banks, utes and telcos are all very good as well due to the oligopolies that exist but since the dividends make up a lot of the total return and is not tax efficient for Americans they are probably less favorable. Equitable bank BRP Richelieu GFL Opentext, CGI, CSU Linemar, magna, ATS Smartcentres, Granite Reit, MEQ, MRG Thomson Reuters BN and colliers Terravest, Exchange income corp, transforce, Gildan Activewear Wajax and toromont There are many others but these are all pretty reliable and could be spectacular if we have a stock slump combined with currency appreciation.

Agreed. When you look at colliers ect. Kw seems like picking the runner up just because there is some history.

SSNT for a tracker on Brad Jacobs. On December 11th he is doing an announcement on his plans for the company.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/mapviewer/index.html?webmap=96ec03e4fc8546bd8a864e39a2c3fc41 Here is a map of major rail lines in NA. The permafrost in canada is on arch that stretches from midpoint Alaska to around the middle of Hudson's bay or about 2500km north of the bulk of the Canadian lines. Quebec that has abundant natural recourses and seems to have the will to exploit them has barely any rail at all. I think there is lots of room to grow track miles into Quebec alone. Quebec is almost 3 times the size of the state of Texas. The other amazing thing about this map is just how dominate the rails are. It is truly an oligopoly. From the map I cant help but lean towards the CPKC as the top dog with its stretch into the manufacturing regions of Mexico. Another standout is how the Eastern lines of Norfolk and CSX are so regional vs the big 4. Wonder if they will someday fold into BNSF and UP. CN announced that they are buying 270+ track miles of the Iowa northern railroad today btw.

Really enjoyable to read or listen to PZ. I would say that his quality has gone down a bit since become so marketable. I would imagine his difficulties lie in being invited to comment on just about everything now so he is bound to be more inaccurate. His long term focus is probably what is best to listen to and his short term ideas and view on current battles ect are to be taken for what they are, Soundbites. His understanding of history and geography is impressive and his ability to send his message to the public is better than most historians therefore he is very popular. The future is unknowable and the more we predict the more we are wrong. Tim marshal, Robert kaplan, Brzeinski are good too but dont have the personality that PZ has. I wish we could have had a long form discussion with a guy like PZ and Kissinger.

With the current government who may be considered business neutral to unfriendly we have about 550 billion in ongoing or planned projects for the next 10 years. Site C, LNG Canada, Wood fibre LNG, TMX, Coastal gas link all in beautiful BC wilderness. If CN has an economic project that is also needed by the local population and major projects I think it would go ahead. There may be overruns and some backlash but at the end of the day the Canadian government knows who butters their bread.

I hold CP and CN mostly because of a fascination with railroads, robber barrons and anything 1800's. Personally I hate trucks on the roads, they are unsafe imo and cause alot of the congestion we have. Rails may not provide the best returns but id bet they are one of the only industries that will remain in a similar state 100 years into the future. The companies could change but those rails and need for heavy transport is pretty static if our quality of life is to remain. The one thing id say for the Canadian rails is that i think we will build more lines. Northern canada has few rails (not including tourist lines) and lots of resources. I could see more track getting laid down in the centuries ahead. Think northern Quebec, Yukon, Ring of fire in Ontario ect more lines to Churchill port if it ever goes ahead.

Hey SD. I appreciate you are probably uncomfortable giving advice to strangers on the web, but just to help the discussion can you elaborate on this. What in your opinion would be a profitable way to navigate the next 6months?

When a big portion of the CPI increase is related to extra cost due to higher interest rates we have a pretty obvious case of the dog chasing his tail. Should they raise rates to combat inflation that is being caused by higher interest costs?

Just about every retailer is guiding down. I'm curious to see the united rentals, cintas, aramarks ect to see what they say. My guess is softness started this Q and the outlook is uncertain

The reality is they spend tomorrows dollar too but it was more about individuals or corporations saving in the economy building up resilience vs governments who spend all income.

Ordered it on thrift books last night. As well as a book about John a Macdonald.

Yes taxes are innately inflationary. Governments generally do not save like a populous would. All taxes are sent back out the door as expenditures. Often times to special interests and middle men unfortunately. When I bring in a dollar I spend 60 cents and save 40 for future consumption and strengthening of my families balance sheet, this savings give me and mine resiliency in hard times. When governments brings in a dollar it spends 100 cents. The only resilience in hard times is a governments ability to borrow.

A book about the Canadian Pacific Railroad. A quick read and entertaining if you share my love of railroads, economics, history, politics and adventure. The building of the railroad was about as ambitious and difficult a project as any in history, on par with the pyramids and space travel in its absolutely ridiculousness of an idea, shedding of economic realities and nation building potential. It is safe to say without the CPR Canada would be a mostly maritime country never expanding past lake superior to the west. The main take away is just how awesome Canada is. We have a continental country touching 3 oceans all without the wars and terrible history of our southern neighbors or the indefensible colonial empires of history. Granted there were a people here before who's population was going through a population decline and cultural decimation all the while the settlers poured in around them. For the original natives the result was less than satisfactory and death, starvation and humiliation was common. Canada of late has a shame surrounding the founding of the country and treatment of the first nations but in my estimation we as a whole acted with the best intentions and morality given the times. This is compared to the barbaric Spaniards, Americans, Belgians, Dutch, French and Japanese. We were less colonizer via the bullet and more fat guy who sits beside you on a plane and steals your armrest, his sweaty arm pushing you further away to create a void which is quickly filled. Canada as it is known today comes from that expanding railroad and the European settlers who filled in along the line. A book id highly recomend. https://a.co/d/6G4lPpO

Not sure id agree. I have a fairly large mortgage . Single income family of 4 At 2.5% mortgage rate I dont even think about it. New truck at 2 or 3% sure. At 7% mortgage or 10 on the truck its a bigger nut and I spend less on everything. Since my spending is another mans income and on and on we have an economic slowdown. Large depts with low rates is not an issue, its only an issue with rising rates. I think people only devote to paying down dept when it gets above the economic rate of interest. (imo that is anywhere above 3% these days)