Castanza

Receiving threats of violence while you live in your gated community is one thing. Living in the apartment next door or the next block over to the house you raided the previous weekend is another. You're really over emphasizing the symbolism of the masks in my opinion. The Cartel or other potentially connected crime organizations aren't going to target a US judge or some other high level judicial demagogues because it brings a whole new level of shit down on them. But they will target the families of the officers and agents doing the actual raids. Some of those ICE agents could also be undercover during their day job. I know two individuals who have done undercover work for the FBI and local police. It was a major pita to do work because they had to watch everything they did in public and make sure they didn't go certain areas, shop at certain places, etc. Masking or even erasing your identity is quite common in law enforcement and military work. Today its easy to identify someone. Agents that have this volume of work might as well hand out their business card if they aren't going to take measures to protect their identity. I guess I'm not really sure what you are suggesting the purpose of the masks is and why you want them to not wear them? Do you think the masks are allowing them to treat targets worse or are you hoping agents are easier to be targeted in their private lives?

I had my roof completed two years ago by a local company. All White and African American citizens. Cost 16k for sheeting, shingles etc. The Amish would have done it for 14k. The argument that we should allow illegal immigration because it gives us cheaper prices is a bad argument. To me it reads, "we only support these people because they provide us with cheap labor and goods." Most people support legal immigration, but if you're truly claiming to be an advocate for these people to have a better life then you should also be advocating for them to make wages on par with their prospective citizen counterparts and actually have a better life. Otherwise you're really just putting glass ceilings in place and really saying "you're only this good"... Most people live a very insulated life in America and have no idea how much "muck" there is out there for people below the average income. @LC @Sweet I do agree with LC that even if illegal, the individuals do have the right to due process and are protected from unreasonable search and seizure. I have no problem with the masks...it's personal protection for the agents families. I also think many underestimate how difficult the job is for police and these agents. It's a massive undertaking. There is no perfect way to handle this and many mistakes will be made. But that does not mean it's not a worthy endeavor. Walk in their shoes before judging them on how things are handled. As a society we cannot have our cake and eat it to. Americans either need to digest illegal immigration (no thanks) or accept higher prices and support a more efficient immigration system. The later is a much better solution. If you really care, then globally you should be supporting better working conditions for all of our trade partners subjective to their cost of living etc. But as a country it is okay to have a border and have laws protecting those borders. Every modern nation on earth has these laws. If I overstay my stay in Canada (90 days) I will be arrested and removed. America has gone through many of these situations and we will recover as well. A really interesting one is the post WWI era (Adam Hochschild has a really solid book "American Midnight" on these years that covers a really wild period most people don't know about)...some others are during and post WWI, McCarthyism, Civil Rights, post Agrarian society, post Vietnam, now....and the list goes on) Growing pains with an upward trajectory Suggestion: If you're going to talk the talk you should be walking the walk. And that means more than just cutting a charity check every year for your tax deduction.

I’ve been working through some Still Austin bottles. Sips very well for products aged only 2 years. The Cask Strength Bourbon has been very good as well as the Bottled in Bond Blue Corn.

Which ones have you been drinking? I have a bottle of Miyagikyo Single Malt that has been very good. I’ve tried the Hibiki 17 year and it was very good. But a lot of Japanese stuff is just kinda weird tbh. Hard time knowing which is quality and which is just marketing garbage. Everyone seems to like the Nikka Coffee but I’m not a fan tbh.

No thanks

lovely….another war without congressional approval…

Cyber warfare, which was already done to one of their nuclear facilities in the past.

Mhmm and then you would wake up the next morning, put your pants on one leg at a time and go to work. this is why personal finance is important as well as developing yourself. Stop equating "life outcomes" to long term rates and the stock market....The important things in life do not revolve around money or politics.

LC's response (no disrespect to @LC, he's genuinely a good dude) there is no rationality. It's pure tribalism. Pick your side and ignore the issues it might have. I've been tuned out of politics since April and honestly have no idea what's currently going on. But what's always scary is the ability of intelligent rational individuals to throw the baby out with the bathwater in order to justify their personal views. January 6 is an excuse for others on opposing sides and vice versa. That's how the spiral happens. I have no opinion other than the government has been, is, and will be a a complete mess for the foreseeable future. Back to me regular scheduled programming of no social media, gardening, working out, fishing and playing with my son.

CPRT

That's a big mental hurdle to learn early in your investment career that pays handsomely down the line. Took me awhile too

ROE, ROA, NPM, debt, P/S etc. all better currently. Primarily though I like the TAM better. Not into the media angle of Lumine. Topicus seems like a more durable business long-term with better runway.

Don't have much to add and I'm not sure anyone can add anything with confidence of being correct on outcomes. It's been easier to just ignore all this macro political bullshit and get on with life. Made a bunch of money in the process (so far)....But when discussing Canada and their military efforts we should differentiate between service members and NATO spending. Canada was what the second largest force alongside the US in the Middle East? Maybe 3rd to the UK....either way, they were there and not just in soft support but front lines door kicking support. Being as it was just memorial day recognition is due in part. A lot of throwing the baby out with the bathwater going on these days.

If your goal is 6% why not just lock it in with a 20yr treasury at 5% and then allocate something towards a dividend index fund with better div growth that will likely outperform any individual company long term? SCHD as an example.

Trimmed a hair of CCJ (+40% in 1 month) bought some CPRT and GOOGL I was Stopped out of UNH at ~313 last week Brings me to +28% ytd Down to ~3% cash

This is a board of active investors....The only one being complacent here is you....you're in you're early 20's talking about oil as if man just discovered it; and theses that could easily take a lifetime to play out if they happen at all! Now you're bitching about the last 20 years of US equities because.....?

Definitely not enough info out there to take a big position on this imo. New guidance and more clarity from the CEO would be welcome. Optically it's cheap, but I couldn't tell you anything about the business or the future of the business. I just find it hard to believe that a company operating pretty well for a decade all of a sudden has a severe systemic issue.... edit: I think something has to change at the political level long term for this business model to be material impacted. But what are the chances there? Healthcare lobbying is still extremely high (300M)....and you recently had Bill 35-48 completely die even with support from both sides! Increased claims are still likely due to covid suppression to a degree. Could be some risk with up-coding for sure but how big and what's the fine if there is? Edit2: Took profit on Calls (30%) rolled it into shares and hedged with puts....lets see what happens

Again the market is proving in less than 1% FCF growth at these prices. 2024 dip was mostly due to the hack. Analysts EPS growth estimate through 2029 is ~15% We don’t know 2025 EPS projections so let’s use 2023 numbers of 24. Average PE was ~22 the last decade which seems high. Napkin math… Even if you use 2023 EPS numbers ~24 with say ~8% EPS growth at 17x PE you’re looking at like ~9-10% CAGR share price through 2029. Could all that change with some big fraud case or change to the business fundamentally? Yeah I guess…but you state longterm healthcare industry outlook is bleak and % of GDP is unsustainable. Not sure that matters over the next 2-5 years. I doubt much changes just my two cents. Massive established company with high rates of insider buying, a first time miss like this and a decade+ of solid growth in revenue and FCF per share. A fraud case with no evidence (yet) and examples of past cases won. All for 50% off. does it need to be more complicated than that?

All we have to go on is analyst projections…which look to net out to ~13-15%. 2025 bad yeah (outlier)…..can you demonstrate what has fundamentally changed with the business? Because so far it just seems like a barrage of headlines with 1 bad Q and a criminal investigation which doesn’t give any insights as to who what or when happened and what the potential consequences are. They won the last trial so would a company double down on fraud? Idk, but what I do know is the market tends to overreact in the short term. So far the “issues” (going on limited info) don’t seem systemic to the business. The punishment of the share prices seems to outweigh any fine or ruling they could see near term. To me it’s worth an option play as you don’t get massive sell offs in big names like this all too often. btw I’m up 20% on calls as it stands now. Plenty of room to make money there. Size accordingly

At mid $200s the market is implying almost zero fcf growth… DCF puts it around mid 400s

It’s at 5 year lows and you have management buying solid amounts of shares. Why not just keep it clean and buy calls as far out as you can? I picked up a handful when this went sub $260 with a 500 strike for 2027…it’s cheap fundamentally and probably is enough time to get this sorted out.

I have an HSA through UNH/Optum and it is managed through Betterment. The options are similar to those found in most 401ks. I have mine in an S&P 500 fund.

My figures were YTD. A few of my positions are on fire ex (CCJ, BX, APH, TOITF, NTDOY, ASML, MSGS, JOE etc.) , plus FFH is at all time highs and I did two turns on the M calls and only have house money left in that play. I quickly raised cash once all this started going on and have deployed most of it in short order over the course of the last month. End of April was prime time with quite a few solid names. Could all change tomorrow with the stroke of a pen. Either way I feel better positioned now with current holdings moving forward both long term and short term cost basis.

Different strokes for different folks. Cities are cultural hubs and NYC is top of the pile and likely will be for a long long time. For every person who is fed up with city life you have another itching to “make it in the Big Apple”. Things ebb and flow. My wife’s cousin moved to NYC and lives on shoe strings and bubble gum. Sells balloons, paints murals and does commercial acting. Literally barely makes it. But she loves it. Plenty of free things to do around the city and if you have a solid friend group with a similar lifestyle then I guess that’s enough. Personally I wouldn’t want to love there unless I could “take more advantage” of what NYC offers from a financial point of view. My elderly neighbors kid is a surgeon and so is his wife. They live upper east side right along Central Park. They had a kid same time as my wife and I so when they come to town we usually get together. Their lifestyle doesn’t sound bad at all including the opportunities they have with their kid. It’s what you make of it and what resources you have to leverage your opportunity imo. Family is also a big reason a lot of people don’t move. I heard something recently that made me think more about that. For people who move away from family and see their parents once a year I think a lot of people look past potential of only seeing your parents 10-15 times before they pass. I’m close with my family so I wouldn’t want that. But some don’t mind I guess. I’d much rather have a lcol base and travel more